How high could we go?

[SaveOD238]

Seeding wise, I'd be perfectly happy with a 10 seed, and it would suck if we rose to an 8/9.  However, if we beat Notre Dame and Louisville and win 2 games (vs winner of #12/13 and vs #4) in NYC, could we go as high as seven?  Aren't two of the 8/9 games going to be in milwaukee?  If we fall in the right spot in the S-curve we could get bumped up to avoid playing at home.

[boyonthedock]

win the big east tournament this team could go as high as a four.

[TallTitan34]

I think we could get up to 9 but I'm hoping for an 11.

[avid1010]

Anyone have any statistics to back up why they wouldn't want a lower seed.  I know every year we hear about the upsets at certain seeds, but I'd still have to believe the lower the better % wise???

[MauraDay]

I'd be happy to make the Dance no matter what seed, but would rather not have the 8/9 slot as they play #1 in the second round.

[MHMUFAN]

I think a 6 seed would be as high as I'd want them to get....but until the season plays out.....anything at this point would be ok.

[TallTitan34]

Anyone have any statistics to back up why they wouldn't want a lower seed.  I know every year we hear about the upsets at certain seeds, but I'd still have to believe the lower the better % wise???

I guess I'm looking more at the second round than the first round when I say I want 11.  I would like to see the statistics though, behind each seed.

[6Under20]

http://accuscore.com/ncaab/articles/bracket-advice-how-to-pick-the-perfect-bracket/

hard to read but gotta go...



Historical Advancement (by Round)
 
Seed
 1st Rd
 2nd Rd
 3rd Rd
 4th Rd
 5th Rd
 6th Rd
 
1
 96/96
 84/96
 69/84
 42/69
 23/42
 14/23
 
2
 92/96
 60/92
 44/60
 21/44
 10/21
 4/10
 
3
 81/96
 48/81
 23/48
 12/23
 8/12
 3/8
 
4
 76/96
 41/76
 14/41
 9/14
 2/9
 Â½
 
5
 66/96
 35/66
 5/35
 4/5
 2/4
 0/2
 
6
 66/96
 35/66
 12/35
 3/12
 2/3
 Â½
 
7
 62/96
 19/62
 6/19
 0/6
 0/0
 0/0
 
8
 44/96
 9/44
 6/9
 3/6
 1/3
 1/1
 
9
 52/96
 3/52
 1/3
 0/1
 0/0
 0/0
 
10
 34/96
 17/34
 7/17
 0/7
 0/0
 0/0
 
11
 30/96
 11/30
 4/11
 2/4
 0/2
 0/0
 
12
 30/96
 16/30
 1/16
 0/1
 0/0
 0/0
 
13
 20/96
 4/20
 0/4
 0/0
 0/0
 0/0
 
14
 15/96
 2/15
 0/2
 0/0
 0/0
 0/0
 
15
 4/96
 0/4
 0/0
 0/0
 0/0
 0/0
 
16
 0/96
 0/0
 0/0
 0/0
 0/0
 0/0
 

[Henry Sugar]

http://accuscore.com/ncaab/articles/bracket-advice-how-to-pick-the-perfect-bracket/

12-seed
30% of winning on the first day
If you win the first game, there's a 50% of making the Sweet 16

11-seed
30% of winning on the first day
If you win the first game, there's a 1/3 chance of making the Sweet 16

10-seed
1/3 chance of winning on the first day
If you win the first game, there's a 50% of making the Sweet 16

9-seed
>50% shot of winning the first game (odd)
Almost no chance of winning the second game

Odds don't really get better until you hit a six seed, where your odds of winning on day one are about 2/3 and you have a 50/50 shot of making the S16.

Based on that, we'd be roughly ambivalent about a 12 seed or a 10 seed, would be slightly worse off with an 11 seed, and would curse a 9 seed.

Not like the math really matters though.  Jesus wants Marquette in the Sweet Sixteen.

[muballer10]

I think this is a year where, unlike all others, we could be surprised by the higher seed we get. If we win out, that puts us at 23-10 and 12-6. As mentioned a lot last year (in a bad way), the committee likes to look at the last 10 games, games in which we would be 8-2 (assuming winning out, 2-1 in the tournament). We got a 6 seed last year with 24-9 and a much publicized 1-5 slide towards the end (along with a PG injury). I do not think that it is out of the realm of possibility that we win out, win 2 in the BE, and get a 5 seed.

Having said that, its obvious that 8 and above are much more likely.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Gents....let's just get in.  We have potentially three straight games that are all winnable or we could lose.  I'd hate to go into Selection show Sunday losing at home to Louisville, Notre Dame and potentially a St. John's (at MSG) or UCONN. 

Let's get one of these next two first.

[thanooj]

Jesus wants Marquette in the Sweet Sixteen.

AWESOME!!!!!!!!!

[dwaderoy2004]

Gents....let's just get in.  We have potentially three straight games that are all winnable or we could lose.  I'd hate to go into Selection show Sunday losing at home to Louisville, Notre Dame and potentially a St. John's (at MSG) or UCONN. 

Let's get one of these next two first.

if you can project ahead and say we could lose out, why can;t we project ahead and say we'll win out and then have a little fun and speculate on possible seeding.  I just don't see the need to interject your negative opinion in a thread that was created to speculate on the most positive outcome for the season and tournament.  Could we lose out, sure.  But talk about that on a different thread.  Name it "How low can we go?"

I think we can max out at a 5 seed if we win out and go 2-1 in the BEAST tourney.  4 seed if we win the BEAST tourney, no matter what we do in the last two regular season games.

[AZWarrior]

Here's the data presented a different way, with commentary.  I agree with the previous posters that 10-12 is better than 7-9, just as long as you get past the first round.   

NCAA Tournament First Two Rounds

Here's a look at how seeds have performed during the first two rounds of the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

Seed.......Round One......Round Two
#1...............96-0...............84-12
#2...............92-4...............60-32
#3...............81-15.............48-33
#4...............76-20.............41-35
#5...............65-31.............35-30
#6...............66-30.............35-31
#7...............60-36.............18-42
#8...............44-52...............9-35
#9...............52-44...............3-49
#10.............36-60.............18-18
#11.............30-66.............11-19
#12.............31-65.............16-15
#13.............20-76...............4-16
#14.............15-81...............2-13
#15...............4-92................0-4
#16...............0-96

Here are a few thoughts.

I’m guessing the distribution of teams is a high peek with a long downward slope. In other words, the difference between a #1 and a #3 is probably about the same as between a #5 and a #12. Since many brackets use points by seed—geometric scoring for a non-geometric—this makes some lower seeds much better bets.

I hate to admit this but for a very high likelihood, it’s really a 12 team tournament. I know we all like the Cinderella aspect of the tournament, but the odds are very much against the underdogs.

In the 24 years since the field was expanded, 21 of the finals winners and 20 of the losers were ranked #1, #2 or #3. I’m not advocating a change. I’m just pointing out that the dividing line seems to begin at #3.

You’ll also notice that some seeds are pretty choice locations. For example, #12 has a decent record against #5—even better than #11 against #5, and close to #10 against #7. Whenever a #12 wins, it’s often reported as a big upset, but it’s really not. On average, more than one #12 wins each year.

After that, #12 plays the winner of #4 versus #13. They actually have a winning record in the second round. A total of 16 #12 seeds have made it to the Sweet Sixteen.

Compare that with #8 or #9 who have always had to play #1 in the second round. The lesson is that the longer you avoid a top three team, the better. Of course in the tournament, you’ll eventually meet one.

[LON]

I think this is a year where, unlike all others, we could be surprised by the higher seed we get. If we win out, that puts us at 23-10 and 12-6. As mentioned a lot last year (in a bad way), the committee likes to look at the last 10 games, games in which we would be 8-2 (assuming winning out, 2-1 in the tournament). We got a 6 seed last year with 24-9 and a much publicized 1-5 slide towards the end (along with a PG injury). I do not think that it is out of the realm of possibility that we win out, win 2 in the BE, and get a 5 seed.

Having said that, its obvious that 8 and above are much more likely.

They will no longer be looking at the last 10 (12) games and will evaluate the entire season.

[dwaderoy2004]

it's not an official criteria.  But they do look at it and it is listed in each team's data sheet.  Just like they list Sagarin ratings and efficiency stats in each teams data sheet.  The panel can consider whatever data they want.

[Hards Alumni]

if you can project ahead and say we could lose out, why can;t we project ahead and say we'll win out and then have a little fun and speculate on possible seeding.  I just don't see the need to interject your negative opinion in a thread that was created to speculate on the most positive outcome for the season and tournament.  Could we lose out, sure.  But talk about that on a different thread.  Name it "How low can we go?"

I think we can max out at a 5 seed if we win out and go 2-1 in the BEAST tourney.  4 seed if we win the BEAST tourney, no matter what we do in the last two regular season games.

Everyone knows that on this board there is no room for optimism.. only realism (aka pessimism mixed with some statistics).

[ChicosBailBonds]

if you can project ahead and say we could lose out, why can;t we project ahead and say we'll win out and then have a little fun and speculate on possible seeding.  I just don't see the need to interject your negative opinion in a thread that was created to speculate on the most positive outcome for the season and tournament.  Could we lose out, sure.  But talk about that on a different thread.  Name it "How low can we go?"

I think we can max out at a 5 seed if we win out and go 2-1 in the BEAST tourney.  4 seed if we win the BEAST tourney, no matter what we do in the last two regular season games.

I subscribe the bad ju-ju, karma, don't count your chickens until they are hatched philosophy

[speri]

#7...............60-36.............18-42
#8...............44-52...............9-35
#9...............52-44...............3-49
#10.............36-60.............18-18


Wow, that's odd.  A #10 seed has historically advanced to the sweet 16 50% of the time after an opening round win, while the perceived better #7 seed has only advanced 30% of the time.

[flash]

If we win out and win the Big East Tournament I could see us getting a 3 or 4 seed, that would make us 24-9 (12-6).  We went 12-6 last year and we got a 6 seed.  But last year I think we were penalized by our horrific finish to the season and Dominic James's injury.  I am hoping we get a 10 or 11.  I would hate to get stuck with a 8 or 9 seed because we would probably have to play either Kentucky or Kansas in the next round.  Yikes.....

[Benny B]

The lesson is that the longer you avoid a top three team, the better. Of course in the tournament, you’ll eventually meet one.

Unless you're Wisconsin.