MLB 2017 Season

[buckchuckler]

Stanton cleared waivers.  The Marlins might be wise to sell high and try to move while he is healthy and having an outstanding season.  Still 10 years and almost $300 million left on his deal, though.

Such an interesting case.  I think he would be difficult to trade for if you are the opposing GM.  Is he a game changing bat?  Check.  Unmatched power?  Check.  Huge contract?  Check. Significant injury concerns?  Check. Opt out risk?  Check.

His current contract runs another 10 years and 285 million if he doesn't opt out.  Not exactly a bargain.  Factor in that he has only played 150 games 1 time in 7 seasons (not counting this year), and that this is his first time hitting 40 HRs, there is a huge amount of risk.  That money could devastate many teams if Stanton isn't everything he has been this year.  The payoff?  Well a bat that can instantly change any game.  A huge gamble just to take the contract, much less to trade away good prospects.  A very interesting case indeed...

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Such an interesting case.  I think he would be difficult to trade for if you are the opposing GM.  Is he a game changing bat?  Check.  Unmatched power?  Check.  Huge contract?  Check. Significant injury concerns?  Check. Opt out risk?  Check.

His current contract runs another 10 years and 285 million if he doesn't opt out.  Not exactly a bargain.  Factor in that he has only played 150 games 1 time in 7 seasons (not counting this year), and that this is his first time hitting 40 HRs, there is a huge amount of risk.  That money could devastate many teams if Stanton isn't everything he has been this year.  The payoff?  Well a bat that can instantly change any game.  A huge gamble just to take the contract, much less to trade away good prospects.  A very interesting case indeed...

I'd be stunned if a team took on the entire contract and parted with good prospects but I guess you never know.

[Jockey]

Stanton cleared waivers.  The Marlins might be wise to sell high and try to move while he is healthy and having an outstanding season.  Still 10 years and almost $300 million left on his deal, though.

I think this is a fairly regular process used by teams. There is no risk to Miami - if someone claims him, they just revoke the waiver.

I recall this happening with both big money guys and marginal guys. I guess the main benefit is that if they did want to trade him after the trade deadline, they can now do it.

[🏀]

I think this is a fairly regular process used by teams. There is no risk to Miami - if someone claims him, they just revoke the waiver.

I recall this happening with both big money guys and marginal guys. I guess the main benefit is that if they did want to trade him after the trade deadline, they can now do it.

Correct, almost every player on non contending teams are on waivers.

See Rios, Alex.

[buckchuckler]

I think this is a fairly regular process used by teams. There is no risk to Miami - if someone claims him, they just revoke the waiver.

I recall this happening with both big money guys and marginal guys. I guess the main benefit is that if they did want to trade him after the trade deadline, they can now do it.

Very true, but there has been some chatter on the topic.  Jeff Passan had an article on this topic today.  His opinion was that Miami should trade him but also stated the Marlins have had talks about him, including some fairly serious talks with the Giants.

I highly doubt anything would happen, but as I think about it I would love to see him on the Angels.  He and Trout would be fuuuuun.  One in a million or so though.

[wadesworld]

Put him in Miller Park and let him chase the single season home run record.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I think this is a fairly regular process used by teams. There is no risk to Miami - if someone claims him, they just revoke the waiver.

I recall this happening with both big money guys and marginal guys. I guess the main benefit is that if they did want to trade him after the trade deadline, they can now do it.

I realize all of this but Stanton is a unique situation.

[buckchuckler]

Dodgers.  Wow.  50 games over.  Quite impressive.

[buckchuckler]

I'd be stunned if a team took on the entire contract and parted with good prospects but I guess you never know.

Didn't mean to imply that.  Obviously no team would do that.  No team was willing to risk just having the contract. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Didn't mean to imply that.  Obviously no team would do that.  No team was willing to risk just having the contract.

You're probably right but I've seen too much to never say never.

[buckchuckler]

Joey Gallo has 35 HRs, and 36 singles, doubles and triples combined. 

[buckchuckler]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/kris-bryant-surprises-kids-hospital-greeted-sweet-marriage-proposal-232540610.html

Fun story, even if it is about an evil cub.

[Lennys Tap]

Didn't mean to imply that.  Obviously no team would do that.  No team was willing to risk just having the contract.

Because of the opt out. Without it, I think odds are he'd turn out to be fair value, maybe even a bargain. In 2 years (when the White Sox are ready to contend) he'd look pretty good in right field for us.

[buckchuckler]

Because of the opt out. Without it, I think odds are he'd turn out to be fair value, maybe even a bargain. In 2 years (when the White Sox are ready to contend) he'd look pretty good in right field for us.

I don't see how the opt out plays a role in this case.  If the Sox had claimed him, the Marlins may have just let him go (the aforementioned Alex Rios case).  They wouldn't have necessarily had to trade anything to get him (not saying the Marlins would have let him go for nothing, but the possibility exists).  They didn't claim him, to me that says they didn't want to shoulder the risk of being on the hook for the entirety of his remaining contract, regardless of the players required in return. 

And if he opts out he will be walking out on 8 years and 233 million (29.125 / year).  I would have to think the odds of him opting out are pretty low.  Especially because he would be 31 following his opt out.  There could be a lot of bad money on that deal.

[Lennys Tap]

I don't see how the opt out plays a role in this case.  If the Sox had claimed him, the Marlins may have just let him go (the aforementioned Alex Rios case).  They wouldn't have necessarily had to trade anything to get him (not saying the Marlins would have let him go for nothing, but the possibility exists).  They didn't claim him, to me that says they didn't want to shoulder the risk of being on the hook for the entirety of his remaining contract, regardless of the players required in return. 

And if he opts out he will be walking out on 8 years and 233 million (29.125 / year).  I would have to think the odds of him opting out are pretty low.  Especially because he would be 31 following his opt out.  There could be a lot of bad money on that deal.

First, I think there is almost zero chance the Marlins would let him go for nothing. Second, the Sox are probably 2+ years away from competing (either 2019 or 2020) so the timing is bad - no way the Sox will spend 60 million when they're not competing only to have him opt out when they are.

It's just my opinion, but I believe that when 2020 rolls around 29M a year for Stanton will be a relative bargain. Harper may be making 40M a year by then.

[Jockey]

First, I think there is almost zero chance the Marlins would let him go for nothing. Second, the Sox are probably 2+ years away from competing (either 2019 or 2020) so the timing is bad - no way the Sox will spend 60 million when they're not competing only to have him opt out when they are.

It's just my opinion, but I believe that when 2020 rolls around 29M a year for Stanton will be a relative bargain. Harper may be making 40M a year by then.

I think "almost zero chance" is probably a little high.

[buckchuckler]

That may be true, but the fact is, there are zero teams that were willing to take that chance.  And while his contract may look reasonable in a couple years, Stanton is no where near the caliber of player of Harper.  Stanton is a power bat.  That is all.  Harper is in a different category.  Even with his injury this season, he has a chance to win his 2nd MVP at age 24.  Stanton's contract should look like a bargain by comparison. 
Stanton will make about 110 million in his age 35-38 seasons.  That is a lot of bad money in all liklihood.

[MU82]

That may be true, but the fact is, there are zero teams that were willing to take that chance.  And while his contract may look reasonable in a couple years, Stanton is no where near the caliber of player of Harper.  Stanton is a power bat.  That is all.  Harper is in a different category.  Even with his injury this season, he has a chance to win his 2nd MVP at age 24.  Stanton's contract should look like a bargain by comparison. 
Stanton will make about 110 million in his age 35-38 seasons.  That is a lot of bad money in all liklihood.

So will Stanton's contract "look like a bargain"? Or will it be "bad money"? Seems to be a bit of a contradiction there.

[buckchuckler]

It could look like a bargain after Harper, Machado and Arenado sign.  For a couple years (20-22).  Then when Stanton gets old and his skills diminish, and he gets older, becomes even more of an injury risk, it is bad money.  It is such a long contract it could very well go in stages.

**though upon looking at his contract, he will be making at least 29 mil from 2021-2026.  Even compared to Harper that likely won't be seen as a bargain.   

[Lennys Tap]

It could look like a bargain after Harper, Machado and Arenado sign.  For a couple years (20-22).  Then when Stanton gets old and his skills diminish, and he gets older, becomes even more of an injury risk, it is bad money.  It is such a long contract it could very well go in stages.

**though upon looking at his contract, he will be making at least 29 mil from 2021-2026.  Even compared to Harper that likely won't be seen as a bargain.

Harper is projected to get 40M a year, Machado 35M, Arenado I'm not sure (Coors Field discount?) but it will be north of 30M.

Stanton WAR is 5.4 this year and 32.9 for his 7.5 year career. OPS is 1.023 this year, career is .912.

Harper WAR is 4.7 this year, 26.1 for his 6 year career. OPS is 1.034 this year, career is .905

Machado WAR is 3.1 this year, 27.5 for his 6 year career. OPS is .789 this year, career is .807.

Arenado WAR is 5.4 this year, 25.5 for his 5 year career. OPS is .954 this year, career is .889

In addition, Stanton hits in a much more difficult park than Machado or Arenado.

When I add all of this up I think he may prove to be a relative bargain.

[MUBurrow]

Stanton's current production should age fairly well, too, in comparison to those guys. At the rate he's going, Harper will have trouble walking in ten years, and Machado's slump seems to be at least partially him trying to figure out how he wants his game to look. Arenado is wonderful, and while his bat may have a bit of the Coors effect, is probably the player I'd want most on a long-term deal of those four. But Stanton's first and second best skills is mashin taters, and that doesn't typically go away until a guy gets closer to 35.

[MerrittsMustache]

Stanton's current production should age fairly well, too, in comparison to those guys. At the rate he's going, Harper will have trouble walking in ten years, and Machado's slump seems to be at least partially him trying to figure out how he wants his game to look. Arenado is wonderful, and while his bat may have a bit of the Coors effect, is probably the player I'd want most on a long-term deal of those four. But Stanton's first and second best skills is mashin taters, and that doesn't typically go away until a guy gets closer to 35.

David Ortiz hit 38 HR at age 40.

Dave Winfield hit 28 HR at age 39 and 26 at age 40.

Frank Thomas hit 39 HR at age 38.

Jim Thome hit 25 HR at age 39 in just 108 games.

Big guys who hit dingers can typically do it for a long time.

[MUBurrow]

David Ortiz hit 38 HR at age 40.

Dave Winfield hit 28 HR at age 39 and 26 at age 40.

Frank Thomas hit 39 HR at age 38.

Jim Thome hit 25 HR at age 39 in just 108 games.

Big guys who hit dingers can typically do it for a long time.

Yessir. Good examples, all. And its not like Stanton offers a ton of other tools that teams would be looking for. He's a fine fielder, I would guess (haven't looked at the stats, but see him rob a HR once a year or so) and his average is fine, but any team that looks to bring him on is doing it pretty much just for the power.

[buckchuckler]

David Ortiz hit 38 HR at age 40.

Dave Winfield hit 28 HR at age 39 and 26 at age 40.

Frank Thomas hit 39 HR at age 38.

Jim Thome hit 25 HR at age 39 in just 108 games.

Big guys who hit dingers can typically do it for a long time.

Adam Dunn hit 354 HRs with a .250/.381/.521 through age 30.  Beyond that he hit 108 with .202/.321/.407

Mark Teixeira hit 275 HRs with .286/.377/.536 through age 30.
After that he hit 134 HRs .234/.327/.455

Harmon Killebrew hit 336 HRs with .263/.371/.535 through age 30
After that he hit 237 with .247/.381/.478

Dave Kingman hit 252 HRs with .241/.305/.504 through 30.
After that he hit 190 HRs with .231/.298/.448

Prince Fielder hit 288 HRs with .285/.388/.522 through 30
After that he hit 31 HRs with .273/.348/.419

Juan Gonzalez hit 362 HRs with .294/.343/.566 through age 30
After that he hit 72 HRs with .302/.345/.540

Duke Snider hit 316 HRs with .303/.383/.560 before 30 and 91 with .275/.370/.482

Yeah, Thomas, Thome, Winfield, Papi and others mashed beyond age 35.  Most guys don't.  Most, even some guys that were elite power hitters, don't play up to, or much past 35, and their skills rapidly decline after 30.  Maybe power does age more gracefully than other skills.  But it is still a rare player that stays relevant, impact-ful and feared into his late 30's.

[MerrittsMustache]

Adam Dunn hit 354 HRs with a .250/.381/.521 through age 30.  Beyond that he hit 108 with .202/.321/.407

Mark Teixeira hit 275 HRs with .286/.377/.536 through age 30.
After that he hit 134 HRs .234/.327/.455

Harmon Killebrew hit 336 HRs with .263/.371/.535 through age 30
After that he hit 237 with .247/.381/.478

Dave Kingman hit 252 HRs with .241/.305/.504 through 30.
After that he hit 190 HRs with .231/.298/.448

Prince Fielder hit 288 HRs with .285/.388/.522 through 30
After that he hit 31 HRs with .273/.348/.419

Juan Gonzalez hit 362 HRs with .294/.343/.566 through age 30
After that he hit 72 HRs with .302/.345/.540

Duke Snider hit 316 HRs with .303/.383/.560 before 30 and 91 with .275/.370/.482

Yeah, Thomas, Thome, Winfield, Papi and others mashed beyond age 35.  Most guys don't.  Most, even some guys that were elite power hitters, don't play up to, or much past 35, and their skills rapidly decline after 30.  Maybe power does age more gracefully than other skills.  But it is still a rare player that stays relevant, impact-ful and feared into his late 30's.

Your post-30 numbers aren't all that meaningful without more detail.

Dunn's 108 HR came in only 4 seasons.

Teixeira hit 31 HR at age 35.

Killebrew averaged 34 HR/year from age 31-36. His dropoff came at age 37.

Kingman hit 35 HR in his final season at age 37.

Fielder only played 2 seasons after age 30 because of injuries.

Juan Gonzalez had back issues and only played 1 full season after age 30...and he hit 35 HR that year. He also hit 24 HR in just 82 games at age 33.

Snider's power numbers went down when the Dodgers moved to LA and right center field was nearly 450 feet from home plate, compared to ~300 down the RF line at Ebbets Field.