MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: PorkysButthole on March 24, 2024, 06:22:53 PM

Title: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: PorkysButthole on March 24, 2024, 06:22:53 PM
PORKY HATES TO KEEP HARPING ON THIS BUT...........

VS WKY
8-15
50%

VS COL
4-8
50%

THIS IS A PROBLEM!   WHAT ARE THEY DOING ABOUT IT???????????    Yes Jop was ice when it counted today.  Fair enough, but they have to get this sorted moving forward.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Uncle Rico on March 24, 2024, 06:23:18 PM
PORKY HATES TO KEEP HARPING ON THIS BUT...........

VS WKY
8-15
50%

VS COL
4-8
50%

THIS IS A PROBLEM!   WHAT ARE THEY DOING ABOUT IT???????????

Losing games
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on March 24, 2024, 06:24:01 PM
1. It's not much of a problem.

2. Probably what they usually do.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: NickelDimer on March 24, 2024, 06:24:17 PM
There were only two free throws in that game that mattered, and we made them when they mattered
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: tower912 on March 24, 2024, 06:29:57 PM


THIS IS A PROBLEM!   WHAT ARE THEY DOING ABOUT IT???????????
Cancelling their trip to the sweet 16.  Don't deserve it.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Jay Bee on March 24, 2024, 06:31:52 PM
#FTsNoMatta
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Judge Smails on March 24, 2024, 06:36:32 PM
Seems like they tend to make them at crunch time.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 24, 2024, 06:42:35 PM
 https://x.com/painttouches/status/1771988223788564976?s=46&t=EPgIwcjzegj_0y0aa83fHA (https://x.com/painttouches/status/1771988223788564976?s=46&t=EPgIwcjzegj_0y0aa83fHA)

I got this
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Viper on March 24, 2024, 07:01:07 PM
There were only two free throws in that game that mattered, and we made them when they mattered
make em early the throws late don’t matter
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on March 24, 2024, 07:06:47 PM
make em early the throws late don’t matter

Don't miss a shot and they most certainly don't matter. Never turn the ball over and they won't matter either.

Why are you under the impression that free throws should be guaranty?

Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Big Papi on March 24, 2024, 07:09:20 PM
Could be an issue.

Not sure what they can do about it the next 4 days to improve.

If you have the answer to that, I think you could make a lot of money.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Viper on March 24, 2024, 07:23:21 PM
Don't miss a shot and they most certainly don't matter. Never turn the ball over and they won't matter either.

Why are you under the impression that free throws should be guaranty?
everything you state I agree. But, and aside from a wide open uncontested lay up/dunk, free throws are…uncontested. Easy peezy. 80% should be automatic.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 24, 2024, 11:00:10 PM
everything you state I agree. But, and aside from a wide open uncontested lay up/dunk, free throws are…uncontested. Easy peezy. 80% should be automatic.

Exactly three teams hit 80% or better this season:

Villanova
Indiana State
Princeton

None of them made the NCAA tournament.

Only 8 NBA teams shoot better than 80% from the FT line.

Your expectations are whack.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: PointWarrior on March 24, 2024, 11:12:41 PM
Buzz's team missed 16 free throws in a game that went to OT, but free throws don't matter....
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Tyler COLEk on March 24, 2024, 11:28:35 PM
C'mon guys, it's not that hard to understand statistically. Free throw percentage is just not a primary influence on a basketball team's performance. Don't you have the humility to defer to high level coaches across the game, to understand that they aren't prioritizing it for a reason? Shaka isn't going to waste a precious two hours of practice time in March on free throw shooting. There are 1,000 better uses of that time.

You have these opinions because it agitates you emotionally to see missed free throws. You feel like it should be easy. You're not right about that. You're not the ones out there. And you're certainly not the ones coaching. Thank God for that.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: PointWarrior on March 24, 2024, 11:52:38 PM
C'mon guys, it's not that hard to understand statistically. Free throw percentage is just not a primary influence on a basketball team's performance. Don't you have the humility to defer to high level coaches across the game, to understand that they aren't prioritizing it for a reason? Shaka isn't going to waste a precious two hours of practice time in March on free throw shooting. There are 1,000 better uses of that time.

You have these opinions because it agitates you emotionally to see missed free throws. You feel like it should be easy. You're not right about that. You're not the ones out there. And you're certainly not the ones coaching. Thank God for that.

But if Buzz's team makes 1 of their 16 free throws they missed in regulation, they advance to the Sweet 16.   Analytics aside, seems like FT's matta...


Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Tyler COLEk on March 25, 2024, 12:01:35 AM
But if Buzz's team makes 1 of their 16 free throws they missed in regulation, they advance to the Sweet 16.   Analytics aside, seems like FT's matta...

Or if they had one additional field goal made. Or if they got one more defensive stop. Or if they got one more defensive rebound. Or if they forced one more turnover. Or if they turned it over one fewer time. Or if they got one more block. Or if they didn't step on the line for those three point attempts. Or if they had attacked Shead a earlier in regulation and fouled him out then. Or if Buzz drew up a few better plays. Or if they had focused a little more on Sharp's offensive game in preparation yesterday. Etc.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Osiris on March 25, 2024, 09:13:33 AM
Ask Texas A&M if free throws matter.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Uncle Rico on March 25, 2024, 09:17:37 AM
Free throws do matter.  They also don’t matter. 
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Stretchdeltsig on March 25, 2024, 09:21:50 AM
Free throws matter. Perhaps Shaka should offer an incentive to the best free throw shooter of each game such as an extra large shake or a chocolate donut.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Uncle Rico on March 25, 2024, 09:23:40 AM
Free throws matter. Perhaps Shaka should offer an incentive to the best free throw shooter of each game such as an extra large shake or a chocolate donut.

That’s a violation and he’d get fired
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 25, 2024, 09:25:42 AM
Or if they had one additional field goal made. Or if they got one more defensive stop. Or if they got one more defensive rebound. Or if they forced one more turnover. Or if they turned it over one fewer time. Or if they got one more block. Or if they didn't step on the line for those three point attempts. Or if they had attacked Shead a earlier in regulation and fouled him out then. Or if Buzz drew up a few better plays. Or if they had focused a little more on Sharp's offensive game in preparation yesterday. Etc.

This guy gets it.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: frozena pizza on March 25, 2024, 09:27:49 AM
We have two clear weaknesses - rebounding and free throws.  We ranked last in the Big East in FT% and it has not been good so far in the tournament.  A lot of it has to do with who ends up getting to the line and we did hit them pretty well in the BE tournament.  Doesn't mean we can't win more games or hit more of them but to say it has nothing to do with success at this point in the season just doesn't make sense. 
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: tower912 on March 25, 2024, 09:38:32 AM
MU is 245th in ft%.  Houston is 296th.   Separated by less than a percent.  Somehow in the sweet 16.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 25, 2024, 09:51:45 AM
Sigh I see we have to do the math again.

Marquette has shot 70.7% from the FT line.  Thats good for 245th in the country.

If they increased their FT% by 5% to 75.7% they would be top 45 in the country for FT%. Hopefully we can agree that top 45 out of 362 is aacceptable.

That increase of 5% would mean we would have made between 27 and 28 (27.621 to be exact) more FTs over the course of the season.

We've played 36 games, so divide that by 36 and you get .767 extra points a game.

You're complaining about leaving less than a point a game on the table.

In the micro, FTs matter. Joplins FTs were huge in that moment.  But over the course of a game, they matter very little compared to other factors. Over the course of a season,  they mean nothing.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on March 25, 2024, 09:53:46 AM
Hate to break it to you, but you're going to have to do the math again. Probably next week.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Scoop Snoop on March 25, 2024, 09:54:17 AM
MU is 245th in ft%.  Houston is 296th.   Separated by less than a percent.  Somehow in the sweet 16.

That's awful. Both teams should forfeit their next game.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: tower912 on March 25, 2024, 09:55:22 AM
Hate to break it to you, but you're going to have to do the math again. Probably next week.
Later today.  Using larger font and smaller words.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 25, 2024, 09:56:33 AM
To add, eFg% is a 90 correlate to MU's offensive efficiency. FTR is a 6. 
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Pakuni on March 25, 2024, 10:01:10 AM
Free throws matta, but not that much.

https://thecommutesports.com/2020/03/11/free-throw-importance/
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: MarquetteDano on March 25, 2024, 10:02:34 AM
Given that we don't get to the line that much (last I looked we were one of the worst in the country in getting to the line),  the FT%  means even less.

I would say the real issue is we don't even get to the line.  If we did,  the FT% would burn us more.  Let's GET to the line more and then we could complain about our percentages.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Newsdreams on March 25, 2024, 10:07:13 AM
But if Buzz's team makes 1 of their 16 free throws they missed in regulation, they advance to the Sweet 16.   Analytics aside, seems like FT's matta...
They actually scored 8 more points on Fts than Houston
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Herman Cain on March 25, 2024, 10:08:45 AM
PORKY HATES TO KEEP HARPING ON THIS BUT...........

VS WKY
8-15
50%

VS COL
4-8
50%

THIS IS A PROBLEM!   WHAT ARE THEY DOING ABOUT IT???????????    Yes Jop was ice when it counted today.  Fair enough, but they have to get this sorted moving forward.
P’sB:
The off season is the time skills improvement takes place.

During the course of season not much can be done ,other then relax and stick as closely as possible to a consistent shooting form.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Scoop Snoop on March 25, 2024, 10:10:09 AM
Hate to break it to you, but you're going to have to do the math again. Probably next week.

You lie! You love to break it to him.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: WhiteTrash on March 25, 2024, 10:21:01 AM
They actually scored 8 more points on Fts than Houston
The lesson is - foul the heck out of A&M.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: tower912 on March 25, 2024, 10:22:10 AM
Houston did.  4 players fouled out.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: WhiteTrash on March 25, 2024, 10:58:08 AM
Houston did.  4 players fouled out.
Houston won. Master Class in how to play A&M.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: MU82 on March 25, 2024, 11:38:15 AM
C'mon guys, it's not that hard to understand statistically. Free throw percentage is just not a primary influence on a basketball team's performance. Don't you have the humility to defer to high level coaches across the game, to understand that they aren't prioritizing it for a reason? Shaka isn't going to waste a precious two hours of practice time in March on free throw shooting. There are 1,000 better uses of that time.

You have these opinions because it agitates you emotionally to see missed free throws. You feel like it should be easy. You're not right about that. You're not the ones out there. And you're certainly not the ones coaching. Thank God for that.

This describes my buddies perfectly. I’m worn out explaining it to them. I need to show them this thread.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Scoop Snoop on March 25, 2024, 12:18:08 PM
This describes my buddies perfectly. I’m worn out explaining it to them. I need to show them this thread.

The last paragraph of KOLEk's post is spot on. The only thing I will add is that the contrast between the fast pace of shooting and running up and down the court vs. the screeching halt and slow shooting of FT's psychologically makes FT's seem to be much more important than they are when the game is viewed as a whole. If the game hinges on last minute FT's, some fans can understand only what is right in front of them  ::), and of course all they focus even more on the late FT's after the game is over.

Edit: KOLEk's last line-"Thank God for that." is perfect.  ;D
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on March 25, 2024, 12:20:15 PM
I also think a lot of fans have Viper's mind-set. That because it is unguarded, an 80% rate is what should be expected. But hitting FTs is way harder than people think.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: CTWarrior on March 25, 2024, 12:42:06 PM
Sigh I see we have to do the math again.

Marquette has shot 70.7% from the FT line.  Thats good for 245th in the country.

If they increased their FT% by 5% to 75.7% they would be top 45 in the country for FT%. Hopefully we can agree that top 45 out of 362 is aacceptable.

That increase of 5% would mean we would have made between 27 and 28 (27.621 to be exact) more FTs over the course of the season.

We've played 36 games, so divide that by 36 and you get .767 extra points a game.

You're complaining about leaving less than a point a game on the table.

In the micro, FTs matter. Joplins FTs were huge in that moment.  But over the course of a game, they matter very little compared to other factors. Over the course of a season,  they mean nothing.
I know in my brain that the above is true, but missed FTs drive me crazy more than most things in a basketball game.  And knowing you are right doesn't change that.  I had little faith in Jop making the first of two, let alone both.  Those FTs meant a whole hell of a lot, and he buried them and was clutch as could be.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Viper on March 25, 2024, 01:13:23 PM
Buzz's team missed 16 free throws in a game that went to OT, but free throws don't matter....
smack that upside TAMU’s metrics.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on March 25, 2024, 01:15:04 PM
smack that upside TAMU’s metrics.

It's not "metrics"... it's basic math.  Not really hard to understand either.

Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Viper on March 25, 2024, 01:15:44 PM
But if Buzz's team makes 1 of their 16 free throws they missed in regulation, they advance to the Sweet 16.   Analytics aside, seems like FT's matta...
on point PointWarrior…but the crew here will argue that we are whacked. So…A&M needed one more 2-ball rather than a FREE throw.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on March 25, 2024, 01:17:15 PM
on point PointWarrior…but the crew here will argue that we are whacked. So…A&M needed one more 2-ball rather than a FREE throw.

LOL...you realize that free throws aren't free points right?

Why you continue to show your ignorance by not understanding this is astounding to me.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: tower912 on March 25, 2024, 01:25:53 PM
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/free-throw-pct

A complete list of team free throw shooting %.   MU is 245th.   Houston 296.


https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-10-22/best-free-throw-shooters-mens-college-basketball-history

Article from 2020 saying the cumulative free throw percentage is 70.8.

MU misses one free throw out of 100 more than average.   


This one matters more.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/effective-field-goal-pct
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Its DJOver on March 25, 2024, 01:33:44 PM
Man it sure is good to see that no matter what level of success the program has, we can have the same arguments year in and year out.  I can't wait for the "who is a Blue Blood" argument.  I expect it to start about 20 minutes after the final buzzer in Phoenix.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Jay Bee on March 25, 2024, 01:38:49 PM
The lesson is - foul the heck out of A&M.

No, it’s not. A&M shot 64.4% from the line that game, and 70.7% for the year (same as us). That is ELITE offense.

We score under 1.13 ppp. More than happy to live at the line.

Remember, “bad” FT% is ELITE offense.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: FairWeatherEagle on March 25, 2024, 01:39:47 PM
In the micro, FTs matter.

This is the thing. So when Oso goes to the line at the end of a game, not worried so much. He seems to be clutch at the line despite his 60+% season. (Now that I said that, l bet someone zaps me with a stat that shows he's not). In any case, FREE THROWS MATTER. I think the micro is what we're talking about. I feel like MU has no hack-a-shacks on our team. But it's certainly possible a missed FT could cost or make MU a national 🏆.  Wouldn't that be a moment!

I was a Michigan fan when Remuel Robinson hit clutch FTs in 89 to win it. Seton Hall had a player on a mission ...but UM pulled it out
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: WhiteTrash on March 25, 2024, 01:40:26 PM
I think what gets to people on FTs is that we can all see great defenses causing low FG% but the FT% has nothing to due with the opponent. I do agree unless you are in the fringe upper or lower FT%, they are not as impactful as they feel. Obviously PFs can greatly impact the outcome but not the resulting FTs so much.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Jay Bee on March 25, 2024, 01:41:45 PM
This is the thing. So when Oso goes to the line at the end of a game, not worried so much. He seems to be clutch at the line despite his 60+% season. (Now that I said that, l bet someone zaps me with a stat that shows he's not). In any case, FREE THROWS MATTER. I think the micro is what we're talking about. I feel like MU has no hack-a-shacks on our team. But it's certainly possible a missed FT could cost or make MU a national 🏆.  Wouldn't that be a moment!

I was a Michigan fan when Remuel Robinson hit clutch FTs in 89 to win it. Seton Hall had a player on a mission ...but UM pulled it out

No. What done of us are taking about is that team ft% isn’t relevant to winning bball games. Bad Ft teams are still elite offensively at the line.

#FTsNoMatta
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: frozena pizza on March 25, 2024, 01:42:53 PM
I think it depends on how you look at this.  It's fair to say that an incremental improvement in any single fundamental aspect of the game is unlikely to change the result of any particular game or materially change a team's record over the course of the season.  It's also true that a missed layup in the opening minute is just as big of a missed opportunity as missing the front of a 1-1 when the score is tied in the final minute.  But you have to acknowledge that regardless of how you got to that point, in close games a losing team will always try to foul to send the other team to the line to stop the clock and hope they miss free throws in order to generate more possessions.  Having excellent FT shooters who can convert in these pressure situations to close out a game (as Joplin thankfully did) is truly valuable at this time of the year and takes on greater importance (yes, ask Texas A&M and Baylor).  Looking at aggregated data over a longer time period without placing a premium on this situational aspect ignores this.  In addition, FT% should actually be given greater value as a statistic because it is one of the rare things in basketball that can be viewed as largely independent of other factors.  For example, turnovers, field goal %, and rebounding are often highly dependent on the opponent, lucky bounces, personnel, missed calls, and other circumstantial factors that diminish their value.  Finally, aside from whether this is actually a problem for Marquette or any other team, cherry picking certain teams that are not good at FTs but still win a lot of games is like pointing out a successful person with a history of alcohol abuse and saying it proves that alcoholism has no bearing on your career prospects.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Jay Bee on March 25, 2024, 01:43:19 PM
I think what gets to people on FTs is that we can all see great defenses causing low FG% but the FT% has nothing to due with the opponent.

Not true. You think defenses play all guys the same?
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: WhiteTrash on March 25, 2024, 01:49:01 PM
Not true. You think defenses play all guys the same?
I think we are not talking about the same thing. I was making the obvious point that there is no such thing as FT defense.

If you are referring to teams fouling poor FT shooters more often, then I agree because I guess FTs do matter at some level.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Jockey on March 25, 2024, 01:50:16 PM
To add, eFg% is a 90 correlate to MU's offensive efficiency. FTR is a 6.

There’s a disconnect on this issue. FT no Matta is more of a season stat and the proof is plentiful.

People that mock this say that the ‘FT no matta” concept is not nearly as relatable when it comes to individual games (at least I think that is their thinking).  In fact, I would venture that FT % is one of the most important factors when it comes to results of games decided by 5 points is less.

FTs made or missed in the last 2 minutes decide most close games. 
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: WhiteTrash on March 25, 2024, 01:54:22 PM
Fellow Warrior fans, can we all agree that 'Wins No Matta' was completely debunked?
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on March 25, 2024, 02:01:51 PM
There’s a disconnect on this issue. FT no Matta is more of a season stat and the proof is plentiful.

People that mock this say that the ‘FT no matta” concept is not nearly as relatable when it comes to individual games (at least I think that is their thinking).  In fact, I would venture that FT % is one of the most important factors when it comes to results of games decided by 5 points is less.

FTs made or missed in the last 2 minutes decide most close games. 


No. They don't. Games are decided by what occurs over the course of 40 minutes. People place outsized  importance on the last two minutes of close games because it's the last thing to occur during the game...during "crunch time"... so it is the last thing we remember.

But there are many times during games where an easy shot is missed...a bad turnover occurs...a defensive rebound is mishandled, etc. Those are just as important, if not more, to what "decides" a game than free throws in the last two minutes.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: tower912 on March 25, 2024, 02:07:18 PM
30 free throw attempts.   The difference between lousy and average is whether a team makes 20 or 21.    The 4 exceptional teams make 24.
24 free throw attempts.   The difference between lousy and very good is whether a team hits 16-18.

Unless a team is having an extremely bad day, free throws = elite scoring percentage per possession.   TAMU put up the numbers earlier.   

 
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on March 25, 2024, 02:08:02 PM
Put another way...

We didn't win the game yesterday because of David Joplin shooting free throws at the end.

We won the game yesterday because of how well we shot in the first half. If we don't shoot like that, and all else remains equal, Joplin's FTs would have been meaningless points in a losing effort. 
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Skatastrophy on March 25, 2024, 02:13:13 PM
30 free throw attempts.   The difference between lousy and average is whether a team makes 20 or 21.    The 4 exceptional teams make 24.
24 free throw attempts.   The difference between lousy and very good is whether a team hits 16-18.

Unless a team is having an extremely bad day, free throws = elite scoring percentage per possession.   TAMU put up the numbers earlier.   


It's how Jimmy always had great offensive efficiency in college and in the pros. He seeks contact, gets his whistle, and gets the ball up. I'm surprised how many college players avoid contact, or if they get contact they don't do their best to get the ball above the rim no matter how bad their shot will be. The way the college game is called I think it would be an effective strat
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: frozena pizza on March 25, 2024, 02:27:20 PM
30 free throw attempts.   The difference between lousy and average is whether a team makes 20 or 21.    The 4 exceptional teams make 24.
24 free throw attempts.   The difference between lousy and very good is whether a team hits 16-18.

Unless a team is having an extremely bad day, free throws = elite scoring percentage per possession.   TAMU put up the numbers earlier.   

Yes but the conclusion here is that there is a low standard deviation on FT% across college basketball teams and not that the rate of making them doesn't matter. This is true in many statistics in sports played at the highest levels.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: FairWeatherEagle on March 25, 2024, 02:41:10 PM
I think it depends on how you look at this.  It's fair to say that an incremental improvement in any single fundamental aspect of the game is unlikely to change the result of any particular game or materially change a team's record over the course of the season.  It's also true that a missed layup in the opening minute is just as big of a missed opportunity as missing the front of a 1-1 when the score is tied in the final minute.  But you have to acknowledge that regardless of how you got to that point, in close games a losing team will always try to foul to send the other team to the line to stop the clock and hope they miss free throws in order to generate more possessions.  Having excellent FT shooters who can convert in these pressure situations to close out a game (as Joplin thankfully did) is truly valuable at this time of the year and takes on greater importance (yes, ask Texas A&M and Baylor).  Looking at aggregated data over a longer time period without placing a premium on this situational aspect ignores this.  In addition, FT% should actually be given greater value as a statistic because it is one of the rare things in basketball that can be viewed as largely independent of other factors.  For example, turnovers, field goal %, and rebounding are often highly dependent on the opponent, lucky bounces, personnel, missed calls, and other circumstantial factors that diminish their value.  Finally, aside from whether this is actually a problem for Marquette or any other team, cherry picking certain teams that are not good at FTs but still win a lot of games is like pointing out a successful person with a history of alcohol abuse and saying it proves that alcoholism has no bearing on your career prospects.
You made some good points.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Jockey on March 25, 2024, 02:41:19 PM

No. They don't. Games are decided by what occurs over the course of 40 minutes. People place outsized  importance on the last two minutes of close games because it's the last thing to occur during the game...during "crunch time"... so it is the last thing we remember.

But there are many times during games where an easy shot is missed...a bad turnover occurs...a defensive rebound is mishandled, etc. Those are just as important, if not more, to what "decides" a game than free throws in the last two minutes.

There’s a reason that in any close NFL games, they always give the stat for how many times a QB has led a winning drive in the last 2 minutes of a game.

That doesn’t mean they are minimizing every thing that happened earlier and those effects, but talent is spread enough so there are so many close games. The plays made or missed in the last 2 minutes have an outsized effect.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: tower912 on March 25, 2024, 02:51:37 PM
How many MU losses this season were due at least partially to missed free throws, in your (universal your, not just Jockey) opinion?
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on March 25, 2024, 02:55:23 PM
There’s a reason that in any close NFL games, they always give the stat for how many times a QB has led a winning drive in the last 2 minutes of a game.

Ignoring the fact that basketball is not football, it's largely because people like you fall for the nonsense.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Jay Bee on March 25, 2024, 02:58:08 PM
In fact, I would venture that FT % is one of the most important factors when it comes to results of games decided by 5 points is less.

Lol. No. You can say it, but nah
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: frozena pizza on March 25, 2024, 03:06:48 PM
How many MU losses this season were due at least partially to missed free throws, in your (universal your, not just Jockey) opinion?

9
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 25, 2024, 03:08:58 PM
There’s a reason that in any close NFL games, they always give the stat for how many times a QB has led a winning drive in the last 2 minutes of a game.

That doesn’t mean they are minimizing every thing that happened earlier and those effects, but talent is spread enough so there are so many close games. The plays made or missed in the last 2 minutes have an outsized effect.

Ignoring the fact that basketball is not football, it's largely because people like you fall for the nonsense.

That stat tells you something about the QB. Honestly, I would think a stat that BB Player X shoots 94% free throws in the final minute of close games would tell you something meaningful about what to expect if Player X goes to the line late in a close game. But I don't think it would tell you anything meaningful about whether or not FTs matta generally.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: jfp61 on March 25, 2024, 03:10:17 PM
Grandpa type of conversation going on.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: tower912 on March 25, 2024, 03:11:50 PM
LOL.   Maybe Seton Hall.  One of two one possession losses. In the other, MU shot 10-11 against Purdue.  The Boilermakers 53%.  The other 7 losses were large enough that free throws made no difference.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Jay Bee on March 25, 2024, 03:14:48 PM
Grandpa type of conversation going on.

So, age appropriate, aina? Remember, this is Scoop
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on March 25, 2024, 03:15:10 PM
That stat tells you something about the QB. Honestly, I would think a stat that BB Player X shoots 94% free throws in the final minute of close games would tell you something meaningful about what to expect if Player X goes to the line late in a close game. But I don't think it would tell you anything meaningful about whether or not FTs matta generally.

That is a fair point. There are certain people who you WANT on the foul line no doubt. Just like there are certain quarterbacks you would feel comfortable quarterbacking your team.

But that doesn't mean that free throws in the last two minutes, or two minutes drives, are what decides the game.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: frozena pizza on March 25, 2024, 03:19:37 PM
Well, I was reading it literally since in each of our 9 losses we had missed free throws.  By definition, each loss was "due at least partially to missed free throws" since making them would have gotten us closer to winning.  Of course, losing by 28 to UConn with 2 misses at the line doesn't really make me think that is a major issue.  I would agree with the statement that missing free throws was not the sole reason for any loss this year, or in any game ever, for that matter.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: NickelDimer on March 25, 2024, 03:24:25 PM
This thread being way hotter than the one discussing the sweet 16 opponent is…something
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Uncle Rico on March 25, 2024, 03:26:12 PM
This thread being way hotter than the one discussing the sweet 16 opponent is…something

Is it?
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 25, 2024, 03:27:51 PM
This thread being way hotter than the one discussing the sweet 16 opponent is…something


(https://quaggapedia.afrikaburn.com/images/4/46/First-time-james-franco-hanging-meme.jpg)
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: ATL MU Warrior on March 25, 2024, 03:28:15 PM
This thread being way hotter than the one discussing the sweet 16 opponent is…something
I think the Kolek Legacy thread devolving into another Markus Howard bashing thread better encapsulates the 'Scoop experience.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: FairWeatherEagle on March 25, 2024, 03:30:05 PM
Grandpa type of conversation going on.

Totally right!!  FT NoMAtta! YES They do!! Its true. As I am a grandpa wanna-be,  I feel the curmudgeon coming out. Why do we start holding on so tight to our opinions? Certainly there is truth out there. But even True Truth...does it need to be defended so vigorously.  You say, "scoop is just a fun outlet" ... let us have our fun and argue and be on our way.  BUT I can tell it goes pretty deep for some of these guys.

So I'm going to try and stay a FairweatherEagle although my nature fights against it.   When MU finally loses (or wears the crown :) ), I'm going to fly away from Scoop....maybe I'll be back next year to cheer on whoever walks onto the Fiserv court...to do what UCONN could not....REPEAT AS NATIONAL CHAMPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Skatastrophy on March 25, 2024, 03:34:12 PM
I think the Kolek Legacy thread devolving into another Markus Howard bashing thread better encapsulates the 'Scoop experience.

Howard embodied Shaka's "eff it" approach to shooting
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: NickelDimer on March 25, 2024, 03:35:54 PM
Is it?
Touché
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: MU82 on March 25, 2024, 03:54:06 PM
How many MU losses this season were due at least partially to missed free throws, in your (universal your, not just Jockey) opinion?

Absolutely zero.

One could have argued that the near-collapse against St. John's would have made it 1 had we lost, but we didn't.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: muwarrior69 on March 25, 2024, 04:55:44 PM
Keeping our opponent from getting offensive rebounds, that is getting second or third chances at scoring is more of concern. Maybe I should have started a thread REBOUNDING ISSUES.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: MU82 on March 25, 2024, 04:57:57 PM
I think the Kolek Legacy thread devolving into another Markus Howard bashing thread better encapsulates the 'Scoop experience.

And the quickness in which that happened was truly Scoompressive.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 25, 2024, 05:24:12 PM
Texas A&M missed 16 free throws and 15 threes. Two more made threes = six more made free throws. That would have raised TAMU up to 78% FT% and 3FGM to   43%. Which was more likely to occur?
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Newsdreams on March 25, 2024, 05:56:29 PM
Colorado scored a point more than MU in FTs 5-4 and shot 21% better from the line
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Judge Smails on March 25, 2024, 07:55:01 PM
I talked to a guy today that is a certified knower of ball and he said that free throws do matter.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Scoop Snoop on March 25, 2024, 07:55:52 PM
Keeping our opponent from getting offensive rebounds, that is getting second or third chances at scoring is more of concern. Maybe I should have started a thread REBOUNDING ISSUES.

Not unless you want to get beat up as badly as Porky did.   :D
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: WhiteTrash on March 25, 2024, 08:05:41 PM
Maybe its me, but if you read most of the post in this thread without context, its hard to determine if they are saying FT matta or FT no matta.

Context matta or no matta?
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Pakuni on March 25, 2024, 08:51:41 PM
Colorado scored a point more than MU in FTs 5-4 and shot 21% better from the line

If you're a bettor, this definitely mastered Sunday.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: DoctorV on March 25, 2024, 09:29:40 PM
I’d much rather talk about EGBs than free throws.

I’d argue that the most important part of free throws is that it’s a personal EGB- guys seem to get down on themselves and it seems to affect their play when they are missing key freebies.

I saw a few people mention that they were extremely confident when Jop went to the line- how could you not be the way he played that game?
Kid was playing like he was shot out of a cannon
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Newsdreams on March 25, 2024, 09:47:06 PM
If you're a bettor, this definitely mastered Sunday.
That is a different issue you sinner.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Viper on March 26, 2024, 09:28:53 AM
I talked to a guy today that is a certified knower of ball and he said that free throws do matter.
you tight with Gard, brah?
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: TSmith34, Inc. on March 26, 2024, 09:29:43 AM
Keeping our opponent from getting offensive rebounds, that is getting second or third chances at scoring is more of concern. Maybe I should have started a thread REBOUNDING ISSUES.
I'm way more concerned with Blk%. I'd start a thread but Muggsy's probably already beaten me to it.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Scoop Snoop on March 26, 2024, 09:34:33 AM
I'm way more concerned with Blk%. I'd start a thread but Muggsy's probably already beaten me to it.

He probably has a salvo of posts ready to launch with predictions for next season's team through January, and you're asking whether or not he's got one ready for Blk%? Get another cup of coffee.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: oldwarrior81 on March 26, 2024, 09:44:46 AM
Those that remember when the FT No Matta began, I believe it was FT% related to team success.

Of course there are a few games a year that may have been won if a team shot 80% from the line.  But in the long run there probably are more games that could have been won if the Reb% was higher.  Or eFG%, or points allowed per 100.

No doubt making more FT's, and even attempting more FT's will produce more points, but there are many more statistics that equate directly to more wins.

Top FT% team in the country each of the last two years?  Villanova, both years. 
I wonder if they polish that trophy every day.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: YaBlueIt on March 26, 2024, 09:47:15 AM
I’ll just leave this here.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 26, 2024, 09:50:02 AM
Doesn’t that chart point to attempts—it’s no secret that we don’t get to the line as much as other teams. 
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on March 26, 2024, 10:17:03 AM
Right. That's way more a free throw rate issue than a free throw percentage issue.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on March 26, 2024, 10:25:28 AM
Those that remember when the FT No Matta began, I believe it was FT% related to team success.

Of course there are a few games a year that may have been won if a team shot 80% from the line.  But in the long run there probably are more games that could have been won if the Reb% was higher.  Or eFG%, or points allowed per 100.

No doubt making more FT's, and even attempting more FT's will produce more points, but there are many more statistics that equate directly to more wins.

Top FT% team in the country each of the last two years?  Villanova, both years. 
I wonder if they polish that trophy every day.

This is exactly right.  It's all about FT% not correlating to team wins.  Getting to the line (free throw rate) is way more important than what you do when you are there.

I will put this another way. If a team is fouled every single time they are on offense, and shoots free throws at a godawful rate of 60% (which would be second-to-last in all of college basketball this year), they would have the most efficient offense in the country. (1.2 points per possession v. UConn's 1.198)

And yes I assumed every free throw was a 2-shot attempt because I was a Political Science major so I make the math easy.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 26, 2024, 10:31:51 AM
Those that remember when the FT No Matta began, I believe it was FT% related to team success.

Correct.  #FTNoMatta is poorly named but #teamft%hasnocorrelationwithteamsuccess was too clunky
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 26, 2024, 10:34:44 AM
I’ll just leave this here.

Marquette ranks 348/362 in FTRate (how often you get to the free throw line) hence our placement on your graph.

Please don't make me do the math again to show how insignificant being an elite FT% team would be

Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: MU82 on March 26, 2024, 10:36:45 AM
I had a discussion with an MU fan while watching a game a few years ago that went like this:

Him: “Damn, another missed free throw.”

Me: “He’s actually done pretty well. He’s 3 for 4.”

Him: “That’s not good enough! They’re FREE throws. Gotta make ‘em!”

Me: “So what’s an acceptable percentage to you?”

Him: “90% - at least.”

Me: “Just about all of the best free-throw shooters in basketball history didn’t even make 90%.”

Him: “I don’t care. We gotta make our free throws.”
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Hards Alumni on March 26, 2024, 10:45:25 AM
Marquette ranks 348/362 in FTRate (how often you get to the free throw line) hence our placement on your graph.

Please don't make me do the math again to show how insignificant being an elite FT% team would be

(https://i.imgflip.com/8kkn48.jpg)
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: lawdog77 on March 26, 2024, 10:46:19 AM
Grandpa type of conversation going on.
Is it Friday yet?
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: YaBlueIt on March 26, 2024, 11:10:22 AM
Marquette ranks 348/362 in FTRate (how often you get to the free throw line) hence our placement on your graph.

Please don't make me do the math again to show how insignificant being an elite FT% team would be



Believe it or not, I posted the graph because I agree with you. We don't rely on free throws to get points.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: 21Jumpstreet on March 26, 2024, 11:24:20 AM
It’s a midrange shot, they no matta
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: BCHoopster on March 26, 2024, 11:39:06 AM
In that Colorado game, Tre Norman and Ben Gold went 0-4, the worse part of those shots were not even close to going in.  As MU should have been up 15-18 points in first half. Colorado players were excited that they were only down 11, which they took care of in 2 minutes.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: Its DJOver on March 26, 2024, 11:42:28 AM
In that Colorado game, Tre Norman and Ben Gold went 0-4, the worse part of those shots were not even close to going in.  As MU should have been up 15-18 points in first half. Colorado players were excited that they were only down 11, which they took care of in 2 minutes.

Tre did not play. Ben went 0-2, TKO 1-2, Stevie 1-2, Jop 2-2.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401638625

Sorry the facts don't fit your agenda.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 26, 2024, 11:43:03 AM
Believe it or not, I posted the graph because I agree with you. We don't rely on free throws to get points.

I thought that might be the case,  apologies!
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: tower912 on March 26, 2024, 11:43:17 AM
In that Colorado game, Tre Norman and Ben Gold went 0-4, the worse part of those shots were not even close to going in.  As MU should have been up 15-18 points in first half. Colorado players were excited that they were only down 11, which they took care of in 2 minutes.
LoL
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: lawdog77 on March 26, 2024, 12:18:35 PM
In that Colorado game, Tre Norman and Ben Gold went 0-4, the worse part of those shots were not even close to going in.  As MU should have been up 15-18 points in first half. Colorado players were excited that they were only down 11, which they took care of in 2 minutes.
Actually, Colorado saw MU shooting free throws during warmups and were pumped that we were missing so many. That was their motivation.
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: WhiteTrash on March 26, 2024, 12:23:33 PM
In that Colorado game, Tre Norman and Ben Gold went 0-4, the worse part of those shots were not even close to going in.  As MU should have been up 15-18 points in first half. Colorado players were excited that they were only down 11, which they took care of in 2 minutes.
Please remind me how many points "close to going in" free throws are worth? ;D
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: TSmith34, Inc. on March 26, 2024, 12:24:53 PM
In that Colorado game, Tre Norman and Ben Gold went 0-4, the worse part of those shots were not even close to going in.  As MU should have been up 15-18 points in first half. Colorado players were excited that they were only down 11, which they took care of in 2 minutes.

(https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExa2gwb3BhOWdjOTQ0bXdnaGdvc2UzbGwza2hkYW9zaTFzZmVzODJ1bCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/3o7qDK5J5Uerg3atJ6/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: StillAWarrior on March 26, 2024, 12:28:44 PM
In that Colorado game, Tre Norman and Ben Gold went 0-4, the worse part of those shots were not even close to going in.  As MU should have been up 15-18 points in first half. Colorado players were excited that they were only down 11, which they took care of in 2 minutes.

Doing some quick research on debating tactics and social media dynamics. Would you say that including an obvious and demonstrably false statement in your post helped you or hurt you in making your point?
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: MU82 on March 26, 2024, 12:29:21 PM
Tad Boyle at halftime:

"Everybody listen! Did you see Tre Norman's free throws? Neither did I because he wasn't even in the game, but that's not the point! If he was in the game, he'd have missed as bad as Gold Brick did! And that matters, because bad free throw misses actually make their point total go down! So let's get out there and foul them more - maybe even foul Joplin with a few seconds to go cuz he'll pull a Tre Norman for sure! We got this!!!"
Title: Re: FREE THROW ISSUES
Post by: NickelDimer on March 26, 2024, 02:13:28 PM
Believe it or not, I posted the graph because I agree with you. We don't rely on free throws to get points.
I got what you were pointing out fwiw. Also looking at NC State’s rate, I’m glad we don’t foul much and hopefully the refs don’t suddenly get tight.