Crystallization: Wojo’s chance

[1SE]

I know, we need another new topic like a hole in the head but it’s the off-season and a slightly different question so what the hey...

After digesting the past few weeks this is where I’m at. The boys are gone. Period. We’ll never have the answers to all the ifs (the biggest being if a different coach could have managed the egos). We just won’t know.

What we do know is that it would have been very easy for that team to have underperformed to expectations (5 or 6 seed) and Wojo still would have kept his job. The Wojo MO to date.

I think the silver lining here is that this team crystallizes the challenge for Wojo. It’s unrealistic and unfair to think our ceiling is as high as it was (Top-10, 1 or 2 seed).

Instead, it will take some real coaching to get this team to perform. As others have pointed out there is still a lot of talent on this team including an all-American senior who will be MUs all time leading scorer by the end of opening night. We aren’t going to miss the NCAA, but our ceiling is a big question mark and really
gives Wojo (one last?) chance to show his chops. If he can get 25 wins and a 4 seed out of this team I think he’s our man. If we slide in on the bubble I think the writing is on the wall.

Make the most of this opportunity Woj!

Go MU

[UticaBusBarn]

"Players are people, not horses. You don't handle them. You work with them, you teach them,
and maybe most important, you listen to them." - Red Auerbach

[Class71]

Think the objective is to win games, not to test a coaches ability to handle adversity. Regrettably, I do not see a silver lining. 

[muwarrior69]

Think the objective is to win games, not to test a coaches ability to handle adversity. Regrettably, I do not see a silver lining.

Maybe the 2020 recruiting class?

[D'Lo Brown]

Yeah, what are everyone's thoughts on Wojo?

[BCHoopster]

Average coach, a little above average recruiter, no rocket scientist, works hard might be his best attribute.  In game coaching below average, seems stubborn, inflexible at times, still learning how to handle players.

[tower912]

I was concerned when MU hired Wojo that he only knew one way, the Duke way, and what would happen when the Duke way bumped up against Marquette world.    However, compared to the options at the time, he was probably the best choice.   

  Each one of his teams have been exactly what I expected, record wise.   He has yet to exceed expectations.   

 He has not yet shown himself to be an alchemist or a magician.   

Surprisingly, considering his personal history,  his offense has always been ahead of his defense.

One of the concerns I have about the Duke history is that I have never liked the way K uses his bench.     I don't think a 6-7 man rotation can be successful over the course of the season.    Buzz did it a couple of years, but it was out of necessity.   I didn't like it with Buzz, either.   Playing 35 minutes a game for a season is too much.

The powers wanted the anti-Buzz as far as perception of off the court issues.     They got it. 

Transfers happen everywhere.    I hardly notice anymore.    The Hausers hurt more than most,  at least partially because their presence meant that a lot of good forwards didn't even consider Marquette thinking those two would be there and Wojo got caught flat footed for 2019.     

The other thing that transfers have done is unbalance the roster.    Referring to the bench from a couple of points ago, sitting Markus a few more minutes a game would have helped immensely.     Chartouny not panning out and Greg getting hurt put the team in a vulnerable position from a lot of different angles.   

I neither love nor hate Wojo.    I have not seen enough good to think he is the savior, I have not seen enough bad to fire him.    Some people might argue that 'meh' is cause enough to fire.    I disagree.    I think he has a higher ceiling than 99% of likely replacements.   I just don't know if he gets there.   

[mu_hilltopper]

I was concerned when MU hired Wojo that he only knew one way, the Duke way, and what would happen when the Duke way bumped up against Marquette world.   

This is a good point.   And it likely explains the underperformance of the past half-decade.  The Duke coaching staff has an embarrassment of riches, plucking talent from the top 10-50 kids every single season.   

The thought of making more with less has never dawned on a Duke coach.   For Marquette, that's called Tuesday.

[1SE]

Tower, when can we decide on his ceiling? And if it is “meh”/meeting expectations how long does one put up with that?

Or, in other words, Topper - does he have to do “more with less” at some
point?

I think there is a real chance for him
next season. Had the boys stayed it would have been almost impossible to exceed what would have been very high expectations. Now, with a roster that is still very good, he can make “less with more” and overcome some adversity. Because I love MUBB I’m optimistic, but I was also optimistic at 12 and 2...

[tower912]

Tower, when can we decide on his ceiling? And if it is “meh”/meeting expectations how long does one put up with that?

What is Tom Crean's ceiling at UGA, barring another Wade?   Winning record, tourney appearance, unlikely to seriously contend.
What is Buzz's?   Probably higher than Crean's, but can he build anything long term and stick it out?    Healthy skepticism.

I believe that Wojo's ceiling is higher than either Crean's or Buzz's.    I believe it is in him to be the best of the K tree.    I believe it is in him to get MU higher than we were under Buzz.    I am worried it will be at his next school.     Something is always going to go wrong and he is never going to quite make it at Marquette, but he will go on to his next school and show it, a la Majerus.   

So to me, the question isn't how high his ceiling his.   The question to me is whether he gets there at Marquette.

[Silent Verbal]

What is Tom Crean's ceiling at UGA, barring another Wade?   Winning record, tourney appearance, unlikely to seriously contend.
What is Buzz's?   Probably higher than Crean's, but can he build anything long term and stick it out?    Healthy skepticism.

I believe that Wojo's ceiling is higher than either Crean's or Buzz's.    I believe it is in him to be the best of the K tree.    I believe it is in him to get MU higher than we were under Buzz.    I am worried it will be at his next school.     Something is always going to go wrong and he is never going to quite make it at Marquette, but he will go on to his next school and show it, a la Majerus.   

So to me, the question isn't how high his ceiling his.   The question to me is whether he gets there at Marquette.

I agree about Crean’s ceiling.  He’s exactly what UGA needed, and Indiana, and Marquette.  He knows how to build enthusiasm and get a program back on its feet.  He also knows how to wear out his welcome.

Buzz is a great coach.  Everyone knew he’d end up back in Texas eventually, and now that he’s finally home, it’ll be interesting to see if he sticks around and really builds something.

I have no idea why you think Wojo’s ceiling is higher than two guys who proved they could win in a shorter time frame than Wojo’s had at Marquette.  After a half decade on the job, I think he is what he is:  A mediocre coach and passable recruiter for the program he’s at.  He also, IMO, is a square with a robotic personality.  A robo-coach, if you will.  He doesn’t pass the eye test for me, and he’s been here long enough for sound judgments to be made in that regard.  He’s not great, not terrible, just mediocre.

That said, he could change my mind with a great season.

[GoldenWarrior11]

As reflected in Buzz's VT team this past year, and nearly each of his MU teams, is that the players truly seem to want to run through a brick wall for each other and the team.  The level of chemistry and toughness for his teams are always admirable and a fun sight to see.  With Wojo's team over the last six weeks of the season, they - at many times - look uninspired, gassed, lethargic and (to put it bluntly) mentally weak.  With everything we now know today, it is abundantly clear there was drama tearing away at the core of the program.  Without getting into who/what was at fault, there was not harmony nor unity on last year's team (at least not in the last six weeks). 

What is apparent in recent weeks (post transfers) is that there is now a concerted effort to publicize and showcase the chemistry and unity of the team and from the players we have left.  Between the Facebook posts of Spring workouts, the kickball game, each of the photos of the guys doing things together, there is definitely a campaign to show the program is all-in together.  From events, it is definitely possible for next year's team to out-perform expectations and play better than projections indicate; conversely, it is also possible for the team to once again struggle through adversity (and with playing more new players in the main rotation than this past year). 

Regardless, Wojo is in excellent position next year to showcase the trajectory of his program.  If they over-perform, then he easily gets extended (and likely gets more impact recruits headed our way); if they struggle, even missing the tournament altogether, then he likely gets put on the hot-seat for 20-21, and without a deep(er) tournament run, likely gets shown the door. 

Personally, I think the team surprises more than a few people next year.  I believe the team will have been chemistry and be able to handle adversity much better.

[GooooMarquette]

As reflected in Buzz's VT team this past year, and nearly each of his MU teams, is that the players truly seem to want to run through a brick wall for each other and the team. 

That's because they don't want to be put on flushing duty....

[bilsu]

I have come to the conclusion that Wojo will be here at least another 5 years. He will never be successful enough to be hired away by one of the top programs and he will never be bad enough for MU to fire him.

[GooooMarquette]

I have come to the conclusion that Wojo will be here at least another 5 years. He will never be successful enough to be hired away by one of the top programs and he will never be bad enough for MU to fire him.

Perhaps. But he needs a few NCAA wins to be here another 5 years. The MU leadership is patient as long as the trajectory is generally upward and the kids stay out of trouble...but eventually it's about March....

[tower912]

I have come to the conclusion that Wojo will be here at least another 5 years. He will never be successful enough to be hired away by one of the top programs and he will never be bad enough for MU to fire him.

+1    Much less verbose version of what I said.  And, if Porter Moser can make a final four, Wojo can.

[Loose Cannon]

Think the objective is to win games, not to test a coaches ability to handle adversity. Regrettably, I do not see a silver lining.

If you will, what do you see for this team next year?  Thanks.

[Goose]

Loose

I know question was not directed to me, but I believe matching the "success" of this year is going to be difficult. Barring the signing of a couple high, high level grad transfers, I think NCAA bid is a long shot.

[BCHoopster]

The year will be decided by the 2 bigs staying out of foul trouble and if a 20 year old freshman has a back good enough to give 10 minutes a game, or Cain and Bailey have to get stronger. Finally, Howard has have a better all around game.

[NYWarrior]

The year will be decided by the 2 bigs staying out of foul trouble and if a 20 year old freshman has a back good enough to give 10 minutes a game, or Cain and Bailey have to get stronger. Finally, Howard has have a better all around game.

going into this season with just two bigs is gonna hurt ... Theo led the conference in fouls per minute last season, and he had more help on the baseline than he will going forward. Grad transfer, anyone?

[Loose Cannon]

Loose

I know question was not directed to me, but I believe matching the "success" of this year is going to be difficult. Barring the signing of a couple high, high level grad transfers, I think NCAA bid is a long shot.

Thanks for your thoughts.  My  developing thoughts on this team are:

   1)  They will play a different  style than last years team.
   2)  Markus will be our leading scorer in many games.
   3)  We may have rebound trouble if we don't get another Big.
   4)  New guards will help reduce our Turnovers (Wow Markus had 134) and increase our  possessions.
   5)  Other things, well I'll just have a wait and see attitude at this.


My expectations are pretty basic.  Make the NCAAT and then hoping we have the added adrenaline to win. .
Yeah, I think we will have enough to make the NCAAT.

[Tha Hound]

I have come to the conclusion that Wojo will be here at least another 5 years. He will never be successful enough to be hired away by one of the top programs and he will never be bad enough for MU to fire him.

If this turns our to be true, it puts us fans, not the coach or the administration, in the worst possible scenario. It is exactly like the Bucks in the years where they would finish 8th or 9th in the league. Just good enough to make the playoffs, while at the same time ensuring a mid-round draft pick that will never be a game changer.

The administration can say, "hey, Wojo has now lead us to multiple tournament appearances!" While us fans will know the 8 or 9 seeds we have gotten will never lead us anywhere, and we will never have any chance to actually win the tournament.

Mediocrity. The worst.

[Pakuni]

If this turns our to be true, it puts us fans, not the coach or the administration, in the worst possible scenario. It is exactly like the Bucks in the years where they would finish 8th or 9th in the league. Just good enough to make the playoffs, while at the same time ensuring a mid-round draft pick that will never be a game changer.

Like Giannis.

[mu_hilltopper]

If this turns our to be true, it puts us fans, not the coach or the administration, in the worst possible scenario. It is exactly like the Bucks in the years where they would finish 8th or 9th in the league. Just good enough to make the playoffs, while at the same time ensuring a mid-round draft pick that will never be a game changer.

The administration can say, "hey, Wojo has now lead us to multiple tournament appearances!" While us fans will know the 8 or 9 seeds we have gotten will never lead us anywhere, and we will never have any chance to actually win the tournament.

Mediocrity. The worst.

This is what I would bet on.

[Silent Verbal]

I have come to the conclusion that Wojo will be here at least another 5 years. He will never be successful enough to be hired away by one of the top programs and he will never be bad enough for MU to fire him.

This is an absolutely terrific post and should be pinned to the top of the board.  It sums up my feelings about Wojo perfectly.

I think the best case scenario for next year is that Wojo rides Markus to a win or two in the NCAA Tournament and then makes a lateral move to a school where he can have a fresh start.  He may be looking to get out of dodge since Howard’s graduation probably means another 2 year rebuild.  We would’ve had Joey as the go-to guy in 2020-21, but that’s obviously no longer the case, and things are looking questionable post-Markus.  If he’s going to leave, it’ll happen after next season.

Those who want him fired need to realize we’re not UCLA or an SEC football program.  This administration will live with fair to middling results provided the players stay out of trouble.  So Wojo taking another job is the best way for him to become some other fan board’s problem.

[Galway Eagle]

This is an absolutely terrific post and should be pinned to the top of the board.  It sums up my feelings about Wojo perfectly.

I think the best case scenario for next year is that Wojo rides Markus to a win or two in the NCAA Tournament and then makes a lateral move to a school where he can have a fresh start.  He may be looking to get out of dodge since Howard’s graduation probably means another 2 year rebuild.  We would’ve had Joey as the go-to guy in 2020-21, but that’s obviously no longer the case, and things are looking questionable post-Markus.  If he’s going to leave, it’ll happen after next season.

Those who want him fired need to realize we’re not UCLA or an SEC football program.  This administration will live with fair to middling results provided the players stay out of trouble.  So Wojo taking another job is the best way for him to become some other fan board’s problem.

Not sure about what you're saying regarding post Markus. We'd return an awful lot of experience. Have a solid potentially go to player in Koby. If Bailey gets his legs back or symir is as good as advertised I think we'd stay about the same. I predict two more NCAAs before we go through another rebuild

[Silent Verbal]

Not sure about what you're saying regarding post Markus. We'd return an awful lot of experience. Have a solid potentially go to player in Koby. If Bailey gets his legs back or symir is as good as advertised I think we'd stay about the same. I predict two more NCAAs before we go through another rebuild

Saying that Koby is potentially a go-to guy before he’s ever played a game at Marquette is a bit premature.  He had next to no experience playing against high major competition at his last school, so let’s see how he fares this year before dubbing him The Be All.

As for next year, I agree with Goose.  I think we’ll look a lot more like Buzz’s last season or the two post-Wade NIT years than people want to admit.

[Herman Cain]

This is an absolutely terrific post and should be pinned to the top of the board.  It sums up my feelings about Wojo perfectly.

I think the best case scenario for next year is that Wojo rides Markus to a win or two in the NCAA Tournament and then makes a lateral move to a school where he can have a fresh start.  He may be looking to get out of dodge since Howard’s graduation probably means another 2 year rebuild.  We would’ve had Joey as the go-to guy in 2020-21, but that’s obviously no longer the case, and things are looking questionable post-Markus.  If he’s going to leave, it’ll happen after next season.

Those who want him fired need to realize we’re not UCLA or an SEC football program.  This administration will live with fair to middling results provided the players stay out of trouble.  So Wojo taking another job is the best way for him to become some other fan board’s problem.

I agree with this analysis.

[Galway Eagle]

Saying that Koby is potentially a go-to guy before he’s ever played a game at Marquette is a bit premature.  He had next to no experience playing against high major competition at his last school, so let’s see how he fares this year before dubbing him The Be All.

As for next year, I agree with Goose.  I think we’ll look a lot more like Buzz’s last season or the two post-Wade NIT years than people want to admit.

Played Purdue, Texas Tech and Utah plus tournament team SDSU and damn good Nevada squads multiple times in his two years so you're wrong he has played against high major competition.

Second, I did not dub him anything. Saying someone has the potential is pretty much as conservative of a vote of confidence a person can give. And he does have the potential, he's put up some good numbers in one of the better non P6 conferences. Hence the term potential.

[NCMUFan]

As Buzz used to say "Character revealed".  My guess is Wojo won't bail just to get out of dodge.  His MO doesn't fit it.
Here is my question:  Do you regard MU as having a high turnover on coaches?
Are there any other schools that have as high a turnover of coaches and is as successful as Marquette?
What is our average coaching tenure and standard deviation?  Let' go all the way back to post-Al starting with Hank as Al is of course the bar everyone wants to meet.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Well, if Wojo does depart after next year for another job (and let's assume it is not Duke), an interesting program to keep an eye on in my eyes would be Maryland.  Steve is from Baltimore, has many East coast ties, and would be taking over one of the top basketball programs in the B1G (which also would not be in the ACC against his mentor).  Turgeon has been there for now eight years, and has only advanced to the Sweet 16 once; like Wojo, he recruits very well, but cannot seem to put all the pieces together for sustained success.  That job could be open next Spring.  I have hard time envisioning him taking any ACC job that isn't Duke. 

I do think his long-term goal is the Duke job; however, if he is smart about it, he would wait for someone else to replace Coach K, and then look to get the job after that coach inevitably fails to live up to the expectations.  That should be around 5-7 years from now, which would make next year an ideal jump year. 

[GoldenWarrior11]

As Buzz used to say "Character revealed".  My guess is Wojo won't bail just to get out of dodge.  His MO doesn't fit it.
Here is my question:  Do you regard MU as having a high turnover on coaches?
Are there any other schools that have as high a turnover of coaches and is as successful as Marquette?
What is our average coaching tenure and standard deviation?  Let' go all the way back to post-Al starting with Hank as Al is of course the bar everyone wants to meet.

I actually think a number of the Big East programs have a high-turnover/sustained success rate of coaches.  Xavier, in the past 30 years, has had Pete Gillen, Skip Prosser, Thad Matta, Sean Miller, Chris Mack and now Travis Steele (who I think will be an excellent head coach).  Butler has had Barry Collier, Matta, Lickliter, Brad Stevens, Chris Holtmann and now LaVall Jordan.  Villanova, while they have absolutely had sustained success, have only had three head coach in the past fifty years; that is truly remarkable.  Providence has also had Dave Gavitt, Rick Pitino, Rick Barnes, Gillen and Ed Cooley (Tim Welsh and Keno Davis were not particularly successful).  Georgetown has really only been the Thompsons; we will see what Ewing can do on his own.

[Herman Cain]

Well, if Wojo does depart after next year for another job (and let's assume it is not Duke), an interesting program to keep an eye on in my eyes would be Maryland.  Steve is from Baltimore, has many East coast ties, and would be taking over one of the top basketball programs in the B1G (which also would not be in the ACC against his mentor).  Turgeon has been there for now eight years, and has only advanced to the Sweet 16 once; like Wojo, he recruits very well, but cannot seem to put all the pieces together for sustained success.  That job could be open next Spring.  I have hard time envisioning him taking any ACC job that isn't Duke. 

I do think his long-term goal is the Duke job; however, if he is smart about it, he would wait for someone else to replace Coach K, and then look to get the job after that coach inevitably fails to live up to the expectations.  That should be around 5-7 years from now, which would make next year an ideal jump year.

I agree with this analysis.

[Class71]

Loose

I know question was not directed to me, but I believe matching the "success" of this year is going to be difficult. Barring the signing of a couple high, high level grad transfers, I think NCAA bid is a long shot.

Agreed. Not a dumpster fire, just another so, so season. Wojo will be around for several more years as we stay the course and the program flounders.

[BrewCity83]

As Buzz used to say "Character revealed".  My guess is Wojo won't bail just to get out of dodge.  His MO doesn't fit it.

This is how I see it too.  I think it's more likely for Wojo to build on what he's started at MU for the next 5-10 years than to jump to a stepping-stone job like Maryland if his ultimate goal is a return to Duke.  And I also think it's Wojo's mindset to stay here for as long as we'll have him, even if he's not saying it.

[Spotcheck Billy]

I wonder how much love any dookies have for Maryland, might be more akin to Forest Gregg coaching the Bears.

[mr.MUskie]

Agreed. Not a dumpster fire, just another so, so season. Wojo will be around for several more years as we stay the course and the program flounders.

Yep

[brewcity77]

1)  They will play a different  style than last years team.
   2)  Markus will be our leading scorer in many games.
   3)  We may have rebound trouble if we don't get another Big.
   4)  New guards will help reduce our Turnovers (Wow Markus had 134) and increase our  possessions.

A few thoughts on these thoughts...

1) Totally agree. This roster will need to rely on defense, turnovers, and pace. Not our forte the past few years.

2) As much as Markus' usage was a problem, it could go up significantly without the Hausers. Need to hope Koby & others can demand and shoot the ball.

3) I wonder how much our current roster could help this. Jayce Johnson is the obvious answer, but Koby McEwen was an absolutely elite rebounder at his size. Jamal Cain is another good rebounder. If those guys can at least be adequate offensively, they could offset our rebounding concerns.

4) Markus' turnovers were a product of his high usage. He had a lower turnover rate than Derrick Wilson or Junior ever did. He could still stand to be better, but his turnover rate is okay, it's just amplified by always having the ball in his hands.

[Loose Cannon]

A few thoughts on these thoughts...

1) Totally agree. This roster will need to rely on defense, turnovers, and pace. Not our forte the past few years.

2) As much as Markus' usage was a problem, it could go up significantly without the Hausers. Need to hope Koby & others can demand and shoot the ball.

3) I wonder how much our current roster could help this. Jayce Johnson is the obvious answer, but Koby McEwen was an absolutely elite rebounder at his size. Jamal Cain is another good rebounder. If those guys can at least be adequate offensively, they could offset our rebounding concerns.

4) Markus' turnovers were a product of his high usage. He had a lower turnover rate than Derrick Wilson or Junior ever did. He could still stand to be better, but his turnover rate is okay, it's just amplified by always having the ball in his hands.

Thanks for your thoughts.  Very Thoughtful.

[Daniel]

On the job training is tough, but can be successful if the trainee is open to new ideas, Leann’s from mistakes, and does not let ego get in the way of advancing.

Wojo is learning.  He has made progress as a coach over the years.   The best thing he could is bring in an ex head coach as an assistant.   That with Stan Johnson can help. 

He is trying to succeed, and the right assistant can help him make the next leap.