Scholarship table
Mr. Market has lost his mind.Good luck.
82, do you follow Jim Sloan on SA? Always a good read, and he had a piece out today looking back not only at 1918 but also similar "sudden stop" events and their impact on the markets. Interesting stuff.https://seekingalpha.com/article/4350047-things-different-in-1918-comparisons-2020-uncover-crucial-question?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=jim-sloan-things-were-different-in-1918-but-comparisons-with-2020-uncover-a-crucial-question&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-1
Never underestimate the Fed and their money printing machine. Toss in a bit of FOMO and you have a relentless bull recovery. I’ve gotten my teeth kicked in the last few weeks disbelieving it. You can see how manipulated things are right now. Buying frenzy overnight, then a listless drift throughout the day.“Pinning” major stocks on Friday is a common practice by market makers to limit risk in open option positions. Often near big round numbers where open option interest clusters. You can normally get a sense by late afternoon on a Friday. NFLX can’t break away from 425, BA sticking to 130, TSLA to 825, etc... but lately it’s gotten obscene, you can predict some of the larger name closing prices by noon CST, with strong accuracy. What that tells me is that the invisible hand that moves the market does its business and then gets out (not like the Fed buys all day, nor would funds piggybacking it), and then an otherwise undecided, low volume, listless market gets corralled rather easily by MMS. You’ll see stocks move up with the S&P or DIA then suddenly not budge even when indexes push up or down. It’s gotten pretty ridiculous, more so than I can ever recall seeing in the last 5-10 years.
Just wondering, has anyone changed changed their asset allocation in their long term investments for retirement. I am a stogy Vanguard investor who was about 70/30 stock/bond in index funds. I had no problem dollar cost averaging through market corrections. I recently flipped to 30/70 and am wondering why I am 30% in stocks with little upside and lots of uncertainty ahead.I still think stocks will be higher than they are now in about 10 years when I plan on starting retirement, and "stay the course" will prevail, but it is going to be an interesting ride.
If your time horizon is 10 plus years out and you're pretty sure stocks will be higher then, then why not stay fully invested in a portfolio that is appropriate for your risk tolerance. Figure out where your risk tolerance lies and then invest accordingly. Re-balance periodically to sell when things are good and buy when markets go down. Stay invested, don't try to time the market. There have been many studies done that show the reason individual investors underperform the markets is because we let emotions drive our investment decisions. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball and know that I'm not smart enough to time the market consistently. I've been managing money for about 20 years now, this is my 3rd recession, and they've all been painful and scary, but each time our advice to our clients has been the same. Don't panic, this too shall pass and the markets will eventually continue to do well for us in the long-term. Keep in mind that if we go back to 1950 we have had 10 bull markets and 10 bear markets. The average length of the bear markets has lasted 1.3 years and has an average cumulative loss of 36%. The average bull market has lasted 5.9 years and has an average cumulative total return of 184%.
I had a bad feeling when I made the switch since the Vanguard approach has worked well. The issue is that I am a scientist and think that another wave will hit when the seasons change. I can deal with economic cycles just fine - pandemic uncertainty not so much.My thinking is that I would like to restore my asset allocation, but will do so gradually once a certain amount of time passes (I am not really targeting a level on the S&P) - hopefully a mass produced vaccine will be on the horizon by next spring.
You’ll be fine. Even with a second wave. The Fed has made it clear they will continue to buy and backstop the market until things are good again. Powell blatantly said that a Fed injection is an alternative to a vaccine in the near term.
CCL is a ballsy buy, rocket. I hope it does great for you.
at $13/sh it might have been a bllsy move, but they did have the table set nicely with a lot of cash on hand what better way for people to get out of the city and go on a cruise, eyn'a? up 22% or so today! also marathon oil, boeing, fastenol, home depot and P & G have been long holds for me. yes, i have some stinkers, but these guys are holding me. along with family dollar(bought at $70) GE, another long hold from $6 making a comeback
Nicely done, sir.Generally, the market is absolutely out of its mind right now, totally unsupported by fundamentals. But hell, I'm enjoying the ride. Might even start doing some selective selling next week if skyrocket continues. And if it goes the other way to match the actual reality, and we have another crash, I can do some buying (though that's unlikely with the Fed now going full tilt).
I enjoy reading all these experts. I'm retired, been there done that. I have a young friend just out of college investing in video games and making a killing, ha. I'm far from wealthy, I live well. House paid for, apartment in Italy, life is good.Had a professor in grad. school who said that the wealthy never invest in the market. What?I'm talking wealthy, not us. They invest in T bills and land. Simple minded, perhaps. So, I "gamble" with a few stocks for fun, for cocktail conversation. The rest is in cash, T bills. So if I ÷ my burn rate into my principle, I'm covered until I'm 94. I'm 77. I spent many years in actuarial science, and that is my approach. The trust officer would like a little more action, ha. You're welcome, I doubt you will take it.
Interesting take on wealthy people. The wealthy individuals I know (20 million plus net worth) invest mostly in stocks, etf’s, etc.One of them was just telling me yesterday they bought around 150,000 shares of NTG around $1.15 and it’s currently up to $23. Granted the reason it’s at $23 is because they did a 10 to 1 stock split. I guess everyone’s risk tolerance is different, though.
Those who have monetary wealth are normally invested in larger investments like private equity offerings and real estate. They also have a wealth manager. They’re not online attempting to day trade stocks. 😂
This guy is day trading online. He says he made $5 million in the last two months and is now the greatest day trader of all time. Oh, I also read that his periscope live streaming of him day trading all day has a larger audience than CNBC.https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/im-worlds-greatest-day-trader-barstools-dave-portnoy-epitomizes-retails-takeover-rigged
The above recs I made back on March 20 now up an aggregate 73%. Of those, I'd still get in on AMRN, GNPX, SAVA, AQST, NVTA. (All under $17). I wouldn't expect a lot of movement up in near term for any, but over the course of the next year these have strong liklihood of delivering a 2x return aggregate.
Do the wealthy invest tons in land/real estate? Absolutely. In T-bills? Probably. Do they avoid the stock market by and large or all together? Not a chance