MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: kryza on March 10, 2018, 02:29:08 PM
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So Dan Gavitt was on CBS explaining what the selection committee is valuing this year. He specifically mentioned that road losses to bottom half teams in good conferences don't matter very much this year. However, good road wins are very important.
That sounds really good for our chances!
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#HomeGamesNoMatta
#SuccesStartsOnTheRoad
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So Dan Gavitt was on CBS explaining what the selection committee is valuing this year. He specifically mentioned that road losses to bottom half teams in good conferences don't matter very much this year. However, good road wins are very important.
That sounds really good for our chances!
How about road lossess to teams that just beat Duke and Villanova?
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I saw that, he also said they basically have 35 at large teams already in, of course that could change. We’ve got a good road record I hope we’re in.
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Marquette against teams not currently in the RPI Top 10: 19-6.
#PutUsIn
#nh
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Based on last year’s Tournament seeding and this year’s “Top 16 reveal” its clear that losses matter very little. Who you beat and where you beat them is by far the most important thing.
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How about road lossess to teams that just beat Duke and Villanova?
Yeah St John's too. Basically our two worst losses are going to be valued less this year. That's great news imo
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So Dan Gavitt was on CBS explaining what the selection committee is valuing this year. He specifically mentioned that road losses to bottom half teams in good conferences don't matter very much this year. However, good road wins are very important.
That sounds really good for our chances!
Every time I hear someone talking about what the committee is placing emphasis on this year, I think "that's good for Marquette." It's almost like they're defending the decision to include us before the field is announced.
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Marquette against teams not currently in the RPI Top 10: 19-6.
#PutUsIn
#nh
I love this whole string, and that is a great way to get to the central point. With one of those 6 being St. John's on the road after they just beat Duke and Nova (from foreverCrean) and that record is hard to match.
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If the focus is on wins, does St. John's get in for beating Duke and Nova...and us?
;)
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I also like this thread, gives me hope. I hope not a fools hope. We have some decent counters to some of our faults. Like losing to Nova by 24...didn’t they beat Butler by 19. And if they whip Providence, we’ll be just one of many Tourney teams rolled by a great team.
Really what I wonder about is bid stealers. Wichita State needs to win and is Arkansas a threat?
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I also like this thread, gives me hope. I hope not a fools hope. We have some decent counters to some of our faults. Like losing to Nova by 24...didn’t they beat Butler by 19. And if they whip Providence, we’ll be just one of many Tourney teams rolled by a great team.
Really what I wonder about is bid stealers. Wichita State needs to win and is Arkansas a threat?
Arkansas is a lock. Everyone remaining in the AAC is a lock. Only potential bid stealer left is Davidson.
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KenPom had @ DePaul as a "b" game and had PC at home as a nothing game.
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Of all of the things I’ve been seeing the last few days, the thing that is giving me some hope is the possibility that the Committee will focus on something like Strength of Record as an important metric that considers both quality of wins and difficulty of opponents. That helps to counter MU’s lack of a big marquee win because they have 7 losses against top 15 teams, including 5 against top 5 Villanova and Xavier. MUs SOR is better than almost all teams remaining on the bubble. The fact that all 3 of their Q1 wins are road games might help too.
As the guy from Bracketville has said, the Committee is going to have to do some careful scrubbing of several closely bunched bubble teams. Hopefully Rhode Island can win tomorrow and leave a spot open because the bubble is getting pretty tight.
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I know everyone talks about "marquee" wins, and rightly so, but I'm pretty sure I heard that the quadrant system was set up partially so, no Q1 win is bigger than another...in other words, all Q1 wins are judged equally.
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I know everyone talks about "marquee" wins, and rightly so, but I'm pretty sure I heard that the quadrant system was set up partially so, no Q1 win is bigger than another...in other words, all Q1 wins are judged equally.
This isn’t not true. And the committee chair has said as much.
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This isn’t not true. And the committee chair has said as much.
You're right, my bad...I thought i had heard that, but found an article explaining it further..but I did find something else interesting from that article...that non conference SOS is one of the lowest things on the list that they look at, in fact Rasumussen has argued every year he's been on the committee, that it should be taken off the team sheet.
Non-conference SOS is not a predominant tool in selections.
"In fact, each year that I have been on the committee, we have discussed why you have to look beyond the number to evaluate a team's non-conference strength of schedule, and even with this qualifier, non-conference schedule ranks well behind other factors such as how you did against other tournament caliber teams, did you win the games you were supposed to win, and how did you do away from home since winning away from home is difficult and the tournament games are all games away from home.
I have argued each year that I have been on the committee that non-conference SOS should be taken off the team sheet, but until we develop a new metric it is staying. However, understand that the committee understands its fallacies (as we also recognize other weaknesses in the current RPI formula) and it is not a prominent factor in decisions. "
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Marquette against teams not currently in the RPI Top 10: 19-6.
#PutUsIn
#nh
This reminded me of something. When it was announced that we were being matched up with Purdue I was concerned. I said that I thought our non-con might be too hard for our roster. Many scoffed and I understand why because we like to see Marquette play top teams. But my concern was that our non-conference would end up with us having losses to the likes of Purdue, Wichita State/Notre Dame/Michigan, and Wisconsin (they were supposed to be better) and the best wins being against Georgia and Vermont at home. Swap Wisconsin and Georgia and that's what happened. I wonder what would happen if we had beaten a team like Maryland, Nebraska, or Penn State at home (assuming we won). Would subbing a Q1 loss for a Q2 win turn us into lock? Pointless what if but I am curious
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This reminded me of something. When it was announced that we were being matched up with Purdue I was concerned. I said that I thought our non-con might be too hard for our roster. Many scoffed and I understand why because we like to see Marquette play top teams. But my concern was that our non-conference would end up with us having losses to the likes of Purdue, Wichita State/Notre Dame/Michigan, and Wisconsin (they were supposed to be better) and the best wins being against Georgia and Vermont at home. Swap Wisconsin and Georgia and that's what happened. I wonder what would happen if we had beaten a team like Maryland, Nebraska, or Penn State at home (assuming we won). Would subbing a Q1 loss for a Q2 win turn us into lock? Pointless what if but I am curious
We have been unlucky with our Gavitt games. Catching Iowa when they were really good and Purdue this year. I would expect Minnesota, Nebraska or an Illinois team in the coming years since they appear to try to keep the matchups somewhat geographical based. Certainly beating one of the B14 teams that think they're on the bubble would help, but if the comitee looks at the computer numbers as much as they have in years past, having another top ten team certainly helps a lot.
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This reminded me of something. When it was announced that we were being matched up with Purdue I was concerned. I said that I thought our non-con might be too hard for our roster. Many scoffed and I understand why because we like to see Marquette play top teams. But my concern was that our non-conference would end up with us having losses to the likes of Purdue, Wichita State/Notre Dame/Michigan, and Wisconsin (they were supposed to be better) and the best wins being against Georgia and Vermont at home. Swap Wisconsin and Georgia and that's what happened. I wonder what would happen if we had beaten a team like Maryland, Nebraska, or Penn State at home (assuming we won). Would subbing a Q1 loss for a Q2 win turn us into lock? Pointless what if but I am curious
I was really mad at the time but the one that is still stuck in my craw was that Xavier home loss. Still feel we pissed that one away. That would have been our signature win to get us over the top. That fact is any of these would have been the razor thin margin pro or con.
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I was really mad at the time but the one that is still stuck in my craw was that Xavier home loss. Still feel we pissed that one away. That would have been our signature win to get us over the top. That fact is any of these would have been the razor thin margin pro or con.
I agree, that one was winnable, and definitely SHOULD have been a win. I'd say the Butler game pissed me off too, what a dreadful performance, one that I don't think anyone saw coming. Especially against a Butler team that is so much different on the road(in fact they are flat out bad), yet, they pounded MU like they were the best team in the country...I just don't get it.