MLB 2017 Season

[wadesworld]

This Brewers team sure is fun to watch.

[MUBurrow]

I get how the fight came about, but suffice it to say that the Cubs don't have the worst outfield in baseball, but they also haven't gotten anywhere near the production a WS competitor needs from those spots.  The Cubs are built to have a very traditional lineup - best power hitters at the corners, scatter some 20 HR threats up the middle and in the OF and use the other non-power players in those spots as table setters and threats on the bases. Baez and Russell have a combined 3 WAR so far this year, so they haven't gotten what they expected there, and the OF has been bad. But the nice thing about being built the way the Cubs are is that they don't need to find lineup altering production from typically weak positions. Guys who hit in the neighborhood of .275 and can steal 25 bases can be found and developed in CF, RF, etc. Plus you throw a guy like Jarrod Dyson who is a career .260 hitter in the Cubs two hole and watch him hit .270 with even a modest bump for lineup position. Those guys can always be found - historic examples are Dyson, Angel Pagan, Rajai Davis, the ghost of Michael Bourn, etc. These guys are around and the Cubs can find them.

Again, as a Brewers fan, I'm more optimistic than I've been so far and am starting to believe a bit, but the Cubs are still in a fine spot. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go get someone like Cam Maybin, who should be reasonably cheap as a rental, and I think Quintana will have a very good second half. His SOs are down some, but he's not having as bad a year as his ERA & W/L suggest, and the move to the NL will also have an impact.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I'm so sad VBMG doesn't like me.  Sad face.  Very sad face. 

By the way, VBMG, your childhood hero says hello.

Sammy, whatever color he may be today, was not my childhood hero, sorry. 

I'm open to having an actual baseball conversation, if you're capable of that.  You seem to have a pretty good case of White Sox fan syndrome though.   

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Excellent first outing by Quintana yesterday and Hendricks should be back soon, which should provide a nice boost. 

The bats woke up as well.  Granted, it was against a bad Baltimore staff but mediocre pitching has shut down the Cubs a number of times earlier this season. 

Milwaukee has a tougher schedule the remainder of the season and the teams square off 10 more times. 

Not what I was expecting this season but it should be interesting. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Milwaukee has a tougher schedule the remainder of the season

Are you sure about that? I posted this a few weeks back:

Saw this on ESPN about the brewers.

Looking ahead, they have the third-easiest schedule in the second half.

Not sure what that's based on and its for the whole mlb or just the nl....but barring disaster in the next few weeks the Brewers shouldn't be sellers at the trade deadline.

Like I said before, I don't know if its true or not, but I don't think the Crew have that tough of a schedule. Do the Cubs have an even easier schedule?

[MerrittsMustache]

Are you sure about that? I posted this a few weeks back:

Not sure what that's based on and its for the whole mlb or just the nl....but barring disaster in the next few weeks the Brewers shouldn't be sellers at the trade deadline.

Like I said before, I don't know if its true or not, but I don't think the Crew have that tough of a schedule. Do the Cubs have an even easier schedule?

According to this site, the Brewers have the 18th easiest schedule remaining and the Cubs have the 24th easiest schedule.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/mlb/nationalsosrg.html#sflx

[MUBurrow]

fwiw, espn seems to think the Brewers have a much tougher sched than the Cubs in an Insider article from today -

Winners

Chicago Cubs: How big a deal is the 19-point schedule difference between the Cubs and the Brewers? That's 1.3 wins over the number of games remaining, almost as valuable to the reigning champs as the new addition to their rotation over the same portion of the schedule. You could argue that the schedule is like getting two Jose Quintanas for the rest of the season. While it reflects poorly on the team's performance that they're even in the position that it matters, with no games against the Dodgers and just three against the Nationals, the schedule is certainly in the Cubs' favor.

Losers

Milwaukee Brewers: Nothing like the schedule to sit there in the future and try to ruin a perfectly good underdog tale. But there's no escaping it -- the Brewers have the third-toughest schedule in the National League, second among realistic playoff contenders (I'd say sorry to the Padres' fans, but I think they're all cognizant of where the team is). The Brew Crew has 10 games left against the Dodgers and Nationals, compared to the Cubs' three, and they will have to compete without their competition's four-game set against the White Sox.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

fwiw, espn seems to think the Brewers have a much tougher sched than the Cubs in an Insider article from today -

Huh, so maybe the guy from the EPSN article I read misread 3rd toughest as 3rd easiest?

[buckchuckler]

Sammy, whatever color he may be today, was not my childhood hero, sorry. 

I'm open to having an actual baseball conversation, if you're capable of that.  You seem to have a pretty good case of White Sox fan syndrome though.   

Yeah.  It is so interesting can't find a cub fan now that ever liked Sammy.  Yet,  I seem to remember a great deal of worship for him.  Must be my memory.

And yeah.  Must be all me.  Sorry about that.  I have White Sox syndrome.

[#UnleashSean]

Yeah.  It is so interesting can't find a cub fan now that ever liked Sammy.  Yet,  I seem to remember a great deal of worship for him.  Must be my memory.

And yeah.  Must be all me.  Sorry about that.  I have White Sox syndrome.

everyone worshipped sammy in the early 2000's. Those who say they didn't lied.

[MU82]

everyone worshipped sammy in the early 2000's. Those who say they didn't lied.

I knew many, many, many Cubbie fans who didn't like Sammy even while he was hitting 60 HRs for them. Believe it or not there were plenty of Cubbie fans who actually thought Grace was a better and more valuable player. I hate to make it a racial thing ... but pretty much every Cubbie fan who thought that way was white.

Overall, even though "everyone worshipped" is inaccurate, I would agree that most Cubbie fans loved Sammy - or at least his production - back then.

[GGGG]

I knew many, many, many Cubbie fans who didn't like Sammy even while he was hitting 60 HRs for them. Believe it or not there were plenty of Cubbie fans who actually thought Grace was a better and more valuable player. I hate to make it a racial thing ... but pretty much every Cubbie fan who thought that way was white.

Are there non-white Cubbie fans?

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Yeah.  It is so interesting can't find a cub fan now that ever liked Sammy.  Yet,  I seem to remember a great deal of worship for him.  Must be my memory.

And yeah.  Must be all me.  Sorry about that.  I have White Sox syndrome.

Of course I rooted for Sosa when he was on the team but he was never my favorite player or an idol of mine.  Wasn't really my style.

As for baseball discussion, I logically laid out why the Cubs front office may not consider trading Schwarber for Gray to be an obvious decision.

You responded with "Kyle SchwAAArber" and that you hoped the Cubs continued to lose.  Yep, great response on your part.  That was all me. 

 

[MU82]

I thought the Baltimore series was a big one for the Cubs. If they had come out and gone 0-3, their season would have been effectively over. They blew an 8-0 lead in the first game but showed some moxie in winning anyway, and then they just steamrolled the O's - capped by the dominant performance of the pitcher they just acquired, which is always a feel-good situation.

The Brewers lost Sunday, too, so now things are a lot more interesting. As a fan of neither team, I always root for "interesting"!

[Pakuni]

Are there non-white Cubbie fans?

[Lennys Tap]

That dentist did a great job on Ronnie.

[buckchuckler]

Of course I rooted for Sosa when he was on the team but he was never my favorite player or an idol of mine.  Wasn't really my style.

As for baseball discussion, I logically laid out why the Cubs front office may not consider trading Schwarber for Gray to be an obvious decision.

You responded with "Kyle SchwAAArber" and that you hoped the Cubs continued to lose.  Yep, great response on your part.  That was all me. 

 

Your logical argument started  by telling everyone they were over valuing Gray.   Couldn't have been you making the valuing error, not that it matters, but nice job matter of factly telling everyone else they were wrong. 

Yeah, the Schwarber one was good.  Chuckled to myself.  True too, that's the best part.  As for rooting against the cubs,  yeah.  Duh. You should have known that already.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Your logical argument started  by telling everyone they were over valuing Gray.   Couldn't have been you making the valuing error, not that it matters, but nice job matter of factly telling everyone else they were wrong. 

Yeah, the Schwarber of each was good.  Chuckled to myself.  True too, that's the best part.  As for rooting against the cubs,  yeah.  Duh. You should have known that already.

This is just more of the same from you. Another typical empty, snarky response devoid of any substance. 

I did share the opinion that I felt people overrated Gray.  And I shared why (lack of missing bats even when he was pitching well, recent injury history, horrendous 2016). He has been solid this season so I was a bit off the mark on that.  It's ok to disagree. People questioning how good Gray really is isn't new. And saying someone is overrated does not mean they don't have a lot of value - they're not mutually exclusive.

I then gave reasons why a trade of Schwarber for Gray might not make sense for the Cubs or why they wouldn't consider it (don't want to trade anyone of ML roster, 4+ years of control compared to 2+ years of control, power LH bat, the front office loves him and what be brings to the clubhouse, etc).  While some may disagree those are reasonable and realistic reasons for not making that move. Your response was to make fun of Schwarber being sent down this year, which is not uncommon for players of his age and experience level, and it is quite possible come back to have success.

Glad you can make yourself laugh at least because you're not funny. And like most Cubs fans, I don't care about or think about the White Sox.  You've always had the Sox fan inferiority complex. Hahn has done an excellent job with the rebuild thus far and it would be fun to see both teams having success at the same time. However, its fans like you that make me hope it's a massive failure.

[wadesworld]

I, for one, hope that the Cubs do not trade Schwarber for Sonny Gray.  Gray had a horrible 2016.  Other than that, he has been pretty dang good, including this year, and especially in his last 4 starts when he has been lights out.  I've seen some people (both on Scoop and elsewhere) talking like 2016 is the norm for Gray and this year's bounce back is him playing above his level.  The guy was 3rd in the AL Cy Young award voting in 2015 and in 2014 and 2015 (first 2 years as a full time MLB starter) he threw 219 and 208 innings, respectively, and had a 3.08 and 2.73 ERA, respectively.  I think Gray is a really solid starter, and I think Schwarber is a horrendous defensive player that can do one of two things offensively: swing and miss or swing and hit the ball really far on occasion.

In fact, despite saying I hope the Brewers "sell," with 2 more years of cheap control I'd actually love to have the Brewers go after him with some of their prospects that have young talent in front of them at the MLB level.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I, for one, hope that the Cubs do not trade Schwarber for Sonny Gray.  Gray had a horrible 2016.  Other than that, he has been pretty dang good, including this year, and especially in his last 4 starts when he has been lights out.  I've seen some people (both on Scoop and elsewhere) talking like 2016 is the norm for Gray and this year's bounce back is him playing above his level.  The guy was 3rd in the AL Cy Young award voting in 2015 and in 2014 and 2015 (first 2 years as a full time MLB starter) he threw 219 and 208 innings, respectively, and had a 3.08 and 2.73 ERA, respectively.  I think Gray is a really solid starter, and I think Schwarber is a horrendous defensive player that can do one of two things offensively: swing and miss or swing and hit the ball really far on occasion.

In fact, despite saying I hope the Brewers "sell," with 2 more years of cheap control I'd actually love to have the Brewers go after him with some of their prospects that have young talent in front of them at the MLB level.

And I understand this point of view and I could certainly be underselling Gray. 

But I find it amusing that people "know for sure" that Schwarber is only going to be a guy who Ks and lucks into HRs when he makes contact, considering he is only 24 years old and with 568 career plate appearances.  And he had a 130+ OPS as a rookie, had success in the playoffs in 2015 and the World Series in 2016, and has a career OPS of 1.051 through 665 minor league plate appearances. 

Maybe he is a 4A player or maybe he's just going through an adjustment period as a lot of young hitters do.  It's also possible he becomes a 30 HR/900 OPS guy.   

And as for his defense, if you look at OFs on Baseball Reference using total zone fielding runs above average and defensive runs saved above average, he is not as horrendous as most assume (although he's not good either). 

In June, his OPS was .849 and so far in July it is .887.  Small sample size for sure but those are nice numbers.

[MerrittsMustache]

And I understand this point of view and I could certainly be underselling Gray. 

But I find it amusing that people "know for sure" that Schwarber is only going to be a guy who Ks and lucks into HRs when he makes contact, considering he is only 24 years old and with 568 career plate appearances.  And he had a 130+ OPS as a rookie, had success in the playoffs in 2015 and the World Series in 2016, and has a career OPS of 1.051 through 665 minor league plate appearances. 

Maybe he is a 4A player or maybe he's just going through an adjustment period as a lot of young hitters do.  It's also possible he becomes a 30 HR/900 OPS guy.   

And as for his defense, if you look at OFs on Baseball Reference using total zone fielding runs above average and defensive runs saved above average, he is not as horrendous as most assume (although he's not good either). 

In June, his OPS was .849 and so far in July it is .887.  Small sample size for sure but those are nice numbers.

Schwarber's career has been the perfect storm of creating unrealistic expectations.

In his first 27 games, he hit .352/.436/.625 with 6 HR. He had arrived!

Over his final 42 games of 2015, he hit .181/.308/.403 but this tends to get lost in the shuffle because his average slowly dropped but still looked pretty good for most of the season. His overall 2015 numbers look very solid, especially for a rookie -- .246/.355/.487 with 16 HR in 69 games.

He then hit .538 in the 2015 Wild Card Game and NLDS, with a HR and 3 RBI in the WCG and the moonshot that landed on top of the RF scoreboard against StL. Suddenly he was a star despite struggling for a majority of his time in the majors. He went 2-14 in the NLCS but had 2 HR and just about everyone else struggled as well so it didn't really stand out.

Next up, he missed basically the whole 2016 season which kept his reputation as a star in tact and this reputation was furthered by him coming back from serious injury to hit .412 (including 3 hits in Game 7) in the franchise's first World Series win in 108 years. All of a sudden he's a baseball god!

He enters this season with expectations that he'll become an All-Star/40 homer guy in his first full season in the bigs. Not to mention, he's the new lead-off man for the World Series favorites. His hot start and clutch performances turned him into a player that he's not. He's more Adam Dunn than table-setter.

Has he been a disappointment this season? Absolutely. It's surprising that he's struggled to this extent, but if you think about it, it shouldn't be all that surprising that he hasn't been the player many believed he would be at this point.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Schwarber's career has been the perfect storm of creating unrealistic expectations.

In his first 27 games, he hit .352/.436/.625 with 6 HR. He had arrived!

Over his final 42 games of 2015, he hit .181/.308/.403 but this tends to get lost in the shuffle because his average slowly dropped but still looked pretty good for most of the season. His overall 2015 numbers look very solid, especially for a rookie -- .246/.355/.487 with 16 HR in 69 games.

He then hit .538 in the 2015 Wild Card Game and NLDS, with a HR and 3 RBI in the WCG and the moonshot that landed on top of the RF scoreboard against StL. Suddenly he was a star despite struggling for a majority of his time in the majors. He went 2-14 in the NLCS but had 2 HR and just about everyone else struggled as well so it didn't really stand out.

Next up, he missed basically the whole 2016 season which kept his reputation as a star in tact and this reputation was furthered by him coming back from serious injury to hit .412 (including 3 hits in Game 7) in the franchise's first World Series win in 108 years. All of a sudden he's a baseball god!

He enters this season with expectations that he'll become an All-Star/40 homer guy in his first full season in the bigs. Not to mention, he's the new lead-off man for the World Series favorites. His hot start and clutch performances turned him into a player that he's not. He's more Adam Dunn than table-setter.

Has he been a disappointment this season? Absolutely. It's surprising that he's struggled to this extent, but if you think about it, it shouldn't be all that surprising that he hasn't been the player many believed he would be at this point.

I agree with this.  The expectations were unrealistic.  It's also comical to me that some people think he's a finished product and have written him off so early in his career. 

[CTWarrior]

But I find it amusing that people "know for sure" that Schwarber is only going to be a guy who Ks and lucks into HRs when he makes contact, considering he is only 24 years old and with 568 career plate appearances.  And he had a 130+ OPS as a rookie, had success in the playoffs in 2015 and the World Series in 2016, and has a career OPS of 1.051 through 665 minor league plate appearances. 

All you have to do is look at Aaron Judge.  Last year he got 95 plate appearances as a 24 year old and was beyond terrible (struck out in half his ABs and hit .179).  Guys at that age change their career trajectory often (in both directions).  No guarantee Schwarber will ever be a star, but it is not crazy to think a guy with his power will turn it around.

[MU82]

But I find it amusing that people "know for sure" that Schwarber is only going to be a guy who Ks and lucks into HRs when he makes contact, considering he is only 24 years old and with 568 career plate appearances.  And he had a 130+ OPS as a rookie, had success in the playoffs in 2015 and the World Series in 2016, and has a career OPS of 1.051 through 665 minor league plate appearances. 

And as for his defense, if you look at OFs on Baseball Reference using total zone fielding runs above average and defensive runs saved above average, he is not as horrendous as most assume (although he's not good either). 

I don't know anything "for sure," but I'm fairly certain that Schwarber is a DH.

I don't care what advanced stats say. All one has to do is watch him play outfield for a week (or less) and one can see he is a defensive liability.

He might end up being a great offensive player. Probably not, because really few are legitimately "great," but maybe. If I were the Cubs, I wouldn't be itchin' to trade him. But if I really thought I could make my team better, I wouldn't have qualms about trading him.

He hits home runs, he walks, he strikes out a lot, and he can't play a position. He is not some rare jewel.

[buckchuckler]

That's right - younger players with less than 600 career plate appearances never struggle or come back to be successful after being demoted to the minors.

And how on earth will the Cubs ever find a quality pitcher to fill out the rotation if they don't acquire Gray?!?!

So, I clearly offended you with my response to this statement.  You know why I gave you a snarky response?  Because I never said, or even implied any of those things.  I pointed out that power is meaningless if you can't make enough contact.  That is all.  Never said Schwarber was done.  Certainly didn't say that I "know for sure" he was done.  That was you making assumptions about things I never said. 

Also never said they couldn't find another pitcher of Gray's quality.  Not sure where you got that at all. 

When I brushed off your response, you told me I was too stupid to insult.  Nice.  Why should I respect you again?

I went with Sammy, you told me I couldn't have a baseball conversation, after blatantly insulting me with 2 consecutive posts (at least the ones from our conversation), oh yeah, then you insulted me again. 

I don't have an inferiority complex at all.  More than comfortable in my Sox fan skin.  What I have a problem with is the cub fan superiority complex, which you have demonstrated to perfection. 

I have no problem with the Cubs, they actually seem like a decent bunch of guys, especially Rizzo, but others as well.  It is the cub fans, many like you, that make me really despise the team and hope they lose.