Ranking next year

[Tugg Speedman]

Ok this is way early to talk about so save the criticism as we will do it again after the season is over.  That said, I was thinking about it after reading the PT article about Buzz and the words of love from Bilas when the game day crowd was wrapping up the day (Bilas gushed about Buzz and said we are a S16 team) ...

Assume the following:

* Buzz is back
* Vander is back
* Otule is back
* No major contributors/recruits transfer (the oversigning works itself out)
* We end the season with no major injuries

All of these are reasonable assumptions so, can we be preseason top 5?  Heck we still have a chance to be top 10 this year if we win both this coming week and make noise in the BE tourney.

I guess my question is not whether we think we are that good to start next year top 5 but weather writers across the country think we will are that good to start next year top 5.  Or what do we have to do in the next three weeks to be top 5 preseason next year?  I says finals of the BE tourney and S16.

Thoughts?

[hairy worthen]

Ok this is way early to talk about so save the criticism as we will do it again after the season is over.  That said, I was thinking about it after reading the PT article about Buzz and the words of love from Bilas when the game day crowd was wrapping up the day (Bilas gushed about Buzz and said we are a S16 team) ...

Assume the following:

* Buzz is back
* Vander is back
* Otule is back
* No major contributors/recruits transfer (the oversigning works itself out)
* We end the season with no major injuries

All of these are reasonable assumptions so, can we be preseason top 5?  Heck we still have a chance to be top 10 this year if we win both this coming week and make noise in the BE tourney.

I guess my question is not whether we think we are that good to start next year top 5 but whether writers across the country think we will be that good to start next year top 5.  Or what do we have to do in the next three weeks to be top 5 preseason next year?  I says finals of the BE tourney and S16.

Thoughts?

Given the lack of respect we have had in the past, I would guess it would take a final 8 or final four appearance. I think we can get in the to 15 or so if we make sweet 16. If the team wins early next season I think they get in the top 5 fairly quickly

[ATWizJr]

Really?  Let's just enjoy this season.

[Tugg Speedman]

Given the lack of respect we have had in the past, I would guess it would take a final 8 or final four appearance. I think we can get in the to 15 or so if we make sweet 16. If the team wins early next season I think they get in the top 5 fairly quickly

This is the nut of the question ...

Goose said in another post that Buzz is no longer a raising star ... He is just a star.  Is that the thought across the country?  If so, with what we are returning, the class coming, and a star coaching them, then top 5 is possible.  No?

[Blackhat]

Top 5 preseason would probably happen in '15 if the frosh are a big jump up in talent and they get seasoning.

[hairy worthen]

This is the nut of the question ...

Goose said in another post that Buzz is no longer a raising star ... He is just a star.  Is that the thought across the country?  If so, with what we are returning, the class coming, and a star coaching them, then top 5 is possible.  No?

I hope so. Buzz is getting more and more recognition. I am not sure. I am enjoying this year, bit really excited about the possibility next year.

[tower912]

Throw in a deep run where Vander, Jamil and DG all star, have them all return (along with Buzz), and.......a top 5 ranking is still not possible.    PG questions prevent that. 

[nyg]

First Vander should be back, if he goes then it is one of the worst decisions made by an MU player in decades.

That being said, I believe you have to wait a few months in order to conduct a comparison of the other programs and what their early losses/seniors will be.  It started already with Shabazz yesterday saying he is leaving UCLA.  Will Anderson follow? Then you have Otto Porter, Trey Burke, Zeller and Olapido, Ben McLemore, Marcus Smart, entire Kentucky team, Sulimann, Len, Carter-Williams, etc. just as examples. Some programs will take major hits, some will just re-load.  Give the question a month or so and re-visit.

But for the sake of it now, probably in the 15 range, due to lack of PG and no preseason respect. 

[bilsu]

What we are ranked at the start does not really matter. What matters is although we are very talented in positions 2 through 5 is that we have no proven point guard.

[chapman]

Go deep this year.  That's what is remembered when preseason rankings are developed next year.

[forgetful]

Throw in a deep run where Vander, Jamil and DG all star, have them all return (along with Buzz), and.......a top 5 ranking is still not possible.    PG questions prevent that. 

Agreed.  PGs drive the team, we are not going to be ranked top 5 before we play a game if there are questions at PG.

[martyconlonontherun]

Agreed.  PGs drive the team, we are not going to be ranked top 5 before we play a game if there are questions at PG.

I find that bs. The rankings are going to be mostly based on tourney success and incoming recruits. If are elite 8 and Duane Wilson and JJj are climbing up the rankings, they won't care we don't have a clear starting pg.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Too early to predict that, but if we can perform as well as we have this year with a team I didn't think would be very good I can't wait to see what we can do next year (assuming all of the current juniors are back).

[brewcity77]

As many have pointed out, it would probably take a Final 4 to start the season top-5. Maybe Elite 8 if we were dominant in our games and lost a close one to the eventual champ. I don't think we start top-5, but I do think we will be there by December and have a good chance of staying there most of the season, especially if we start the new conference.

[dgies9156]

Top 10, maybe.

Top 5 -- huh, if we make the final four, maybe.

Top 5 -- Yes, if we win the NCAA this year.

[Goose]

I hope we end this year ranked. Next year is a long time away.

[Dawson Rental]

You make dgies9156 look like a real piker.  While he's just looking past the BET to the NCAA tournament, you're looking past the BET and the NCAA tournament to next year.  If you were a Cub's fan, you'd looking to their next World Series.

[Blackhat]

Top 5 preseason is simply great publicity.   Our name sprawled on all the national b-ball magazines' covers,etc.  There's some value in it.

[geps]

PG a big question. Who is it, Wilson? My guess we'll be 19th preseason.

[ATL MU Warrior]

PG a big question. Who is it, Wilson? My guess we'll be 19th preseason.

Somewhere between 15-20 no matter how we do in the tournament.

I have a hard time believing we'll see top 5 at any point, but would be thrilled if we did.

[Tugg Speedman]

Somewhere between 15-20 no matter how we do in the tournament.

I have a hard time believing we'll see top 5 at any point, but would be thrilled if we did.

15 to 20 is most likely our ranking out later today.  So, if we think next year's team is pre-season 15 to 20 then we are saying that next year's team is no better than this year's team (as measured by relative ranking).

[CTWarrior]

Somewhere between 10 and 15

[ATL MU Warrior]

15 to 20 is most likely our ranking out later today.  So, if we think next year's team is pre-season 15 to 20 then we are saying that next year's team is no better than this year's team (as measured by relative ranking).

You are forgetting about all the other teams in the country.

[MU82]

15 to 20 is most likely our ranking out later today.  So, if we think next year's team is pre-season 15 to 20 then we are saying that next year's team is no better than this year's team (as measured by relative ranking).

"We" aren't saying any such thing because "we" don't have votes.

At least 50% of next year's ranking will depend upon how we finish this season. Probably more like 75%.

[Tugg Speedman]

"We" aren't saying any such thing because "we" don't have votes.

At least 50% of next year's ranking will depend upon how we finish this season. Probably more like 75%.

This is week 17 of the season and we will be ranked 15 to 20 (out later today).

Last year's week 17 IU was ranked 18.  Week 18 last year IU was ranked 15.  IU went to the S16 last year and no further.  IU was preseason #1 this year.  At a minimum, IU showed you do not have to be FF to be preseason #1 as many here believe/suggest.

Why not MU making the top 5 preseason next year?  This year team is no better or worse than last year' IU team.  As others have noted, 2 through 5 we will be about as good as anyone in the country (if all the assumptions in the first post happen).

[MU82]

This is week 17 of the season and we will be ranked 15 to 20 (out later today).

Last year's week 17 IU was ranked 18.  Week 18 last year IU was ranked 15.  IU went to the S16 last year and no further.  IU was preseason #1 this year.  At a minimum, IU showed you do not have to be FF to be preseason #1 as many here believe/suggest.

Why not MU making the top 5 preseason next year?  This year team is no better or worse than last year' IU team.  As others have noted, 2 through 5 we will be about as good as anyone in the country (if all the assumptions in the first post happen).

Indiana went to the Sweet 16 last year before losing to the eventual national champions. They returned almost their entire team for this season, including Cody Zeller, a consensus All-American and PoY favorite.

Marquette has had a wonderful season and hopefully still has a month of wonderfulness left. And that's the point. If we get to the Sweet 16, we'll be a top-15, maybe even top-10 team going into next season. Having said that, if you can find a consensus All-American/PoY favorite on our roster, you have far better vision than I do!

I wasn't saying Marquette can't be ranked in the top 5 going into next season. It could happen, especially if we get to the Final Four this year. All I was saying is that Marquette fans can believe we are the very best team in history, but that won't affect the ranking because, unfortunately, we're not the ones doing the ranking. If we go deep into March -- or better yet, into April -- and return everybody who is expected to return, we will be ranked very high going into 2013-14.

[MerrittsMustache]

Marquette has ZERO chance of being ranked in the top 5 going into next season.

Indiana, Kansas, Duke, Syracuse and Louisville all have higher rated recruiting classes than MU, all are currently ranked higher than MU and, most importantly, all have more name recognition than MU. This list doesn't even include Kentucky and North Carolina who will likely be given the benefit of the doubt by a lot of voters too. MU will likely open the season in the 15-20 range and at the end of the day, it really doesn't matter much.

[BCHoopster]

Marquette has ZERO chance of being ranked in the top 5 going into next season.

Indiana, Kansas, Duke, Syracuse and Louisville all have higher rated recruiting classes than MU, all are currently ranked higher than MU and, most importantly, all have more name recognition than MU. This list doesn't even include Kentucky and North Carolina who will likely be given the benefit of the doubt by a lot of voters too. MU will likely open the season in the 15-20 range and at the end of the day, it really doesn't matter much.

MU will be ahead of Indiana with 4 starters leaving, Kansas loses top 2 players, Syracuse loses there backcourt, yes, Louisville might be #1 and Kentucky #2, with NC in the Top 10 but
so will MU if they have Otule, Gardner back, Duane Wilson should have all the shots he wants from the top of the key as that shot is wide open, he has range, no reason MU shoud not
be in the Top Ten.  Also, Georgetown will lose Porter.

[MerrittsMustache]

MU will be ahead of Indiana with 4 starters leaving, Kansas loses top 2 players, Syracuse loses there backcourt, yes, Louisville might be #1 and Kentucky #2, with NC in the Top 10 but
so will MU if they have Otule, Gardner back, Duane Wilson should have all the shots he wants from the top of the key as that shot is wide open, he has range, no reason MU shoud not
be in the Top Ten.  Also, Georgetown will lose Porter.

Indiana has the #3 recruiting class coming in to go along with last year's top 10 class. Kansas and Syracuse both have top 5 classes coming in.

MU is a top 15-20 team this year that will lose their PG but you honestly think that Otule, Gardner and the #55 recruit in the country will be enough to get MU into the top 10 to start the season? I'm not saying the team won't end up in the top 10 or even be #1 at some point in the season. Who knows? But to say they'll be ranked in the top 10 to start the season is just plain ignorant.

[kmwtrucks]

I think if we only lose Trent and Jr we would possibly be Top 10.  I agree we would not be top 5.  It depends what happens the rest of the way.  We win out and win 1 game in Big East and 2 NCAA we would get some hard looks in the TOP 10. 

[martyconlonontherun]

I think if we only lose Trent and Jr we would possibly be Top 10.  I agree we would not be top 5.  It depends what happens the rest of the way.  We win out and win 1 game in Big East and 2 NCAA we would get some hard looks in the TOP 10. 

I think we would need 3 wins (elite 8) to get serious consideration for a Top 10 spot. Then again it depends who we beat and what our national ranking going into the tourney.

Basically, there is no way we move up after the season. There are too many good teams with better young talent. We either need to be in the top 10 rankings by a deep run in the BEast tourney or finish in the top 8 of the ncaa tourney to have a shot. I think our magic number is six more wins this year. Split them however you want.

[Tugg Speedman]

I'm not saying the team won't end up in the top 10 or even be #1 at some point in the season. Who knows? But to say they'll be ranked in the top 10 to start the season is just plain ignorant.

My sense is the writers realize that they have undervalued Buzz the last few years.  They now finally get it.  So, I'll bet they will "fully value," if not overvalue, MU next season.

Also, the polls are out and we are 15 now.  If we win both road games this week, we might move up a spot or two (only because the history suggests a team or two in front of us will lose).  Make the finals of BE championship next week, which is not that much of a stretch, and top 10 (as in 10th) in two weeks is not out of the question. (side note, Jake hits the shot against UWGB and we are 10 right now.)

Now that Buzz will no longer be undervalued and this might be a top 10 team in two weeks, no way our presason rank is less than this year's end of season rank.  How can this team be 15 now and the writers say 15 to 20 next preseason?  Our preseason rank will be higher, not lower.

[MerrittsMustache]

My sense is the writers realize that they have undervalued Buzz the last few years.  They now finally get it.  So, I'll bet they will "fully value," if not overvalue, MU next season.

Also, the polls are out and we are 15 now.  If we win both road games this week, we might move up a spot or two (only because the history suggests a team or two in front of us will lose).  Make the finals of BE championship next week, which is not that much of a stretch, and top 10 (as in 10th) in two weeks is not out of the question. (side note, Jake hits the shot against UWGB and we are 10 right now.)

Now that Buzz will no longer be undervalued and this might be a top 10 team in two weeks, no way our presason rank is less than this year's end of season rank.  How can this team be 15 now and the writers say 15 to 20 next preseason?  Our preseason rank will be higher, not lower.

Because Marquette is not a blueblood, has no current national star players, has no big-name national recruits coming in, will be losing 2 starters, teams ranked below them will get more national pub and have higher ranked recruiting classes and many writers probably view MU as "top 15 by default" this season.

Look, I hope that MU goes wire-to-wire #1 next season. I just don't see any way they'll be ranked as high going into the season as many on here believe.

[Tugg Speedman]

Because Marquette is not a blueblood

This year preseason

#4 tOSU
#5 Michigan
#6 NC State

They are no more blueblood that MU

has no current national star players

This year, yes.  Next year see Blue, Vander he will be a BE preseason POY and possibly on a National POY preseason short list.

has no big-name national recruits coming in

Yes no top 10 players but the class is top 5 to 7 depending on who you listen too.

[MerrittsMustache]

This year preseason

#4 tOSU
#5 Michigan
#6 NC State

They are no more blueblood that MU

This year, yes.  Next year see Blue, Vander he will be a BE preseason POY and possibly on a National POY preseason short list.

Yes no top 10 players but the class is top 5 to 7 depending on who you listen too.

OSU, Michigan and NC State all fit into the categories of having "national star players" and "big-name national recruits."

I like Vander as much as anyone on this board, but he's not going to be on the "short list" for National POY coming into next season.

[Lennys Tap]

Because Marquette is not a blueblood, has no current national star players, has no big-name national recruits coming in, will be losing 2 starters, teams ranked below them will get more national pub and have higher ranked recruiting classes and many writers probably view MU as "top 15 by default" this season.

Look, I hope that MU goes wire-to-wire #1 next season. I just don't see any way they'll be ranked as high going into the season as many on here believe.

Last year we finished the season ranked #9. We lost 37.4 ppg, 13.2 rbs and 5.2 assts from that team and added two recruits whose were ranked around 90 and 130. We're now rated #15 and lose 16 ppg, 7.6 rbs and 6.2 assts. We add 3 top 60 4stars and one first team juco AA to the mix and should have Todd Mayo for the entire season. I think we squeeze into the the top 10 preseason next year.

[AirPunches]

I'd guess 11. They usually put a few undeserving blue blood teams in there which will push MU out of the top 10. I wouldn't be surprised if they were anywhere from 11-20 though. It really depends on who comes back from other teams and what not.

[MU82]

This year preseason

#4 tOSU
#5 Michigan
#6 NC State

They are no more blueblood that MU

This year, yes.  Next year see Blue, Vander he will be a BE preseason POY and possibly on a National POY preseason short list.

Yes no top 10 players but the class is top 5 to 7 depending on who you listen too.

I'm a Vander fan. But he's not gonna be preseason anything if he doesn't get back out of single-digits and lead us somewhere these next few weeks.

[Tugg Speedman]

I'm a Vander fan. But he's not gonna be preseason anything if he doesn't get back out of single-digits and lead us somewhere these next few weeks.

So Vander's projection for next year is an emotional response to the last game and not the 25 that came before?

Because you seem to be saying if he explodes for 25 tomorrow night against Rutgers he is back on the list.

[Galway Eagle]

This year preseason

#4 tOSU
#5 Michigan
#6 NC State

They are no more blueblood that MU

This year, yes.  Next year see Blue, Vander he will be a BE preseason POY and possibly on a National POY preseason short list.

Yes no top 10 players but the class is top 5 to 7 depending on who you listen too.

I'd say Clevlin Melvin is gonna be preseason POY

[MU82]

So Vander's projection for next year is an emotional response to the last game and not the 25 that came before?

Because you seem to be saying if he explodes for 25 tomorrow night against Rutgers he is back on the list.

Last 3 games: 20 pts, 8 turnovers.

And it's not even a reflection of that. Vander is a 14-point scorer. He is a nice player. But he is not Wade. He's not even DJO. Not yet, not at this point. Just as it's little more than hope to call him a future NBA player -- not a single mock draft has him as a draft pick in either 2013 OR 2104 -- it's little more than hope to call him a legitimate national PoY prospect.

Look, I don't want to talk bad about the kid, and I don't think I am. I've defended him lots of times here when others were ripping him. I simply strive for everybody being realistic.

If some don't see the difference between the national perception of Cody Zeller coming into this season with his Indiana supporting cast vs. the likely perception of Vander Blue going into next season with his MU supporting cast, then, OK, we'll be No. 1 going into next season.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Last year we finished the season ranked #9. We lost 37.4 ppg, 13.2 rbs and 5.2 assts from that team and added two recruits whose were ranked around 90 and 130. We're now rated #15 and lose 16 ppg, 7.6 rbs and 6.2 assts. We add 3 top 60 4stars and one first team juco AA to the mix and should have Todd Mayo for the entire season. I think we squeeze into the the top 10 preseason next year.

I will bet you and all other comers that we are not preseason Top 10 next year.  I don't care what happens in this year's tournament*, there is no chance it will happen.  

*I reserve the right to welsh on this bet if we win the whole damn thing!

[BCHoopster]

Indiana has the #3 recruiting class coming in to go along with last year's top 10 class. Kansas and Syracuse both have top 5 classes coming in.

MU is a top 15-20 team this year that will lose their PG but you honestly think that Otule, Gardner and the #55 recruit in the country will be enough to get MU into the top 10 to start the season? I'm not saying the team won't end up in the top 10 or even be #1 at some point in the season. Who knows? But to say they'll be ranked in the top 10 to start the season is just plain ignorant.

Kentucky had the #1 recruiting class last year, how are they doing?  The year Kentucky won they had 6 NBA players with 3 having some experience, you will never tell me that happens
that much, mainly never.  Indiana will not have as much experience as MU, I do not agree.

[77ncaachamps]

I say the Preseason rank for 2013-14 will be #15.

[Lennys Tap]

[quote author=MerrittsMustache link=topic=36607.msg460748#msg460748 date=

MU is a top 15-20 team this year that will lose their PG but you honestly think that Otule, Gardner and the #55 recruit in the country will be enough to get MU into the top 10 to start the season? I'm not saying the team won't end up in the top 10 or even be #1 at some point in the season. Who knows? But to say they'll be ranked in the top 10 to start the season is just plain ignorant.

[/quote]

If MU finishes between 10 and 15 this year and returns 8 of its 10 man rotation while adding a top 10 recruiting class I don't think saying we'll start next year in the lower portion of the top  10 is ignorant.

[MerrittsMustache]

Kentucky had the #1 recruiting class last year, how are they doing?  The year Kentucky won they had 6 NBA players with 3 having some experience, you will never tell me that happens
that much, mainly never.  Indiana will not have as much experience as MU, I do not agree.

Kentucky opened the season at #3 in the country. That's what this debate is about - preseason rankings.

[bilsu]

I will bet you and all other comers that we are not preseason Top 10 next year.  I don't care what happens in this year's tournament*, there is no chance it will happen.  

*I reserve the right to welsh on this bet if we win the whole damn thing!

I think there is a respectable chance that it happens. I also think, if it happens there is a respectable chance we are overrated. I rather be underrated at start of year.

[MU82]

I hope we're ranked super-high before the season because it gives us a better chance of keeping a high rank all year, which means we'd get to go to a BCS bowl. All we have to do is play East Tennessee State, Rice, BYU-Hawaii and Savannah State in the non-conference schedule, and we'll be golden. If our QB stays healthy, maybe we can even win the mythical national championship!

[Tugg Speedman]

Next year's class is stacked, and I think we can agree that the 2015 MU team could be still better.

Next year a top 10, and even a top 5 preseason ranking can be important to recruiting.  Only very high level players will consider MU because of the lack of playing time.  Or, only players confident they will get playing time no matter who is on MU will come.  (i.e., Kevon Looney or players at that level).

Or, to prevent a bust of a class, we need positive buzz out of the gate (no pun intended) otherwise I fear next fall's class could disappoint.

Thoughts?

[BCHoopster]

Next year's class is stacked, and I think we can agree that the 2015 MU team could be still better.

Next year a top 10, and even a top 5 preseason ranking can be important to recruiting.  Only very high level players will consider MU because of the lack of playing time.  Or, only players confident they will get playing time no matter who is on MU will come.  (i.e., Kevon Looney or players at that level).

Or, to prevent a bust of a class, we need positive buzz out of the gate (no pun intended) otherwise I fear next fall's class could disappoint.

Thoughts?

Only needs a big man to come in and start, there must be somebody out there who wants to do that.  It would be nice to do some damage at the Garden next week, more PR for
Buzz, bring on Louisville, time to play them again.

[wadesworld]

Next year's class is stacked, and I think we can agree that the 2015 MU team could be still better.

Next year a top 10, and even a top 5 preseason ranking can be important to recruiting.  Only very high level players will consider MU because of the lack of playing time.  Or, only players confident they will get playing time no matter who is on MU will come.  (i.e., Kevon Looney or players at that level).

Or, to prevent a bust of a class, we need positive buzz out of the gate (no pun intended) otherwise I fear next fall's class could disappoint.

Thoughts?

So let me get this straight.  We're going to be ranked top 5 next year because we're ranked where Indiana was last year and we have a very strong recruiting class coming in.  Yet if we don't have buzz surrounding the team preseason, that strong recruiting class is going to be a bust?  If there's buzz around the team they will perform on the court, but if there's not they will never perform?

Wow, the clowns are out tonight!

[Tugg Speedman]

Not next year's class (2014) that is set and signed and coming.  I was referring to the 2015 class, that can sign this November before play starts and will only have preseason ranking to judge how good we will be next year.

[Tugg Speedman]

So now what do you think?

[setyoursightsnorth]

I say 17th next year.
I think we finish the year ranked 10th.

[Sunbelt15]

Top25 ranking with Blue coming back.

[MUFlutieEffect]

First of all, I'm really confused why anyone on here (i.e. someone who is a pretty devoted fan, and presumably watches a LOT of college basketball) thinks there is even a small chance Vander goes to the NBA.

That said, while both Junior and Trent are valuable pieces, I can't see us with a pre-season ranking outside of the top 15.

[chapman]

Preseason rankings are little more than 1) What did you lose on paper? and 2) What is coming in?  We will measure up favorably there.  But it's also how preseason rankings are often wrong since 1) Junior, Trent, and possibly Chris are more valuable than their averages and 2) It assumes your incoming recruits are going to contribute right away if they're ranked highly.

[Ellenson Guerrero]

First of all, I'm really confused why anyone on here (i.e. someone who is a pretty devoted fan, and presumably watches a LOT of college basketball) thinks there is even a small chance Vander goes to the NBA.

That said, while both Junior and Trent are valuable pieces, I can't see us with a pre-season ranking outside of the top 15.

Because if Vander has any chance of going first round, this might be his best year to do so. Very weak draft class and a strong tourney performance. Not saying he'd stick in the league, but he might face his best chance to make the jump.

[BCHoopster]

Top 10 teams are analyzed about how many players are back then the freshman.  MU has there Top 3 scorers back next year, Kansas loses all 5, Indiana 4 out of 5.  They had a top
recruiting class this year, Yogi Ferrell who to me is average and some other kids who barely played, throw in some frosh and they are going to better than MU?  No way.  If Duane
Wilson can play as well as I have seen him play, MU will be better.  JC could not shoot, this guy has range.  It will take him some time to be aclimated  to college, give him half a season.