More conference realignment talk

[dgies9156]

I'll say it again: Val needs to put on either a business outfit or a party dress and court several ACC members.

Here's what I expect to happen:

SEC: Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Miami,

BIG: Virginia and Notre Dame

BEAST: Duke, Wake Forest, eventually Vanderbilt when the SEC realizes they don't need to Commodores anymore,

AAC: The rest of the ACC.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I'll say it again: Val needs to put on either a business outfit or a party dress and court several ACC members.

Here's what I expect to happen:

SEC: Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Miami,

BIG: Virginia and Notre Dame

BEAST: Duke, Wake Forest, eventually Vanderbilt when the SEC realizes they don't need to Commodores anymore,

AAC: The rest of the ACC.

You realize there are 18 teams in the ACC with the additions of Stanford, Cal and SMU right?

Even if everything plays out how you imagine, my guess is the ACC is going to continue as a much lesser football conference. In fact, the chances are more likely that UConn (and maybe another team or two from the AAC) joins them than Duke and Wake drop football and join the Big East.

[Magnum]

You realize there are 18 teams in the ACC with the additions of Stanford, Cal and SMU right?

Even if everything plays out how you imagine, my guess is the ACC is going to continue as a much lesser football conference. In fact, the chances are more likely that UConn (and maybe another team or two from the AAC) joins them than Duke and Wake drop football and join the Big East.

The only ACC team I can possibly see going to the BEAST in this scenario is ND. The remaining ACC teams would likely still give them guaranteed games to help with their FB schedule and the SEC will offer them one or two high profile OOC games a year to stay out of the B1G.

[MUbiz]

The only ACC team I can possibly see going to the BEAST in this scenario is ND. The remaining ACC teams would likely still give them guaranteed games to help with their FB schedule and the SEC will offer them one or two high profile OOC games a year to stay out of the B1G.

IMHO, if ND goes anywhere, it is the Big 10. And the chances of ND to the Big 10 are very little until NBC decides to stop paying them handsomely for the football contract.

[Warriors4ever]

I wander over to the Boneyard once in a while. The UConn fans there would be in the ACC by this evening if the invite came today, they would prefer any of the so-called power football conferences over the Big East.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I wander over to the Boneyard once in a while. The UConn fans there would be in the ACC by this evening if the invite came today, they would prefer any of the so-called power football conferences over the Big East.

I think that pretty much applies to anyone in the Big East at this point.  It's clear there is going to be a bi-furcation of leagues shortly....it's clear the big 4 conferences will be a part of the future of top tier basketball.  Beyond that a big "?" 

[Shooter McGavin]

I think that pretty much applies to anyone in the Big East at this point.  It's clear there is going to be a bi-furcation of leagues shortly....it's clear the big 4 conferences will be a part of the future of top tier basketball.  Beyond that a big "?"

Yep.  Not hard to imagine MU being in a second tier.  Val needs to be talking to these other commissioners about being in the first tier.  Based on most of the teams financial backing of basketball in the Big East I think it could happen.  The power school teams would have to share the tournament revenue and they may not want to but the product (end of season tournament) would be terrible if traditional basketball schools were left out.  There are literally millions of people who would not watch.  I know I wouldn’t. 

TAMU and others seem to think they would have to have at least 100-150 teams in the new tier one (correct me if I’m wrong TAMU) and I hope they are right.

What a disaster the would be for a school like MU.  There will be kids who won’t choose MU for that reason.  Would there be a basis for a lawsuit against the  power conferences?  This would really harm recruiting and retaining students.

I feel if Fox offers a new contract they’re safe for another 10 years.  If they offer a shorter term or do not offer at all, the writing is on the wall.  Fox and the other networks will have a very good idea about the future landscape of basketball.  They will not pay for a second tier league.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Yep.  Not hard to imagine MU being in a second tier.  Val needs to be talking to these other commissioners about being in the first tier.  Based on most of the teams financial backing of basketball in the Big East I think it could happen.  The power school teams would have to share the tournament revenue and they may not want to but the product (end of season tournament) would be terrible if traditional basketball schools were left out.  There are literally millions of people who would not watch.  I know I wouldn’t. 

TAMU and others seem to think they would have to have at least 100-150 teams in the new tier one (correct me if I’m wrong TAMU) and I hope they are right.

What a disaster the would be for a school like MU.  There will be kids who won’t choose MU for that reason.  Would there be a basis for a lawsuit against the  power conferences?  This would really harm recruiting and retaining students.

I feel if Fox offers a new contract they’re safe for another 10 years.  If they offer a shorter term or do not offer at all, the writing is on the wall.  Fox and the other networks will have a very good idea about the future landscape of basketball.  They will not pay for a second tier league.

I've long believed and still believe that the most likely outcome is that there is no split. That the Power 4 (I think it'll be Power 2.5 soon) will remain within the NCAA...while further increasing and consolidating power within the NCAA. My experience working with universities is that they are very comfortable with status quos as long as they are at the top of the food chain within the status quo. They know the status quo works, they can currently bend the NCAA to whatever whim they want...they may think a split will work but they don't know that it will. I think the Power 4 enjoy having the NCAA as a scapegoat for everything that goes wrong as well as all the logistical work that the NCAA takes care of for them. Any drawbacks to being in the NCAA can be rectified by rattling the "we're going to split" sword a little bit and the NCAA will bend over backward to minimize or get rid of that drawback.

If there is a split, I think more likely than not, the split will just be in football. Football is the only true moneymaker for the P4 and it is regular season driven with a very short season. They don't need a large pool of teams to be successful. I think bringing along basketball, volleyball, bowling, track and field, etc would only serve to dilute the benefits gained from separating football. In some ways, I think this could end up benefitting college basketball. Splitting football from the NCAA may allow schools to make separate decisions for their football and basketball programs to maximize the success of each. Rather than now where they make decisions to maximize their football program often at the expense of their basketball program. However, how viable the NCAA can be without P2.5 football is a giant question mark.

If there is a total split, I still think MU will be okay (but not great). College basketball is a postseason-driven sport. Virtually all the value in college basketball comes from March Madness. I don't see shrinking the tournament as a viable option. I also don't see every P2.5 school qualifying for the postseason as a viable option. Because of this, I think they will need some non-P2.5 teams to bolster their numbers. The thing is though, that doesn't mean they have to elevate schools like MU. For example, I could see a world where the tournament is 64 teams again...but say 40 of the spots are reserved for P2.5 teams playing in their own league. The last 24 are filled by the top 24 teams from those that remained in the NCAA. The P2.5 could create grossly uneven distributions between the 40 P2.5 teams and 24 NCAA teams. We'd still have a shot to play for the National Championship, but we could be resource starved into mid-major status.

I'm not concerned about the Big East's next contract. They'll get a contract and I think it it will be competitive. The contract I'm watching is the March Madness contract expiring in 2032. It's probably a coincidence, but the BEast's contract at MSG also expiring in 2032 has me a little spooked.

[dgies9156]

Brother TAMU:

I don't disagree with your overall assessment in the least. Basketball is life to us at Marquette. It's something to do between football and baseball season in the SEC and Big 10.

Let me propose another crazy idea:

The BEast and ACC merge, once UNC, Virginia, Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State and Miami leave.

The merger gives an outlet for football for UConn and anyone else that wants to play football. It creates such rivalries as UCONN/Boston College and restores Syracuse to many of its former partners.  The conference's football might would be suspect but the real game changer is basketball.

The ACC won't be able to hold Clemson, Miasmi and Florida State, so long as the SEC wants them.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The ACC has no reason to merge with the Big East.

[WhiteTrash]

The ACC has no reason to merge with the Big East.

I tend to agree with this. My only hesitation to 100% agree is the BigXII's interest in Gonzaga and possibly other schools. Perhaps they have a model that see material benefit to having very good basketball schools.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The Big 12's interest in Gonzaga seems to be limited to their conference commissioner. I don't think the schools have much interest at all.

But the larger point is, what exactly does the BE give them? Sure some better basketball programs, but why not just take the programs you want instead of an all out merger.

[WhiteTrash]

The Big 12's interest in Gonzaga seems to be limited to their conference commissioner. I don't think the schools have much interest at all.

But the larger point is, what exactly does the BE give them? Sure some better basketball programs, but why not just take the programs you want instead of an all out merger.

Agreed.

The only scenario, which seems very unlikely, is that 1)the ACC wanted most of the schools and 2)the BE termination fees for schools leaving is so onerous that the financial best play is to merge. I don't think this would be the case. DePaul is a massive anchor for any conference to take on.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Yeah, if the ACC loses some members, I would almost guaranty that UConn will be out the door. And if I'm Nova, I would turn my football program into FBS and leave with them if invited.

I would also see them looking at Tulane out of the American too.

[WhiteTrash]

Yeah, if the ACC loses some members, I would almost guaranty that UConn will be out the door. And if I'm Nova, I would turn my football program into FBS and leave with them if invited.

I would also see them looking at Tulane out of the American too.

Good observations. I'll add a sneaky program with potential; UTSA. Big market.

[MUfan12]

UTSA. Big market.

*Barkley voice*

Big ol' women, too.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The ACC has no reason to merge with the Big East.

I can see a world where the ACC gets so poached that it is not considered an upgrade to the BEast anymore. If that world came to be, a merger could make sense. I don't think it is likely, but I see the path. I don't think the ACC would survive if there ever was a split from the NCAA.

Put it like this. If the B12/SEC/B1G come calling, every BEast team would jump at the opportunity. If the ACC comes calling now, UConn jumps at the opportunity. I'm not sure if any other BEast team does. If the ACC comes calling in a few years, I'm not sure UConn jumps. It all depends on how the next few years play out.