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Author Topic: More conference realignment talk  (Read 318768 times)

SaveOD238

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2400 on: June 08, 2023, 11:29:57 AM »
Had dinner the other night with a big SMU booster. They are furiously trying to lobby for a PAC-12 or Big 12 invite.

Their basic strategy is to keep upping NIL dollars to improve performance on the football  field and basketball court.

As they should be.  I don't think the Big 12 will have much interest unless they really feel the need to be in the Metroplex.  But it feels like an easy move for the PAC.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2401 on: June 08, 2023, 11:31:35 AM »
As they should be.  I don't think the Big 12 will have much interest unless they really feel the need to be in the Metroplex.  But it feels like an easy move for the PAC.


They already are in the metroplex with TCU.
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Uncle Rico

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2402 on: June 08, 2023, 12:09:10 PM »

They already are in the metroplex with TCU.

It’s bad enough having Christians, Mormons and Orlando.  No reason to bring in Mehodists
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WhiteTrash

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2403 on: June 08, 2023, 01:08:20 PM »

They already are in the metroplex with TCU.
Maybe he thinks the Big10 added UCLA after USC to get the LA market.  ;D

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2404 on: June 08, 2023, 06:00:56 PM »
You contradicted your central point when getting back to the conference actually under discussion. Truly anything could happen with the Big 12 in the next 5-20 years. That should factor into UConn’s decision.

Less bad can happen with the B12 than the BEast in the next 5-20 years. That should factor into UConn's decision (along with several other factors, some that favor the B12, some the BEast).

Honestly, I think it is all moot for now. I don't think they will get an invite any time soon.
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The Lens

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2405 on: June 08, 2023, 09:30:30 PM »
Less bad can happen with the B12 than the BEast in the next 5-20 years. That should factor into UConn's decision (along with several other factors, some that favor the B12, some the BEast).

Honestly, I think it is all moot for now. I don't think they will get an invite any time soon.

Totally disagree.   Unless you’re in the SEC or Big 10 you’re in the same boat just shuffling deck chairs.  UConn wants to join a conference that called Cinci & UCF first? Good luck. 

The Big East is a known entity.  The Big 12 is fly by the seat of their pants.  Some days those pants are Lululemon, most days those pants are Lee jeans. 
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2406 on: June 09, 2023, 12:13:10 AM »
Totally disagree.   Unless you’re in the SEC or Big 10 you’re in the same boat just shuffling deck chairs.  UConn wants to join a conference that called Cinci & UCF first? Good luck. 

The Big East is a known entity.  The Big 12 is fly by the seat of their pants.  Some days those pants are Lululemon, most days those pants are Lee jeans.

If that's the analogy you want to use sure. The B12 is Lee jeans with the potential to be Lululemon. The BEast is just straight Lee jeans. As you said we are a known entity. We are never going to be one of the top 3 conferences. It will always be the SEC, B1G, a big gap, and then whoever emerges from the next round of realignment...and all current signs point to the B12 being that third conference. And bluntly, we are only safe because thus far the top 3 conferences haven't expressed any interest in adding basketball only schools. If that ever changes, the BEast is toast.

I think it is easy to fall in the trap of focusing on the past instead of the future. There was a long a time where the B12 was shuffling deck chairs along with the P12 and ACC. I admittedly thought that the P12 would be the one to come out on top of the other two. I thought they're geography would insulate them and they're exclusive access to the west coast markets would let them thrive. The B1G all but killed them when they took USC and UCLA and now they look like a dead conference walking. On the other side of the country, the top programs in the ACC are being held hostage by the crappy bottom half and the grant of rights. Once the B1G and SEC decide it's time, they will convince enough of the top ACC schools to band together to dissolve the conference and take whatever ones they want.

Again, all that being said, I don't think the current invite to UConn is real. Maybe one day in the future it will be.
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GoldenWarrior11

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2407 on: June 09, 2023, 05:30:51 AM »
Less bad can happen with the B12 than the BEast in the next 5-20 years. That should factor into UConn's decision (along with several other factors, some that favor the B12, some the BEast).

Honestly, I think it is all moot for now. I don't think they will get an invite any time soon.

Not so sure about that prediction, TAMU. 

The Big 12 got incredibly lucky at being at the right place, at the right time, in terms of a new TV deal.  It didn't gamble, took what it could, and got a safety net wrapped around itself at the same time the PAC is in shambles because its leadership believed it was deserving of more money and exposure (which it is still not getting).  The only thing keeping the PAC together at present is the false premise of academics and California exposure.  Well, TV execs don't pay for academics in athletic brand evaluations, and the PAC just lost the entire LA market to the B1G. 

The Big 12 may very well be the last of the Major Three standing, but it won't be because of athletic brands, long-term athletic strategic planning or by simply being the best of the rest; it will be because of timing, luck and geography. 

The Big East will remain strong as a non-football league moving forward.  It has successful athletic brands (Villanova, Marquette, Georgetown, Creighton, St. John's, Xavier), major media markets (Chicago, New York City, D.C., Philadelphia, Cincinnati, etc.) and proven on-court success against football-first entities and institutions.  BE schools already made their bed once with football, and it ended in disaster.  The second they get back into them, they become secondary in conference direction and membership. 

UConn will inevitably return to an all-sports conference, and it will be a great thing for them.  Thankfully, the BE has proven that it doesn't need UConn in order to be successful.  The BE will be just fine, and all of this perceived smoke around the Big 12 is just hot air.  They have a mouthy commissioner is proclaiming that the league is interested in every single program from the West Coast to the East Coast, all-sports or non-football.  He is doing his job positioning his league about the PAC and ACC.  I very much prefer our commissioner that has allowed our success do the talking, and not put it on stickers, field markers or flashy advertisements attempting to sell the public on something we are not.

WhiteTrash

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2408 on: June 09, 2023, 08:28:45 AM »
Totally disagree.   Unless you’re in the SEC or Big 10 you’re in the same boat just shuffling deck chairs.  UConn wants to join a conference that called Cinci & UCF first? Good luck. 

The Big East is a known entity.  The Big 12 is fly by the seat of their pants.  Some days those pants are Lululemon, most days those pants are Lee jeans.
I agree with your take on the Big East.

Your take on the Big XII is way off. You may not understand the significance of football in relation to basketball. Then pair that with the passion and money involved with southern football and you have the 3rd most significant/powerful conference in college sports. The Big XII is legit, "little" TCU has done what Wisconsin, UCLA, Nebraska, Penn State have never accomplished by playing in the CFP championship. ALSO, the Big XII is the best in college basketball. (The Big East is a strong #2)

Viper

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2409 on: June 09, 2023, 08:40:41 AM »
…can’t speak for Nebraska, but in fairness to PSU, they do have a Michigan, Ohio State roadblock every year. Just sayin’. (Definitely true on TCU)
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The Lens

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2410 on: June 09, 2023, 08:58:56 AM »
I completely understand the worth of hoops relative to football.  What I am not sold on is the Big 12 love.

Look at the brands in the Pac-12

Oregon
Washington
Stanford
Cal
Colorado
Arizona
Utah
ASU
Washington State

Now do the top 9 of the Big 12

Kansas
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
Baylor
TCU
Iowa State
Kansas State
BYU
Cinci

Kansas (historically terrible at football) and West Va are the only flagship University's in their respective state. The rest rank in their own state like this:

Oklahoma State #2
Baylor #3 at best
TCU #4
Iowa State #2
Kansas State #2
BYU N/A
Cinci #2 but it feels like #5

It's a leftover league.  And UConn wants to jump into a league that called UCF & Cinci first?  For what?  A seat at kid's table, maybe?

« Last Edit: June 09, 2023, 09:01:02 AM by The Lens »
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The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2411 on: June 09, 2023, 09:06:13 AM »
I agree with your take on the Big East.

Your take on the Big XII is way off. You may not understand the significance of football in relation to basketball. Then pair that with the passion and money involved with southern football and you have the 3rd most significant/powerful conference in college sports. The Big XII is legit, "little" TCU has done what Wisconsin, UCLA, Nebraska, Penn State have never accomplished by playing in the CFP championship. ALSO, the Big XII is the best in college basketball. (The Big East is a strong #2)


I'm going to push back a little on this.  The basic problem with the Big 12 is that I don't believe any of their schools would be considered the most popular programs in their state outside of Kansas and West Virginia. The rest are all "runners up" to schools in other conferences. (BYU is a little different I know.)

So I can see why the Pac 12 schools aren't really all that excited about leaving. Outside of California, they are the largest schools in their respective markets.  And if they make a couple of decent additions, they might be in a better place in the long term than the Big 12 could be.

EDIT: Lens pretty much said the same thing.
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lawdog77

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2412 on: June 09, 2023, 09:14:02 AM »
Is the PAC 12 trying to recruit Big 12 schools to jump, or is it a one way street?

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2413 on: June 09, 2023, 09:21:25 AM »
I completely understand the worth of hoops relative to football.  What I am not sold on is the Big 12 love.

Look at the brands in the Pac-12

Oregon
Washington
Stanford
Cal
Colorado
Arizona
Utah
ASU
Washington State

Now do the top 9 of the Big 12

Kansas
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
Baylor
TCU
Iowa State
Kansas State
BYU
Cinci

Kansas (historically terrible at football) and West Va are the only flagship University's in their respective state. The rest rank in their own state like this:

Oklahoma State #2
Baylor #3 at best
TCU #4
Iowa State #2
Kansas State #2
BYU N/A
Cinci #2 but it feels like #5

It's a leftover league.  And UConn wants to jump into a league that called UCF & Cinci first?  For what?  A seat at kid's table, maybe?

This exactly why the B12 is stable.  They are an established power conference with no programs in danger of being poached.  The PAC 12 has better programs and that's why the B1G is going to gut them. The top of the ACC is also better than any B12 program and that's why the SEC and B1g are going to gut them. The B12 will then pick up the leftovers.

You're right,  the B12 is a leftover conference.  But it is still a power conference with football.
TAMU

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The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2414 on: June 09, 2023, 09:23:13 AM »
Is the PAC 12 trying to recruit Big 12 schools to jump, or is it a one way street?

They aren't now. But they don't have a media deal to offer. The larger question is...who would they want?
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

Coleman

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2415 on: June 09, 2023, 10:00:06 AM »

I'm going to push back a little on this.  The basic problem with the Big 12 is that I don't believe any of their schools would be considered the most popular programs in their state outside of Kansas and West Virginia. The rest are all "runners up" to schools in other conferences. (BYU is a little different I know.)

So I can see why the Pac 12 schools aren't really all that excited about leaving. Outside of California, they are the largest schools in their respective markets.  And if they make a couple of decent additions, they might be in a better place in the long term than the Big 12 could be.

EDIT: Lens pretty much said the same thing.

But why does this matter? Texas is massive and football crazy. Being the #3 and #4 schools in Texas is still better than being the #1 school in Washington or Arizona.

The Lens

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2416 on: June 09, 2023, 10:01:00 AM »
TAMU, I am of the opinion that the Big 10 + SEC will each go to 20-24 teams that will define "power" football.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2417 on: June 09, 2023, 10:06:56 AM »
TAMU, I am of the opinion that the Big 10 + SEC will each go to 20-24 teams that will define "power" football.

I agree. And the B12 will follow suit and be the third power conference. A distant third but a shorter distant than the distant between the B12 and the rest of the field
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lawdog77

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2418 on: June 09, 2023, 10:09:32 AM »
They aren't now. But they don't have a media deal to offer. The larger question is...who would they want?
Could they get one if they poached BYU, Kansas State, TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State?

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2419 on: June 09, 2023, 10:49:09 AM »
But why does this matter? Texas is massive and football crazy. Being the #3 and #4 schools in Texas is still better than being the #1 school in Washington or Arizona.

Is it? I would bet that more people watch regular season University of Washington football games than TCU ones.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

The Lens

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2420 on: June 09, 2023, 10:51:16 AM »
Is it? I would bet that more people watch regular season University of Washington football games than TCU ones.

Exactly.  Washington is on the Big ten's short list.  TCU is no where near it.
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Coleman

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2421 on: June 09, 2023, 12:08:05 PM »
Is it? I would bet that more people watch regular season University of Washington football games than TCU ones.

You'd be wrong. And it isn't even that close. TCU and Baylor are both ahead of Washington. Arizona isn't even top 50.

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd

Ohio State — 5.80M
Alabama — 5.11M
Michigan — 4.37M
Tennessee — 4.13M
Georgia — 3.50M
Notre Dame — 3.30M
LSU — 3.22M
Texas — 3.06M
Penn State — 3.05M
Clemson — 2.59M
Florida — 2.57M
Oregon — 2.21M
TCU — 2.20M
Southern Cal — 2.07M
Florida State — 2.03M
Nebraska — 1.98M
Michigan State — 1.91M
Texas A&M — 1.87M
Maryland — 1.864M
Auburn — 1.863M
Arkansas — 1.80M
Mississippi — 1.753M
Oklahoma — 1.748M
Oklahoma State — 1.68M
UCLA — 1.591M
Wisconsin — 1.587M
Iowa — 1.50M
Kentucky — 1.35M
Baylor — 1.32M
Kansas State — 1.23M
Indiana — 1.19M
Illinois — 1.17M
Utah — 1.16M
Washington — 1.15M
Northwestern — 1.13M
Mississippi State — 1.10M
Minnesota — 1.05M
BYU — 997K
South Carolina — 990K
Navy — 976K
Washington State — 907K
Iowa State — 882K
NC State — 881K
Purdue -870K
California — 857K
North Carolina — 849K
Stanford — 846K
Syracuse — 841K
Georgia Tech — 837K
Missouri — 793K
West Virginia — 774K
Kansas — 732K
Army — 681K
Texas Tech — 680K
Cincinnati — 653K
Pittsburgh — 650K
Oregon State — 625K
Rutgers — 618K
Miami FL— 608K
Wake Forest — 523K
UCF — 510K
Arizona — 506K
Louisville — 496K
Colorado State — 386K
Tulane — 354K
Boise State — 353K
Colorado — 352.9K
Air Force — 326K
Utah State — 324K
Boston College — 322K
Arizona State — 314K
SMU — 312K
Toledo — 306K
East Carolina — 305K
Appalachian State — 298K
« Last Edit: June 09, 2023, 12:09:47 PM by Coleman »

CountryRoads

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2422 on: June 09, 2023, 12:40:41 PM »
This exactly why the B12 is stable.  They are an established power conference with no programs in danger of being poached.

What am I missing with this statement? Their two premier programs were just poached, no? SEC or Big10 gives Kansas a phone call and that conference is looking very AACish.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2423 on: June 09, 2023, 01:04:03 PM »
You'd be wrong. And it isn't even that close. TCU and Baylor are both ahead of Washington. Arizona isn't even top 50.

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd

Ohio State — 5.80M
Alabama — 5.11M
Michigan — 4.37M
Tennessee — 4.13M
Georgia — 3.50M
Notre Dame — 3.30M
LSU — 3.22M
Texas — 3.06M
Penn State — 3.05M
Clemson — 2.59M
Florida — 2.57M
Oregon — 2.21M
TCU — 2.20M
Southern Cal — 2.07M
Florida State — 2.03M
Nebraska — 1.98M
Michigan State — 1.91M
Texas A&M — 1.87M
Maryland — 1.864M
Auburn — 1.863M
Arkansas — 1.80M
Mississippi — 1.753M
Oklahoma — 1.748M
Oklahoma State — 1.68M
UCLA — 1.591M
Wisconsin — 1.587M
Iowa — 1.50M
Kentucky — 1.35M
Baylor — 1.32M
Kansas State — 1.23M
Indiana — 1.19M
Illinois — 1.17M
Utah — 1.16M
Washington — 1.15M
Northwestern — 1.13M
Mississippi State — 1.10M
Minnesota — 1.05M
BYU — 997K
South Carolina — 990K
Navy — 976K
Washington State — 907K
Iowa State — 882K
NC State — 881K
Purdue -870K
California — 857K
North Carolina — 849K
Stanford — 846K
Syracuse — 841K
Georgia Tech — 837K
Missouri — 793K
West Virginia — 774K
Kansas — 732K
Army — 681K
Texas Tech — 680K
Cincinnati — 653K
Pittsburgh — 650K
Oregon State — 625K
Rutgers — 618K
Miami FL— 608K
Wake Forest — 523K
UCF — 510K
Arizona — 506K
Louisville — 496K
Colorado State — 386K
Tulane — 354K
Boise State — 353K
Colorado — 352.9K
Air Force — 326K
Utah State — 324K
Boston College — 322K
Arizona State — 314K
SMU — 312K
Toledo — 306K
East Carolina — 305K
Appalachian State — 298K


I stand corrected.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2424 on: June 09, 2023, 02:40:20 PM »
What am I missing with this statement? Their two premier programs were just poached, no? SEC or Big10 gives Kansas a phone call and that conference is looking very AACish.

Yes their top 2 programs are just poached and I believe those were the last two that the SEC or B1G would have any interest in. Moving forward,  I think all the poaching is going to be in the ACC and P12
TAMU

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