Sweden?

[MarquetteDano]

Intellectual dishonesty and goal-post shifting at its finest!  A veritable Chicos masterpiece!!!  <chef's kiss>

[WarriorDad]

Of course they are out of whack.  More than three times their per capita population is dying due to the disease than the best comparables YOU provided.

And yes, they are trying to get to herd immunity by letting the infection run rampant, which is morally problematic.  It assumes that treatment or prevention techniques would not improve over time.  So the curve my not only flatten, but decrease.

Is it morally problematic if in the end it saves lives?  If their approach saves lives both from the virus itself and the fallout of economic crisis they hope to avert (also costing lives)  I don't see how that is morally problematic.  If they are wrong, then ok.  If they are right, they would be on the correct side of the moral argument.

[WarriorDad]

You're confusing mortality rates of infection with mortality rates of known cases. These are not the same thing.

The case mortality rate for the flu is about .1 percent - that is, for every 1,000 reported cases, 1 person dies. The case mortality rate for COVID-19 is about 6 percent, meaning that for every 1,000 reported cases, 60 people die.

The infection mortality rates for both are much lower, but show that COVID-19 is significantly more dangerous. The estimated infection mortality rate is currently .5 to .6 percent. So, working off the lower number, 5 in 1,000 who contract it (reported or not), are dying. That's still five times higher than the mortality rates of known flu cases, much less the millions of cases every year that never get reported.

I'm actually not confusing them and a few messages above mention the different between a true mortality rate and a crude mortality rate based on cases.   We agree that this is more lethal and more contagious than the flu.  Cannot recall ever saying anything differently.  The ongoing debate is whether those numbers should be shutting down the world and eliciting the additional pain and suffering it is.  That may be easy for you and I to say yes.  I'm semi-retired.  My children in their 20's and 30's think of it differently and the amazing bill we are handing to the next generation has me and so many others asking questions about the tradeoffs.

[Pakuni]

Is it morally problematic if in the end it saves lives?  If their approach saves lives both from the virus itself and the fallout of economic crisis they hope to avert (also costing lives)  I don't see how that is morally problematic.  If they are wrong, then ok.  If they are right, they would be on the correct side of the moral argument.

Yes, willingly allowing innocent people to die today because there's a chance - not a certainty, a chance - it maybe could save lives in the future is indeed morally problematic.

Maybe we should execute children caught setting fires. Setting fires in childhood is a common denominator among serial killers. It could save lives in the end.
(Yes, I'm being hyperbolic)

[pbiflyer]

This guy disagrees with WD. Now what will he do??

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1255825648448348161

Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!

[Pakuni]

I'm actually not confusing them

Here's what you wrote:
"The true rate based on any number of worldwide estimates is less than 1%.  That is higher than the flu, which is .1 to .3%"

You literally compared the estimated COVID-19 infection mortality rate with the flu case mortality rate.
You're either confusing them or knowingly trying to mislead. There is no other option. I was giving you the benefit of the doubt.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

This guy disagrees with WD. Now what will he do??

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1255825648448348161

Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!

Well there ya go.  The Donald and I agree on something.

[MarquetteDano]

This guy disagrees with WD. Now what will he do??

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1255825648448348161

Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!

I still think it may be a bit early to call their decision incorrect.  It isn't looking good but we should wait to see how this plays out.  It doesn't mean though we should just open every state.  Starting in early May we are going to get a peek into the Sweden technique as some states will be opening up.

There is a scenario where their neighbor's death spike and Sweden's doesn't.  Time will tell.

[forgetful]

The debate is around projecting numbers that aren't true.  Claiming a 12% mortality rate, or even 5% is not accurate and accomplishes what exactly?  Other than more fear, confusion and panic.   The true rate based on any number of worldwide estimates is less than 1%.  That is higher than the flu, which is .1 to .3%, but if it lands at .8% that is significantly different than 5% or 12% that some are using erroneously.

Well, if you read what I actually wrote, instead of spinning it into whatever argument you want to make at that particular second, things would make more sense.

I said, Sweden was saying other nations were underreporting their cases, and deaths, to make their numbers look better. But Sweden says they are not doing this, they are being extra vigilant on testing and accuracy.

If that is true, and they are accurately catching and reporting their numbers the mortality rate is 12.1%. Which, gives rise to the same two possiblities I proposed earlier, before you shifted the goalposts.

1) The suck at treating patients. 2) They are misreporting numbers due to poor testing. The latter means, we have no idea how many cases, or deaths they really have. The latter also means that their criticism of others is unjustified.

[forgetful]

Not sure whats going on in Europe but other countries are being pretty dishonest about their death rates. Some are pretending covid barely exists, then some like states in the US are doing the opposite. We're counting pretty much every death due to covid symptoms as a covid death (problematic as these are very standard symptoms) as well as people dying of other issues who have covid as a covid death. I know of two personally. One died of a heart attach unrelated to covid, and another died in a car accident. Both were counted.

Heart attacks are not being included. Unless, they have tested positive for COVID-19. In the latter case, COVID-19 aggressively attacks heart tissue too, and can affect clotting. Both of which can cause or contribute to a heart attack. They should be included.

Car accidents are not being included. Unless, they had COVID-19, and the accident report can show that COVID-19 contributed to the accident. That is very common, since COVID-19 causes severe hypoxia, which leads to you having the mental acuity and coordination of essentially being the most drunk you have ever been. Again, this should absolutely be included as a COVID death.

There are very few if any, non-COVID related deaths being counted as COVID, there are far more being excluded due to some municipalities requiring a positive test, even in cases where clinically it is obvious that the death was due to COVID.

The fact that more deaths are being excluded is validated by the fact that we have about 50% more deaths than normal, even after correcting for COVID-19. That is despite fewer people being on roads so fewer auto deaths.

[Sir Lawrence]

Car accidents are not being included. Unless, they had COVID-19, and the accident report can show that COVID-19 contributed to the accident. That is very common, since COVID-19 causes severe hypoxia, which leads to you having the mental acuity and coordination of essentially being the most drunk you have ever been. Again, this should absolutely be included as a COVID death.



The fact that more deaths are being excluded is validated by the fact that we have about 50% more deaths than normal, even after correcting for COVID-19. That is despite fewer people being on roads so fewer auto deaths.

I'm very interested in the bolded parts of your quote.  Where are you getting this data from?  Not challenging, just looking for the data.

[Pakuni]

I'm very interested in the bolded parts of your quote.  Where are you getting this data from?  Not challenging, just looking for the data.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/us-reports-66000-more-deaths-than-expected-so-far-this-year/2020/04/29/b6833548-8a68-11ea-ac8a-fe9b8088e101_story.html

[forgetful]

I'm very interested in the bolded parts of your quote.  Where are you getting this data from?  Not challenging, just looking for the data.

Pakuni linked one of the articles I was referring to.

Also this:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

8000 death gap, 18,109 COVID deaths. So the unexplained 8000 deaths accounts for roughly 50% more deaths.

There are a number of these studies out there.

[Sir Lawrence]

Thanks.  I read the technical notes in the CDC article, where it states "These estimates are based on provisional data, which are incomplete. The weighting method applied here may not fully account for underreporting if there are longer delays at present than in past years. Conversely, the weighting method may over-adjust for underreporting, given improvements in data timeliness in certain jurisdictions."  But the trend does seem to validate the conclusion of the articles.

Death sucks.   

forgetful, what about your car accident statement?  I've not seen any news articles about COVID-19 related vehicular accidents.  Thanks.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Thanks.  I read the technical notes in the CDC article, where it states "These estimates are based on provisional data, which are incomplete. The weighting method applied here may not fully account for underreporting if there are longer delays at present than in past years. Conversely, the weighting method may over-adjust for underreporting, given improvements in data timeliness in certain jurisdictions."  But the trend does seem to validate the conclusion of the articles.

Death sucks.   

forgetful, what about your car accident statement?  I've not seen any news articles about COVID-19 related vehicular accidents.  Thanks.

I've heard of exactly zero covid caused auto fatalities.  If you are in as bad of shape as forgetful describes, you're not getting behind a wheel, you are calling 911.

Most insurers are sending money back, their auto losses are down so much from less driving due to WFH.

[forgetful]

Thanks.  I read the technical notes in the CDC article, where it states "These estimates are based on provisional data, which are incomplete. The weighting method applied here may not fully account for underreporting if there are longer delays at present than in past years. Conversely, the weighting method may over-adjust for underreporting, given improvements in data timeliness in certain jurisdictions."  But the trend does seem to validate the conclusion of the articles.

Death sucks.   

forgetful, what about your car accident statement?  I've not seen any news articles about COVID-19 related vehicular accidents.  Thanks.

I agree on not really being able to fully look at the statistics on the deaths, and possible issues with delays in reporting.

Regarding the vehicular accidents. I have not heard of any vehicular deaths being called a COVID death, I was giving a scenario where it would be justified, in response to UJ saying a car accident death was called COVID.

If anyone has ever done high-altitude training (over 20k feet), and experienced hypoxia, you'd understand what I mean by "most drunk you've ever felt".

edit: just read, I actually wrote "very common" in regards to vehicular deaths. That was my bad. I was thinking, it would be very common to have severe hypoxia, not very common for people to die while driving, but my brain defied me and put the phrasing in the wrong place.

[forgetful]

If you are in as bad of shape as forgetful describes, you're not getting behind a wheel, you are calling 911.

Just like when people are drunk, and think they are fine. The same thing can happen with Hypoxia. That is why high-altitude climbers, or anyone taking part in high-altitude flight operations, undergoes specific training to recognize and properly respond to their hypoxia symptoms.

One of the things they are seeing with COVID is people in severe hypoxia, and not even realizing it. Essentially being in the ER for something else, and when hooked up to the pulse oximeter, realize they are in big trouble. Very odd disease.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Just like when people are drunk, and think they are fine. The same thing can happen with Hypoxia. That is why high-altitude climbers, or anyone taking part in high-altitude flight operations, undergoes specific training to recognize and properly respond to their hypoxia symptoms.

We gonna have to agreed to disagree on this one, kin.

[forgetful]

We gonna have to agreed to disagree on this one, kin.

Have you ever taken part in high-altitude flight training?

https://www.aviationmedicine.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Weighing-the-Risks-of-Hypoxia-Training.pdf

Hypoxia is some crazy stuff. People respond in drastically different ways.

and here is a link to "silent hypoxia' being an issue with COVID.

https://www.livescience.com/silent-hypoxia-killing-covid-19-coronavirus-patients.html

[Sir Lawrence]

I can also see a scenario where someone is living alone, is suffering from the virus, and decides to drive to a hospital rather than call an ambulance.

[Lennys Tap]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/us-reports-66000-more-deaths-than-expected-so-far-this-year/2020/04/29/b6833548-8a68-11ea-ac8a-fe9b8088e101_story.html

I’m a little confused. Early in the article they break down the 66000 death “above normal” as approximately 33000 covid related and 33000 non covid. Later they say covid deaths are at 60000+. So somebody is already accounting for almost all of the overage as Covid related, no?

As a totally irrelevant but to me interesting BTW, the article was written by the the namesake of the famous owner/operator of Lenny’s Tap on 18th and State - the late, great Lenny Bernstein. Not surprisingly, I take every word as gospel.

[Sir Lawrence]

I’m a little confused. Early in the article they break down the 66000 death “above normal” as approximately 33000 covid related and 33000 non covid. Later they say covid deaths are at 60000+. So somebody is already accounting for almost all of the overage as Covid related, no?

As a totally irrelevant but to me interesting BTW, the article was written by the the namesake of the famous owner/operator of Lenny’s Tap on 18th and State - the late, great Lenny Bernstein. Not surprisingly, I take every word as gospel.

This made my day.  To Lenny B.  RIP!

[injuryBug]

Everyone spins the numbers to whatever makes it look good for them at that moment.  I hear the virus spreads so fast and we have no clue how many people are infected cause of those without symptoms.  Then when the death numbers are taken it is taken with just those that tested positive.

Facts = it spreads fast and easily and kills those older and with pre existing conditions more than healthy people

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This is probably a better combo for the US

https://www.wsj.com/articles/local-practical-apolitical-inside-germanys-successful-coronavirus-strategy-11588325403

[pbiflyer]

This is probably a better combo for the US

https://www.wsj.com/articles/local-practical-apolitical-inside-germanys-successful-coronavirus-strategy-11588325403

I am actually working on a project that shares and tracks information in Germany. Some states, like Hesse are pretty sophisticated, even tracking the "
smart" hospital beds. They are far ahead of the curve in tracking resources.
Most of my role is adapting that to apply those things to US states. Responses from most of the states are "There is no way we could ever track that level of information" or "We don't need to track that much information".
Looking at the death rate comparison, perhaps we should try.