Oso planning to go pro
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/09/23/companies-shed-workers-paid-dividends-after-getting-fed-aid-panel-finds-420537ELI5?
There were a couple of ways that the federal government intervened to prop up businesses during the beginning of this economic downturn. The most visible way was the SBA loans that were approved by congress via the CARES act: PPP and EIDL funds. PPP and EIDL money came with acceptable use stipulations. At first you could only use PPP money for payroll, but they expanded that to match the EIDL, which is basically "any business purpose is fine."The CARES act also authorized the Fed to buy corporate & municipal bonds. Big problem, if you care about small business, with buying corporate bonds is that they're only issued by very large up to gigantic corporations. Another big problem with stimulating businesses that way: There are no stipulations if you took the Fed's money. So... to heck with it. You are running a giant corp, and your success metrics determine your compensation. It is absolutely in your best interest to issue a ton of debt at an ultra low rate to raise a bunch of money. The private market will buy because it's backstopped by the federal gov't now. Then you cut operating costs by firing as much staff as you can stomach. Boom, your stock price pops, you get your bonus, and your shareholders + BoD are happy with the job you did. Business as usual with public companies, honestly. I'm no economist, and most of this is from memory so I'd appreciate corrections that anyone has. Here's a quote from Nate Tankus that I had to look up:> Of course, the nature of explicit interventions are changing. Both the Corporate Credit Facilities and the Municipal Liquidity Facility have had very few purchases, but for different reasons. The Corporate Credit Facilities have provided such a strong backstop that private markets have provisioned all the liquidity qualifying corporations need. On the other hand, the Municipal Liquidity Facility is priced so unfavorably that only Chicago has entered the facility’s lone transaction. Edit: Looks like businesses were doing stock buybacks after having taken PPP money as well. As long as they didn't use PPP money for stock buybacks it isn't against the rules. It does mean, though, that undeserving companies took PPP money. Shocker.
The president has at least three risk factors that we know about (weight, age, sex). You have to assume everyone at the debate is at risk based on what we know. Has there ever been this much election uncertainty? Does this get the stimulus through? I feel like Heisenberg.
Don't forget a 4th, low-income.
Federal Bank: Economy won't recover until virus is under controlThe U.S. economy will not recover until the coronavirus is under control, said Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.“This is not about politics -- it’s about confidence,” Kashkari said during a Wednesday webinar held by Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce, the state’s largest business association.Kashkari’s overview of what’s ahead was not encouraging, and he called on Congress to provide more support for small businesses and people who have lost their jobs because of the pandemic.It will be six months to a year before a vaccine is widely available, he said, and until then, people will be wary of going to restaurants, movie theaters and sporting events.Furloughs are becoming permanent job losses, he said, and bankruptcy filings by businesses are beginning to increase.“If thousands and thousands of businesses go bankrupt, this recovery is going to be much slower,” Kashkari said.
Trump tweets that he will no longer negotiate on a second stimulus until after the election.His precious stock market immediately collapses.
I don't understand his political calculus here.
Crash and burn?Take everyone down with me?Take my ball and go home?
I think the Senate also plays into this too. This would have to be bi-partisan to pass there and a significant bloc of R's doesn't want a significant stimulus there for fiscal reasons. If they jam it through McConnell may not be the next Senate leader or minority leader. I think in his mind the Judge impacts the election and the stimulus doesn't -- which as we know is the best way to influence Mr T.
I'd lean the other way, in that I think McConnell and the Senate Republicans very much want/need a deal. There are incumbent Republicans in some tight races (Ernst, Collins, Tillis, Garnder, McSally) and this would be a huge missed opportunity for them to win over moderates and suburban voters.
I'd lean the other way, in that I think McConnell and the Senate Republicans very much want/need a deal. There are incumbent Republicans in some tight races (Ernst, Collins, Tillis, Garnder, McSally) and this would be a huge missed opportunity for them to win over moderates and suburban voters.McConnell doesn't give a flying you-know-what about Trump. In fact, he likely hates him. McConnell cares very much about retaining control of the Senate, and this wouldn't seem to help that cause.
Nothing I said disagrees with your take except that I think they are betting that focusing on the Judge will get them more votes for those senators. Whether or not this is correct is to be seen. McConnell tried to pass their own version of the stimulus and it was a disaster--that shows you a bit of how important they think it is (i.e. they can't do it alone).
There is absolutely no reason they couldn't have passed a stimulus bill and seated a new SCOTUS justice. They are not mutually exclusive activities.I agree with Pak and others that this hurts several GOP senators who hope to keep their jobs.