Nova favored by Five??

[mileskishnish72]

Was thinking 3 would be the max the way Nova has been playing lately. I know the Pavillion is a strong home court, but it makes me wonder about Markus.

[Bocephys]

We got this

[🏀]

I was thinking -3.5 would be a number.

[oldwarrior81]

opened at 3.5

MU 16-5 against the spread since Kansas

[tower912]

Take Nova, give the points.   Nova jumps out big, MU unable to come all the way back.   Just a gut feeling.

[Boozemon Barro]

Moneyline +190

[CountryRoads]

Seems about right. Heard they are really angry about losing a few and a row and are going to try extra hard tonight.

[MUfanatic45]

That line has been jumping. People all over Nova

[NickelDimer]

Expect Nova to play like their season’s on the line. This will be a tough one to pull out. That said from what I’ve seen Nova is tough when they’re hitting shots but very beatable when they’re not. They don’t have a counterpunch. Kind of remind me of our teams the past few years.

[brewcity77]

I've been thinking about what the real Villanova is. The team that lost to Furman & Penn? The team that started 10-0 in the Big East? The team that's gone 1-4 since?

I think they're all the same team. One that generally handles lesser teams, but struggles with similar or better competition, even at home. The Furman loss wasn't really an outlier. Since then, Nova had significant trouble with Temple, DePaul, St John's, Georgetown, & Creighton at home. The only remotely comfortably NCAA team they played at home was Michigan, and that went disastrously.

I think we win somewhat comfortably. 5-10 point margin. Yes, they made that push in Milwaukee, but that game was well in hand most of the second half. We're the better team and they aren't near as invincible as they've been in years past. We got this.

[Oldgym]

Philly writer thinks it's regression to the mean

https://www.philly.com/college-sports/villanova-jay-wright-saddiq-bey-ed-croswell-jared-bynum-20190226.html

So this is a eulogy for Villanova? No, no, no. If Paschall and Booth are hitting a fair number of shots and Collin Gillespie or Saddiq Bey heats up, too, the Wildcats won’t be a fun team to play in March. They probably won’t be a fun team for Marquette to play Wednesday night.

I think our success tonight pivots on Markus's health.

[MUfanatic45]

I've been thinking about what the real Villanova is. The team that lost to Furman & Penn? The team that started 10-0 in the Big East? The team that's gone 1-4 since?

I think they're all the same team. One that generally handles lesser teams, but struggles with similar or better competition, even at home. The Furman loss wasn't really an outlier. Since then, Nova had significant trouble with Temple, DePaul, St John's, Georgetown, & Creighton at home. The only remotely comfortably NCAA team they played at home was Michigan, and that went disastrously.

I think we win somewhat comfortably. 5-10 point margin. Yes, they made that push in Milwaukee, but that game was well in hand most of the second half. We're the better team and they aren't near as invincible as they've been in years past. We got this.

Man I love the optimism, I don't see it but would love to be wrong.

I think we can definitely win tonight(though not counting on it) but I feel like if we do it will be down to the wire.

[goldeneagle91114]

Philly writer thinks it's regression to the mean

https://www.philly.com/college-sports/villanova-jay-wright-saddiq-bey-ed-croswell-jared-bynum-20190226.html

I think our success tonight pivots on Markus's health.

+1

With a healthy Markus, I like our chances, especially with the conference championship on the line. However, if Markus is still hurt i think its a toss up at best.

[VegasWarrior77]

One handicapper likes Marquette over Villanova:
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/ncaa-basketball/ncaab-pick-marquette-will-cover-spread-against-villanova-on-wednesday-february-27/88948/

Of course, he liked Wiscy over Indiana too...

[Bocephys]

I think our success tonight pivots on Markus's health.

Our success tonight depends on the Scoop poll results about Markus' health.

[79Warrior]

I would take MU and the points if I were gambling.

[muguru]

Lock up Booth and Paschall and win the game. Period. They have no one else that can step up enough. That's their problem...Booth and Paschall have to carry so much of the load..they are gassed.

[HowardsWorld]

In my opinion tonight is going to show us just how good or bad of a coach Wojo is. You have a game where you can clinch the #1 seed in conference while winning at least a share of the conference title and only won't clinch it outright if they lose there remaining 3 games. We have all waited for this season for 5 years and the game of the year yes year is tonight. Whether our players show up to win the crown tonight or not this game win or lose falls on Wojo.

[wadesworld]

In my opinion tonight is going to show just how good of a coach Wojo is. You have a game where you can clinch the #1 seed in conference while winning at least a share of the conference title and only won't clinch it outright if they lose there remaining 3 games. We have all waited for the season for 5 years and the game of the year yes year is tonight. Whether our players show up to win the crown tonight or not this game win or lose falls on Wojo.

Not really.  There's a reason we're expected to lose this game.

[HowardsWorld]

Not really.  There's a reason we're expected to lose this game.

I completely disagree. Its time to make a statement. If not this year then when?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Whether our players show up to win the crown tonight or not this game win or lose falls on Wojo.

Interesting take.  No matter how the players play, the result is on Wojo.  OK.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

In my opinion tonight is going to show us just how good or bad of a coach Wojo is. You have a game where you can clinch the #1 seed in conference while winning at least a share of the conference title and only won't clinch it outright if they lose there remaining 3 games. We have all waited for this season for 5 years and the game of the year yes year is tonight. Whether our players show up to win the crown tonight or not this game win or lose falls on Wojo.

So we're just going to ignore the previous 27 games where Wojo has been excellent most nights?

[HowardsWorld]

So we're just going to ignore the previous 27 games where Wojo has been excellent most nights?

No but we are going to the crown tonight against the champ. This will show us what kind of coach he really is and if he learned anything over the last 5 years.  You don't need to agree with what I am saying thats what I believe.

[MUfanatic45]

In my opinion tonight is going to show us just how good or bad of a coach Wojo is. You have a game where you can clinch the #1 seed in conference while winning at least a share of the conference title and only won't clinch it outright if they lose there remaining 3 games. We have all waited for this season for 5 years and the game of the year yes year is tonight. Whether our players show up to win the crown tonight or not this game win or lose falls on Wojo.

[Its DJOver]

I completely disagree. Its time to make a statement. If not this year then when?

Would winning the conference 4 days later really make that much of a different statement?  Even if we lose @Nova, 15-3 is still very realistic, that would be quite a statement following three years of .500 play. IMO of course.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

In my opinion tonight is going to show just how good of a coach Wojo is. You have a game where you can clinch the #1 seed in conference while winning at least a share of the conference title and only won't clinch it outright if they lose there remaining 3 games. We have all waited for the season for 5 years and the game of the year yes year is tonight. Whether our players show up to win the crown tonight or not this game win or lose falls on Wojo.

This one game determines if Wojo is a good coach or not?  Don't get me wrong, it's a big game, but it's not make or break for him as a coach.  The game doesn't even make or break this season.

[HowardsWorld]

Would winning the conference 4 days later really make that much of a different statement?  Even if we lose @Nova, 15-3 is still very realistic, that would be quite a statement following three years of .500 play. IMO of course.

No i completely agree with this however when you have a chance to go for the kill you need to take advantage of it. Something this team has not been able to do under wojo.

[Marcus92]

Villanova depends heavily on three-point shooting. They take over half their shots (53.8%) from beyond the arc -- that's the second highest percentage of any team in the country per KenPom. MU fans know the limits of a one-dimensional offense.

In their most recent three losses, the Wildcats have shot just 11-35 (31.4%), 9-38 (23.7%) and 10-36 (27.8%) respectively from 3-point range. And they're not a great outside shooting team to begin with (35.3% on the season, #129 nationally).

With less depth and fewer reliable weapons on offense, Nova's opponents can focus more on their two best players: Paschall and Booth. With fewer true threats from the perimeter, defenders can help more in the paint. And their defense is a far cry from the high standard of recent years -- down from 11th last season to 81st this year.

I won't count out Villanova. But I think Marquette should win this one.

[HowardsWorld]

This one game determines if Wojo is a good coach or not?  Don't get me wrong, it's a big game, but it's not make or break for him as a coach.  The game doesn't even make or break this season.

Maybe I did not write what I was trying to say the correct way. What I meant is that he is having a hell of a season obviously the best of his career but he has a chance @ Nova who has owned the Big East to take his coaching to the next level and win a big east title on thier home court.

[Its DJOver]

No i completely agree with this however when you have a chance to go for the kill you need to take advantage of it. Something this team has not been able to do under wojo.

You mean something that they haven't had the opportunity to do because they've been a .500 team the last three years. 

Getting that favorable schedule from January 6-30 was an opportunity to go for the kill.  Going 8-0 in that stretch suggests that they took advantage.  Big game tonight yes.  Season decider, no.

[MuMark]

Anonymous Eagle
‏
 
@AnonymousEagle
 13m13 minutes ago
More
UPDATED LATE ADDITION 3) thanks to the memory of @dmaciejewski, Marquette has won at Villanova twice in series history.  Once at Wells Fargo in 2012, once at Wells Fargo in 2008.

that’s it. 2-11, going back to 1966, no wins at the Finn.

[brewcity77]

I completely disagree. Its time to make a statement. If not this year then when?

If we lose tonight then win the next three, we still win the league outright. This game is the biggest of the final four games because it's the only one in which the individual game result can insure the league's 1-seed & share of the crown thanks to the head to head, but it's hardly a negative referendum on Wojo if they take an L tonight.

[jutaw22mu]

This game is a must win and I expect the team and Wojo will play and coach like it.  This team has been playing really well and has been getting stronger all season not only in terms of each player finding their respective roles, but also stronger in terms of mentality.  It is almost disrespectful to MU that we are considered 5 point underdogs in this game. 

It might be really close.  We might be biting our fingernails till the end, but the only way we lose is if the refs give Nova major home cooking. 

[mileskishnish72]

2-11??

This sh!t has to cease!

[MuMark]

lol it's not a must win........

[BM1090]

So if we lose this game but then win 3 straight, finish 15-3, win the BET and make the Final Four, finishing 33-6.....then Wojo can't coach because we lost @ Nova. Got it.

FWIW, I expect a loss tonight. I also expected a loss @ Creighton, @ Butler, @ SJU, and was weary of @ PC. So I've been wrong before.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Yea, think it will be tough to win at the Pavilion but hey, Marquette won a game this year down 5 with less than a second to go so nothing would surprise me this year.

[MUMountin]

If we lose tonight then win the next three, we still win the league outright. This game is the biggest of the final four games because it's the only one in which the individual game result can insure the league's 1-seed & share of the crown thanks to the head to head, but it's hardly a negative referendum on Wojo if they take an L tonight.

If I may, I don't think HowardsWorld is implying that a Loss would be a negative statement on Wojo, but instead is focusing on the contrapositive (thanks, Logic!)--a Win is a huge positive statement on Wojo and may elevate the collective perception of him and the team. 

To this point, this team has mostly won the games it was supposed to (the loss at home to St. John's being the only real "surprise," and even that is a close one) and most of the toss-ups.  I'm not sure I'd say, though, that MU has won a game that it "wasn't" supposed to, which is what tonight is (or at least the closest we'll get in the BE season).  Maybe at the time, the win at Butler felt like that, but their slide since then has deflated that perception. 

And, I think that this can be what really elevates a coach/team from being good to great--can they go in to a hostile environment against a good (recently ranked) team in a game that they are not expected to win and still pull out the victory--especially with the chance to clinch (a share) of the league title.

I don't think anyone will hold it against Wojo or the team if we lose--by most metrics, we should expect that.  But, a win would be a huge statement for both the team and Wojo. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

This game is a must win and I expect the team and Wojo will play and coach like it.  This team has been playing really well and has been getting stronger all season not only in terms of each player finding their respective roles, but also stronger in terms of mentality.  It is almost disrespectful to MU that we are considered 5 point underdogs in this game. 

It might be really close.  We might be biting our fingernails till the end, but the only way we lose is if the refs give Nova major home cooking. 

This is the toughest opponent we have played away from Fiserv since November.  To think that they only way that Marquette loses this game is to ref home cooking or a poor coaching performance is kind of mind blowing.  Nova is struggling but still a very good team. 

[Nukem2]

This is the toughest opponent we have played away from Fiserv since November.  To think that they only way that Marquette loses this game is to ref home cooking or a poor coaching performance is kind of mind blowing.  Nova is struggling but still a very good team.

Yup, and Nova has not lost at home since mid-November.

[Boozemon Barro]

Nova ain't that good.

[Windyplayer]

I suspect yes though few and far between, but has any top 10 team been given 5 points on the road against an unranked team recently?

...a gold star awaits.

[Marcus92]

In our first game against Nova, we won by 1 point at home. Figuring home court advantage is worth about 3-1/2 points, going into Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog isn't that much of a stretch.

Or look at it another way. Tonight Marquette plays its second road game this season against a team ranked in the KenPom Top 50. The first was at Indiana, where MU lost by 23. We beat #51 Creighton by 2 in overtime. We crushed #53 Butler by 18. But we lost to #56 St. John's by 20.

Our average scoring margin in those 4 games: -5.8 points. That's pretty close to the current spread for Nova (currently ranked #29 by KenPom).

Personally, I think Vegas underestimates Marquette. If MU plays up to its full potential -- like a team that belongs in the Top 10 -- we should control the game and win relatively easily (by between 6 and 9 points).

[Mike Deane's Seat Belt]

would love to prove vegas wrong and take this one......... seems like a slap in the face to be a ballpark 5 point underdog as long as markus is ok. 

Did anybody catch that clown during the Wisconsin game bitchin about step back 3s like they don't work, worst shot in basketball, selfish play.......ummm have you not seen markus howard this year buddy?

god that IU wisky game was painful to watch, by the second overtime possibly going into third overtime I was just like put this game out of its misery please!!!!!!!

[MUfanatic45]

would love to prove vegas wrong and take this one......... seems like a slap in the face to be a ballpark 5 point underdog as long as markus is ok. 

Did anybody catch that clown during the Wisconsin game bitchin about step back 3s like they don't work, worst shot in basketball, selfish play.......ummm have you not seen markus howard this year buddy?

god that IU wisky game was painful to watch, by the second overtime possibly going into third overtime I was just like put this game out of its misery please!!!!!!!

dakich lol

hes always full of stupid

[jutaw22mu]

This is the toughest opponent we have played away from Fiserv since November.  To think that they only way that Marquette loses this game is to ref home cooking or a poor coaching performance is kind of mind blowing.  Nova is struggling but still a very good team.

They're good, but we are better.  We should win. 

[muguru]

So if we lose this game but then win 3 straight, finish 15-3, win the BET and make the Final Four, finishing 33-6.....then Wojo can't coach because we lost @ Nova. Got it.

FWIW, I expect a loss tonight. I also expected a loss @ Creighton, @ Butler, @ SJU, and was weary of @ PC. So I've been wrong before.

Not to be too hard on you, because others are the same ,but you should NEVER EXPECT losses when they are the more talented team. I don't and never will understand that. When you are more talented then the teams you play(regardless of venue) EXPECT a win, but understand a loss could happen. Never flat out EXPECT a loss though.

[BM1090]

Not to be too hard on you, because others are the same ,but you should NEVER EXPECT losses when they are the more talented team. I don't and never will understand that. When you are more talented then the teams you play(regardless of venue) EXPECT a win, but understand a loss could happen. Never flat out EXPECT a loss though.

I should rephrase that I didn't necessarily EXPECT a loss, but would have given us a <50% chance of winning.

I'm also not quite sure we are more talented than Nova. I think we are, but it's close. Paschall is something else.

[wadesworld]

The two teams are about as equal as they come, which is why we won by 1 point at home.

Both teams have a clear top two in Booth/Paschall and Markus/Sam.  Those two duos are pretty equal if you ask me.  Gillespe and Joey right now are about as productive as the other, Bey and Sacar are about as productive as each other, and Cosbee-Roundtree is about as productive as Theo outside of the rim protection.  Samuels/Cremo/Quinerly are about equal to Ed/Jamal/Brendan.  The talent right now is pretty much identical.  The coaching is heavily in favor of Nova, and that's coming from someone who never waivered in his support of Wojo.

This is a game you absolutely pencil in as a loss, and you are thrilled if you come away from it with a win.  Us and Nova have separated ourselves from the rest of the Big East, and we're going into their small gym.  There's a reason that places in the business of making money have Nova as a favorite, and not a tiny one at that (not huge either).  We absolutely could win, but it's not a game we should win or shouldn't have any problems with.

[rocket surgeon]

In my opinion tonight is going to show us just how good or bad of a coach Wojo is. You have a game where you can clinch the #1 seed in conference while winning at least a share of the conference title and only won't clinch it outright if they lose there remaining 3 games. We have all waited for this season for 5 years and the game of the year yes year is tonight. Whether our players show up to win the crown tonight or not this game win or lose falls on Wojo.

 so wojo's job is on the line tonight-well buy me a vowel gosh darn it!


 

[HowardsWorld]

 so wojo's job is on the line tonight-well buy me a vowel gosh darn it!


 

Not sure how you came to the conclusion but big if true.

[real chili 83]

Nova could win if they score more points tonight

[LoudMouth]

Nova could win if they score more points tonight

Hopefully the NFL is different than the NCAA

[Marcus92]

How have I missed that awesome Trent Dilfer quote? How did Tom Jackson manage to keep a straight face while he said it?

[AlienWarrior]

now nova -5.5

[cheebs09]

How have I missed that awesome Trent Dilfer quote? How did Tom Jackson manage to keep a straight face while he said it?

He probably agreed with it.

[Carl]

2 max bets.  MU +5.5 and MU moneyline +205.  I can't just let Vegas get away with it this time!

[Carl]

And now I'm mad at the Japanese women's soccer team for a 90th minute goal to tie it up.  Going to cut into the start of the game

[Carl]

Oh cool, forgot soccer teams are cool with just tying.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

2 max bets.  MU +5.5 and MU moneyline +205.  I can't just let Vegas get away with it this time!

Oops.

[Lennys Tap]

Vegas was begging for Marquette money. Those guys aren't dumb.

[wadesworld]

Nothing better than people jumping on telling people how they should've spent their money AFTER a game.

If Vegas was begging for Marquette money then those guys are dumb, given that the line only ever moved in Nova's direction.