COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

The India lockdown and the Latin America spread isn't giving me hope that the 'just get to the warm weather' strategy has merit.

[Hards Alumni]

Amazon is seeking public donations to assist in paying its workers sick leave.

Amazon did $280 billion in revenue last year, and had $11.9 billion in profits. It is also owned by the wealthiest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, with a current net worth of $113.9 billion currently.



https://popular.info/p/amazon-soliciting-public-donations-141

Well, those optics are... I don't need to say it.

[MUfan12]

Why would they cancel the Ryder Cup right now?  It's at the end of September.  Because of qualifying?

To try and jam the majors into the August-October window would be my guess.

[skianth16]

The India lockdown and the Latin America spread isn't giving me hope that the 'just get to the warm weather' strategy has merit.

This is 2 weeks old, but early research from the University of Maryland suggests warmer temperatures will help to slow down the spread of the virus.

"Researchers at the Institute of Human Virology at the University of Maryland School of Medicine (UMSOM) and the Global Virus Network (GVN) predict that COVID-19 will follow a seasonal pattern similar to other respiratory viruses like seasonal flu."

“Based on what we have documented so far, it appears that the virus has a harder time spreading between people in warmer, tropical climates,” said study leader Mohammad Sajadi, MD"

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/news/2020/Researchers-Predict-Potential-Spread-and-Seasonality-for-COVID-19-Based-on-Climate-Where-Virus-Appears-to-Thrive.html

[🏀]

Why would they cancel the Ryder Cup right now?  It's at the end of September.  Because of qualifying?

If Augusta drops in October like rumored, they will postpone. If they can’t have the size crowds they want, they’ll postpone. The PGA needs the event at full strength to keep them afloat.

[GooooMarquette]

Prioritize the health crisis.

Let the government deal with the short/medium-term financial problems of employees and small businesses.

That way, we're preventing rapid spread and average Joe isn't stressing about paying their rent.

Going back to work now, or in a week, is a TERRIBLE idea.

Spot on.

[GooooMarquette]

FWIW, Summerfest just made the announcement to reschedule for September. If officials think Summerfest will be OK to hold in September, maybe the Ryder Cup can keep the original dates.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/entertainment/festivals/summerfest/2020/03/23/summerfest-milwaukee-postponed-september-due-coronavirus-pandemic/2899317001/

Maybe.

Or maybe the Olympic folks are right by looking at next year.

At this point, much of it depends on how our "leaders" handle the healthcare aspect of the crisis. And given the paralysis at 1600 Pennsylvania, I wouldn't be too optimistic.

[Mr. Nielsen]

 

Good lord, some can't follow the rules of the board.

[Hards Alumni]

If Augusta drops in October like rumored, they will postpone. If they can’t have the size crowds they want, they’ll postpone. The PGA needs the event at full strength to keep them afloat.

From the article:

“Based on what we have documented so far, it appears that the virus has a harder time spreading between people in warmer, tropical climates,” said study leader Mohammad Sajadi, MD, Associate Professor of Medicine in the UMSOM, physician-scientist at the Institute of Human Virology and a member of GVN.

The team based its predictions on weather data from the previous few months as well as typical patterns from last year to hypothesize on community spread within the next few weeks. “Using 2019 temperature data for March and April, risk of community spread could be predicted to occur in areas just north of the current areas at risk,” said study co-author Augustin Vintzileos, PhD, Assistant Research Scientist in the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center at the University of Maryland, College Park. They plan to investigate whether weather and climate forecasts could help provide more certainty to the predictions.

Researchers from Shiraz University of Medical Sciences in Shiraz, Iran, and Shaheed Beheshti University of Medical Sciences in Tehran, Iran also participated in this study.

“I think what is important is that this is a testable hypothesis,” said study co-author Anthony Amoroso, MD, UMSOM Associate Professor of Medicine and Associate Chief of Infectious Diseases who is also Chief of Clinical Care Programs for the Institute of Human Virology. “If it holds true, it could be very helpful for health system preparation, surveillance and containment efforts.”

In areas where the virus has already spread within the community, like Wuhan, Milan, and Tokyo, temperatures did not dip below the freezing mark, the researchers pointed out. They also based their predictions on a study of the novel coronavirus in the laboratory, which found that a temperature of 39 degrees Fahrenheit and humidity level of 20 to 80 percent is most conducive to the virus’s survival.

“Through this extensive research, it has been determined that weather modeling could potentially explain the spread of COVID-19, making it possible to predict the regions that are most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread in the near future,” said Robert C. Gallo Co-founder & Director, Institute of Human Virology at the University of Maryland School of Medicine and Co-Founder and Chairman of the International Scientific Leadership Board of the GVN.  Dr. Gallo is also The Homer & Martha Gudelsky Distinguished Professor.  “In addition to climate variables, there are multiple factors to be considered when dealing with a pandemic, such as human population densities, human factors, viral genetic evolution and pathogenesis. This work illustrates how collaborative research can contribute to understanding, mitigating and preventing infectious threats.”

Dr. Gallo is a co-founder of the Global Virus Network, which is a consortium of leading virologists spanning 53 Centers of Excellence and nine Affiliates in 32 countries worldwide, working collaboratively to train the next generation, advance knowledge about how to identify and diagnose pandemic viruses, mitigate and control how such viruses spread and make us sick, as well as develop drugs, vaccines and treatments to combat them. The Network has been meeting regularly to discuss the COVID-19 pandemic sharing their expertise in all viral areas and their research findings.

“This study raises some provocative theories that, if correct, could be useful in helping to direct public health strategies,” said UMSOM Dean E. Albert Reece, MD, PhD, MBA, who is also University Executive Vice President for Medical Affairs and the John Z. and Akiko K. Bowers Distinguished Professor. “Perhaps we should be conducting heightened surveillance and expending more resources into areas that currently have the climate that is conducive to community virus spread.”

So, they have zero data except from testing viability of the novel coronavirus in laboratory settings.  I bolded the qualifiers, and there are a ton.

Their hypothesis should be proven correct or incorrect in the coming months.  But watch places like India, Pakistan, Brazil, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and most of Central America.  I think the real problem is that many of those countries lack testing capabilities as well.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Good lord, some can't follow the rules of the board.

Also really hurts their credibility when it comes to actual relevant info. 

But Rocky opened the door to the throwing poo, so....

[jesmu84]

https://twitter.com/mcuban/status/1242441662208622594?s=19

[DegenerateDish]

What's the over/under for hitting the 1,000,000 mark in confirmed cases? I'll set it at noon CST April 3rd.

[rocky_warrior]

Also really hurts their credibility when it comes to actual relevant info. 

But Rocky opened the door to the throwing poo, so....

The door is open for relevant government discussion and criticism.  If you feel someone has posted incorrect or unfair information please try to enlighten others.  That's a better option than saying "rocky's unfairly allowing politics". That's not helpful.  I try to clean up silly bashing of individual politicians (both sides of the isle).  I'm sure there's silly stuff in the thread I missed - but lets just keep moving forward.  Thanks.

[skianth16]

From the article:
So, they have zero data except from testing viability of the novel coronavirus in laboratory settings.  I bolded the qualifiers, and there are a ton.

Their hypothesis should be proven correct or incorrect in the coming months.  But watch places like India, Pakistan, Brazil, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and most of Central America.  I think the real problem is that many of those countries lack testing capabilities as well.

The first paragraph in the link ends with - "They base this on weather modeling data in countries where the virus has taken hold and spread within the community." So they do have data for what has happened so far.

And based on the data they've collected, they find "The distribution of significant community outbreaks along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity are consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus."

If that's not enough, here's some additional research that might be more convincing for you.

"high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities"

"we show that the severity is negatively related to temperature and relative humidity using 14 countries with more than 20 new cases during this period"

"respiratory droplets, as containers of viruses, remain airborne longer in dry air. Second, cold and dry weather can also weaken the hosts’ immunity and make them more susceptible to the virus"

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.05003.pdf

"Our models support the view that the incidence of the virus will follow a seasonal pattern with outbreaks being favored by cool and dry weather, while being slowed down by extreme conditions of cold and heat as well as moist."

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034728v1.full.pdf

[rocky_warrior]

So...officially (CDC count) 11k cases added since yesterday.  That's after an average of 6k per day over the weekend (they only report Fri & Mon numbers).   In comparison, last Monday to Tuesday, 800 cases were added.  Curve is not flattening yet.  Going WAY the wrong direction.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Here is a new data set on the number of tests performed by each state:
https://covidtracking.com/data/

[jesmu84]

https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1242517011550416897?s=19

Anyone think we could see a standoff between the governors and the feds?

[GooooMarquette]

So...officially (CDC count) 11k cases added since yesterday.  That's after an average of 6k per day over the weekend (they only report Fri & Mon numbers).   In comparison, last Monday to Tuesday, 800 cases were added.  Curve is not flattening yet.  Going WAY the wrong direction.

Yep. We will soon have the dubious honor of passing Italy and then China. Probably before the week is out....

[Note: the following sentence was kept deliberately vague to keep from offending the more politically sensitive among us.] It sure would be nice if someone in power took more serious steps to flatten the curve.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

So...officially (CDC count) 11k cases added since yesterday.  That's after an average of 6k per day over the weekend (they only report Fri & Mon numbers).   In comparison, last Monday to Tuesday, 800 cases were added.  Curve is not flattening yet.  Going WAY the wrong direction.

I think it is too early for "social distancing" policies to have shown up yet.  With a few exceptions, shut downs didn't even start until March 14th and even then it was extremely patchwork. 

If the data out of Italy continues to trend down, there is some hope that the policies work faster than expected, but I think we should expect at least another week of climbing up the curve.  Even if that happens, though, it seems idiotic to send everyone back to their normal lives before this is substantially tamped down or we'll just start right up a second leg of the curve.

IMO, the U.S. case fatality rate is artificially high for were we are in the outbreak with the health care system not (yet at least) overwhelmed, which I attribute to our low testing numbers and those being done only on very obviously sick people.  I think we should be much closer to Germany, but that also implies that we have a much higher number of actual cases than the data represents, which I think most everyone agrees on.

[skianth16]

So...officially (CDC count) 11k cases added since yesterday.  That's after an average of 6k per day over the weekend (they only report Fri & Mon numbers).   In comparison, last Monday to Tuesday, 800 cases were added.  Curve is not flattening yet.  Going WAY the wrong direction.

I'd be very curious to see the testing numbers over the same period. Or even the number of hospitalizations, which is the number that is really the most important in the flattening strategy. An increase in confirmed cases due to an increase in tests processed may not be indicative of a worsening of the spread.

[jesmu84]

Have there been any examples of health experts saying we should get back to work?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Curve isn't going to flatten for awhile.  Especially with our patchwork method of locking down.

[jficke13]

Curve isn't going to flatten for awhile.  Especially with our patchwork method of locking down.

That and the fact that any lock down instituted today won't pay dividends that would show up in infection numbers for 10-14 days

[jesmu84]

Curve isn't going to flatten for awhile.  Especially with our patchwork method of locking down.

And even with the state to state patchwork, those states that have locked down aren't really locking down anything significant as it seems every single job is "essential"

[lawdog77]

Here is a new data set on the number of tests performed by each state:
https://covidtracking.com/data/

New Jersey numbersa are crazy:
New Jersey
New Jersey on Twitter
Positive
2,844
Negative
359
Pending
94
Hospitalized
N/A
Deaths
27
Total
3,297