MLB 2017 Season

[MerrittsMustache]

They are lucky the NL Central is pretty bad.  If they were in another division they could already be out of it. 

"The Babe" is looking more like 2011 Adam Dunn.

88 games will win the Central. The Cubs need to go 63-47 from here out. Very doable for a team this talented.

Schwarber was outstanding for his first 30ish games when he initially got called up, but from August 14, 2015 to the present, his regular season batting average is .168 (52-309) with 108 K's. The Cubs have options in LF with Happ, Jay and Zobrist.  It's time to send Schwarber to Iowa for a stretch or drop him way down in the order.

[buckchuckler]

So he is more like the baaabe?

[jsglow]

I fully expect the Cubs to right the ship somewhat and win the division.  But you guys have to admit that Stearns has put a nice little ball club on the field in Milwaukee with his $60MM payroll.  I love the flexibility he has with position players.  He has the makings of a nice starting rotation.  And while the bullpen could continue to use some help, he has some pieces to build with.

Look, I'm a long way from predicting it but if this team is in the hunt at the All Star break, I sure hope he doesn't go into 'sell mode'.  Stearns might not have all the elements in place just yet, but one must admit that the deals he's done to date mostly look tremendous.  Perhaps the young core is already there (or nearly ready in Colorado Springs) to make a playoff run in a year or so.  I think we'd all admit that would be way ahead of schedule.

[wadesworld]

I fully expect the Cubs to right the ship somewhat and win the division.  But you guys have to admit that Stearns has put a nice little ball club on the field in Milwaukee with his $60MM payroll.  I love the flexibility he has with position players.  He has the makings of a nice starting rotation.  And while the bullpen could continue to use some help, he has some pieces to build with.

Look, I'm a long way from predicting it but if this team is in the hunt at the All Star break, I sure hope he doesn't go into 'sell mode'.  Stearns might not have all the elements in place just yet, but one must admit that the deals he's done to date mostly look tremendous.  Perhaps the young core is already there (or nearly ready in Colorado Springs) to make a playoff run in a year or so.  I think we'd all admit that would be way ahead of schedule.

Huh?

[jsglow]

Huh?

Yeah, Anderson, Davies, and Nelson all suck.   

I'll admit that Garza and Guerra probably aren't long term answers although they might get 3 good years from the latter.  But that's what the top rated AAA class is all about.

[wadesworld]

Yeah, Anderson, Davies, and Nelson all suck.   

I'll admit that Garza and Guerra probably aren't long term answers although they might get 3 good years from the latter.  But that's what the top rated AAA class is all about.

Zach Davies is pretty much horrendous.  Nelson has taken a step forward through the first 10 starts this year, but for a guy who was untouchable when the Brewers were buyers a few years ago he's certainly not what the Brewers hoped for.  Chase has been good this year.  But Jimmie and Chase are 28 and 29 years old, respectively.  I know we've started out well, but I'd be shocked if the Brewers won more than 78 games this year and were in the Playoffs within the next 3 years.  I highly doubt they are in the rotation when the Brewers make the Playoffs next.

[jsglow]

Your too depressed wades.  The Crew has made the playoffs, what 4 or 5 times in history?  Enjoy it.

[Jockey]

88 games will win the Central. The Cubs need to go 63-47 from here out. Very doable for a team this talented.

Schwarber was outstanding for his first 30ish games when he initially got called up, but from August 14, 2015 to the present, his regular season batting average is .168 (52-309) with 108 K's. The Cubs have options in LF with Happ, Jay and Zobrist.  It's time to send Schwarber to Iowa for a stretch or drop him way down in the order.

It may be doable - but it will not be easy for a team that may have the worst #2 through #5 starters in the league and one of the 2 or 3 worst outfields. Not to even mention that robust .235 BA. One regular hitting over .260.

Bryant and Rizzo can take this team a long way, but there are huge, huge holes here.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

It may be doable - but it will not be easy for a team that may have the worst #2 through #5 starters in the league and one of the 2 or 3 worst outfields. Not to even mention that robust .235 BA. One regular hitting over .260.

Bryant and Rizzo can take this team a long way, but there are huge, huge holes here.

Worst 2 - 5 starters in the league by the end of the season?  No.

[MerrittsMustache]

It may be doable - but it will not be easy for a team that may have the worst #2 through #5 starters in the league and one of the 2 or 3 worst outfields. Not to even mention that robust .235 BA. One regular hitting over .260.

Bryant and Rizzo can take this team a long way, but there are huge, huge holes here.

The Cubs' starters' ERA is 21st in MLB. Certainly not good, but far from being the worst, even without Lester. According to FanGraphs, the Cubs' outfield D ranks are about average to slightly below average. Again, not good but not the doom and gloom that you're wanting to see.

Also, the Cubs are 2nd in the NL in men left on base and the team OPB is middle of the pack, despite the poor batting average. The team is hitting .209 with RISP. That's not going to last all season.

Today is the start of a 10-game, warm weather homestand. If the Cubs can't get it going during this stretch, it could be time to start worrying.

[MUBurrow]

The Cubs' starters' ERA is 21st in MLB. Certainly not good, but far from being the worst, even without Lester. According to FanGraphs, the Cubs' outfield D ranks are about average to slightly below average. Again, not good but not the doom and gloom that you're wanting to see.

Also, the Cubs are 2nd in the NL in men left on base and the team OPB is middle of the pack, despite the poor batting average. The team is hitting .209 with RISP. That's not going to last all season.

Today is the start of a 10-game, warm weather homestand. If the Cubs can't get it going during this stretch, it could be time to start worrying.

This. I'm really not sure what the alarmism is about. The most talented team in baseball is 3 games back in one of the worst divisions on June 2. The team in first place is almost certain to fade and not make the playoffs, and their biggest competition has a run differential of exactly 0. Rizzo's OPS is down more than 100 pts from last year. Russell's is down 90. If Schwarber keeps playing this poorly, swapping him out from the top of the lineup for a lower-upside, more traditional leadoff man would tick the offensive stats up by itself. Even if the pitching overachieved some last year, its not this bad, and the Cubs can and almost certainly will add pitching, either an additional starter or strong bullpen help, at the deadline. The need to fill air time will still have sportstalk screaming "ZOMG the Cubs are worse than last year" in August, simply because Cubs talk sells - but they won 107 games last year. The NL Central will be boring by September.

[jsglow]

I seem to remember a period in June or July last year where the Cubs were struggling.  Way to early to worry.  But it is true that if they fail to right the ship, this will have to be acknowledged as a pretty big collapse for a team built to win consistently.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

This. I'm really not sure what the alarmism is about. The most talented team in baseball is 3 games back in one of the worst divisions on June 2. The team in first place is almost certain to fade and not make the playoffs, and their biggest competition has a run differential of exactly 0. Rizzo's OPS is down more than 100 pts from last year. Russell's is down 90. If Schwarber keeps playing this poorly, swapping him out from the top of the lineup for a lower-upside, more traditional leadoff man would tick the offensive stats up by itself. Even if the pitching overachieved some last year, its not this bad, and the Cubs can and almost certainly will add pitching, either an additional starter or strong bullpen help, at the deadline. The need to fill air time will still have sportstalk screaming "ZOMG the Cubs are worse than last year" in August, simply because Cubs talk sells - but they won 107 games last year. The NL Central will be boring by September.

I hope you're right.  I still think they win the division and I don't think the sky is falling.  However, there are some legit concerns at this point - it's no longer a small sample size. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I seem to remember a period in June or July last year where the Cubs were struggling.  Way to early to worry.  But it is true that if they fail to right the ship, this will have to be acknowledged as a pretty big collapse for a team built to win consistently.

Yeah, they had a 5-15 stretch right before the All Star break. 

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I wonder if winning the World Series caused many Cubs to lose their edge and focus.  Bryant is the only bat that seems to be performing as expected and the pitching has slipped significantly.

After breaking the 108 year drought, the mental sharpness may have been lost with a relaxed complacency replacing it.  Would this theory make sense Cub fans?

[MerrittsMustache]

Yeah, they had a 5-15 stretch right before the All Star break.

Yep. And from June 20-July 26, the Cubs went 12-20...and then went 44-18 for the remainder of the season.

[Jockey]

The Cubs' starters' ERA is 21st in MLB. Certainly not good, but far from being the worst, even without Lester. According to FanGraphs, the Cubs' outfield D ranks are about average to slightly below average. Again, not good but not the doom and gloom that you're wanting to see.

Also, the Cubs are 2nd in the NL in men left on base and the team OPB is middle of the pack, despite the poor batting average. The team is hitting .209 with RISP. That's not going to last all season.

Today is the start of a 10-game, warm weather homestand. If the Cubs can't get it going during this stretch, it could be time to start worrying.

I agree with some of what you say, and if betting, I would bet on the Cubs to win the division. I think St. Louis has almost as good a chance to win the division, though. But....

1. You made my argument about the OF. If the best thing about it is that they rank slightly below average defensively, they truly are the worst OF in all of baseball, When John Jay is the best hitting OF on the team.... well, that says it all.

2. The starters. Lester is very good, Hendricks is good (for some reason, Joe does not trust him though), Arrieta & Lackey are below average and the 5th spot may be the worst in all of baseball.

[MerrittsMustache]

I wonder if winning the World Series caused many Cubs to lose their edge and focus.  Bryant is the only bat that seems to be performing as expected and the pitching has slipped significantly.

After breaking the 108 year drought, the mental sharpness may have been lost with a relaxed complacency replacing it.  Would this theory make sense Cub fans?

Honestly, I think that deep postseason runs in back-to-back seasons can take a toll on baseball players, especially with the current extended postseason. No MLB team has won consecutive WS since the Yankees won 3 straight from 1998-2000. 5 of the last 6 WS winners have missed the playoffs the following season, including the last 4. Half of those teams finished .500 or worse. Baseball is a long, taxing season and adding an extra 2-4 weeks to the season makes it even more so.

[Warrior Code]

Honestly, I think that deep postseason runs in back-to-back seasons can take a toll on baseball players, especially with the current extended postseason. No MLB team has won consecutive WS since the Yankees won 3 straight from 1998-2000. 5 of the last 6 WS winners have missed the playoffs the following season, including the last 4. Half of those teams finished .500 or worse. Baseball is a long, taxing season and adding an extra 2-4 weeks to the season makes it even more so.

Plus months of celebrating.

[MerrittsMustache]

I agree with some of what you say, and if betting, I would bet on the Cubs to win the division. I think St. Louis has almost as good a chance to win the division, though. But....

1. You made my argument about the OF. If the best thing about it is that they rank slightly below average defensively, they truly are the worst OF in all of baseball, When John Jay is the best hitting OF on the team.... well, that says it all.

2. The starters. Lester is very good, Hendricks is good (for some reason, Joe does not trust him though), Arrieta & Lackey are below average and the 5th spot may be the worst in all of baseball.

When you said "worst OF," I thought you meant defensively. Offensively, they're also below average as a unit, but Schwarber's massive struggles are the main reason behind that. Overall, FanGraphs' numbers rank the Cubs OF 25th offensively an 11th defensively, though the numbers aren't great. The OF's overall WAR puts them 22nd. To say that "they truly are the worst" is just wrong.

Arrieta got lit up by Colorado in mid-May but he's had a 3.38 ERA in his 4 starts since then. He'll be OK. Lackey has been bad. No arguing that. Although, you might want to look at the rotations for teams like the Phillies, Reds and Tigers before making proclamations about Cubs' starting pitchers being "the worst."

[Jockey]

Arrieta got lit up by Colorado in mid-May but he's had a 3.38 ERA in his 4 starts since then. He'll be OK. Lackey has been bad. No arguing that. Although, you might want to look at the rotations for teams like the Phillies, Reds and Tigers before making proclamations about Cubs' starting pitchers being "the worst."

Those 3 teams have been racked by injuries though.

[MerrittsMustache]

Those 3 teams have been racked by injuries though.

Those were just examples and you're changing your argument. Brett Anderson is hurt for the Cubs. Does that mean he no longer counts as being bad? Also, Detroit hasn't had a pitcher go on the DL all season.

[DegenerateDish]

If I'm a Cubs fan, I'm not worried, but I'm probably at least paying attention. All you have to do is get into the tournament, and then hope you're hot at that time of year. They have a much easier path than most teams, and they are obviously talented to say the least.

Schwarber though is a different story, that's something that needs to be addressed. Unfair or not, he'll always be scrutinized more, because his trade value was highest when he was on the DL all of last year. The Cubs won a world title with him, and he was an important part of that WS run. Long term, some fans will link him with the career Torres has, right or wrong. I'd send him down to Iowa, let him DH for a week or two and figure things out.

[MerrittsMustache]

If I'm a Cubs fan, I'm not worried, but I'm probably at least paying attention. All you have to do is get into the tournament, and then hope you're hot at that time of year. They have a much easier path than most teams, and they are obviously talented to say the least.

Schwarber though is a different story, that's something that needs to be addressed. Unfair or not, he'll always be scrutinized more, because his trade value was highest when he was on the DL all of last year. The Cubs won a world title with him, and he was an important part of that WS run. Long term, some fans will link him with the career Torres has, right or wrong. I'd send him down to Iowa, let him DH for a week or two and figure things out.

Schwarber worked his tail off to get back and then hit .412 in a World Series that ended the team's 108-year drought. He's going to get a loooooong leash from fans. No matter what he does from here on out, I can't imagine there being many comparisons between him and Torres. The Cubs don't win the WS without Schwarber (or Chapman). They won it without Torres.

[DegenerateDish]

Schwarber worked his tail off to get back and then hit .412 in a World Series that ended the team's 108-year drought. He's going to get a loooooong leash from fans. No matter what he does from here on out, I can't imagine there being many comparisons between him and Torres. The Cubs don't win the WS without Schwarber (or Chapman). They won it without Torres.

Right, then won a WS with Schwarber, we don't know the long term value yet of Schwarber or Torres though, history will write that story. No one is arguing trading that WS title, but if you could have traded Schwarber for Chapman, and kept Torres, would that put the Cubs in contention for more WS titles...that's the question.

On the open market, the value between a powerhitting/high strikeout rate LF (who can't field) and should be a DH versus an athletic five tool SS, is not comparable. The Cubs would absolutely trade Schwarber for Torres, the Yankees would tell the Cubs to eff off.