Season outlook took a hit

[We R Final Four]

You said it well.  Reality hurts sometimes but Hanif was playing his way deeper into the bench.

Exactly—wasn’t there a scooper who kept clammering on about this being HCs breakout year, and how he was undervalued and we would all see......?

[Galway Eagle]

I get the general point but just to be a stickler:
in '14-'15 we were 13-19 in the Big East

in '88-'89 we were 13-15 as an independent and an easier schedule
in '87-'88 we were 10-19 as an independent and an easier schedule

No question though 2014-15 was one of our worst seasons in 50 years as a program.

Fair enough, call it an even 20?

[CTWarrior]

MH didn’t even get up on the jump ball because he wasn’t ready to play........because HC left the team??

When I was in high school, after I shook hands with the opposing center, the referee said, "OK, guys, I'm going to count 1, 2, 3 and toss the ball.  Got it?"
Two seconds later, he stepped between us, looked at us and tossed the ball without counting.  Neither of us jumped.  Had to be the weirdest looking opening jump ball ever.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I haven't changed my expectations with Cheatham's departure.  I viewed us as a bubble team at the start and still do.  Losing Cheatham hurts from a numbers perspective but his contribution is replaceable.  Using Goose's eye test method, I felt Anim was closing the gap on Cheatham already.  Anim is stronger with an extra 15 lbs of muscle and a more explosive leaper.

And the advanced stats support my eye test.  So far this year:

Anim vs Cheatham

O-Rating
119.3 vs 96.3

D-Rating
113.3 vs 113.2

USG%
13.4 vs 18.6

eFG%
.468 vs .500

TRB%
8.4 vs 7.0

AST%
11.9 vs 9.9

STL%
2.3 vs 2.2

BLK%
0.7 vs 0.0

TOV%
7.6 vs 16.6


PER
12.9 vs 10.4

So Sacar is better or equal to Cheatham in almost every advanced metric.  Anim is deserving of more minutes. 

[MarquetteDano]

I haven't changed my expectations with Cheatham's departure.  I viewed us as a bubble team at the start and still do.  Losing Cheatham hurts from a numbers perspective but his contribution is replaceable.  Using Goose's eye test method, I felt Anim was closing the gap on Cheatham already.  Anim is stronger with an extra 15 lbs of muscle and a more explosive leaper.

And the advanced stats support my eye test. 
So Sacar is better or equal to Cheatham in almost every advanced metric.  Anim is deserving of more minutes.

I think the issue is throughout an entire season various things occur:  injuries (even if just within a game), foul trouble, players just having off games, etc..

There is no question Anim is a better defender.  Like you posted,  he is perhaps becoming a better offensive player too.  The question is depth which we lost.  I think it costs us at least one game this year.  That one game could cost us a tourney bid.

[jsglow]

I think the issue is throughout an entire season various things occur:  injuries (even if just within a game), foul trouble, players just having off games, etc..

There is no question Anim is a better defender.  Like you posted,  he is perhaps becoming a better offensive player too.  The question is depth which we lost.  I think it costs us at least one game this year.  That one game could cost us a tourney bid.

It's the ripple effect.  Losing Cheatham requires greater contribution from Elliott and Cain.  That'll require them to grow up quickly.  And we sure as heck can't have a backcourt injury.  On Monday I stopped watching the game and turned my complete attention to Markus on the bike.

[naginiF]

This thread disappoints me.  At its heart is a bunch of backward thinking that every transfer is a strike against the program.  How about the incoming kids?


Out
Traci Carter
Duane Wilson
Hannif Cheatam
Sandy Cohen

In
Andrew Rowsey
Katin Reinhardt
Harry Froling
Ed Morrow

Question ... which is the better list of players?  Out or In?

Hands down it is In.  The massive amount of transfers in college sports (and basketball in particular) is a net positive for MU.  Root for more transfers as we get better, not worse, because of it.

So, change your Depends and update your thinking ... you should expect at least 1 transfer a semester.  And don't be shocked if we have another one before school starts in January.  And, also expect Wojo to get a better player in return.

I completely agree that the view of every transfer as a mark on the program, only looking at the loss column vs the additions, and not accepting that this is the way CBB has been and will be is confounding.

[MU82]

When I was in high school, after I shook hands with the opposing center, the referee said, "OK, guys, I'm going to count 1, 2, 3 and toss the ball.  Got it?"
Two seconds later, he stepped between us, looked at us and tossed the ball without counting.  Neither of us jumped.  Had to be the weirdest looking opening jump ball ever.

One of my favorite "weird memories" from all of my years going to Bulls games was the first game after the lockout ended in Jan 1999. It also was the first game of the post-Michael, post-Scottie, post-Phil, post-relevance era.

Wennington, always a good talker, is handed the microphone at midcourt to say a few words to fans. He apologized in advance for what the fans would see that season. Then, after vowing that the players would work hard to make Bulls fans proud, he didn't even bother jumping for the opening tip. Indiana got it and scored ... and it all went downhill from there.

[skianth16]

So Sacar is better or equal to Cheatham in almost every advanced metric.  Anim is deserving of more minutes.

To some extent, numbers don't lie, but on the other hand, do statistics always represent what's really going on on the floor? They certainly don't capture what happens in the locker room, the practice gym, the weight room, etc. Sacar is playing well and will probably do a good job of filling the the role HC had on the floor, but losing an experienced guy will always hurt the team, unfortunately. Even though we have some good young guys, I'll always take a veteran with experience to lead a team, even if he's not the best player on the court. This loss hurts, but it may not be so easily quantified.

[DCHoopster]

Everything is building for a very competitive team next year, not saying they can not be be good this year, but Hanif might have seen his minutes going down in the
future, for sure next year.  Sam will move to the 3, Joey might be the 4 and Morrow maybe the 5 if the three centers do not work out.  Add the improvement of the Sacar,
Cain and Elliott and playing time might have been a problem.  Sorry to see him go, but it opens a spot for a graduate point guard or freshman who sees what MU
has.  Time will tell.  And I am not mentioning Bailey as I am not sure at this time what position he will play, but assuming it is a wing.

[Lennys Tap]

We lost some depth, but it's not like Haanif had skills that his replacements lack. He's a better shooter than Sacar or Elliott but was still option #4 in the starting line up from behind the arc. And he hit his free throws, but FT% no matta. Sacar is already a much better slasher - both finishing and on the drive and dish. Both Sacar and Elliott are tougher defenders. So 5 fewer fouls to give, a little less experience and a slightly lower floor in the short run vs a possibly significantly higher ceiling medium and long term (depending on the development of Sacar and the freshmen). Nothing to invoke weeping and gnashing of teeth.

[barfolomew]

So Sacar is better or equal to Cheatham in almost every advanced metric.  Anim is deserving of more minutes.

I guarantee that Anim will get more minutes than Cheatham for the remainder of the season.
#donedeal

[skianth16]

We lost some depth, but it's not like Haanif had skills that his replacements lack. He's a better shooter than Sacar or Elliott but was still option #4 in the starting line up from behind the arc. And he hit his free throws, but FT% no matta. Sacar is already a much better slasher - both finishing and on the drive and dish. Both Sacar and Elliott are tougher defenders. So 5 fewer fouls to give, a little less experience and a slightly lower floor in the short run vs a possibly significantly higher ceiling medium and long term (depending on the development of Sacar and the freshmen). Nothing to invoke weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The 5 fewer fouls sucks, but the bigger problem, in my eyes, is losing available veteran minutes. Athletically, HC is replaceable, sure. But for now, I'd rather have a junior on the floor in a tight game (*cough* EIU *cough*) than a freshman. Plus, just losing a body mi-year makes game planning harder and forces guys to play more minutes than they would have otherwise. We'll bounce back, and the young guys will step up, but this makes their learning curve that much steeper.

[Silkk the Shaka]

One of my favorite "weird memories" from all of my years going to Bulls games was the first game after the lockout ended in Jan 1999. It also was the first game of the post-Michael, post-Scottie, post-Phil, post-relevance era.

Wennington, always a good talker, is handed the microphone at midcourt to say a few words to fans. He apologized in advance for what the fans would see that season. Then, after vowing that the players would work hard to make Bulls fans proud, he didn't even bother jumping for the opening tip. Indiana got it and scored ... and it all went downhill from there.

LOL amazing

[PorkysButthole]

To borrow from Donald Rumsfeld, MU is going to do battle with the team we have, not the team we wish we had.   Take a long, objective look at the size, experience, and talent level of this team.    Adjust your expectations accordingly.

Agree with this wholeheartedly.  While I'm sorry to see HC go, this notion that our season may now be a wash or in serious jeopardy is a bit exaggerated.  Yes we'd be more balanced if he were still here but it's not like we were ever expected to make much noise next March in the first place so the calculus hasn't changed from my vantage point.

[bilsu]

When burton left we had the worst season in 50+ years of MUBB

Some people think it had to do with Dawson leaving.

[MU82]

This thread disappoints me.  At its heart is a bunch of backward thinking that every transfer is a strike against the program.  How about the incoming kids?


Out
Traci Carter
Duane Wilson
Hannif Cheatam
Sandy Cohen

In
Andrew Rowsey
Katin Reinhardt
Harry Froling
Ed Morrow

Question ... which is the better list of players?  Out or In?

Hands down it is In.  The massive amount of transfers in college sports (and basketball in particular) is a net positive for MU.  Root for more transfers as we get better, not worse, because of it.

So, change your Depends and update your thinking ... you should expect at least 1 transfer a semester.  And don't be shocked if we have another one before school starts in January.  And, also expect Wojo to get a better player in return.

Holy smokes ... strike up the effen band ... Smuggles and I actually agree on something!!

I would have included Rowsey and Carlino as in and Deonte, Taylor and Magic as out - all of which took place under Wojo's watch - and I also would have said it in a way that didn't make me sound like I was trying to flex my superiority. But I agree wholeheartedly with Smuggles' thesis.

So far, "the transfer game" has been a plus under Wojo. Quite arguably a major plus.

This simply is the way college basketball works today.

I also agree with Pilot's post:

Everyone seems to believe hanni was the savior of MU basketball or something.

Nice player, but by no means have my expectations of the NCAA tournament berth changed.  I won't miss Hanni continuously getting stuffed at the rim each game.  His offense was subpar. No right hand finish, and could hit the open 3 once in a while.

Elliot has shown me he's much better defensively and Anim can make up for the loss of Hanni's offensive production.

I hope we'll for the young man, but I think this could be a good thing.  Freshman getting a lot of run and contributing early.

Our depth takes a hit - and that's never fun. But if Elliott, Cain and Sacar develop as it looks like they might, this could end up being a net positive for us - definitely for next season, but even for this year.

I'm staying open-minded about it. Not only because it takes less energy and makes me feel better to be positive than negative, but also because it's out of my control.

Even if I thought losing Haani was a tragedy (I don't) and if I thought Wojo was losing the "transfer game" (I definitely don't), it STILL would be better to be open-minded and positive.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The biggest loss of anyone on the "out" category should be Gabe Levin.  That dude would have been incredible useful this season and the last 2.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/68087/gabe-levin

[Galway Eagle]

The biggest loss of anyone on the "out" category should be Gabe Levin.  That dude would have been incredible useful this season and the last 2.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/68087/gabe-levin

Guy had the best high school education Illinois can offer

[Windyplayer]

Guy had the best high school education Illinois can offer

[Lennys Tap]

The biggest loss of anyone on the "out" category should be Gabe Levin.  That dude would have been incredible useful this season and the last 2.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/68087/gabe-levin

Yep. Trading Levin for Henry was a big loser for the program.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Yep. Trading Levin for Henry was a big loser for the program.

Not just Levin. Also Taylor. Possibly others such as Kyle Washington and Harry Froling (as a freshman). Hard to see that up front, hindsight is 20/20

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yep. Trading Levin for Henry was a big loser for the program.

We traded Levin for Henry?  Wasn't aware that Marquette was only able to use 11 of their 13 allotted scholarships in 15-16. 

edit: not sure if you're being sarcastic or not.   

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Not just Levin. Also Taylor. Possibly others such as Kyle Washington and Harry Froling (as a freshman). Hard to see that up front, hindsight is 20/20

Fair. But landing Henry helped us get Froling on the rebound by showing Harry how Wojo can incorporate a skilled big man.

I think being competitive in Wojo's 2nd year helped us land Howard.  No way to know if the relationship with Stan would've been enough if MU was last in the BE two years in a row.

Landing Henry may have even helped legitimize Wojo in the state and help with Wojo's recruiting efforts for the Hausers.  I don't have any insider knowledge saying that was the case but I think it is a plausible theory. BD did post once about a domino effect where landing HE helped get Markus, Sam, and Joey.

So landing Henry hurt in some ways but may have helped in others.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We traded Levin for Henry?  Wasn't aware that Marquette was only able to use 11 of their 13 allotted scholarships in 15-16. 

edit: not sure if you're being sarcastic or not.   

We absolutely traded Levin for Henry. It was made clear that Henry was committing during his on campus and Levin announced he was transferring shortly after that. Taylor also left because Henry was coming in.

Fair. But landing Henry helped us get Froling on the rebound by showing Harry how Wojo can incorporate a skilled big man.

I think being competitive in Wojo's 2nd year helped us land Howard.  No way to know if the relationship with Stan would've been enough if MU was last in the BE two years in a row.

Landing Henry may have even helped legitimize Wojo in the state and help with Wojo's recruiting efforts for the Hausers.  I don't have any insider knowledge saying that was the case but I think it is a plausible theory. BD did post once about a domino effect where landing HE helped get Markus, Sam, and Joey.

So landing Henry hurt in some ways but may have helped in others.

All fair. Impossible to know how things would have shaken out without Henry.