COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Forgetful

People want definitive answers and want them immediately - they don’t have a basic understanding of how science works. Thanks to you, Dano and others for keeping us on track.

That is an interesting insight Lenny. It reminds me of a recent article which includes your thought as well as insight into both the anti-science, anti-education, common-sense-is-greater-than-facts unhinged screeds from guru and rocket's constant railing about experts.

https://thebulwark.com/trump-covid-19-and-the-american-idiocracy/

“The war on academia bleeds into a war on the very idea of expertise,” writes Zack Beauchamp in Vox. Scapegoating experts as the enemies of ordinary people has polarized perceptions of learning itself, instilling a belief “that liberal elites are conning you, that they’re less competent than an ordinary person. . . . The very idea of nonpartisan knowledge production is obliterated.”
<snip>
Tom Nichols, the conservative academic who teaches at the U.S. Naval War College, addressed this phenomenon in his 2017 book The Death of Expertise. Too many Americans, Nichols argues, prefer magical thinking to the fruits of education or experience. A primary cause is that the complexity of modern life engenders feelings of helplessness among those who feel threatened by increasingly unfathomable forces—and the sophisticated experts who propound them.”
<snip>
”This devolution is particularly acute in shaping our views about politics, decoupling our biases and delusions from the need for objective verification. In this swampland of subjectivity, beliefs justify themselves simply by existing, creating a thickening fog of incomprehension wherein expertise competes with bunk. The result is a pernicious intellectual populism in which anyone’s opinion, no matter how groundless, is equal to those rooted in assiduous research and analyses. All one needs to validate an assertion is to express it.

Little wonder that an increasing number of Republicans—59 percent, per a 2019 Pew Research survey—believe that colleges and universities have a negative effect on American life. This attitude, in turn, accelerates a craving for simple answers, and a resentment of those who refute them. Writes Nichols: “When people are told that ending poverty or preventing terrorism or stimulating economic growth is a lot harder than it looks, they roll their eyes. Unable to comprehend all the complexity around them, they choose instead to comprehend almost none of it and then sullenly blame elites for seizing control of their lives.”

[MU82]

Well, that was quick. The WHO expert is already walking back her comments on asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 being rare ...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/world/coronavirus-updates.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20200609&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=108420427&segment_id=30445&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa

A top expert at the World Health Organization on Tuesday walked back her earlier assertion that transmission of the coronavirus by people who do not have symptoms is “very rare.” 
Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, who made the original comment at a W.H.O. briefing on Monday, said that it was based on just two or three studies and that it was a “misunderstanding” to say asymptomatic transmission is rare globally.

“I was just responding to a question, I wasn’t stating a policy of W.H.O. or anything like that,” she said.

Dr. Van Kerkhove said that the estimates of transmission from people without symptoms come primarily from models, which may not provide an accurate representation. “That’s a big open question, and that remains an open question,” she said.

I wish guru Lett's reason for spiking the football short of the goal line had been based on scientifically vetted facts, because then it would have been something to celebrate. But unfortunately it's not.

There are still a lot of things we don't know about COVID-19. And by we, I mean scientists, politicians, the general public, and even an extremely stable genius like guru.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

That is an interesting insight Lenny. It reminds me of a recent article which includes your thought as well as insight into both the anti-science, anti-education, common-sense-is-greater-than-facts unhinged screeds from guru and rocket's constant railing about experts.

https://thebulwark.com/trump-covid-19-and-the-american-idiocracy/

“The war on academia bleeds into a war on the very idea of expertise,” writes Zack Beauchamp in Vox. Scapegoating experts as the enemies of ordinary people has polarized perceptions of learning itself, instilling a belief “that liberal elites are conning you, that they’re less competent than an ordinary person. . . . The very idea of nonpartisan knowledge production is obliterated.”
<snip>
Tom Nichols, the conservative academic who teaches at the U.S. Naval War College, addressed this phenomenon in his 2017 book The Death of Expertise. Too many Americans, Nichols argues, prefer magical thinking to the fruits of education or experience. A primary cause is that the complexity of modern life engenders feelings of helplessness among those who feel threatened by increasingly unfathomable forces—and the sophisticated experts who propound them.”
<snip>
”This devolution is particularly acute in shaping our views about politics, decoupling our biases and delusions from the need for objective verification. In this swampland of subjectivity, beliefs justify themselves simply by existing, creating a thickening fog of incomprehension wherein expertise competes with bunk. The result is a pernicious intellectual populism in which anyone’s opinion, no matter how groundless, is equal to those rooted in assiduous research and analyses. All one needs to validate an assertion is to express it.

Little wonder that an increasing number of Republicans—59 percent, per a 2019 Pew Research survey—believe that colleges and universities have a negative effect on American life. This attitude, in turn, accelerates a craving for simple answers, and a resentment of those who refute them. Writes Nichols: “When people are told that ending poverty or preventing terrorism or stimulating economic growth is a lot harder than it looks, they roll their eyes. Unable to comprehend all the complexity around them, they choose instead to comprehend almost none of it and then sullenly blame elites for seizing control of their lives.”

I agree with this completely. 

Compare and contrast with a country like Germany, whose citizens by and large trust the government and trust scientists.

They shut down, relatively few people died, are slowly opening back up and will likely have a quicker recovery. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Well, that was quick. The WHO expert is already walking back her comments on asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 being rare ...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/world/coronavirus-updates.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20200609&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=108420427&segment_id=30445&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa

A top expert at the World Health Organization on Tuesday walked back her earlier assertion that transmission of the coronavirus by people who do not have symptoms is “very rare.” 
Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, who made the original comment at a W.H.O. briefing on Monday, said that it was based on just two or three studies and that it was a “misunderstanding” to say asymptomatic transmission is rare globally.

“I was just responding to a question, I wasn’t stating a policy of W.H.O. or anything like that,” she said.

Dr. Van Kerkhove said that the estimates of transmission from people without symptoms come primarily from models, which may not provide an accurate representation. “That’s a big open question, and that remains an open question,” she said.

I wish guru Lett's reason for spiking the football short of the goal line had been based on scientifically vetted facts, because then it would have been something to celebrate. But unfortunately it's not.

There are still a lot of things we don't know about COVID-19. And by we, I mean scientists, politicians, the general public, and even an extremely stable genius like guru.

My guess is we won't see guru around for awhile.

[shoothoops]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1270348830958063618?s=19

https://www.wtsp.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/asymptomatic-spread-of-coronavirus-is-rare-who-official-says/507-f42b12e2-4da5-4c49-85de-06e1f81e399d

[JWags85]

Given how awful the WHO has been during this entire adventure, I’m not sure anything they said should be taken as gospel. Them walking back that report is perfectly in line with half a dozen other things they changed their mind on or walked back over the last 3 months

[jesmu84]

Given how awful the WHO has been during this entire adventure, I’m not sure anything they said should be taken as gospel. Them walking back that report is perfectly in line with half a dozen other things they changed their mind on or walked back over the last 3 months

It is funny to watch those who were trashing the WHO and telling us not to believe anything the said for the last few months now jumping head first and 100% believing their latest statement

[Galway Eagle]

It is funny to watch those who were trashing the WHO and telling us not to believe anything the said for the last few months now jumping head first and 100% believing their latest statement

Spoken like someone who never took a class from the great John McAdams or read the gospel according to rush limbaugh

[tower912]

It is funny to watch those who were trashing the WHO and telling us not to believe anything the said for the last few months now jumping head first and 100% believing their latest statement

That the WHO is walking back.

[jesmu84]

That the WHO is walking back.

Saw that. But still funny.

I'm guessing that same group will now take the stance that WHO was totally wrong in the beginning, then yesterday finally came clean and today is reversing their claim from yesterday due to lib political pressure.

[Warriors4ever]

https://www.france24.com/en/20200609-covid-19-lockdowns-saved-millions-of-lives-and-easing-curbs-risky-studies-find

[JWags85]

NJ lifted their Stay At Home Order and allow up to 50 people at indoor gatherings. So Rutgers basketball home schedule should be good to go

[mu03eng]

That the WHO is walking back.

Side question, what party (can't say who without confusion) is most responsible for this latest round of misinformation associated with the WHO....is it the WHO/scientist who made the statement or the journalists that theoretically mis-reported it and/or over amplified it.

[MU82]

Side question, what party (can't say who without confusion) is most responsible for this latest round of misinformation associated with the WHO....is it the WHO/scientist who made the statement or the journalists that theoretically mis-reported it and/or over amplified it.

Saying something was "taken out of context," "misreported" or "misunderstood" is a time-tested way for a public official to deflect blame from himself or herself.

[GooooMarquette]

Tom Nichols, the conservative academic who teaches at the U.S. Naval War College, addressed this phenomenon in his 2017 book The Death of Expertise. Too many Americans, Nichols argues, prefer magical thinking to the fruits of education or experience. A primary cause is that the complexity of modern life engenders feelings of helplessness among those who feel threatened by increasingly unfathomable forces—and the sophisticated experts who propound them.”

Yep. Complexity and scientific ambiguity is always challenging, but in our ever more impatient "sound bite" culture, it snowballs to the point that some just want an "easy answer." And simple one-syllable words like "hoax" often give people the answer they're looking for.

[Galway Eagle]

NJ lifted their Stay At Home Order and allow up to 50 people at indoor gatherings. So Rutgers basketball home schedule should be good to go

Nice

[pbiflyer]

Saw that. But still funny.

I'm guessing that same group will now take the stance that WHO was totally wrong in the beginning, then yesterday finally came clean and today is reversing their claim from yesterday due to lib political pressure.

Here, let me give you this handy dandy guide they use when it comes to WHO and China:

Fake News, lying:
1. Anything that makes China's response look good.
2. Anything that makes the US's response look bad.

100% accurate, no need to fact check or put in context:
1. Anything that supports immediate reopening of everything
2. Anything that makes the federal US response look better

[pbiflyer]

NJ lifted their Stay At Home Order and allow up to 50 people at indoor gatherings. So Rutgers basketball home schedule should be good to go

[Uncle Rico]

Yep. Complexity and scientific ambiguity is always challenging, but in our ever more impatient "sound bite" culture, it snowballs to the point that some just want an "easy answer." And simple one-syllable words like "hoax" often give people the answer they're looking for.

Ignorance is bliss

[mu03eng]

Saying something was "taken out of context," "misreported" or "misunderstood" is a time-tested way for a public official to deflect blame from himself or herself.

Agreed, I just mean if we were figuring out how to prevent this type of stupidity in the future, who is to blame for the stupidity in the first place?

[mu03eng]

Yep. Complexity and scientific ambiguity is always challenging, but in our ever more impatient "sound bite" culture, it snowballs to the point that some just want an "easy answer." And simple one-syllable words like "hoax" often give people the answer they're looking for.

It's a weapon for both sides these days.....science is real and meaningful when it supports your argument and fluid/unsettled when it isn't. It's not about complexity, it's about tribalism and the need to win

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

It's a weapon for both sides these days.....science is real and meaningful when it supports your argument and fluid/unsettled when it isn't. It's not about complexity, it's about tribalism and the need to win

Not really.

[GooooMarquette]

Side question, what party (can't say who without confusion) is most responsible for this latest round of misinformation associated with the WHO....is it the WHO/scientist who made the statement or the journalists that theoretically mis-reported it and/or over amplified it.

I just watched the press briefing where she made the statement. It's complicated.

The question came from a Reuters reporter, and begins at about the 32-minute mark of the June 8 briefing. Instead of trying to paraphrase or quote it, I will post the link here and let those who are interested listen to that Q and A. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/press-briefings

My opinion is that many are overemphasizing the notion of "fault" because the issue is evolving and complicated. IMHO, the WHO representative did a good job of accurately answering the question. She bagan by noting that many people reported as "asymptomatic" were really "presymptomatic" or had mild disease. She then went on to say that WHO has "a number of detailed reports" that show that truly asymptomatic transmission is "very rare." She then said that WHO is trying to get more information because we need to learn more to be sure.

The way I would have reported her comments would have been to say that current data tends to indicate that transmission by people who are truly asymptomatic seems to be rare...but that we need to be careful in applying this because (1) the data is evolving and incomplete, and (2) many of the people who we are calling asymptomatic really are presymptomatic or have mild disease (and do spread the virus).

So are the reporters "at fault"? I would say yes and no. She did use the words "very rare" when referring to asymptomatic spread so I think it was fair to use them in reports...but I think reporters should have done a better job of trying to explain the caveats. That said, TSmith's post showed the limits of publishing explanations that are "too complicated" - people tend to gloss over the complexities and just want to know "the answer."

[GooooMarquette]

It's a weapon for both sides these days.....science is real and meaningful when it supports your argument and fluid/unsettled when it isn't. It's not about complexity, it's about tribalism and the need to win

That might be how it is works out in the larger culture. But in my little corner of the world, science is real and meaningful and fluid and unsettled all at the same time. So I follow what the weight of scientific authority says whether I like or not...with the understanding that it could very well change at any time. And that's just fine with me.

Many people don't like that level of uncertainty, so they call it a "hoax."

 

[Jockey]

That might be how it is works out in the larger culture. But in my little corner of the world, science is real and meaningful and fluid and unsettled all at the same time. So I follow what the weight of scientific authority says whether I like or not...with the understanding that it could very well change at any time. And that's just fine with me.

Many people don't like that level of uncertainty, so they call it a "hoax."

I think this is the case with all rational, educated people.