[Cracked Sidewalks] What is up with Ousmane Barro?

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

What is up with Ousmane Barro?
From Todd Rosiak's chat tonight:

Q: LP of Chicago - Why isn't Ooze really starting? We have had big problems on the boards this year. This will only get worse vs UW and in the BE. If anything, start him in to win the jump ball.

A: Todd Rosiak - Start him to win the jump ball? You're joking, right? Barro isn't starting because of his proclivity for early foul trouble, as well as for the energy he's been bringing off the bench. Use Burke to bang around early, then bring Barro in and get some stuff done a few minutes in. Makes sense to me. That also could change in the coming games, especially if Burke continues to be the non-factor he was in Maui.


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I gather from Rosiak's answer above that Crean indicated Barro is coming off the bench to avoid early fouls. Whatever. Barro has not started a single game in the current campaign, so it is not possible for him to have a 'proclivity for early foul trouble' because by definition he's not even in the game early.

Still, if Barro had this 'proclivity' everybody would have noticed it last season when the big fella started all 34 games for Marquette and averaged just 2.6 personal fouls per game (which was far less than the 3.5 fouls per game delivered by McNeal or the 2.9 from Fitzgerald last season, and in line with Matthews' 2.5 per game).

Look, this should be a much bigger issue for TC with the media and fan base, IMHO. A senior, a 34-game starter just one year ago is now an underachieving bench player relegated to watching a marginal Big East post player take his minutes.......all to avoid a few early fouls? That's silly -- it is not like Barro is being benched in favor of bona fide Big East talent.

The early foul trouble notion is merely an excuse. Barro must be coming off the bench for other reasons - - maybe he's hurt, perhaps he's plateaued as a player, he might have tuned the coach out, or maybe he's simply regressed. After demonstrating substantial improvement between his sophomore and junior seasons, Tom Crean surely didn't expect his big man to take three steps back as a senior.

Something is amiss.

Barro's minutes are down dramatically from 27+ a year ago to just about 20 per game now, and he's averaging fewer points per game than he did as a sophomore. And wouldn't you know it, his fouls per game are up this year. Note to self: perhaps Barro is a lousy bench player. Can anybody envision a scenario where a former starter does not adjust well to a reduced role as a marginalized bench player thereby making himself even less effective when he enters the game?

Simply put - - as a starter, Barro scores more and fouls less than he does as a bench player. The logic is flawed. Let's hope TC changes course soon, or that Barro helps Crean see the light and earns his starting role once again. This team needs him.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2007/11/what-is-up-with-ousmane-barro.html

[chefrad]

A lesson in motivation early in the season. If TM were around, we'd see a lot more of it.

[jutaw22mu]

Ooze will be fine once the Big East season starts up.  He lost a lot of steam toward the end of last season so maybe part of the strategy is to limit his minutes in games early on in the season that we should win handily.  I think we will see a lot of him against Bucky.  Once the BEast season starts, he probably will begin starting.

[bma725]

Pretty sure Crean did expect him to take steps back when he found out that Barro wasn't going to spend the summer at MU working on his game but instead was going back home for the summer.  He may have even said as much at one of those dinners.  Ooze missed a lot of valuable practice time and it's hard for someone who still needs a ton of coaching and practice to make up for that.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Good point about limiting his minutes.

Ooze is probably one of the more fit big men in the conference, but his style of play requires a ton of energy and he constantly sprints from baseline to baseline.

Evenly distributing his minutes early on with Burke will probably keep him fresher and more effective over the course of the season.

I assume coach knows what he is trying to do because he sees these guys every day in practice... but we shall see.

[Henry Sugar]

I agree that Ousmane's numbers are down across the board.  If you really want to add to the doom and gloom:

His effective FG% is down, he's getting a lower rate of Offensive Rebounds, he's committing a higher rate of turnovers, his offensive efficiency (points / possession) is down, and he's scoring less points per weighted shot.**

On the plus side, Ouse's Efficiency Per Minute is up.

I'm just not all that worried about it.  The team has played five games out of 31+ (hopefully).  That's only about 15% of the season.  Three of those games were against IUPUI, Utah Valley State, and Chaminade.  The team has played zero conference games and one marquee game. 

I note that against Duke, Ouse played 28 minutes.  I'll worry if the numbers don't look better after 25%-35% of the season. 

[ToddPacker]

Can anyone say "small sample size?"  It's not how you start the race, it is how you finish it.  Did anyone else notice that Barro disappeared by the end of last season?  Maybe limiting him early-on will prevent this from happening.  Also, Crean is sending a message to the rest of the team that putting in year round work is expected if you want to start. 

[tower912]

bma nailed it.   Ooze, who has come further than any big man at MU in my recollection, did not progress since last year because he went home and took months off.   He is trying to rid himself of rust and get back to where he was last year, but our expectations are higher.   I expect he that by the start of conference play, he will be playing like he did at his best last year.    Until then, let Burke start and get the early fouls and let Ooze come in.

[Pardner]

It is more about Ooze's playing time and just his big presence on the floor.  Henry inspried me to do some quick stats over the past two seasons where he had consistent PT. 

With Ooze as a starter, MU averages 33.7 RPG vs. 30.6 off the bench (despite Ooze being more productive personally).  Rebound gap vs. competitors when he starts is +3.3 vs. -0.2 when off the bench.  His minutes are 26.9 as a stater vs. 20.4 this year off the bench.  So, Ooze adds a lot more than him personally grabbing rebounds--he takes up space, blocks out, blocks shots, seals off lanes, etc.--when he plays more. 

What does this really mean?  Building a simple model (my apologies) to predict MU wins based upon rebounding advantage and Ooze minutes, MU would win only 57% of their games if he averages 20.4 minutes and MU rebound deficit is -0.2 rpg.  So, yes he will play more as the season moves along even though this is a very simplistic look.  If it was really about foul trouble, TC could go to a zone to protect him.  This is about a reward for Burke's hard work and his need for more experience.

[Murffieus]

"Early foul trouble" is an excuse------what's the difference if he has to sit because he's in foul trouble or because of perceived ineffectiveness-----minutes are minutes!

I think TC is trying to motivate him into more aggressiveness and this has worked from time to time, but the results aren't consistent.

Technically Barro has two problems----weak hands and is slow reacting. For his part OB mak be tired of setting picks and hiding behind the backboard waiting for dishoffs-----wanting to be more directly involved in the offense----so he's sulking a bit!

[Henry Sugar]

With Ooze as a starter, MU averages 33.7 RPG vs. 30.6 off the bench (despite Ooze being more productive personally).  Rebound gap vs. competitors when he starts is +3.3 vs. -0.2 when off the bench. 

What does this really mean?  Building a simple model (my apologies) to predict MU wins based upon rebounding advantage and Ooze minutes, MU would win only 57% of their games if he averages 20.4 minutes and MU rebound deficit is -0.2 rpg. 

outstanding!  What's the win% if Ouse gets his starter minutes with the rebound advantage?

[Pardner]

outstanding!  What's the win% if Ouse gets his starter minutes with the rebound advantage?

If starter minutes and 3.3 reb. advantage:  73%  (I used a log to account for diminishing returns in minutes)

In MU wins, the average reb advantage is 5.1, vs. -2.5 in losses (and Ooze plays less minutes in losses historically)....so
If starter minutes and 5.2 advantage:  77%
If 30 minutes and 5.2 advantage.:  79%

Interesting to note that in MU wins, Ooze gets a slightly smaller share of MU's total rebounds than in MU losses (despite playing less minutes in losses).