Christmas

[GooooMarquette]

Or the doom and gloomers predicted a huge spike after Thanksgiving and when it didn't happen, people said F it, I'm gonna see my family.

Actually, it did happen. Places like the upper Midwest were spared because we had just weathered a huge surge, but the overall national numbers increased significantly.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/12/21/948809129/epidemiologists-urge-a-cautious-christmas-after-thanksgiving-surge-in-some-state

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I think it has more to do with Thanksgiving being just one day, where Christmas is generally celebrated with family over the course of a few days, people generally have off work, etc.

We didn't see our kids over Thanksgiving.  It ended up being a good day anyway.  But had the same happened at Christmas, it would have been very difficult for both my wife and I.  Luckily, everyone had the ability to quarantine for two weeks ahead of time so we have all been together for the past few days and it has been the best part of the last few months.

[The Lens]

I think it has more to do with Thanksgiving being just one day, where Christmas is generally celebrated with family over the course of a few days, people generally have off work, etc.

We didn't see our kids over Thanksgiving.  It ended up being a good day anyway.  But had the same happened at Christmas, it would have been very difficult for both my wife and I.  Luckily, everyone had the ability to quarantine for two weeks ahead of time so we have all been together for the past few days and it has been the best part of the last few months.

And obviously just scrolling thru FB doesn't allow for this context.

[Galway Eagle]

And obviously just scrolling thru FB doesn't allow for this context.

Been awhile since I had a Facebook but I believe you could post a poll asking everyone on your friends list and get to the bottom of your question.

[Goose]

Goooo

No doubt the spike did not happen in upper Midwest post Thanksgiving and that is great. That said, the experts said the biggest issue was having spikes when surges were in full swing. WI was in height of the surge in mid to late November and no spike happened.
I am 100% in favor of listening and giving the experts credit, but their of a major spike during a surge period did not happen. Hoping the same holds true after the holidays.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Goooo

No doubt the spike did not happen in upper Midwest post Thanksgiving and that is great. That said, the experts said the biggest issue was having spikes when surges were in full swing. WI was in height of the surge in mid to late November and no spike happened.
I am 100% in favor of listening and giving the experts credit, but their of a major spike during a surge period did not happen. Hoping the same holds true after the holidays.

So what is your hypothesis.  That it is impossible to have a spike when the epidemic is already raging or that people were being more careful with their contacts. 

Our state was starting to see moderation leading into t-giving but then had a spike coming out of it (hospitalizations since reporting cases is choppy).  It however has been handled as capacity is still fine and we are moderating again into Christmas.

[GooooMarquette]

Goooo

No doubt the spike did not happen in upper Midwest post Thanksgiving and that is great. That said, the experts said the biggest issue was having spikes when surges were in full swing. WI was in height of the surge in mid to late November and no spike happened.
I am 100% in favor of listening and giving the experts credit, but their of a major spike during a surge period did not happen. Hoping the same holds true after the holidays.

But spikes on top of surges did happen elsewhere, so it clearly can happen.

Take California. On November 1, their 7-day average of new cases was 4,220. By Thanksgiving day, they were at 13,352. That's more than a tripling, so clearly CA was in the midst of a surge. Over the next 3+ weeks following Thanksgiving, they saw a dramatic spike, hitting 44,763 on December 22. So they had a surge before Thanksgiving (4,220 -> 13,352), then a spike after (13,352 -> 44,763). Similar patterns occurred in NY, MA and a few states across the Southeast.

The fact that the experts' prediction didn't occur in WI may have been people being more cautions, the quirks of viral transmission, or simple serendipity. But the experience in CA and several other states clearly affirmed the experts' opinion that there can be a spike on top of a surge.

Either way, I hope we continue to see declines in the upper Midwest - and begin to see declines elsewhere - over the coming weeks....

[Goose]

Goo

Fully aware of the spikes nationally. I simply was stating the fear for a spike on top of a surge in WI thankfully did not materialize. It again shows to me how unpredictable the virus is and difficult to make broad based assumptions. Hopefully CA and Texas do not experience a spike on top of their crazy bad numbers.

[4everwarriors]

 Latest nonsense is US could be back to normal by Fall. Fauci's an idiot. Been wrong more than Woj, aina?

[GooooMarquette]

Goo

Fully aware of the spikes nationally. I simply was stating the fear for a spike on top of a surge in WI thankfully did not materialize. It again shows to me how unpredictable the virus is and difficult to make broad based assumptions. Hopefully CA and Texas do not experience a spike on top of their crazy bad numbers.

Gotcha.

Yeah - if CA or TX sees a post-Christmas spike, they might have to ration care. Hope it never comes to that.

[Jockey]

Latest nonsense is US could be back to normal by Fall. Fauci's an idiot. Been wrong more than Woj, aina?

The idiot is in your mirror.

[rocket surgeon]

The idiot is in your mirror.

you'd look a little better, if that's at all possible, if you could answer the question instead of attacking the individual. 

   you can probably find how wrong fauci has been somewhere-you'll have to google it a scroll to about page 46 as they actively provide cover to protect their peeps

[Galway Eagle]

He's using predictive statistical models it's pretty much impossible for him to be accurate 100% of the time.

[MU82]

Fauci said there would be a second wave this fall, and the lame duck practically shoved him off the dias, saying Fauci was an "alarmist" who didn't know what he was talking about.

Much better to believe real experts like Dr. Demon Seed, the My Pillow guy and Jared.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

you'd look a little better, if that's at all possible, if you could answer the question instead of attacking the individual. 

   you can probably find how wrong fauci has been somewhere-you'll have to google it a scroll to about page 46 as they actively provide cover to protect their peeps

Fauci hasn't been right all of the time.  But he's been more right than Trump and pretty much everyone else connected with his administration.

I guess you find comfort in that fact, which is not surprising at all.

[4everwarriors]

The idiot is in your mirror.

C'mon man, is that the best you've got? What the hell, have a few drinks and really bring it. You know, hate as no home here, aina?

#hypocrite

[TSmith34, Inc.]

you'd look a little better, if that's at all possible, if you could answer the question instead of attacking the individual. 

   you can probably find how wrong fauci has been somewhere-you'll have to google it a scroll to about page 46 as they actively provide cover to protect their peeps

Fauci has said that everyone should get vaccinated. So, since he has been so wrong, I assume you are not going to get vaccinated, right?

Oh wait, you've told us all repeatedly how HCQ really, really works, ergo there is no need to take the vaccine since there is such a cheap, common remedy, right?

[real chili 83]

The idiot is in your mirror.

^^^^^^^
Woke

[rocket surgeon]

Fauci hasn't been right all of the time.  But he's been more right than Trump and pretty much everyone else connected with his administration.

I guess you find comfort in that fact, which is not surprising at all.

  taking fauci by himself, leaving trump and his admin out of this if you can, fauci has been all over the map.  not to mention that DOCTOR fauci is a DOCTOR.  he isn't citing any research as that generated from actual doctors treating patients.  they knw what works and what doesn't.  btw, you guys who keep downplaying the efficacy of hcq-i wouldn't allow fauci to treat me or any of my family with it, but i certainly would want someone of the likes of dr harvey risch(lead epidemiologist yale med school) or dr stephen smith of the smith center for infectious diseases.  the key is if and/or when to initiate hcq treatment.  not all covid patients can be treated with hcq, just as not all patients can be treated with penicillin.  there is a window of time and combination of drugs that have been proven to be very effective in the hands of those who actually see and treat patients.  in other words, they have to know what they are doing.  fauci?  not so much

here are some fauci beauties

  1) this virus is not a major threat to the american people and it's not something we should be worried about

  2) new york did it correctly-huh?

  3)Dr Fauci saying that the virus was "not driven by asymptomatic carriers" and his comment in March that "people should not be walking around with masks".

  4) calling for a national quarantine??

  5) a falling mortality rate doesn’t matter when it is the single most important statistic to help guide the pace of our economic reopening.  sounds like he is starting to get out of his lane here as he does so offen.  the dude talks to who he wants to when he wants to.  when was the last time he's even treated patients?

  6) first he says a national mandate on masks wouldn't work(september) but now says maybe we should be mandating it?? so who got into his head?

   there are many studies that cast doubt on efficacy of masks, especially given that most are not KN95 quality and the cloth ones worn are more filthy than than anything you could repeatedly put on your face

  fauci has become a puppet of WHO and the CDC and the glass half empty people.  he is clearly an advocate for other causes first.  his multiple appearances on CNN and MSNBC 

[tower912]

It is better to learn more, adapt, adjust, acknowledge the process and make different plans as more data becomes known.   

Than to pawn it off to the least qualified person ever, not have a plan, and blame others.   By tweet from the golf course. 


It is an f'ing war.   You keep fighting and adapting as you learn more about your opponent.     Sometimes you are wrong and lose early.   The difference is whether you choose to learn and get better and continue the fight.     Or not.   

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

  taking fauci by himself, leaving trump and his admin out of this if you can, fauci has been all over the map.  not to mention that DOCTOR fauci is a DOCTOR.  he isn't citing any research as that generated from actual doctors treating patients.  they knw what works and what doesn't.  btw, you guys who keep downplaying the efficacy of hcq-i wouldn't allow fauci to treat me or any of my family with it, but i certainly would want someone of the likes of dr harvey risch(lead epidemiologist yale med school) or dr stephen smith of the smith center for infectious diseases.  the key is if and/or when to initiate hcq treatment.  not all covid patients can be treated with hcq, just as not all patients can be treated with penicillin.  there is a window of time and combination of drugs that have been proven to be very effective in the hands of those who actually see and treat patients.  in other words, they have to know what they are doing.  fauci?  not so much

here are some fauci beauties

  1) this virus is not a major threat to the american people and it's not something we should be worried about

  2) new york did it correctly-huh?

  3)Dr Fauci saying that the virus was "not driven by asymptomatic carriers" and his comment in March that "people should not be walking around with masks".

  4) calling for a national quarantine??

  5) a falling mortality rate doesn’t matter when it is the single most important statistic to help guide the pace of our economic reopening.  sounds like he is starting to get out of his lane here as he does so offen.  the dude talks to who he wants to when he wants to.  when was the last time he's even treated patients?

  6) first he says a national mandate on masks wouldn't work(september) but now says maybe we should be mandating it?? so who got into his head?

   there are many studies that cast doubt on efficacy of masks, especially given that most are not KN95 quality and the cloth ones worn are more filthy than than anything you could repeatedly put on your face

  fauci has become a puppet of WHO and the CDC and the glass half empty people.  he is clearly an advocate for other causes first.  his multiple appearances on CNN and MSNBC 

Lol. The fact that you are STILL bringing up hydroxy tells me all I need to know about your opinion on anything related to Covid - not worth the water to flush it down my toilet.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

It is better to learn more, adapt, adjust, acknowledge the process and make different plans as more data becomes known.   

Than to pawn it off to the least qualified person ever, not have a plan, and blame others.   By tweet from the golf course. 


It is an f'ing war.   You keep fighting and adapting as you learn more about your opponent.     Sometimes you are wrong and lose early.   The difference is whether you choose to learn and get better and continue the fight.     Or not.   

Rocket would be still be bitching about mistakes made during Pearl Harbor on VJ Day.

Unless Trump was President.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I think the prevailing perspective of Western medicines shunning/ridicule of universal masking is one of the largest mistakes of the pandemic.

Instead of learning the lessons of SARS we initially rejected it.  Then politics poured a bunch of gas on that fire.

Fauci had a hand in that for sure.  By the time he learned/corrected it was too late.  Particularly with no willingness by the govt to push that solution. 

[tower912]

13 months ago, the world new zero, nada, zilch, about this virus.    It came at all of us pretty fast.   Fauci said some things based on the best information he had at the time that later turned out to be wrong.    Once upon a time, doctors used leaches and dentists used wood dentures.    The learning curve about COVID has been rapid, ever accelerating, and steep.   There is still more to be learned and it is entirely possible with those the best intentions, using the best information available, are still going to say something that will eventually be shown to be wrong.     
     What is dangerous is those who still think this is no worse than the flu.    Who still downplay it.    Who, instead of trying to figure out how to keep themselves and those they love safe, and by extension, work to make things better for all, willfully choose me-first.   Who spread demonstrably false information because it makes them feel good.    Because they don't have the intelligence or courage to make the choices necessary to do the right thing for all.   

Approaching 20 million infected in the USA.    Approaching 400k dead.  (at least)       That is reality.     Life outside the cult bubble. 

[Galway Eagle]

Rocket regarding the national quarantine, I have a buddy living in Vietnam who was able to go out to a massive street party and celebrate New Years because of how effective it was.

I would trade the country completely shut down for 2-4wks back in spring for the summer and fall and beginning of winter to have been normal.