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Author Topic: I believe  (Read 10553 times)

MarquetteDano

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Re: I believe
« Reply #50 on: January 22, 2017, 03:23:51 PM »
Northwestern is likely a solid in this year (34 in RPI), not a bubble team.  Ohio State is bad, essentially comparable to Georgetown who is 2nd to last in our conference.

As long as that stays that is great.  Easy to cheer for the Wildcats.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: I believe
« Reply #51 on: January 22, 2017, 03:38:14 PM »
We're a bubble team. Hoping we can find a way to the tourney. No change in thinking since day one of the season.

Definitely still a bubble team, but definitely on the safe side of it today. Hard to say yesterday's game doesn't change the thinking. We still need to get to 10 wins, but obviously that win makes it easier, and erases any doubt if being left out at 10-8. I also think it makes getting in at 9-9 a possibility, albeit we'd still need help. But the bubble, like most years, is going to be weak, and this team has ZERO bad losses. We're in pretty good shape, IMO.
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

Jay Bee

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Re: I believe
« Reply #52 on: January 22, 2017, 03:49:53 PM »
Definitely still a bubble team, but definitely on the safe side of it today. Hard to say yesterday's game doesn't change the thinking. We still need to get to 10 wins, but obviously that win makes it easier, and erases any doubt if being left out at 10-8. I also think it makes getting in at 9-9 a possibility, albeit we'd still need help. But the bubble, like most years, is going to be weak, and this team has ZERO bad losses. We're in pretty good shape, IMO.

0 games vs. RPI 101-200; 7-0 vs. 201+.. with 3 of them against teams in the 300's.. Western Carolina, SIUE, Howard, St. Francis, etc.. all at risk of coming in a bit worse than preseason projections... Seton Hall & Georgia may fall out of top 50 RPI by year end.. so, Creighton is our only Top 50 win to date, potentially.. putting us at 1-5 vs. top 50 RPI..

Absolutely a reasonable path to the tourney.. but far too early to be feeling good for me.
Thanks for ruining summer, Canada.

forgetful

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Re: I believe
« Reply #53 on: January 22, 2017, 04:03:41 PM »
0 games vs. RPI 101-200; 7-0 vs. 201+.. with 3 of them against teams in the 300's.. Western Carolina, SIUE, Howard, St. Francis, etc.. all at risk of coming in a bit worse than preseason projections... Seton Hall & Georgia may fall out of top 50 RPI by year end.. so, Creighton is our only Top 50 win to date, potentially.. putting us at 1-5 vs. top 50 RPI..

Absolutely a reasonable path to the tourney.. but far too early to be feeling good for me.

Your stats are wrong.  We are 3-5 against the RPI top 50, wins listed only:

Georgia (RPI: 44)
Seton Hall (RPI: 36)
Creighton (RPI: 12)

Two of those were on the road.


Jay Bee

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Re: I believe
« Reply #54 on: January 22, 2017, 04:07:39 PM »
Your stats are wrong.  We are 3-5 against the RPI top 50, wins listed only:

Georgia (RPI: 44)
Seton Hall (RPI: 36)
Creighton (RPI: 12)

Two of those were on the road.

No. My stats are exactly correct. Read again, bud... "Seton Hall & Georgia may fall out of top 50 RPI by year end.. so, Creighton is our only Top 50 win to date, potentially.."

What a team's RPI is today ain't gonna matter come Selection Sunday, bud. I acknowledged Seton Hall & Georgia are in the top 50 today.. but, they both project to fall out -- to ignore that would be stupid.
Thanks for ruining summer, Canada.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: I believe
« Reply #55 on: January 22, 2017, 04:48:08 PM »
0 games vs. RPI 101-200; 7-0 vs. 201+.. with 3 of them against teams in the 300's.. Western Carolina, SIUE, Howard, St. Francis, etc.. all at risk of coming in a bit worse than preseason projections... Seton Hall & Georgia may fall out of top 50 RPI by year end.. so, Creighton is our only Top 50 win to date, potentially.. putting us at 1-5 vs. top 50 RPI..

Absolutely a reasonable path to the tourney.. but far too early to be feeling good for me.

Fair enough, but those are still solid wins. And if we get to 10 in BE we're gonna get some more decent wins. Compare that to other bubble teams and we look pretty good.

Let's put it this way - we're in exponentially better shape than we were at noon yesterday.
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: I believe
« Reply #56 on: January 22, 2017, 04:50:10 PM »
Northwestern projected at 23-8 per KenPom. They aint a bubble team if they keep that up.

Even if they were, if we play well down the stretch it shouldnt matter.

We R Final Four

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Re: I believe
« Reply #57 on: January 22, 2017, 05:25:54 PM »
........with a signature win over Dayton at home.
Lot of opportunities for your team still to come in late January and February though.

forgetful

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Re: I believe
« Reply #58 on: January 22, 2017, 05:28:24 PM »
No. My stats are exactly correct. Read again, bud... "Seton Hall & Georgia may fall out of top 50 RPI by year end.. so, Creighton is our only Top 50 win to date, potentially.."

What a team's RPI is today ain't gonna matter come Selection Sunday, bud. I acknowledged Seton Hall & Georgia are in the top 50 today.. but, they both project to fall out -- to ignore that would be stupid.

Misread it, sorry, but saying "they may fall out" is meaningless. 

Vanderbilt (RPI 58) "may rise up" so we might be 4-5 right now. 

The projections I see for Seton Hall are to finish at 47, Georgia at 40.  So both project to stay in the top 50.

The only thing we know for certain is right now we are 3-5 against the RPI top 50.  Projecting anything at this point is meaningless, even more meaningless given your projections don't match the ones I see.


Jay Bee

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Re: I believe
« Reply #59 on: January 22, 2017, 05:36:37 PM »
Misread it, sorry, but saying "they may fall out" is meaningless. 

Vanderbilt (RPI 58) "may rise up" so we might be 4-5 right now. 

The projections I see for Seton Hall are to finish at 47, Georgia at 40.  So both project to stay in the top 50.

The only thing we know for certain is right now we are 3-5 against the RPI top 50.  Projecting anything at this point is meaningless, even more meaningless given your projections don't match the ones I see.

You're dumb when it comes to this stuff, bud.
Thanks for ruining summer, Canada.

forgetful

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Re: I believe
« Reply #60 on: January 22, 2017, 05:46:02 PM »
You're dumb when it comes to this stuff, bud.

There is no being "smart" or "dumb" on statistical projections at this point.  Being "smart" or "dumb" can only be ascertained once the results are known.  Then how statistical weights were applied can be evaluated as "dumb/smart". 

Currently, there is not sufficient data to make an accurate projection at the end of the season. 

The only accurate thing to do is to state what is currently known and evaluate the rest at the end of the season.

Jay Bee

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Re: I believe
« Reply #61 on: January 22, 2017, 06:14:53 PM »
There is no being "smart" or "dumb" on statistical projections at this point.  Being "smart" or "dumb" can only be ascertained once the results are known.  Then how statistical weights were applied can be evaluated as "dumb/smart". 

Currently, there is not sufficient data to make an accurate projection at the end of the season. 

The only accurate thing to do is to state what is currently known and evaluate the rest at the end of the season.

That's absurd and ridiculous. So, so very wrong.
Thanks for ruining summer, Canada.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: I believe
« Reply #62 on: January 23, 2017, 11:23:22 AM »
Not sure that there is causality there
It's attitudes like that the will lose us the NC.  Thanks Tower!
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

1SE

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Re: I believe
« Reply #63 on: January 25, 2017, 01:38:14 AM »
Well that was nice to wake up to. Glad I got on board after Creighton. :P

Sorry your predictions aren't working out this year Tower.  ;)

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