Duane Wilson Poised For Breakout Season

[Jay Bee]

Cheatham?

Markus, a''ina?

[4everwarriors]

HE had he stayed, hey?

[brewcity77]

Cheatham?

Two years ago people thought Duane could challenge it. Last year, everyone was saying Cheatham. This time next year, people could be saying Howard. Or Cheatham, or Duane, or someone else entirely, or none of the above. If anyone who is returning in 2017 puts up 16+ ppg (other than Rowsey), they'll be in the conversation.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Two years ago people thought Duane could challenge it. Last year, everyone was saying Cheatham. This time next year, people could be saying Howard. Or Cheatham, or Duane, or someone else entirely, or none of the above. If anyone who is returning in 2017 puts up 16+ ppg (other than Rowsey), they'll be in the conversation.

I think Cheatham has a legitamate shot. Good shooter, good slasher and really good free throw shooter. Howard, I really just don't see it. Cheatham is kinda like Jerel, just with a much better shot.

[Jay Bee]

I think Cheatham has a legitamate shot. Good shooter, good slasher and really good free throw shooter. Howard, I really just don't see it. Cheatham is kinda like Jerel, just with a much better shot.

FT% no matta

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

FT% no matta

Maybe not from a micro standpoint, but at a macro level if you're the best free throw shooter on the team, at end of the game when you're trying to ice it, your teammates are gonna try to get you the ball often.

[Jay Bee]

Maybe not from a micro standpoint, but at a macro level if you're the best free throw shooter on the team, at end of the game when you're trying to ice it, your teammates are gonna try to get you the ball often.

Great point.

[brewcity77]

FT% no matta

In this case, it does. Jerel got to the line 515 times in his career, with 72 of those coming his freshman year. His 71.7% accuracy converted that to 369 points. Take those away, and he's not the all-time scoring leader.

Haanif got to the line 122 times as a freshman. I doubt he'll continue to get to the line at a 170% higher rate than Jerel, but if he can get to the line the same 515 times (and you'd expect it to be more) his 82.0% accuracy (assuming it didn't change in 4 years) would translate to 422 points. When it comes to all-time scorer, 53 points could easily be the difference between first and second.

If he did maintain that 170% and 82.0%, he would finish with 718 points at the line, or 349 more than McNeal got from the charity stripe. That difference taken frmo McNeal would drop him from 1st to 13th.

Who knows what will happen in the next 2-3 years, but when it comes to a 140+ game career and hundreds of free throw attempts, 10.3% could easily be the deciding factor in who is Marquette's all-time scoring leader.

[jsglow]

Great analysis brew.

[Jay Bee]

In this case, it does. Jerel got to the line 515 times in his career, with 72 of those coming his freshman year. His 71.7% accuracy converted that to 369 points. Take those away, and he's not the all-time scoring leader.

Haanif got to the line 122 times as a freshman. I doubt he'll continue to get to the line at a 170% higher rate than Jerel, but if he can get to the line the same 515 times (and you'd expect it to be more) his 82.0% accuracy (assuming it didn't change in 4 years) would translate to 422 points. When it comes to all-time scorer, 53 points could easily be the difference between first and second.

If he did maintain that 170% and 82.0%, he would finish with 718 points at the line, or 349 more than McNeal got from the charity stripe. That difference taken frmo McNeal would drop him from 1st to 13th.

Who knows what will happen in the next 2-3 years, but when it comes to a 140+ game career and hundreds of free throw attempts, 10.3% could easily be the deciding factor in who is Marquette's all-time scoring leader.

More fun with numbers:

If Haanif shot the same FT% as Rel did as a freshman, Haanif would have scored 8.5 fewer points.

If Haanif shot the same eFG% as Rel did as a freshman, Haanif would have scored 43 fewer points.

[GGGG]

 

In this case, it does. Jerel got to the line 515 times in his career, with 72 of those coming his freshman year. His 71.7% accuracy converted that to 369 points. Take those away, and he's not the all-time scoring leader.

He didn't say free throws didn't matter.  He said FT%.  You can't counter that by simply removing all his free throws from the equation.

More fun with numbers:

Right.  That 34 point difference over four years is 1.7% of the amount needed to get to 1985.  While not completely irrelevant, it isn't very significant.

[mu03eng]

Let's put it this way....someone who will be on the roster this coming season, will break Jerel's record in my opinion.

[GGGG]

Let's put it this way....someone who will be on the roster this coming season, will break Jerel's record in my opinion.

I'm guessing Matt.

[brewcity77]

He didn't say free throws didn't matter.  He said FT%.  You can't counter that by simply removing all his free throws from the equation.

That's fine, but if Haanif were to get to the line more frequently and shoot a higher percentage, and again, I specifically stated I didn't think he'd make the 718 free throws, that difference is immense.

Right.  That 34 point difference over four years is 1.7% of the amount needed to get to 1985.  While not completely irrelevant, it isn't very significant.

You dispute removing all free throws, that's fair, but you can't look at the total points scored and say it's 1.7% and think that's all equal. If we're talking about anyone getting into the top-10 of scoring, there's a difference of 322 points from 1st to 10th. Don't know where you're getting 34 from, but the 53 point difference (assuming equal FT attempts) over the course of a career is a 16.5% difference when it comes to separating guys in the top-10, which is rather significant.

More fun with numbers:

If Haanif shot the same FT% as Rel did as a freshman, Haanif would have scored 8.5 fewer points.

If Haanif shot the same eFG% as Rel did as a freshman, Haanif would have scored 43 fewer points.

Yes, we all know eFG% is more important than FT%. But discarding FT% when you are factoring in 140+ games and hundreds of trips to the line over the course of a career is a fool's errand. If Haanif could even maintain 120% of McNeal's attempts at a 10% higher rate, that would give him a 138 point edge at the line over the course of his career. In a grouping of players separated by 322 total points, that's pretty darn significant (42.9%).

Over a game, season, or career, eFG% will obviously trump FT%. But when you're talking career, it all matters.

Also...nice job tilting the goal posts by using only freshman year numbers for Jerel. Highest career FT% season and lowest career eFG% helps further slant the argument.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I'm hopeful here in year 4 on campus, Duane can show nice progress. It's almost uncanny how similar his numbers were last year vs. RS FR year. Against better competition, he just wasn't very good. Against weaker competition, he ate.

I think the performance vs. better competition can and will improve some... how much? Dunno. eFG% comp of 51.5% isn't easy, but 3FG% of 34.6% has some room to grow.. 2FG% of 51.0% is a tough comp, but against the upper half of competition, that figure was only 45.5% on 2's.. AND only 28.8% on 3's... this is where there is some room for takeoff in 2016-17...

His offensive numbers were eerily similar, but it was on the defensive side of the ball that I thought he really fell apart.  He simply couldn't keep anyone in front of him, at all.  Anyone he was guarding was able to drive the lane at will it seemed.

[Marcus92]

I think a number of other players are more likely to have a big jump — such as Jajuan, Haanif or Luke. I'm not sure we need Duane to have a big jump, for that matter. If he can boost the 3-point percentage a bit, cut down on turnovers, provide some senior leadership, and play with focus and energy, that may be enough given all the options we have in the backcourt.

[jsglow]

I think a number of other players are more likely to have a big jump — such as Jajuan, Haanif or Luke. I'm not sure we need Duane to have a big jump, for that matter. If he can boost the 3-point percentage a bit, cut down on turnovers, provide some senior leadership, and play with focus and energy, that may be enough given all the options we have in the backcourt.

I couldn't agree more.  And depending on how well he does each of them will determine how many minutes he gets.

[MerrittsMustache]

We're quick to jump on JJJ's last 15ish games of the season and project that he'll breakout this season by putting up those numbers consistently. Yet, Duane's entire season was viewed as a disappointment despite the fact that his play and efficiency were excellent down the stretch. The increase in production wasn't as noticeable for Duane as for JJJ because JJJ was largely a non-factor in the first half of the season.

In Duane's first 18 games of the season (against mostly weak opp), he averaged 12.2 points on 40% shooting and 32.4% from 3 with 2.2 TOs.

In Duane's last 15 games of the season (post-Xavier), he averaged 10.9 points on 46.7% shooting and 39.2% from 3 with 1.9 TOs.

Sure, his points were down but his PPS was 1.19 thru the first 18 and increased to 1.34 in the final 15. He was playing basically the same number of minutes while taking fewer shots (down from 10.3/gm to 8.1/gm) and better shots. I'd take those numbers from Duane again this season.

As a sidenote, Duane fractured his wrist in the 2015 BET and missed several weeks in the offseason.

[jsglow]

No doubt Duane improved his performance over the course of the year.  And I'm not yet convinced that JjJ has surpassed him in every way or that he'll maintain that level of play witnessed down the stretch.  What I am convinced of is that Hanni is a budding star and that I expect him to start every game and log what will approach max minutes.  Said another way, it's Hanni that'll have the breakout year in my estimation.

[Jay Bee]

We're quick to jump on JJJ's last 15ish games of the season and project that he'll breakout this season by putting up those numbers consistently. Yet, Duane's entire season was viewed as a disappointment despite the fact that his play and efficiency were excellent down the stretch. The increase in production wasn't as noticeable for Duane as for JJJ because JJJ was largely a non-factor in the first half of the season.

In Duane's first 18 games of the season (against mostly weak opp), he averaged 12.2 points on 40% shooting and 32.4% from 3 with 2.2 TOs.

In Duane's last 15 games of the season (post-Xavier), he averaged 10.9 points on 46.7% shooting and 39.2% from 3 with 1.9 TOs.

Sure, his points were down but his PPS was 1.19 thru the first 18 and increased to 1.34 in the final 15. He was playing basically the same number of minutes while taking fewer shots (down from 10.3/gm to 8.1/gm) and better shots. I'd take those numbers from Duane again this season.

As a sidenote, Duane fractured his wrist in the 2015 BET and missed several weeks in the offseason.

Or if we shift things by ONE GAME and talk eFG% (what relevance does FG% have?)...

Wilson's first 17 games -- eFG% of 52.1%; last 16 games -- eFG% of 50.7%

[MerrittsMustache]

Or if we shift things by ONE GAME and talk eFG% (what relevance does FG% have?)...

Wilson's first 17 games -- eFG% of 52.1%; last 16 games -- eFG% of 50.7%

Throw the Xavier game out completely and his eFG% was 52.1% in the first 17 and 54.9% in the last 15. You want to go TS%? 55.2% pre-X and 57.3% post-X.

No matter how you attempt to spin it, it doesn't changes the fact that he was much better in the final 15 games than in the first 17-18.

[Jay Bee]

Throw the Xavier game out completely and his eFG% was 52.1% in the first 17 and 54.9% in the last 15. You want to go TS%? 55.2% pre-X and 57.3% post-X.

No matter how you attempt to spin it, it doesn't changes the fact that he was much better in the final 15 games than in the first 17-18.

I'm far more comfortable with you discussing the 54.9% v 52.1% instead of 46.7% v 39.2%.

[WarriorFan]

I just hope that Duane transitions well to a bench role, with fewer minutes, but probably as the main scoring option when he's in the game.  Can't see him starting, and really don't trust his D at the end of the game.  Yes, he has the nads to take big shots, but it's a two way game.  Hope he can keep his head up while he transitions to a role player - scoring focused super sub. 

[GGGG]

I just hope that Duane transitions well to a bench role, with fewer minutes, but probably as the main scoring option when he's in the game.  Can't see him starting, and really don't trust his D at the end of the game.  Yes, he has the nads to take big shots, but it's a two way game.  Hope he can keep his head up while he transitions to a role player - scoring focused super sub. 

This whole thing about Duane seems to be where message board types fall in love with the new guy (Howard) or hear whispers about the abilities of the transfer (Rowsey), when in reality the guy whose played a lot over the past two years is probably still going to play a lot.  (Duane)

I would be shocked if, barring injury, his minutes were significantly less than in prior years.

[forgetful]

This whole thing about Duane seems to be where message board types fall in love with the new guy (Howard) or hear whispers about the abilities of the transfer (Rowsey), when in reality the guy whose played a lot over the past two years is probably still going to play a lot.  (Duane)

I would be shocked if, barring injury, his minutes were significantly less than in prior years.

I agree. Duane is a very solid player.  He may not have developed last year like we would like, but he still put up very solid numbers.  Expecting a freshman or transfer to come in and displace his raw ability and proven success is a bit absurd.

Duane has the advantage of being able to grow from averaging 12 ppg against D1 competition in a system he has played in for 2 years; the other players have to adapt to that new level of competition, learn a new system, adapt to a new University setting and grow from high school ball. 

I'll take the proven player first and expect his performance to improve and his minutes to stay relatively constant...28 mpg.