COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[pbiflyer]

Some good news on deaths.  (at least some good projections)

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1364087549791252480?s=20

First, predictions

By March 10, we should be under 1,000 daily deaths

By St. Patrick's Day, 750

And we could keep dropping

Amazing

Why?

Because infections are falling

But why faster than expected?

Two reasons

1. Hospital capacity easing
Overburdened, packed hospital means death rates rise

Opposite also true

As crowding burden eases, doctors, nurses have more time for each patient

Based on data, proportion of infected people dying weeks later is falling

This is good

And there is a 2nd reason to be optimistic
We are now entering a point where infections in nursing homes has fallen a ton because many got vaccinated in January

And given that NH residents are the highest risk of deathblower infection rates here starting to translate into fewer deaths
Infections nationally are down about 70% since peak, deaths so far down 40%

But over time, I expect deaths to fall faster than cases because hospitals are getting less stressed

And vaccinations among high risk folks is rising -- and beginning to have an effect
We now have tools to drive down deaths

We'll still lose thousands more Americans

And variants still loom

But if we vaccinate quickly and hold tight on policy

Horrible days of sustained 2000-3000 daily deaths could be behind us

End

[MUfan12]

I know some will roll their eyes at Bill Kristol, but I thought this interview with the dean of Brown's school of public health was interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtTIUA25dhA&feature=emb_title

[Warrior2008]

I also think the message, "even if you get the vaccine things are going to take awhile to get back to normal" is one that is going to frustrate a lot of people.

This vaccine is pretty terrific.  Even those who get sick aren't getting so sick that they are going to hospitals and dying.  We should be celebrating this!  And as Frenn's said, the ability for people to return to something normal is what is going to drive them to get vaccinated.  There should be an entire push around that!

I couldn't agree more.  Someday we will look at the development of the mRNA vaccines in the same light as other once in a generation advancements, but the message about these vaccines is getting muddied by the press and poorly sold by public health officials and politicians.  The argument that not worrying about bad covid outcomes being enough for people to get vaccinated isn't going to move the vaccine fence sitters.  Particularly its not going to move younger people who look at the covid outcomes and see that they would very likely not be hospitalized if they contracted covid.  Tying the vaccine to a return to normal is being done elsewhere, particularly in Israel, and its helped with vaccine acceptance.

Now I'm not advocating for ripping the band aid off if you're vaccinated, but people telling people who are fully vaccinated that they shouldn't go out to dinner or to a movie is counterproductive.

[MU82]

I think we all realize it by now, but just in case anybody is still confused ...

[tower912]

So, 30% more in a year than the flu takes out in a decade.     

[MUBurrow]

So, 30% more in a year than the flu takes out in a decade.   

Without considering covid, I would have honestly thought the flu deaths would be higher. 

[Galway Eagle]

I expected flu deaths to be way down in 2020 considering it seemed more people got vaccinated, more people practicing safe hygiene, wearing masks, social distancing etc.

[pacearrow02]

I think we all realize it by now, but just in case anybody is still confused ...

Wonder what the annual Covid deaths will be once the vaccines have been fully rolled out.  Obviously you’re comparing apples to oranges with numbers for a virus that has had an effective vaccine for decades compared to a brand new unvaccinated virus.

Once that happens will be interesting to see if annual influenza deaths top annual Covid deaths or vice versa.

[forgetful]

Wonder what the annual Covid deaths will be once the vaccines have been fully rolled out.  Obviously you’re comparing apples to oranges with numbers for a virus that has had an effective vaccine for decades compared to a brand new unvaccinated virus.

Once that happens will be interesting to see if annual influenza deaths top annual Covid deaths or vice versa.

If you counted flu deaths in the same way they count COVID deaths, there would also be far fewer flu deaths recorded each year. The CDC estimates, that are in this figure, are 6x higher than the actual reported and verified flu and pneumonia deaths combined. Remove the pneumonia deaths that are not flu related and the numbers shown there are likely 10x higher than would be reported if you used the same criteria for deaths as is being used for COVID.

So apples to oranges, yes. But in the completely opposite way you are suggesting.

[MU82]

Wonder what the annual Covid deaths will be once the vaccines have been fully rolled out.  Obviously you’re comparing apples to oranges with numbers for a virus that has had an effective vaccine for decades compared to a brand new unvaccinated virus.

Once that happens will be interesting to see if annual influenza deaths top annual Covid deaths or vice versa.

Well, it mostly was das fuhrer and his cultists who kept comparing COVID-19 to the flu (not to mention Herr Rushbo, who called it "the common cold"), so you might want to have your apples-to-oranges chat with them.

It's a shame that anybody dies from the flu, but the death rate from the flu is 5x lower than it is for COVID-19.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201218/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-damaging-than-flu-data-shows#1

Also, although millions of Americans get the flu every year, it's difficult to know how many because most don't even go see a doctor.

But nice try.

[GooooMarquette]

Obviously you’re comparing apples to oranges with numbers for a virus that has had an effective vaccine for decades compared to a brand new unvaccinated virus.

The main reason people are comparing COVID to the flu is because Big Orange told us this was 'just the flu.'

So you're right - it is apples to oranges. If only our fearless leader had been honest about that from the beginning....

[pacearrow02]

Well, it mostly was das fuhrer and his cultists who kept comparing COVID-19 to the flu (not to mention Herr Rushbo, who called it "the common cold"), so you might want to have your apples-to-oranges chat with them.

It's a shame that anybody dies from the flu, but the death rate from the flu is 5x lower than it is for COVID-19.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201218/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-damaging-than-flu-data-shows#1

Also, although millions of Americans get the flu every year, it's difficult to know how many because most don't even go see a doctor.

But nice try.

You are missing my point hombre.  Influenza has an effective vaccine, Covid did not until very recently.  Once they both have effective vaccines to mitigate serious illness and or death it’ll be interesting to see which virus will pose a bigger threat moving forward. 

I haven’t looked cause I don’t care that much but I’m guessing mortality rate for influenza prior to the vaccine being developed was probably quite horrific.

[pacearrow02]

I wasn’t arguing Covid poses less of a threat to public health then the flu.  It’s obviously much deadlier but only because there was no vaccine for it. 

I’m guessing starting in 2021 and moving forward annual influenza linked deaths will be far greater then annual Covid deaths, that’s all.  Not sure why you guys had to make it political but when you only got one trick in the bag I guess I understand why. 

[Hards Alumni]

I wasn’t arguing Covid poses less of a threat to public health then the flu.  It’s obviously much deadlier but only because there was no vaccine for it. 

I’m guessing starting in 2021 and moving forward annual influenza linked deaths will be far greater then annual Covid deaths, that’s all.  Not sure why you guys had to make it political but when you only got one trick in the bag I guess I understand why.

What I'm hopeful comes out of this is better mRNA vaccine technology.  We need it.

[Galway Eagle]

I wasn’t arguing Covid poses less of a threat to public health then the flu.  It’s obviously much deadlier but only because there was no vaccine for it. 

I’m guessing starting in 2021 and moving forward annual influenza linked deaths will be far greater then annual Covid deaths, that’s all.  Not sure why you guys had to make it political but when you only got one trick in the bag I guess I understand why.

When you're comparing a vaccine with >90% effectiveness that's going to be almost mandatory vs a flu vaccine that's about 60% effective and 40% of the population get that's a poor combination. Like saying "there's less polio deaths now than the flu"

[pacearrow02]

When you're comparing a vaccine with >90% effectiveness that's going to be almost mandatory vs a flu vaccine that's about 60% effective and 40% of the population get that's a poor combination. Like saying "there's less polio deaths now than the flu"

Agree 100% it’ll remain an apples to oranges comparison and for that same reason you explained is why comparing 2020 Covid deaths to recent prior year influenza deaths isn’t exactly fair either.

[mu_hilltopper]

I expected flu deaths to be way down in 2020 considering it seemed more people got vaccinated, more people practicing safe hygiene, wearing masks, social distancing etc.

I think one more factor is the massive reduction in travel, especially international.   Can't get this year's flu if no one brings the strain over from Asia.

[wadesworld]

Agree 100% it’ll remain an apples to oranges comparison and for that same reason you explained is why comparing 2020 Covid deaths to recent prior year influenza deaths isn’t exactly fair either.

So what you've been saying is...this isn't "just the flu."

[Galway Eagle]

Agree 100% it’ll remain an apples to oranges comparison and for that same reason you explained is why comparing 2020 Covid deaths to recent prior year influenza deaths isn’t exactly fair either.

I'm not sure anybody in their right mind would make a flu comparison. Seems like you agree it's a very idiotic comparison and something that shouldn't ever be done.

[pacearrow02]

I'm not sure anybody in their right mind would make a flu comparison. Seems like you agree it's a very idiotic comparison and something that shouldn't ever be done.

Is it but boy there were a lot of folks on both sides of the political aisle making that comparison early on in 2020.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrentScher/status/1364938451158790145

[GooooMarquette]

What I'm hopeful comes out of this is better mRNA vaccine technology.  We need it.

Agree completely.

mRNA technology has been moving forward for quite a while, but the growth has been slow and steady because it was lacking the urgency of a crisis. The pandemic gave it that urgency (and the attendant funding) that pushed it forward dramatically. And with variants continuing to evolve, these advances will continue as we look for a quickly-developed booster.

These advances should help us dramatically in the fight against new illnesses.

[GooooMarquette]

Is it but boy there were a lot of folks on both sides of the political aisle making that comparison early on in 2020.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrentScher/status/1364938451158790145

That was a common misconception early, before we knew much about Covid. But Big Orange was still making the claim in October, long after the experts had disproven the earlier statements and changed their advice accordingly.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-compares-covid-flu-experts-say-he-s-flat-wrong-n1242258

Scientists (and intelligent people) change their beliefs and comments as the information evolves. Fools double-down.

[jesmu84]

Is it but boy there were a lot of folks on both sides of the political aisle making that comparison early on in 2020.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrentScher/status/1364938451158790145

"Both sides"

Whataboutism

Mr. Disingenuous strikes again!

[tower912]

One side learned.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

One side learned.

Exactly.  A lot of people thought the earth was flat, including some very intelligent people, before 1492.  Now only the crazies think it is.

I don't think this makes the point Pace thinks it makes.