MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: tower912 on October 15, 2017, 06:36:59 PM
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http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2017/10/12/marquettes-howard-one-nations-top-shooters/751945001/
According to his brother, who oversees his offseason workouts, it is possible. I admire his brother's optimism, but I think that being the top priority on the oppositions' defensive plan will impact the number and quality of looks he gets. But hey, let's hope I am wrong and the elder Howard is right.
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No, hey?
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I think Howard shooting sub-40% is more likely than shooting 60% or greater. It's rare that a guy hits 50+% and follows it up with anything remotely comparable.
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I think Howard shooting sub-40% is more likely than shooting 60% or greater. It's rare that a guy hits 50+% and follows it up with anything remotely comparable.
Disagree. I'd give him a 10% chance to shoot 60%+ and a 0.1% chance to shoot under 40%
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Nobody with enough makes to qualify has ever done it as far as I can tell so it seems unlikely ..... I remain hopeful that Markus becomes the greatest shooter in NCAA history and proves me wrong.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/leaders/fg3-pct-player-yearly.html
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Disagree. I'd give him a 10% chance to shoot 60%+ and a 0.1% chance to shoot under 40%
Flip that to 10% chance to shoot under 40% and 0.1% chance to shoot over 60% and then subtract 0.1% chance from both of those and you got it.
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Ha--exactly. That's the formula right there.
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Well 6 out of 10 is Difficult but not Impossible.
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It's not impossible for Ners to fall in love with Derrick Wilson ether but seems about as likely as Markus shooting 60% from 3 for an entire season .......
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Maybe he goes 6 for his first 10 and then blows out a knee?
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He shot 57% in conference play last year and with his work ethic + intelligence, there's not a chance in hell he shoots under 40%, even with the inevitably increased focus from opposing defenses. I was being generous with the 0.1%.
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I think Howard shooting sub-40% is more likely than shooting 60% or greater. It's rare that a guy hits 50+% and follows it up with anything remotely comparable.
^^^^^^^ This
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If he shoots at the same rate but over minutes and eclipses 45%, I'm dancing in the streets
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It's not impossible for Ners to fall in love with Derrick Wilson ether but seems about as likely as Markus shooting 60% from 3 for an entire season .......
If I had the choice of the two, I'm still sticking with Markus.
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I also doubt he shoots 60%. As I said, being at the top of the scouting report means he is unlikely to get many wide open looks. I agree with JB. (and that hurts) Anything over 45% is great.
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?-(
Well 6 out of 10 is Difficult but not Impossible.
Yes, very difficult, considering 60% has never happened for a season.
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Disagree. I'd give him a 10% chance to shoot 60%+ and a 0.1% chance to shoot under 40%
Let's just look at the past decade of shooters to qualify for the shooting title that made over 50% of their three-point attempts, and see how they did the following year. I am only including players that returned for another season after they made 50+%. Scroll the code box to see all 28 qualifying players of the past decade.
Season Player 50+% Season Next Season
2007 Jeremy Crouch 50.0% 39.9%
Josh Carter 50.0% 38.0%
John Baumann 50.9% 30.1%
Marquis Ford 51.0% 28.0%
Shaun Green 51.2% 37.6%
Tyler Billings 51.7% 34.5%
Harris Mansell 53.0% 44.7%
2008 Alan Voskuil 50.0% 43.5%
Brandis Raley-Ross 51.4% 31.4%
Darren Collison 52.5% 39.4%
Kyle Duncan 55.1% 38.8%
2009 Michael Roll 51.5% 42.6%
TJ Campbell 53.1% 42.6%
2010 Brian Green 50.0% 46.9%
Mickey McConnell 51.0% 45.6%
2011 Khalid Mutakabbir 50.0% 29.7%
Jordan Dyskstra 51.5% 47.3%
2012 Kris Davis 59.8% 33.1%
2013 Kasey Wilson 50.0% 36.3%
John Schoof 50.7% 39.0%
Will Barrett 51.6% 36.9%
2014 Nate Buss 50.0% 40.8%
Brandon Pye 51.4% 40.5%
Micah Mason 56.0% 44.5%
2015 Cornell Johnston 50.0% 38.1%
James McGee 50.8% 41.8%
2016 Aaron Bodager 50.0% 34.8%
Giddy Potts 50.3% 38.5%
So in the past decade, 28 qualifying players have made 50% or greater on threes and come back for a subsequent season. 17/28 shot under 40% the following season. Only 11 were able to break that 40% mark and of those only 3 hit 45+%. None were able to hit 50% again after a 50+% qualifying season, though Micah Mason did have consecutive 50% seasons but the first one was a non-qualifying season.
Just looking historically, over the past decade, not only does it indicate that it is highly unlikely Markus would follow up his 50+% qualifying season with an improvement (no one did), the odds are better than he falls below 40% than he is able to connect on 40+% again.
He shot 57% in conference play last year and with his work ethic + intelligence, there's not a chance in hell he shoots under 40%, even with the inevitably increased focus from opposing defenses. I was being generous with the 0.1%.
I sincerely hope he bucks the statistics and reaches the 60% mark, but it is far, far, far more likely that he will be in the 30s, and history would indicate that Howard shooting sub-30% (two did that) is more likely than shooting 60+%. All of your number projections are vastly off based off historical precedent.
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?-(Yes, very difficult, considering 60% has never happened for a season.
Does that mean it will never Happen.
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Does that mean it will never Happen.
It probably will, but my guess is it will come from either a freshman or a player that has not connected on 50% in the past. After you go for 50+%, every opponent knows to focus on that player, which makes it harder to match previous accomplishments. I think that Markus' freshman year will make it harder for him to ever hit 60%.
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Thanks Brew--I think this put into perspective those who say "if MH ONLY shoots 45%, I'll be thrilled!"
If he does shoot 45%, he will do what approximately 12% of those who had the opportunity to do, did the following year. The numbers don't agree with MH shooting 50% or 45% this year.
That being said, let's do it MH!!
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I'll be happy with anything over 40%. He's like going to come down a peg because Freshman year was such a great shooting year.
Steve Novak was the best 3 point shooter in college I have ever seen.
Freshman year shot 50.5%
Sophomore year dipped down to 43%
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Does that mean it will never Happen.
Assuming this is a question, of course not. People get in trouble using absolutes like never.
60% has never happened.........anything is possible. Heck, let's see someone shoot 100%, hey?
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Assuming this is a question, of course not. People get in trouble using absolutes like never.
60% has never happened.........anything is possible. Heck, let's see someone shoot 100%, hey?
One step at a time. First break the 4 Minute mile.
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No one shooting at this clip has improved the following year. Never been done.
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Steve Novak was the best 3 point shooter in college I have ever seen.
Freshman year shot 50.5%
Sophomore year dipped down to 43%
It seems like Steve may have benefited from a particular teammate’s presence freshman year who wasn’t there sophomore year
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http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2017/10/12/marquettes-howard-one-nations-top-shooters/751945001/
According to his brother, who oversees his offseason workouts, it is possible. I admire his brother's optimism, but I think that being the top priority on the oppositions' defensive plan will impact the number and quality of looks he gets. But hey, let's hope I am wrong and the elder Howard is right.
I think it will depend on the quality of the shots. As his brother pointed out in the article, Markus is learning to move the ball more and getting the ball back with an open look. So yes I think it is possible , especially if he can rack up some early success against the cupcakes. The other thing he has going for him is that Rowsey and Sam are back as well, which will force defenses to be honest. Realistically anything north of 45 percent is still a fantastic year by any standard.
Markus continuing his form is one of the reasons I believe we will be 3rd in the Big East and making it to the second weekend of the tournament.
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Let's just look at the past decade of shooters to qualify for the shooting title that made over 50% of their three-point attempts, and see how they did the following year. I am only including players that returned for another season after they made 50+%. Scroll the code box to see all 25 qualifying players of the past decade.
Season Player 50+% Season Next Season
2007 Jeremy Crouch 50.0% 39.9%
Josh Carter 50.0% 38.0%
John Baumann 50.9% 30.1%
Marquis Ford 51.0% 28.0%
Shaun Green 51.2% 37.6%
Tyler Billings 51.7% 34.5%
Harris Mansell 53.0% 44.7%
2008 Alan Voskuil 50.0% 43.5%
Brandis Raley-Ross 51.4% 31.4%
Darren Collison 52.5% 39.4%
Kyle Duncan 55.1% 38.8%
2009 Michael Roll 51.5% 42.6%
TJ Campbell 53.1% 42.6%
2010 Brian Green 50.0% 46.9%
Mickey McConnell 51.0% 45.6%
2011 Khalid Mutakabbir 50.0% 29.7%
Jordan Dyskstra 51.5% 47.3%
2012 Kris Davis 59.8% 33.1%
2013 Kasey Wilson 50.0% 36.3%
John Schoof 50.7% 39.0%
Will Barrett 51.6% 36.9%
2015 Cornell Johnston 50.0% 38.1%
James McGee 50.8% 41.8%
2016 Aaron Bodager 50.0% 34.8%
Giddy Potts 50.3% 38.5%
So in the past decade, 25 qualifying players have made 50% or greater on threes and come back for a subsequent season. 17/25 shot under 40% the following season. Only 8 were able to break that 40% mark and of those only 3 hit 45+%. None were able to hit 50% again after a 50+% qualifying season, though Micah Mason did have consecutive 50% seasons but the first one was a non-qualifying season.
Just looking historically, over the past decade, not only does it indicate that it is highly unlikely Markus would follow up his 50+% qualifying season with an improvement (no one did), the odds are better than he falls below 40% than he is able to connect on 40+% again.
I sincerely hope he bucks the statistics and reaches the 60% mark, but it is far, far, far more likely that he will be in the 30s, and history would indicate that Howard shooting sub-30% (two did that) is more likely than shooting 60+%. All of your number projections are vastly off based off historical precedent.
How many of those people were 17 year old freshmen who also shot 48% in the highest level of international play before entering college? Historical precedent does not apply to Markus. Again, my argument is not that he WILL shoot over 60% (I gave it a 10% chance), it was that there is not a chance in hell he's shooting sub 40.
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How many of those people were 17 year old freshmen who also shot 48% in the highest level of international play before entering college? Historical precedent does not apply to Markus. Again, my argument is not that he WILL shoot over 60% (I gave it a 10% chance), it was that there is not a chance in hell he's shooting sub 40.
I'm sure you could have made up a silly exception for every single one of those guys. I'm sure the fans of their teams would've all said "they have perfect shooting form, there's no way their percentage will drop below 40%, they are still improving." Yet all of them shot worse the next year and the majority shot significantly worse.
JB is right that anything over 45% would be dancing in the streets type success. The safe assumption is somewhere in the 35-40 range. I'd love to see him do better, but it's silly to assume he will never drop below 40%. Very few are able to maintain that all four years. Hopefully Markus does, but don't be disappointed if he doesn't.
EDIT: Missed the 2014 players. Will adjust opening post to reflect those three, including Micah Mason.
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I'm sure you could have made up a silly exception for every single one of those guys. I'm sure the fans of their teams would've all said "they have perfect shooting form, there's no way their percentage will drop below 40%, they are still improving." Yet all of them shot worse the next year and the majority shot significantly worse.
JB is right that anything over 45% would be dancing in the streets type success. The safe assumption is somewhere in the 35-40 range. I'd love to see him do better, but it's silly to assume he will never drop below 40%. Very few are able to maintain that all four years. Hopefully Markus does, but don't be disappointed if he doesn't.
With the exception of Darren Collison, I haven't heard of a single player on that list. They were likely all system type guys in weaker leagues that shot 50+ as a fluke, then with roster turnover and improving competition the next year, their percentages plummeted.
Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.
Steve went 50.5%, 43%, 46.1%, 46.7% his 4 years at MU. I never said I wouldn't be happy with 45% from Markus. 43-46% like Novak's soph-senior years would still be extremely effective for us (provided it was on high volume). There is just no way Markus is shooting sub 40 this year, or any year in college.
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I also doubt he shoots 60%. As I said, being at the top of the scouting report means he is unlikely to get many wide open looks. I agree with JB. (and that hurts) Anything over 45% is great.
Gonna be a lot of shooters on scouting reports. If you’re gonna double Markus, have fun with Rowsey dropping 10 threes on you.
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With the exception of Darren Collison, I haven't heard of a single player on that list. They were likely all system type guys in weaker leagues that shot 50+ as a fluke, then with roster turnover and improving competition the next year, their percentages plummeted.
Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.
Steve went 50.5%, 43%, 46.1%, 46.7% his 4 years at MU. I never said I wouldn't be happy with 45% from Markus. 43-46% like Novak's soph-senior years would still be extremely effective for us (provided it was on high volume). There is just no way Markus is shooting sub 40 this year, or any year in college.
So name recognition is your barometer for future success? You'd be wrong about them all being low-league guys. Shaun Green played for Utah, Raley-Ross for South Carolina, Voskuil for Texas Tech, and Roll for UCLA. And the past couple years, Giddy Potts has been a very well-known name. I would be shocked if any avid college basketball fan didn't know his name.
Maybe Markus will be over 40% his entire career. If he did, he would join Jordan Dykstra and James McGee as the only players in the past decade to shoot 50% in a single season and never dip below 40% in a four-year career. But again, the numbers indicate that is highly unlikely.
I understand why people have high expectations for Howard. He had a fantastic freshman year. So did Haanif Cheatham and Duane Wilson. Let's relax before we start declaring him an all-time great (and yes, assuming he never drops below 40% for his career is doing just that).
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Gonna be a lot of shooters on scouting reports. If you’re gonna double Markus, have fun with Rowsey dropping 10 threes on you.
I think both Rowsey and Hauser have a better chance of shooting 50+% this year than Howard does.
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To me the question is do we want Howard shooting >50% again let alone 60%. If he is shooting that high of a percentage I would prefer he takes a little more risk in his shots. Not saying to take bad shots. Its really the TS% argument that I look at.
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To me the question is do we want Howard shooting >50% again let alone 60%. If he is shooting that high of a percentage I would prefer he takes a little more risk in his shots. Not saying to take bad shots. Its really the TS% argument that I look at.
TS no matta
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http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2017/10/12/marquettes-howard-one-nations-top-shooters/751945001/
According to his brother, who oversees his offseason workouts, it is possible.
Only 60%? What a pessimist!
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With the exception of Darren Collison, I haven't heard of a single player on that list. They were likely all system type guys in weaker leagues that shot 50+ as a fluke, then with roster turnover and improving competition the next year, their percentages plummeted.
Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.
Steve went 50.5%, 43%, 46.1%, 46.7% his 4 years at MU. I never said I wouldn't be happy with 45% from Markus. 43-46% like Novak's soph-senior years would still be extremely effective for us (provided it was on high volume). There is just no way Markus is shooting sub 40 this year, or any year in college.
That's why they play the games because opinions are opinions, not facts.
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That's why they play the games because opinions are opinions, not facts.
Thanks Chicos! Never would have known. Gonna bookmark this one in case I forget.
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With the exception of Darren Collison, I haven't heard of a single player on that list. They were likely all system type guys in weaker leagues that shot 50+ as a fluke, then with roster turnover and improving competition the next year, their percentages plummeted.
Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.
Steve went 50.5%, 43%, 46.1%, 46.7% his 4 years at MU. I never said I wouldn't be happy with 45% from Markus. 43-46% like Novak's soph-senior years would still be extremely effective for us (provided it was on high volume). There is just no way Markus is shooting sub 40 this year, or any year in college.
So much of Novak's shooting success was predicated on his height, though. Yes, the stroke was as pure as anyone I've seen, but he had "open" shots that would have been characterized as contested for smaller players, and a smaller player wouldn't have gotten his "difficult" shots off at all. I think that Markus will have more difficulty in maintaining year-over-year consistency, because as the book gets out on him, he's more subject to shifting defenses and matching up against taller players than Novak, who playing the 4 at 6'10" almost never had to deal with taller defenders in college.
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So much of Novak's shooting success was predicated on his height, though. Yes, the stroke was as pure as anyone I've seen, but he had "open" shots that would have been characterized as contested for smaller players, and a smaller player wouldn't have gotten his "difficult" shots off at all. I think that Markus will have more difficulty in maintaining year-over-year consistency, because as the book gets out on him, he's more subject to shifting defenses and matching up against taller players than Novak, who playing the 4 at 6'10" almost never had to deal with taller defenders in college.
While this is true, Novak also wasn't a threat to drive. Where Markus can set himself apart as one of our all-time elite scorers is by using his 3-point prowess to set up his midrange and driving game. If he can prove to do those things well too, he will add more value than Novak, who while an absolutely lights out shooter who I loved to watch, was mostly one dimensional.
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FWIW, Hanner and SI predict 18.7 PPG this year.
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/10/16/top-100-scorers-player-rankings-projections
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Rowsey at 17.4 PPG.
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A quick scan looks like Howard/Rowsey projected to be the 2nd highest scoring combo behind St. Bonnie's Mobley and Adams.
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Howard at 18.7 and Rowsey at 17.4? Damn, sign me up for that.
For fun, here are the players on the list that we will see next season:
#4 Yante Maten (19.6)
#5 Marcus Foster (19.4)
#8 Trevon Bluiett (18.8)
#11 Bonzie Colson Jr (18.7)*
#18 Shamorie Ponds (17.8)
#26 Khadeen Carrington (17.3)
#27 Kelan Martin (17.3)
#32 Marcus LoVett Jr (16.7)
#36 Jalen Brunson (16.5)
#45 Desi Rodriguez (15.9)
#49 Ethan Happ (15.5)
#53 JP Macura (15.4)
#55 Angel Delgado (15.3)
#63 Rodney Bullock (15.1)
#84 Justin Tillman (14.6)
#85 Isaac Haas (14.6)
#88 Elijah Cain (14.5)
#89 Moritz Wagner (14.5)*
Keep in mind that this same formula projected like 5 points a game for Howard last season. Fun to look at, but not all that accurate.
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Markus is a Novak-esque pure shooter. A savant.
Must we go any further?
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To summarize:
<40% = panic! MH is best case in a soph slump, worst case a bust. Team has no offensive flow.
40%-45% = though there are a few that are panicking and calling for MH to be benched for Elliot *cough*Tex*cough*. MH is still lights out and we're ecstatic about the offense
45%-55% = we're out of our minds as we're witnessing something truly special and we start to fret about the impact to 2018-19 of losing him as M2N conversation is on in full
55%+ = panic! way too much of the offense is through MH, clearly the rest of the team is a house of cards
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To summarize:
<40% = panic! MH is best case in a soph slump, worst case a bust. Team has no offensive flow.
40%-45% = though there are a few that are panicking and calling for MH to be benched for Elliot *cough*Tex*cough*. MH is still lights out and we're ecstatic about the offense
45%-55% = we're out of our minds as we're witnessing something truly special and we start to fret about the impact to 2018-19 of losing him as M2N conversation is on in full
55%+ = panic! way too much of the offense is through MH, clearly the rest of the team is a house of cards
Every scenario should have panic to be truly Scoop accurate.
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Thanks Brew--I think this put into perspective those who say "if MH ONLY shoots 45%, I'll be thrilled!"
If he does shoot 45%, he will do what approximately 12% of those who had the opportunity to do, did the following year. The numbers don't agree with MH shooting 50% or 45% this year.
That being said, let's do it MH!!
Ditto to Brew’s excellent post.
Did we forget that Howard had one of the best three-point shooting seasons in NCAA history? If he follows it up by shooting 60%, that would make him the greatest three-point shooter in the history of college basketball.
So that’s the expectations we want a 19-year-old kid is you have to be the greatest ever? You just can’t be outstanding but you have to be the greatest ever?
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Ditto to Brew’s excellent post.
Did we forget that Howard had one of the best three-point shooting seasons in NCAA history? If he follows it up by shooting 60%, that would make him the greatest three-point shooter in the history of college basketball.
So that’s the expectations we want a 19-year-old kid is you have to be the greatest ever? You just can’t be outstanding but you have to be the greatest ever?
Please point out where anybody said they are expecting Howard to shoot 60% from 3 this year.
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Just his brother.
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My favorite quote from his brother:
"The main thing we worked on is coming off screens. Different positioning on his shots, where he is going to get shots from. Using ball fakes, pump fakes; guys are going to be flying right by him. Working on the midrange. Also seeing the defense: Where is the extra pass? where can he pick up more assists?"
In other words, he's already thinking about getting more attention from the other team.
I think it's also worth noting that the above paragraph is the only time defense was mentioned in the entire article. If Markus has worked on his D in the offseason, he sure hasn't talked about it.
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BTW, is your handle the percentage you think he will shoot this year?
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Please point out where anybody said they are expecting Howard to shoot 60% from 3 this year.
It was me.
I said: If Markus doesn't shoot at least 60% from 3-point range, he will have proven to be a no-talent hack who should choose a new sport. I mean ... 59% ... what an effen loser he'd be!
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Ditto to Brew’s excellent post.
Did we forget that Howard had one of the best three-point shooting seasons in NCAA history? If he follows it up by shooting 60%, that would make him the greatest three-point shooter in the history of college basketball.
So that’s the expectations we want a 1918-year-old kid is you have to be the greatest ever? You just can’t be outstanding but you have to be the greatest ever?
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Let's just look at the past decade of shooters to qualify for the shooting title that made over 50% of their three-point attempts, and see how they did the following year. I am only including players that returned for another season after they made 50+%. Scroll the code box to see all 28 qualifying players of the past decade.
Season Player 50+% Season Next Season
2007 Jeremy Crouch 50.0% 39.9%
Josh Carter 50.0% 38.0%
John Baumann 50.9% 30.1%
Marquis Ford 51.0% 28.0%
Shaun Green 51.2% 37.6%
Tyler Billings 51.7% 34.5%
Harris Mansell 53.0% 44.7%
2008 Alan Voskuil 50.0% 43.5%
Brandis Raley-Ross 51.4% 31.4%
Darren Collison 52.5% 39.4%
Kyle Duncan 55.1% 38.8%
2009 Michael Roll 51.5% 42.6%
TJ Campbell 53.1% 42.6%
2010 Brian Green 50.0% 46.9%
Mickey McConnell 51.0% 45.6%
2011 Khalid Mutakabbir 50.0% 29.7%
Jordan Dyskstra 51.5% 47.3%
2012 Kris Davis 59.8% 33.1%
2013 Kasey Wilson 50.0% 36.3%
John Schoof 50.7% 39.0%
Will Barrett 51.6% 36.9%
2014 Nate Buss 50.0% 40.8%
Brandon Pye 51.4% 40.5%
Micah Mason 56.0% 44.5%
2015 Cornell Johnston 50.0% 38.1%
James McGee 50.8% 41.8%
2016 Aaron Bodager 50.0% 34.8%
Giddy Potts 50.3% 38.5%
So in the past decade, 28 qualifying players have made 50% or greater on threes and come back for a subsequent season. 17/28 shot under 40% the following season. Only 11 were able to break that 40% mark and of those only 3 hit 45+%. None were able to hit 50% again after a 50+% qualifying season, though Micah Mason did have consecutive 50% seasons but the first one was a non-qualifying season.
Just looking historically, over the past decade, not only does it indicate that it is highly unlikely Markus would follow up his 50+% qualifying season with an improvement (no one did), the odds are better than he falls below 40% than he is able to connect on 40+% again.
I sincerely hope he bucks the statistics and reaches the 60% mark, but it is far, far, far more likely that he will be in the 30s, and history would indicate that Howard shooting sub-30% (two did that) is more likely than shooting 60+%. All of your number projections are vastly off based off historical precedent.
My 2nd round and NBA bench warmer knowledge is admittedly sparse, but how many of these guys ever cracked a NBA roster? Maybe no M2NBA?
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Darren Collison Still playing in the NBA,....He was drafted by the Hornets in the first round with the 21st overall pick of the 2009 NBA draft. And actually finished 4th for Rookie of the year... 8-)
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Should probably put this on the Doom thread in the Superbar ...
Markus only went 3-for-6 from 3 in the exhibition at the Al vs. UWM.
Fifty effen percent. Ugh.
He sucks, and we might as well cancel the season.
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Should probably put this on the Doom thread in the Superbar ...
Markus only went 3-for-6 from 3 in the exhibition at the Al vs. UWM.
Fifty effen percent. Ugh.
He sucks, and we might as well cancel the season.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/JPKqrPuFGQ4cE/200.gif)
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Way too early indications, 60% no. 50% no. That can all change when it gets real this week, but some struggles very early in two exhibition games.
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Way too early indications, 60% no. 50% no. That can all change when it gets real this week, but some struggles very early in two exhibition games.
Curious where the narrative that he shot poorly in the UWM scrimmage is coming from.
Wasn't he 3/6 from deep in that game?
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Disagree. I'd give him a 10% chance to shoot 60%+ and a 0.1% chance to shoot under 40%
You really think he has a chance to be the greatest shooter of all time?
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You really think he has a chance to be the greatest shooter of all time?
10% chance, yes. Which is low odds.
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10% chance, yes. Which is low odds.
Actually those are very high odds. If there are 3500 players in the NCAA today (probably an underestimation) those odds are 350x the average. If you assume 3500 players every four years (likely another gross underestimation) his odds are 1575x that of the average player this millennium.
I'd argue that Markus having odds that are nearly 1600x that of the average player in the past 18 years of being the best of all time aren't just high, they are astronomically high.
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Actually those are very high odds. If there are 3500 players in the NCAA today (probably an underestimation) those odds are 350x the average. If you assume 3500 players every four years (likely another gross underestimation) his odds are 1575x that of the average player this millennium.
I'd argue that Markus having odds that are nearly 1600x that of the average player in the past 18 years of being the best of all time aren't just high, they are astronomically high.
Not sure this math is right.
Regardless, he already had the 2nd best 3 point shooting year of all time. His odds to have the best shooting season of all time should be much, much higher than the average player.
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I'm assuming 15,750 players this millennium. 1/15,750 = 0.0000635. that's 0.00635%. So if we assume Markus is 1000x more likely than the average player, shift the decimal three places and it's still 6.35%, which is well under your 10% figure.
Even with his great season, I doubt he's 1000x more likely than average. I'd say somewhere under 1% would be accurate.
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Curious where the narrative that he shot poorly in the UWM scrimmage is coming from.
Wasn't he 3/6 from deep in that game?
To shoot 60% for the season, or even 50% for the season, requires consistency throughout. In the first two games he is shooting 23% from behind the arc. It takes only a stinker in a game or two to torpedo the avg.
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To shoot 60% for the season, or even 50% for the season, requires consistency throughout. In the first two games he is shooting 23% from behind the arc. It takes only a stinker in a game or two to torpedo the avg.
So he didn't shoot poorly in the UWM scrimmage. Got it.
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He was never going to shoot 60% from 3 for season. It was a quote from his brother.
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15/49. 30.6%
He's halfway there already!
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Yeah, we need Markus to find his stroke.
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Yeah, we need Markus to find his stroke.
We need him to get healthy first. Leg and ankle dragging.
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15/49. 30.6%
He's halfway there already!
36 in a row gets him there!
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36 in a row gets him there!
Doable.
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Sounds great. 12 against Wisconsin, 12 against Vermont, 12 against Georgia.
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I've seen every minute Markus has played at home up until tonight. Even all the way back to the private practice and then the UWM charity scrimmage his shot was a bit off. I'm not worried as he is doing other things significantly better than last year. If memory serves he got 'hot' one half out in Maui. Perhaps tonight is the breakout. Markus needs a little confidence in his long range stroke.
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Sounds great. 12 against Wisconsin, 12 against Vermont, 12 against Georgia.
Last year, MU had talented scorers all over the line-up, this year they do not. Took a lot of open 3's last year, if he shoots 40% will be good.
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We need him to get healthy first. Leg and ankle dragging.
Get up by 25 early tonight and start the resting program for Howard during these cupcakes. His health issues are going to burn us in February.
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Get up by 25 early tonight and start the resting program for Howard during these cupcakes. His health issues are going to burn us in February.
Why even play him tonight?
Chicago St. is very likely to be the worst team we play all year. Rest him and get him ready for the next three games.
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Get up by 25 early tonight and start the resting program for Howard during these cupcakes. His health issues are going to burn us in February.
If he's hurt and his playing tonight will burn us in February why is he suiting up tonight? I mean, Chicago St...c'mon.
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If he can play without further injury, it’s no big deal.
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If he can play without further injury, it’s no big deal.
I agree, but 'Lanche is saying that's not the case.
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Why even play him tonight?
Chicago St. is very likely to be the worst team we play all year. Rest him and get him ready for the next three games.
Because we only have 3 guards.........
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Because we only have 3 guards.........
Thats enough to get past Chicago St.
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But 2 may be not......
People need to relax.....if he is healthy enough to play he is going to play......I'm sure Wojo will watch his minutes if he is hurting and the score allows it.
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Yeah, we need Markus to find his stroke.
Ya reely hada go der, hey?
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Ya reely hada go der, hey?
You disagree? Or gonna poke fun at the word stroke?
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36 in a row gets him there!
32 to go!
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8-10 dont count him out
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Up to 39%
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Heard this stat during Maui and have not seen it here ...
Andrew Rowsey is #2 among current college basketball players made threes for a career. #1 is Jordan Howard, Markus' older brother at Central Arkansas
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Up to 39%
41% now
Pretty sure that's an MU record for made 3s in a game (breaking his own that he tied)
LOL at the "I told you sos" 6 games into the season
#M2N
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Get up by 25 early tonight and start the resting program for Howard during these cupcakes. His health issues are going to burn us in February.
Still in up 25 with under 4 to go. Wojo must not care about February.
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Still in up 25 with under 4 to go. Wojo must not care about February.
Are you personally offended by my opinion that we should rest Howard any chance we get?
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Was just looking back through this thread. Kudos to Howard for cracking 40%, which was where I hoped he would be. Clearly 60% was never all that realistic.
To put into perspective where Markus was on the 40 vs 60 possibilities, had he missed 2 of his makes this year, he would've been under 40%. To crack 60, he would have needed to make an additional 54 of his three point attempts.
Someone may well get to 60%, but I'm pretty sure it won't be Markus Howard, and anything in the 40+% range is something to be celebrated.
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With Hauser and Hauser on the wings, the window may open for better looks next year beyond the arc. I say his % goes up not down, maybe not 60 but back to +50. Also his assists go up a little.
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I think the only one who ever said 60% was possible was his brother the coach. Just like I don't expect Cain to shoot 57% from 3 next year as he will actually be on the scouting report for the other team.
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Was just looking back through this thread. Kudos to Howard for cracking 40%, which was where I hoped he would be. Clearly 60% was never all that realistic.
To put into perspective where Markus was on the 40 vs 60 possibilities, had he missed 2 of his makes this year, he would've been under 40%. To crack 60, he would have needed to make an additional 54 of his three point attempts.
Someone may well get to 60%, but I'm pretty sure it won't be Markus Howard, and anything in the 40+% range is something to be celebrated.
Haha I told you there was a 0% chance he'd shoot under 40% from 3!
40% on high volume is great regardless, and I think we'll see his numbers go up next year with a more balanced attack.
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Haha I told you there was a 0% chance he'd shoot under 40% from 3!
40% on high volume is great regardless, and I think we'll see his numbers go up next year with a more balanced attack.
I do think he can improve that percentage next year. Considering he set a new single game record (and then equalled it) for three point makes in a game and despite the dip in percentage, he is still considered an elite shooter by most anyone.