MLB 2017 Season

[WI inferiority Complexes]

I've always liked the Yankees; Don Mattingly was my favorite player as a kid, and I wore a Yankees hat literally every day in high school.  Also, the Yanks failed to make the playoffs between the time I was 4 years-old and my frosh year at Marquette, so it's not like I followed them because they were "always winning."

Game 7 of the '01 WS reminded me of the cruelty of baseball.  I can't stand Luis Gonzalez, (there's no way he wasn't on juice), and he gets a bloop hit to win it all after two of the most remarkable comebacks at Yankee Stadium (Brosius and 'Mr. Novemeber.')  Fantastic World Series; I just didn't like the way it ended.

[buckchuckler]

You sure about that? 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI200110270.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI200111030.shtml

Haha, well the memorable ones anyways...

[Vander Blue Man Group]

What do you think VBMG?  Best play in the history of the WS?

Best play in the history of any sport at any time. 

[MerrittsMustache]

Best play in the history of any sport at any time.

That's a stretch. I mean, I made a pretty spectacular game-winning catch in an intramural football game while at MU, circa 2000.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

That's a stretch. I mean, I made a pretty spectacular game-winning catch in an intramural football game while at MU, circa 2000.

Fair but I'm not sure that can compete with my diving catch for a touchdown in a crucial ultimate frisbee game my freshman year. 

[DegenerateDish]

I wouldn't hold your breath on Machado.

Why is that? The Sox and Phillies are the two teams that can front load more money against the tax than anyone else. The Yankees are working to get there, they can't sign both Harper and Machado. Under the new CBA, the Sox will have an incredible number against the tax to work with. Dodgers would be in play if Kershaw opts out, but then another team will absorb his salary.

They clearly have as good a chance as anyone.

[buckchuckler]

Best play in the history of any sport at any time.

[Jockey]

I'm not even going to get my hopes up on Machado,  but that would be something...

99% chance he goes to Boston, NYY, or Dodgers. Same with Harper.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Why is that? The Sox and Phillies are the two teams that can front load more money against the tax than anyone else. The Yankees are working to get there, they can't sign both Harper and Machado. Under the new CBA, the Sox will have an incredible number against the tax to work with. Dodgers would be in play if Kershaw opts out, but then another team will absorb his salary.

They clearly have as good a chance as anyone.

Do the White Sox want one player to take up such a large portion of their payroll?  They've shown no indication in the past that they're willing to put together the type of exorbitant offer it will take. 

And while their rebuild is off to a solid start, at least in terms of some of the prospects they've acquired, it may take a leap of faith from Machado to believe they will be fielding a winning team in the near future.  So how much more would they then have to pay than some other teams that may have more attractive situations?

Anything is possible and I obviously might be wrong but I just don't see it as likely. 

[DegenerateDish]

Do the White Sox want one player to take up such a large portion of their payroll?  They've shown no indication in the past that they're willing to put together the type of exorbitant offer it will take. 

And while their rebuild is off to a solid start, at least in terms of some of the prospects they've acquired, it may take a leap of faith from Machado to believe they will be fielding a winning team in the near future.  So how much more would they then have to pay than some other teams that may have more attractive situations?

Anything is possible and I obviously might be wrong but I just don't see it as likely.

Having befriended some people in the Sox front office, I can say that I'm led strongly to believe they are all in on Machado. Whether he signs elsewhere is of course up to him, but with $2.65 million committed to 2019 (without arb guys/rookies), they believe they can heavily front load a deal and stay out of tax hell.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I've always liked the Yankees; Don Mattingly was my favorite player as a kid, and I wore a Yankees hat literally every day in high school.  Also, the Yanks failed to make the playoffs between the time I was 4 years-old and my frosh year at Marquette, so it's not like I followed them because they were "always winning."

Game 7 of the '01 WS reminded me of the cruelty of baseball.  I can't stand Luis Gonzalez, (there's no way he wasn't on juice), and he gets a bloop hit to win it all after two of the most remarkable comebacks at Yankee Stadium (Brosius and 'Mr. Novemeber.')  Fantastic World Series; I just didn't like the way it ended.

The one year America was actually rooting for the Yankees to win and that stupid Curt Schilling too.  That '01 loss hurt. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Having befriended some people in the Sox front office, I can say that I'm led strongly to believe they are all in on Machado. Whether he signs elsewhere is of course up to him, but with $2.65 million committed to 2019 (without arb guys/rookies), they believe they can heavily front load a deal and stay out of tax hell.

Is front-loading really even an incentive for the player though?  I know this is discussed in theory a lot but doesn't seem to be very common. 

[Jockey]

Is front-loading really even an incentive for the player though?  I know this is discussed in theory a lot but doesn't seem to be very common.

Shouldn't be real important since contracts are fully guaranteed.

It's a very big deal in the NFL, though.

[DegenerateDish]

Shouldn't be real important since contracts are fully guaranteed.

It's a very big deal in the NFL, though.

People have to understand the new CBA to realize teams are going to work against the tax like it's a cap. If you're the Cubs as an example, you'd be way better front loading a Machado (or whoever) contract in 2019 if you had Bryant/Schwarber/Russell non arbitration years coming up in '20, '21. No one is going to pay the tax, penalty is stiff. So while it doesn't matter from a guarantee standpoint, it'll you give Machado 5 years, $200 mil, and give him $50 upfront, no player will turndown a front loaded deal.

[Jockey]

People have to understand the new CBA to realize teams are going to work against the tax like it's a cap. If you're the Cubs as an example, you'd be way better front loading a Machado (or whoever) contract in 2019 if you had Bryant/Schwarber/Russell non arbitration years coming up in '20, '21. No one is going to pay the tax, penalty is stiff. So while it doesn't matter from a guarantee standpoint, it'll you give Machado 5 years, $200 mil, and give him $50 upfront, no player will turndown a front loaded deal.

I agree and disagree.

It certainly helps certain clubs who put themselves in position to front-load.

But if there is a $200 mil contract offered - guaranteed for the entire $200 mil - I don't think most players are gonna care if the big payday comes upfront or if it is spread thoughout the contract. It is the total amount that they care about.

(And yes, I realize the investment benefits of getting a larger sum up front.)

[buckchuckler]

By the way, anyone see Utley score from first on a dropped third strike?  Gotta be one of the best plays in history.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

By the way, anyone see Utley score from first on a dropped third strike?  Gotta be one of the best plays in history.

If Contreras could've made the throw to first, that would have been the greatest play in history.

(Very early) surprises have to be the Reds' offense (they have a 3B with nearly a 1.3 OPS), Arizona winning 6 of 7 at home, and how terrible the Blue Jays have looked.  The White Sox also had a very strong rotation, (the only real flub was probably Quintana on Opening Day), and the second-best bullpen ERA in the AL.

[Lennys Tap]

The cubs are on pace to win 108 games. We're talking crap about his managing.

Cubs now on pace to finish 81-81 and miss the playoffs.

[MerrittsMustache]

Cubs now on pace to finish 81-81 and miss the playoffs.

I dunno...that may still win the division, especially with St. Louis on pace to win 41 games.

[wadesworld]

I dunno...that may still win the division, especially with St. Louis on pace to win 41 games.

Brewers on pace to win 87 though, let's gooooooooo! In the words of BeeJay, Brewers the CONSENSUS to represent the NL Central in the Playoffs and win the WS!

[MUBurrow]

So far, so good on the Thames deal. Of course there's a bunch of initial inflation built into .368 & 6HRs through 13 games, so he'll return to the mean. But its looking good for him to be a useful major league player. Most projections had him at about .260 w/ 26 bombs, which, compared with his early returns and the contract ($15M through 2019 w/ a $7.5M team option for 2020) should produce good value/trade value for the Brewers. Still probably no way that the 2020 option would factor into a trade/get exercised, but it can't hurt to have it out there.

[MU82]

Do the White Sox want one player to take up such a large portion of their payroll?  They've shown no indication in the past that they're willing to put together the type of exorbitant offer it will take. 

And while their rebuild is off to a solid start, at least in terms of some of the prospects they've acquired, it may take a leap of faith from Machado to believe they will be fielding a winning team in the near future.  So how much more would they then have to pay than some other teams that may have more attractive situations?

Anything is possible and I obviously might be wrong but I just don't see it as likely.

Reinsdorf claimed he was willing to spend big to get A-Rod but they came up a little short. I have my doubts about how close they actually got. I mean, Reinsdorf only reluctantly paid Jordan market value!

[Pakuni]

Do the White Sox want one player to take up such a large portion of their payroll?  They've shown no indication in the past that they're willing to put together the type of exorbitant offer it will take. 

The White Sox made Albert Belle the highest-paid player in baseball when they signed him to a free-agent deal. So, yeah, there's a history of them being willing to put together exorbitant offers when they want to.

That said, I don't think the Sox would deviate so greatly from their rebuilding plan after just one year to sign Machado. I think they'll continue to go young and build from within for at least a couple more years and then, if/when they have a contender, they'll spend on free agents.
Looking way ahead, the potential 2020 free agent pool includes Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve, Madison Bumgarner, Michael Wacha, Gerrit Cole, Xander Boegarts, Rick Porcello, and Chris Sale (OK, maybe he's not a likely option).

[buckchuckler]

Reinsdorf claimed he was willing to spend big to get A-Rod but they came up a little short. I have my doubts about how close they actually got. I mean, Reinsdorf only reluctantly paid Jordan market value!

The legends about Reinsdorf being cheap are completely false. 

[buckchuckler]

Such a topsy-turvey start to the season.  You could have gotten good odds on the Cards and Jays being the worst teams in their respective leagues to this point.