MLB 2017 Season

[buckchuckler]

What a reversal from game 5.  Game 7's rock.  The pitching parade is going  to be epic.  Could see Verlander and Hill.

And we will almost certainly see Keuchel and Kershaw.  Should be fun!

[MerrittsMustache]

Anyone who questions the baseball's slickness and tightness (i.e. "being juiced") just needs to watch the HRs hit last night. Those both looked like routine flyballs and both went several rows deep.

That said, tonight should be loads of fun...and, for this Cubs fan, WAY less exhausting than last year's Game 7!

[tower912]

Agreed.  I thought Pedersons (sp?) Was a routine fly off the end of the bat.  Then everybody tensed up.

[MU82]

Aaaaaand that's why I'm not a manager.

I HATE bunting. I would be one of those managers who almost never does it (except with a pitcher).

Taylor has not been an easy out all postseason. Plus, he can fly; in 274 career games, he has only grounded into 8 DP, none this postseason. I hate to give away that out.

[CTWarrior]

I HATE bunting. I would be one of those managers who almost never does it (except with a pitcher).

Taylor has not been an easy out all postseason. Plus, he can fly; in 274 career games, he has only grounded into 8 DP, none this postseason. I hate to give away that out.

There have been numerous studies about bunting.  It greatly reduces your chances for multiple runs and slightly reduces you chances of scoring one run.  (Your odds of scoring a run with a runner on first and no outs are greater than your odds of scoring a run with a runner on second with one out.)  I agree use only for pitches and maybe some terrible hitters who are double play prone (like backup catchers or something).

[Jockey]

Anyone who questions the baseball's slickness and tightness (i.e. "being juiced") just needs to watch the HRs hit last night. Those both looked like routine flyballs and both went several rows deep.

That said, tonight should be loads of fun...and, for this Cubs fan, WAY less exhausting than last year's Game 7!

No. Watch Peterson's reaction. Looks like he knew he had a dinger.

Interesting, though that the ball is only juiced when they play in Houston. Players only hit the PEDs when they play there, as well.


Gotta laugh when I hear about all of the runs and HRs occurring. Lots of runs will score in a hitter's park. Not a lot of runs score in a pitcher's park.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

There have been numerous studies about bunting.  It greatly reduces your chances for multiple runs and slightly reduces you chances of scoring one run.  (Your odds of scoring a run with a runner on first and no outs are greater than your odds of scoring a run with a runner on second with one out.)  I agree use only for pitches and maybe some terrible hitters who are double play prone (like backup catchers or something).

+1

[buckchuckler]

+1

So unless I am reading the chart wrong, it looks like better odds of scoring 2nd and 3rd one out than 1st and 2nd none out.  That seems to make a case for bunting (at least in that case) and backup other similar data I have heard in the past.

[buckchuckler]

No. Watch Peterson's reaction. Looks like he knew he had a dinger.

Interesting, though that the ball is only juiced when they play in Houston. Players only hit the PEDs when they play there, as well.


Gotta laugh when I hear about all of the runs and HRs occurring. Lots of runs will score in a hitter's park. Not a lot of runs score in a pitcher's park.

Yeah, Pederson knew he got that right away.  And in the reverse case,  I think Seager (and I know I...)thought he had a 3 run homer on that SF to right. 

[wadesworld]

No. Watch Peterson's reaction. Looks like he knew he had a dinger.

Interesting, though that the ball is only juiced when they play in Houston. Players only hit the PEDs when they play there, as well.


Gotta laugh when I hear about all of the runs and HRs occurring. Lots of runs will score in a hitter's park. Not a lot of runs score in a pitcher's park.

So you would know better than the professionals who have played the sport their whole lives and are the ones actually using the baseballs?

I'm guessing both the Astros and the Dodgers, both of whom have said something's up with the baseballs, would have a much better idea as to whether something was different with the baseballs than you, someone who (I assume) has not had any experience with the baseballs they're using in the WS.

[🏀]

So you would know better than the professionals who have played the sport their whole lives and are the ones actually using the baseballs?

I'm guessing both the Astros and the Dodgers, both of whom have said something's up with the baseballs, would have a much better idea as to whether something was different with the baseballs than you, someone who (I assume) has not had any experience with the baseballs they're using in the WS.

Of course they're different, there's a gold world series logo on them.

[Jockey]

So you would know better than the professionals who have played the sport their whole lives and are the ones actually using the baseballs?

I'm guessing both the Astros and the Dodgers, both of whom have said something's up with the baseballs, would have a much better idea as to whether something was different with the baseballs than you, someone who (I assume) has not had any experience with the baseballs they're using in the WS.

Nope. But they are different as PTM pointed out.

So, the balls and players are juiced. Yet, the two teams are averaging only 3.5 runs a game at Dodger Stadium in the WS - where the average is about 4.5 per game. Plus, the park gives up more homers than the average stadium in MLB.



This is at a park that gives up more homers than the average stadium in MLB.

[🏀]

Nope. But they are different as PTM pointed out.

So, the balls and players are juiced. Yet, the two teams are averaging only 3.5 runs a game at Dodger Stadium in the WS - where the average is about 4.5 per game. Plus, the park gives up more homers than the average stadium in MLB.



This is at a park that gives up more homers than the average stadium in MLB.

Some issue that you can't use regular season park factors during the playoffs, the caliber of pitcher is much higher.

That would be a good research paper though, playoff ballpark factors, their regression and this year's ballpark factors

[MU82]

So unless I am reading the chart wrong, it looks like better odds of scoring 2nd and 3rd one out than 1st and 2nd none out.  That seems to make a case for bunting (at least in that case) and backup other similar data I have heard in the past.

Which is why I don't go to some kind of chart as an all-occasion solution.

You know your hitters. You know who is up with two on and nobody out and who is following them and who is getting a good bat on the ball and who isn't. Turner could do no wrong in the first 2 rounds but he hasn't been able to hit his way out of a paper bag in the WS.

I've been on Roberts for his handling of his pitchers, but I totally believe he did the right thing there ... and the results showed it. I wouldn't even have thought of bunting Taylor there.

[buckchuckler]

Which is why I don't go to some kind of chart as an all-occasion solution.

You know your hitters. You know who is up with two on and nobody out and who is following them and who is getting a good bat on the ball and who isn't. Turner could do no wrong in the first 2 rounds but he hasn't been able to hit his way out of a paper bag in the WS.

I've been on Roberts for his handling of his pitchers, but I totally believe he did the right thing there ... and the results showed it. I wouldn't even have thought of bunting Taylor there.

Yeah.  Definitely.  For me it was more about how Verlander was pitching than anything else.   If I were the manager I would have been thinking "we at least need to tie this game up".  But you are right about Taylor (his last AB not withstanding) he has been their toughest out.

[DegenerateDish]

I've been on the road all week, why didn't Kershaw start this game? Why would Darvish, who I believe didn't have a swing/miss in Game 3, start? I don't get it, Roberts should get some questions his way (unless I missed something obvious here).

[drewm88]

I've been on the road all week, why didn't Kershaw start this game? Why would Darvish, who I believe didn't have a swing/miss in Game 3, start? I don't get it, Roberts should get some questions his way (unless I missed something obvious here).

He's on two days rest.

[buckchuckler]

I've been on the road all week, why didn't Kershaw start this game? Why would Darvish, who I believe didn't have a swing/miss in Game 3, start? I don't get it, Roberts should get some questions his way (unless I missed something obvious here).

You didn't miss anything.  Apparently they had faith in Darvish as there was no talk of anyone else starting.  Quite the misstep.  Darvish couldn't handle the moment apparently.

By the way, I liked the gesture by Gurriel.  He did something terribly stupid, ignorant and insensitive, but I liked how he took the moment to make a very public apology.

[DegenerateDish]

He's on two days rest.

It's game 7, everyone is a go. What's he resting for, his tee time at Riviera on Friday?

Just do what they ended up doing, start Kershaw, have him go 3, go from there.

[buckchuckler]

Hat tip to the Astros.  Great World Series.  Great call SI. 

[HouWarrior]

Hat tip to the Astros.  Great World Series.  Great call SI.

In 2014....SI called it ....including putting the WS MVP on the cover.

I am beyond happy...words will come later

[Jockey]

Some issue that you can't use regular season park factors during the playoffs, the caliber of pitcher is much higher.

That would be a good research paper though, playoff ballpark factors, their regression and this year's ballpark factors

I agree as pitchers are used differently now in the post-season.

I was just making a point that Dodger Stafdium is a better than average park to hit HRs.

[Jockey]

Hat tip to the Astros.  Great World Series.  Great call SI.

Agree 100%. Great games.

[tower912]

Reversing the SI cover jinx.

[CTWarrior]

So unless I am reading the chart wrong, it looks like better odds of scoring 2nd and 3rd one out than 1st and 2nd none out.  That seems to make a case for bunting (at least in that case) and backup other similar data I have heard in the past.

But it reduces greatly your chances of scoring more than one run.  You're also ignoring the fact that bunts are very often not successful.  The chart you refer to assumes the bunt was successful.  The scenario you described often ends up in failure (the lead runner is thrown out) or an 0-2 or 1-2 count on the batter, which lowers his batting average by over 100 points.  In general it is not a good idea.  In a few specific cases, it may be different.