COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[rocky_warrior]

People have been suggested to isolate for 14 days. People appear to be most contagious the week before symptoms and the week of symptoms.

I posted the EXACT CDC guidance above.  Please refer to that.

[mu03eng]

Get bent, dude.  I'm not doing your research for you.  You can't ask me a million questions that you won't just answer yourself with a simple search.  I'm not getting paid to do your research.

I don't need research, my whole point was that if the concern is how quickly we overwhelm capacity none of the data you've been presenting truly matters. The number positive cases doesn't matter because a minor case has little to no impact on capacity, but positive cases that convert to hospitalizations which is what consumes capacity (and how long those beds are occupied by a single patient). Without that information we're just guessing and the sheer volume of positive tests will continue to drive fear.

For the record, I'm not saying you are wrong or the worst isn't about to hit, I'm just saying the data we are using is wrong.

[jesmu84]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-uk-model-study/index.html

Interesting study running contrary to what everyone is doing. Suggests that all this isolation is going to cost countless lives.

Someone is right and someone is wrong. I'm hoping they are wrong.

I didn't get that message at all from the study. What I understood was that 4-6 week isolation measures will still lead to deaths as virus will spread again once we all come back out.

Study seems to say we gotta stay isolated until a cure/vaccine is found (up to 18 months) to prevent the deaths and overwhelming of the healthcare system

[skianth16]

I'd be elated if we only end up with under 10k deaths.

Given that there are under 8,000 deaths globally right now, I think that's a pretty likely outcome.

[Hards Alumni]

I don't need research, my whole point was that if the concern is how quickly we overwhelm capacity none of the data you've been presenting truly matters. The number positive cases doesn't matter because a minor case has little to no impact on capacity, but positive cases that convert to hospitalizations which is what consumes capacity (and how long those beds are occupied by a single patient). Without that information we're just guessing and the sheer volume of positive tests will continue to drive fear.

For the record, I'm not saying you are wrong or the worst isn't about to hit, I'm just saying the data we are using is wrong.

I think you've been ignoring a lot of what I have been saying in some sort of attempt to derail this discussion to, "We don't have the data, so we can't make a decision" is your end.

Great.  So throw our hands up in the air, and ignore the data we do have because it isn't perfect.  The idea here is to save PEOPLE.  Of course not at ANY cost, but what we must do what we can. 

I think at this point, you are presupposing that everyone is infected.  They aren't.  Most people are NOT infected.  You test to find out who is infected so that they get isolated to contain spread.  This is how we lower the curve.

The idea in situations like this is to plan for the worst, and hope for the best.  As an analogy, you don't build a bridge to the weight capacity that is expected, you exceed it in every way that is affordable and realistic in case mistakes are made.  The same applies to health care.  Obviously, we all will have different opinions of what is too far, and what isn't enough.

[Hards Alumni]

Given that there are under 8,000 deaths globally right now. I think that's a pretty likely outcome.

If you think only 8,000 people have died globally, I have a bridge to sell you.

[skianth16]

If you think only 8,000 people have died globally, I have a bridge to sell you.

What makes you think it's higher? What data would suggest that?

[injuryBug]

What makes you think it's higher? What data would suggest that?

The number of deaths is probably the most accurate number we have unless you are saying China his a lot. 

[Hards Alumni]

What makes you think it's higher? What data would suggest that?

Simple logic.  Do you think there is any chance that Africa isn't teeming with this?  You're assuming the numbers from China and Iran are truthful.  They aren't.  China also has extensive economic activities with Africa.  Do you really think that Africa has a total of 8 deaths?  Do you think that they have adequate resources to test their dead?  Hell no.  And you can repeat that story about most of the third world countries on the map at the top.  If there is one case confirmed, assume there are thousands infected that the government of those countries can do nothing about.  As a developed nation, we can do things to beat this back.  For them, this is wildfire, and thousands will die, probably millions.  Most won't even be counted, and we will be stuck doing mathematical estimates for years to come.

[forgetful]

I didn't get that message at all from the study. What I understood was that 4-6 week isolation measures will still lead to deaths as virus will spread again once we all come back out.

Study seems to say we gotta stay isolated until a cure/vaccine is found (up to 18 months) to prevent the deaths and overwhelming of the healthcare system

That's because I'm an idiot and you're a better reader than me.

I made the terrible mistake of reading the beginning of the CNN article, and not the actual study, then misinterpreting some of their definitions. My sincere apologies and thanks for pointing out my error.

You are right the actual article shows that the only way to avoid large scale deaths is the super aggressive strategy we are using right now, but for a long time.

If anyone is actually interested in reading the original study, it is below. There are actually a lot of statistics on what would happen under the varying strategies people are discussing here, with actual changes in the expected number of deaths. So if people are looking for numbers, they are there.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Evers just shut down k-12 schools indefinitely.

All bars and restaurants are closed except for takeout and delivery.

[skianth16]

Simple logic.  Do you think there is any chance that Africa isn't teeming with this?  You're assuming the numbers from China and Iran are truthful.  They aren't.  China also has extensive economic activities with Africa.  Do you really think that Africa has a total of 8 deaths?  Do you think that they have adequate resources to test their dead?  Hell no.  And you can repeat that story about most of the third world countries on the map at the top.  If there is one case confirmed, assume there are thousands infected that the government of those countries can do nothing about.  As a developed nation, we can do things to beat this back.  For them, this is wildfire, and thousands will die, probably millions.  Most won't even be counted, and we will be stuck doing mathematical estimates for years to come.

I'll concede the fact that there are some underdeveloped nations that may not have accurate totals. I don't think changing the estimate from 8,000 known deaths to millions is at all reasonable, though. 

And back to the initial point, if you trusts Europe's numbers, which are under 1,000 right now, I think the US remaining under 10,000 fatalities is very reasonable to assume. There just don't seem to be any numbers anywhere to support massive fatalities in the US.

[injuryBug]

so at this point why not have those over 60 and those with pre existing conditions in lockdown and let the rest of us go about our business and let this thing run its course.  From the sound of it that would have a minimal impact on hospitals and keep them running well. 

[Hards Alumni]

I'll concede the fact that there are some underdeveloped nations that may not have accurate totals. I don't think changing the estimate from 8,000 known deaths to millions is at all reasonable, though. 

And back to the initial point, if you trusts Europe's numbers, which are under 1,000 right now, I think the US remaining under 10,000 fatalities is very reasonable to assume. There just don't seem to be any numbers anywhere to support massive fatalities in the US.

No, not millions yet, but it is certainly a possibility in the months to come.  Europe is still on the upswing on this as well.  China and South Korea are the only two on the down slope in my opinion, and their extreme measures have decreased their curve to absolutely manageable levels.  People there can still get sick, but with the testing and quarantining people who become sick they can shut down the community spread.  We have not done enough yet in the US to shut it down.  Lock it down, identify cases, stop the spread.  That is something we can work with.  Especially since we are trending in that direction anyway.  The only way to enforce this is big fines, and jail time.  I imagine that we will be seeing the National Guard out in the not to distant future making sure things don't get out of hand.

[Hards Alumni]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Great article breaking down the math aspect of this in more simple terms.

[reinko]

Feel like this will be like a broken record after a while...but looking very likely a buddy of mine has it.  Was feeling fine last Wed/Thur, by Friday spiked fever, cough, chills, achy, negative flu test, but no doctor can give him one for COVID.

Works on Wall Street, no travel the past few months...self isolating in a spare bedroom with his wife his wife and 3 kiddos in the other parts of the house.

Prayers up for just fluids, rest, and some time for this to run its course.

[Hards Alumni]

so at this point why not have those over 60 and those with pre existing conditions in lockdown and let the rest of us go about our business and let this thing run its course.  From the sound of it that would have a minimal impact on hospitals and keep them running well.

Fauci: If you're young, you're less vulnerable than me, but you're not invulnerable, and you don't want to put loved ones at risk. "Please co-operate with us."

[Not A Serious Person]

Kevin Durant among four Nets players to test positive for coronavirus

Four players for the Nets have tested positive for the coronavirus, and one is exhibiting symptoms while the other three are asymptomatic, the team announced Tuesday.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28917855/four-nets-players-test-positive-coronavirus

[injuryBug]

Fauci: If you're young, you're less vulnerable than me, but you're not invulnerable, and you don't want to put loved ones at risk. "Please co-operate with us."

so what happens 2 months from now when the lockdown is lifted and we all go out into the world again.  March 12 all over again until we get the vaccine out there.  I am staying in lockdown for now but i want my freedom back

[Coleman]

Given that there are under 8,000 deaths globally right now, I think that's a pretty likely outcome.

I disagree. I would not be surprised if we see 6 figure deaths. No one is taking it seriously yet. Beaches in Florida are still packed. This is going to get ugly fast.

[Hards Alumni]

so what happens 2 months from now when the lockdown is lifted and we all go out into the world again.  March 12 all over again until we get the vaccine out there.  I am staying in lockdown for now but i want my freedom back

By then there is a bit of herd immunity.  Once again, the idea is to slow the rate of infection.  We slow it to wait for the vaccine and to keep our health care system from being overrun.  Once we can control or slow the outbreak enough, we can go back to normal life.

Currently, there doesn't seem to be any evidence that people can become infected again once they have it.  Now, I'm hopeful that this is the case, and it is more like chicken pox... but we could get really unlucky with this and it could mutate and make our antibodies ineffective.  But that is something time will tell.

[Jockey]

By then there is a bit of herd immunity.  Once again, the idea is to slow the rate of infection.  We slow it to wait for the vaccine and to keep our health care system from being overrun.  Once we can control or slow the outbreak enough, we can go back to normal life.

That's the part most people don't get. We are not going to stop the spread, so we can only try to control it.

[Eldon]

I don't need research, my whole point was that if the concern is how quickly we overwhelm capacity none of the data you've been presenting truly matters. The number positive cases doesn't matter because a minor case has little to no impact on capacity, but positive cases that convert to hospitalizations which is what consumes capacity (and how long those beds are occupied by a single patient). Without that information we're just guessing and the sheer volume of positive tests will continue to drive fear.

For the record, I'm not saying you are wrong or the worst isn't about to hit, I'm just saying the data we are using is wrong.

Positive cases is a leading indicator of deaths.

That's why it's an important metric it helps us understand how much capacity we will need.

[injuryBug]

That's the part most people don't get. We are not going to stop the spread, so we can only try to control it.

I get the slowing the spread but The majority of the herd is inside avoiding it.  So to me it will be worse once we all come out to play.  Warm temps have no impact.  I do not see an end until the vaccine comes out several months from now. 

[RJax55]

I'm beginning to wonder the prevalence of asymptomatic cases of COVID-19.

I read an article back a few weeks ago interviewing Bruce Aylward from the WHO on China's COVID-19 response. He stated that the Chinese thought that asymptomatic cases were quite rare. However, we now have three instances of cases involving groups of people that were tested (whether sick or not), where individuals tested positive and were asymptomatic. Grand Princess (Japan), the Utah Jazz and now the Brooklyn Nets. Certainly a very small subset to look at, but each group had individuals that were asymptomatic COVID-19 cases.

Since no country is testing all citizens, there's really no way to figure out how many cases end up being asymptomatic. I'm starting to think it is a great deal higher than what the Chinese found.