BEast Non Con

[CAGASS24]

Much discussion was hashed out last year about what the BEast did for its reputation during non-con play; ie, record against quality OOC opponents.  While there were some hallmark wins for the conf, as a whole I felt like last year a handful more wins could have gone a long way.

This year, I wanted to see the opportunities ahead for the conf.  This list only includes known opponents (i.e. subsequent rounds of early tourneys not included).  So, rest assured the league will likely have 5-10 more opportunities than below.

Known opponents are:

North Carolina
Northwestern
Tennesse
Indiana (2x)
Oklahoma
Nebraska
St. Mary’s (2x)
Stanford
GW (2x)
Colorado
Florida
KU
Ohio State
Georgia Tech
Wisconsin
Arizona State
Florida State
Notre Dame
Kentucky
Boston College
Miami
Nevada
Rutgers
Washington State
South Florida
Georgia
Minnesota
Syracuse (2x)
VCU
Illinois
Temple
Bama
Mizzou
Auburn

38 games we know about

In further breakdown;
B10 (9 opponents)
SEC (7 opponents)
ACC (8 opponents)
B12 (2 opponents)
P12 (4 opponents)
AAC (3 opponents)
WCC (2 opponents)
MWC (1 opponents)
A10 (2 opponents)

And another:
Preseason top 10  (5 opponents)
Preseason top 11-25   (6 opponents)
Preseason ‘receiving votes’ (8 opponents)

19/38 listed games above


So, a cursory look shows the Beast has ample opportunity to prove itself against the best around.  Happy that is the case.  I would say 19-19 against that list above would be welcomed any day of the week.  If someone has the chops and wants to put together a method of tracking the W-L through the OOC portion to make future commentary easier to manage, go for it!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Nice post.  The Big East killed itself in the Non-Con last year.  Not all of this post applies here, but I made a post last week about the strength of the Big East (last year, in what was a down year for the conference's top tier of teams) relative to the top Mid Majors (A10, MWC), the tier of high majors we are most comparable with (Pac12, SEC) and the American.  I posted it in the wrong forum that ended up dying rather quickly, but thought I would share here. Obviously KenPom rankings are not the end all be all, but this should at least give you an idea.



The A-10 is a solid conference, but it is was worse than the Big East last year in a year where the Big East was down. The MWC and AAC have a great top half, but the bottom half is pitiful. The Big East is much more comparable to the SEC and the PAC12. And I have stats to back that up...

Using KenPom's final rankings as the measuring stick...

American: Average of 120.82, featuring the likes of UCONN (8), Cincinnati (23), SMU (30) and Memphis (37) towards the top, but South Florida (186), East Carolina (242) and Tulane (282) at the bottom.  Gross.

A-10: The A-10 had a great year last year and had an average KenPom rating of 87.93.  That featured 6 top 55 teams VCU (17), SLU (35), Dayton (38), St. Joes (46), George Washington (47) and UMASS (54), but also the likes of Duquesne (147), Fordham (204) and Rhode Island (103).  George Washington (47), UMASS (54), St. Joes (46) and Dayton (38) will not be as good this year.  The A-10 is a nice little conference, but every team in it would love to be in the Big East (see: SLU and Dayton).

MWC: Average of 141.36, with four top 100 teams in SDSU (18), New Mexico (31), Boise State (79) and UNLV (91) and 7 teams 100+ including Colorado State (136), Nevade (146), Air Force (263) and San Jose State (302).  Again, a nice upper tier mid major conference, but hard to say they are on par with the Big East (in a down year).

Big East: Average of 75 last year, higher than the American, A-10 and MWC, in what everyone would call a down year for the Big East as a whole, due to a very poor OOC and showings in the big dance.  Only two teams fell outside the top 100 in Butler (104 - just barely) and Depaul (198).  Nova (14) and Creighton (24) had nice years, but other top programs in Georgetown (65) and Marquette (76) fell significantly below their regular season.  One could even argue Xavier (59) was a bit down last year.  The rest fall about where I expect them to most seasons in Providence (51), St. Johns (61 - should be a bit higher most years), and Seton Hall (98).  This is a deep conference that really only has one bad team.

Just for fun, and for the sake of my argument, let's compare the Big East to the PAC12 and SEC.

Pac12: Average of 71.75 last year, featuring six top 50 programs in Arizona (2), UCLA (15), Oregon (29), Stanford (36), Utah (42) and Arizona State (45).  Only two teams fell outside of the top 100 in USC (163) and Washington St (183).  I think the PAC12 and Big East are very comparable, but obviously the BE lacks the elite, Blue Blood program that the PAC12 has in Arizona. 

SEC: The SEC had an average of 75.64, just behind the Big East. The SEC was, and usually will be, very top heavy with Florida (3), Kentucky (11) and Tennessee (7).  Then comes the next tier with Texas A&M (39), Arkansas (52) LSU (58), Georgia (72) and Missouri (78).  Some of these programs overachieved last year, while others underachieved.  Generally, the SEC will be very top heavy, the middle will be full of teams between 55-80, and then several stinkers, much like last year with South Carolina (114), Auburn (129), and Mississippi State (208). Kentucky and Florida keep this conference afloat, and without them, the Big East would be far superior.

To recap, the final 2014 average KenPom rankings for the A-10, MWC, AAC, BE, SEC and PAC12 were as follows:

PAC12 - 71.75
Big East - 75
SEC - 75.64
A-10 - 87.93
American - 120.82
MWC - 130.27

[The Equalizer]

Much discussion was hashed out last year about what the BEast did for its reputation during non-con play; ie, record against quality OOC opponents.  While there were some hallmark wins for the conf, as a whole I felt like last year a handful more wins could have gone a long way.

This year, I wanted to see the opportunities ahead for the conf.  This list only includes known opponents (i.e. subsequent rounds of early tourneys not included).  So, rest assured the league will likely have 5-10 more opportunities than below.

Known opponents are:

North Carolina
Northwestern
Tennesse
Indiana (2x)
Oklahoma
Nebraska
St. Mary’s (2x)
Stanford
GW (2x)
Colorado
Florida
KU
Ohio State
Georgia Tech
Wisconsin
Arizona State
Florida State
Notre Dame
Kentucky
Boston College
Miami
Nevada
Rutgers
Washington State
South Florida
Georgia
Minnesota
Syracuse (2x)
VCU
Illinois
Temple
Bama
Mizzou
Auburn

38 games we know about

In further breakdown;
B10 (9 opponents)
SEC (7 opponents)
ACC (8 opponents)
B12 (2 opponents)
P12 (4 opponents)
AAC (3 opponents)
WCC (2 opponents)
MWC (1 opponents)
A10 (2 opponents)

And another:
Preseason top 10  (5 opponents)
Preseason top 11-25   (6 opponents)
Preseason ‘receiving votes’ (8 opponents)

19/38 listed games above


So, a cursory look shows the Beast has ample opportunity to prove itself against the best around.  Happy that is the case.  I would say 19-19 against that list above would be welcomed any day of the week.  If someone has the chops and wants to put together a method of tracking the W-L through the OOC portion to make future commentary easier to manage, go for it!

Lets face it, wins over most of these teams aren't going to be reputation builders for the Big East, no matter what league the opponent is from.  Think about  this: were we ever impressed by our wins over Rutgers and South Florida?  Or did our losses to them devalue us? 

So what's changed now that we're in a different league. Beat those teams and the world shrugs.  So what? You're supposed to beat 'em. 

The possibility, however, is that if BE teams lose, its a negative regardless of league they're in.

You can simplify the analysis.  For the Big East to win national respect, we need as many wins possible from this reduced list:   

North Carolina
Florida
Kansas
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Kentucky
Syracuse (x2)
VCU

Get swept here and it really won't matter how many of the other games we win. 

[MarquetteDano]

HenryJam,

 Thanks for the numbers. The stats show the conf shouldnt hamper the RPI or other ratings (for Marquette). That said, I really think the conference need a team in at least the Elite Eight (preferably Final Four) within two years. Otherwise, despite the numbers we will be not be viewed like the SEC or PAC-12 since those conferences consistently get teams there.