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Author Topic: +/- DePaul Game  (Read 8751 times)

BenCat12

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+/- DePaul Game
« on: January 05, 2014, 12:38:51 AM »
Name   Plus   Minus  Game   Min.           P/M per Min
J. Wilson   56   51        5          31                 0.16
D. Gardner   58   49        9          35                 0.26
J. Anderson12   18       -6          10                -0.6
J. Thomas   56   50        6          36                 0.17
C. Otule   15   15        0          16                   0
D. Wilson   54   38       16          31                0.52
T. Mayo   55   33       22          29                0.76
D. Burton   24   26       -2         12               -0.17

Basically this is a breakdown of the points scored and given up while each player was in the game. Not by the individual player, but the team while said player was in the game.  For example, while Jamil was in the game 56 points were scored by MU while 51 were given up.  The P/M per min. stat is the amount of points each player contributed per minute played.  Interesting we all assume Gardner as stud of the game, but from a statistical breakdown perspective Mayo effected his teams productivity the most, followed by Derrick Wilson.  Hope this gives some perspective.

UticaBusBarn

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2014, 06:56:47 AM »
Thank you ... always helpful to actually see a few numbers as opposed speculation.

The most illuminating fact in your analysis is that the J.Wilson, D. Wilson, T. Mayo, J. Thomas, D. Gardner five were the most effective combination, and that Mayo may have been the key. (Note this line-up is composed of three seniors and two juniors.)

The above noted five also meet the proverbial eye-ball test. They actually looked like a team. Mayo, in particular, seemed to be a real point guard, although he was running the point, more or less, from the wing.

After 15 games I would hope that a team of five has (finally) emerged. However, the thought is tempered when one considers a game with a minute to play, the Warriors up by one, and D. Wilson bringing the ball down the court. Fouling him is like money in the bank for any Warrior opponent in a tight game.

Anyway, good statistics and I would hope you could keep providing us with this sort of analysis.

GooooMarquette

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2014, 08:12:17 AM »
Good to have a few facts.  I tried pointing out in another thread that Derrick made a huge difference yesterday, but the usual naysayers did nothing but quote individual stats from the box score...totally ignoring the fact that the TEAM played much better with him in.  Nice to see great numbers from Todd as well.


ATL MU Warrior

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2014, 10:26:39 AM »
Good to have a few facts.  I tried pointing out in another thread that Derrick made a huge difference yesterday, but the usual naysayers did nothing but quote individual stats from the box score...totally ignoring the fact that the TEAM played much better with him in.  Nice to see great numbers from Todd as well.
+1

Wonder why none of those folks have bothered to make an appearance in this thread??  ::)

NersEllenson

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2014, 10:39:28 AM »
+1

Wonder why none of those folks have bothered to make an appearance in this thread??  ::)

Well when you play 31 of the 40 minutes available in a game, and you win the game by 11 - it shouldn't come as a shock Derrick's +/- was good.  How many of his 31 minutes was Mayo in the game with him?  Gardner?

If you nuts want to sing the praises of a guy who put up Derrick's stat line yesterday against the perennial cellar dweller in the Big East - knock yourselves out.  He had 2 turnovers, 0 steals, 0 FG's made, shot 33% from the FT line, and had 3 assists.  Wow.  Definitely was a difference maker out there yesterday - sure handled all that full court pressure with ease...wait, he's never been pressed all year.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

GGGG

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2014, 10:42:15 AM »
It doesn't take a genius to see that he was much better handling the ball than Jamil was.

ATL MU Warrior

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2014, 10:42:59 AM »
Well when you play 31 of the 40 minutes available in a game, and you win the game by 11 - it shouldn't come as a shock Derrick's +/- was good.  How many of his 31 minutes was Mayo in the game with him?  Gardner?

If you nuts want to sing the praises of a guy who put up Derrick's stat line yesterday against the perennial cellar dweller in the Big East - knock yourselves out.  He had 2 turnovers, 0 steals, 0 FG's made, shot 33% from the FT line, and had 3 assists.  Wow.  Definitely was a difference maker out there yesterday - sure handled all that full court pressure with ease...wait, he's never been pressed all year.
Do you at least recognize the irony of posting his indvidual stats <again> in a thread about how much better the <team> performed with him in the game?  

Oh, and by the way, I will take that stat line from him every time if we win the game.  And I am sure he is just fine with it as well.  

NersEllenson

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2014, 10:46:16 AM »
It doesn't take a genius to see that he was much better handling the ball than Jamil was.

I'm happy to agree with you here - yet I'd hope the starting PG and leading minute getter on the team, is better handling the ball than a 6'7, three or four.

It also doesn't take a genius to see MU hasn't been getting pressed all year, nor faced a ton of ball pressure, so I don't see it as a great achievement to play relatively turnover free - that wasn't exactly Lville out there today.  

It also doesn't take a genius to look at Derrick's stat line from DePaul or Creighton for that matter and see he's highly ineffective.  But...perhaps, as you've said Sultan - he is the best option on the team - and Dawson would be far worse, as hard as that is for me to believe.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2014, 10:47:41 AM »
I'm happy to agree with you here - yet I'd hope the starting PG and leading minute getter on the team, is better handling the ball than a 6'7, three or four.

It also doesn't take a genius to see MU hasn't been getting pressed all year, nor faced a ton of ball pressure, so I don't see it as a great achievement to play relatively turnover free - that wasn't exactly Lville out there today.  

It also doesn't take a genius to look at Derrick's stat line from DePaul or Creighton for that matter and see he's highly ineffective.  But...perhaps, as you've said Sultan - he is the best option on the team - and Dawson would be far worse, as hard as that is for me to believe.
And what is the reason that teams are not pressing us do you think?

Wojo'sMojo

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2014, 10:53:12 AM »
And what is the reason that teams are not pressing us do you think?

The good teams don't need to press us. They know once Derrick gets it over half court he will bog down our offense anyway.

NersEllenson

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2014, 10:54:55 AM »
And what is the reason that teams are not pressing us do you think?

It's obvious - Derrick Wilson strikes the fear in the hearts of our oppositions coaching staff.  Sarcasm aside, why would you press a team and potentially* give a team a 3 on 2 opportunity, when you can just settle into your halfcourt defense and force MU to play 4 against 5 (per Buzz's words).

However, I really hope to hell we don't see a full court press this year, as I have serious doubts about our ability to handle that.  
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2014, 11:00:47 AM »
It's obvious - Derrick Wilson strikes the fear in the hearts of our oppositions coaching staff.  Sarcasm aside, why would you press a team and potentially* give a team a 3 on 2 opportunity, when you can just settle into your halfcourt defense and force MU to play 4 against 5 (per Buzz's words).

However, I really hope to hell we don't see a full court press this year, as I have serious doubts about our ability to handle that.  
I don't know why teams would press us either, we have too many guys that can handle the ball for it to be effective.  I'm just curious why you keep bringing it up as an excuse to bash Derrick if you think it's a poor strategy for teams to use against us to begin with.

NersEllenson

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2014, 11:06:36 AM »
I don't know why teams would press us either, we have too many guys that can handle the ball for it to be effective.  I'm just curious why you keep bringing it up as an excuse to bash Derrick if you think it's a poor strategy for teams to use against us to begin with.

Trust me on this one ATL - you do not want to see what will happen with this MU team if it faces a stiff full court press.  But, you asked why we haven't seen it, and I and MUBUZZ gave you the answer.

Quite frankly, I don't think it would be a poor strategy for teams to full court press us from their perspective...as I think we'd turn it over a ton....but...there is no real point to do it, when you know you can defend in the halfcourt essentially 5 on 4.

Why I mention the lack of teams pressuring us, is because, some people want to trumpet how good Derrick is at protecting the ball - yet he virtually never is faced with intense on the ball or full court pressure.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2014, 11:18:55 AM »
Trust me on this one ATL - you do not want to see what will happen with this MU team if it faces a stiff full court press.  But, you asked why we haven't seen it, and I and MUBUZZ gave you the answer.

Quite frankly, I don't think it would be a poor strategy for teams to full court press us from their perspective...as I think we'd turn it over a ton....but...there is no real point to do it, when you know you can defend in the halfcourt essentially 5 on 4.

Why I mention the lack of teams pressuring us, is because, some people want to trumpet how good Derrick is at protecting the ball - yet he virtually never is faced with intense on the ball or full court pressure.
Sorry, I don't trust you on this.  Your credibility is zero, despite your being an "avid dunker", your Dominic James-like vertical, and all your other significant basketball accomplishments. 

River rat

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2014, 06:57:40 PM »
I would defintely agree that we were better with derrick out than than when we had no PG.  however, just because he is the best PG on our team does not mean he is a good PG.  i like jake and derrick, seem like wonderful kids n representatives of MU.  However, they are the worst starting 2g and pg in the big east.  Hopefully derrick can step up his game we really have no alternative and mayo and jjj can step up theirs and improve our play at the 2

Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2014, 07:01:23 PM »
I'm happy to agree with you here - yet I'd hope the starting PG and leading minute getter on the team, is better handling the ball than a 6'7, three or four.

Is it surprising that Jamil is better than Dawson?

I mean, if Buzz had ANY confidence in Dawson, he'd get some minutes, right?

MU82

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2014, 07:10:06 PM »
Thank you ... always helpful to actually see a few numbers as opposed speculation.

The most illuminating fact in your analysis is that the J.Wilson, D. Wilson, T. Mayo, J. Thomas, D. Gardner five were the most effective combination, and that Mayo may have been the key. (Note this line-up is composed of three seniors and two juniors.)

The above noted five also meet the proverbial eye-ball test. They actually looked like a team. Mayo, in particular, seemed to be a real point guard, although he was running the point, more or less, from the wing.

After 15 games I would hope that a team of five has (finally) emerged. However, the thought is tempered when one considers a game with a minute to play, the Warriors up by one, and D. Wilson bringing the ball down the court. Fouling him is like money in the bank for any Warrior opponent in a tight game.

Anyway, good statistics and I would hope you could keep providing us with this sort of analysis.

Two things surprised me a little:

1. How loose with the ball Jamil was.

2. Why DePaul didn't foul Derrick in the final 2 minutes. If I were Purnell, I'd have forced Derrick to keep Marquette in the lead.
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connie

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2014, 07:18:07 PM »
Loved that Buzz was switching things up.  Loved that DG finally went off.  Loved the result.

Hated that we had to work so hard against DePaul--at home, and after their starting center picked up two fouls 34 seconds into the game.

Let's hope the experiments continue, with the same results, as we move forward.
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RushmoreAcademy

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2014, 08:01:36 PM »
No reason to press a team that is frequently horribly inept in the the half court offense and possibly give them any easy baskets.

NersEllenson

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #19 on: January 06, 2014, 09:48:12 AM »
Is it surprising that Jamil is better than Dawson?

I mean, if Buzz had ANY confidence in Dawson, he'd get some minutes, right?

I'd hope Jamil as a 5th year senior is better than Dawson, and especially considering Buzz has said Jamil is the most talented player he's had at MU of all the guys.

To your point about Buzz lacking confidence in Dawson - clearly he must lack confidence - or as has been his M.O., while at MU, Buzz has a major aversion to giving freshman PT, over guys who have been hard workers, and high character guys, who are upperclassmen.  You could say Blue got a decent amount of time as a frosh - not sure who the backup alternative to Blue would have been at that time - perhaps fellow frosh Mayo?  But other than Vander, who was awful as a freshman - I don't recall one time a freshman has gotten 20+ minutes under Buzz.

The case of Dawson is an interesting one, simply because the upperclassmen in front of him has been so bad - there is a case there to go against convention for Buzz and give the frosh a chance.  But, clearly that doesn't appear as though its gonna happen.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #20 on: January 06, 2014, 10:00:01 AM »
I'd hope Jamil as a 5th year senior is better than Dawson, and especially considering Buzz has said Jamil is the most talented player he's had at MU of all the guys.

To your point about Buzz lacking confidence in Dawson - clearly he must lack confidence - or as has been his M.O., while at MU, Buzz has a major aversion to giving freshman PT, over guys who have been hard workers, and high character guys, who are upperclassmen.  You could say Blue got a decent amount of time as a frosh - not sure who the backup alternative to Blue would have been at that time - perhaps fellow frosh Mayo?  But other than Vander, who was awful as a freshman - I don't recall one time a freshman has gotten 20+ minutes under Buzz.

The case of Dawson is an interesting one, simply because the upperclassmen in front of him has been so bad - there is a case there to go against convention for Buzz and give the frosh a chance.  But, clearly that doesn't appear as though its gonna happen.

#1 It is surprising to me that the starting combo forward is the best option as the back-up PG. MU isn't really deep at forward either, so regardless of how Jamil actually plays, there is a significant opportunity cost as well. Plus, Jamil looked bad when he was asked to play true PG. He's great at entry passes. He understands the offense. He's good at the top of the key. He's bad at bringing the ball up. He's bad at protecting when he has to put it on the floor in the back court.

#2 The whole "Buzz doesn't play frosh." thing was debunked by Paint Touches using data.

http://painttouches.com/2013/10/18/how-much-do-freshman-play-for-buzz-williams/

#3 Is it possible that you have just over estimated how good JD is right now? He might be MU's all time leading scorer in 4 years (I haven idea), but RIGHT NOW, it appears like the coach doesn't think he's ready for meaningful minutes.

Lennys Tap

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #21 on: January 06, 2014, 10:28:31 AM »
  But other than Vander, who was awful as a freshman - I don't recall one time a freshman has gotten 20+ minutes under Buzz.



Exactly. Vander got 20+ but shouldn't have - he wasn't ready. Reggie Smith, Maymon, EW, Jamail, Ferguson, Mayo, Juan, Steve, etc. all arrived at MU with more impressive backgrounds than JD and none of them were ready to play that much at this level - but John Dawson, the fifth highest rated guy in this year's 5 man recruiting class, is. All of that, plus what Buzz sees in practice daily and his woeful numbers when he does play, scream "he's nowhere near ready". Everyone on this board wishes we didn't need Derrick to play 30 minutes to have a chance to win games. Buzz wishes we didn't (see the Jamil at point experiment). But the idea is still to try to win games and until/if the season is lost I hope that doesn't change.

CTWarrior

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #22 on: January 06, 2014, 10:31:35 AM »
#1 It is surprising to me that the starting combo forward is the best option as the back-up PG. MU isn't really deep at forward either, so regardless of how Jamil actually plays, there is a significant opportunity cost as well. Plus, Jamil looked bad when he was asked to play true PG. He's great at entry passes. He understands the offense. He's good at the top of the key. He's bad at bringing the ball up. He's bad at protecting when he has to put it on the floor in the back court.

#2 The whole "Buzz doesn't play frosh." thing was debunked by Paint Touches using data.

http://painttouches.com/2013/10/18/how-much-do-freshman-play-for-buzz-williams/

#3 Is it possible that you have just over estimated how good JD is right now? He might be MU's all time leading scorer in 4 years (I haven idea), but RIGHT NOW, it appears like the coach doesn't think he's ready for meaningful minutes.

I think this is as reasonable and close to correct an assessment on this topic as I have seen.  The fact of the matter is that Derrick Wilson is not really a serviceable 25-30 mpg PG, but he is our best option.  If Buzz thought Dawson was ready at all, he'd be in there, because using Jamil at PG weakens us at 2 positions.  

There is no apparent good solution to our dilemma.  It is just a matter of finding the most optimal available solution.  
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tower912

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #23 on: January 06, 2014, 10:35:18 AM »
CT, there is a way out of the dilemma.   Start Todd or JJJ for Juan.   The offense looked so good against DePaul down the stretch because having Jamil, Todd, and Davante out there opened space for Jake.   Putting a second offensive threat out there to start the game creates space for Oxtule, and can create just enough help to get Jake open looks.   
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Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #24 on: January 06, 2014, 10:38:26 AM »
I think this is as reasonable and close to correct an assessment on this topic as I have seen.  The fact of the matter is that Derrick Wilson is not really a serviceable 25-30 mpg PG, but he is our best option.  If Buzz thought Dawson was ready at all, he'd be in there, because using Jamil at PG weakens us at 2 positions.  

There is no apparent good solution to our dilemma.  It is just a matter of finding the most optimal available solution.  

Agreed.

I actually "like" Derrick as a player... but he needs to split time with another PG to be at his best (the Wilson/Wilson combo could have been pretty good).

If Derrick could play 20-25mpg, I think he'd be more efficient as Buzz could mix/match him to create optimal match-ups.

As it stands, Derrick gets 30+ per night regardless of match-up, and I think it causes him to look pretty bad in spots.

NersEllenson

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #25 on: January 06, 2014, 11:53:52 AM »
#1 It is surprising to me that the starting combo forward is the best option as the back-up PG. MU isn't really deep at forward either, so regardless of how Jamil actually plays, there is a significant opportunity cost as well. Plus, Jamil looked bad when he was asked to play true PG. He's great at entry passes. He understands the offense. He's good at the top of the key. He's bad at bringing the ball up. He's bad at protecting when he has to put it on the floor in the back court.

#2 The whole "Buzz doesn't play frosh." thing was debunked by Paint Touches using data.

http://painttouches.com/2013/10/18/how-much-do-freshman-play-for-buzz-williams/

#3 Is it possible that you have just over estimated how good JD is right now? He might be MU's all time leading scorer in 4 years (I haven idea), but RIGHT NOW, it appears like the coach doesn't think he's ready for meaningful minutes.


Dawson must be pretty bad if he's worse than Derrick Wilson - so I guess I have to put that on the coaching staff for even recruiting him, if he can't crack the lineup and get 15-20 minutes away from the worst point guard in the Big East, and perhaps worst point guard on a Top 75 team...at least statistically.    Derrick is in his 3rd full year in the program...if this is as "good" as he's going to get, there is little sense in not developing the freshman you recruited to the program as well.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

Norm

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #26 on: January 06, 2014, 11:59:43 AM »
#2 The whole "Buzz doesn't play frosh." thing was debunked by Paint Touches using data.

http://painttouches.com/2013/10/18/how-much-do-freshman-play-for-buzz-williams/

I missed this article by Paint Brushes, but the author gives no information as to how he determines the possible minutes played for each player. Take Otule for instance. In his freshman season he sat out the first 10 games of the season with a foot injury. He was available for the next 25 games but only saw action in 9 of them, garnering 60 minutes of floor time. According to the author, there were only 360 possible minutes for Otule to play that year - really???? If you only count the 9 games he actually played in, and only apply 40 minutes possible to play in, that's 360 minutes. But what about the other 16 games, at 40 minutes each, for an additional 640 minutes? Heck, Otule played in the Big East Tournament game against St. John's that year on March 11. Why is the author of the article not counting all the DNP's that Otule racked up his freshman year?

Jeronne Maymon also sat out the NC State game before he transferred, playing in 9 out of a possible 10 games, for 400 minutes available, not the 360 listed.


Henry Sugar

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #27 on: January 06, 2014, 12:03:16 PM »
#2 The whole "Buzz doesn't play frosh." thing was debunked by Paint Touches using data.

http://painttouches.com/2013/10/18/how-much-do-freshman-play-for-buzz-williams/

I'd not read this article from PT before. Thanks for sharing.

Having said that, I think the PT analysis is wrong. The short version is that the PT analysis is not an apples to apples comparison with the Hanner analysis. To complicate it, the Hanner analysis isn't exactly clear.

I still think that Buzz plays freshmen less than other coaches.
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Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #28 on: January 06, 2014, 12:04:31 PM »
Dawson must be pretty bad if he's worse than Derrick Wilson - so I guess I have to put that on the coaching staff for even recruiting him, if he can't crack the lineup and get 15-20 minutes away from the worst point guard in the Big East, and perhaps worst point guard on a Top 75 team...at least statistically.    Derrick is in his 3rd full year in the program...if this is as "good" as he's going to get, there is little sense in not developing the freshman you recruited to the program as well.

Well, truthfully, I don't know if Dawson is ready to contribute or not.

Nobody on the internet does.

(that's the whole point)



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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #29 on: January 06, 2014, 12:06:05 PM »
Dawson must be pretty bad if he's worse than Derrick Wilson - so I guess I have to put that on the coaching staff for even recruiting him, if he can't crack the lineup and get 15-20 minutes away from the worst point guard in the Big East, and perhaps worst point guard on a Top 75 team...at least statistically.    Derrick is in his 3rd full year in the program...if this is as "good" as he's going to get, there is little sense in not developing the freshman you recruited to the program as well.

This is where you loose sanity in your argument IMHO.  Regardless of how bad you think Derrick Wilson is there is no way you should expect a lightly recruited 4th string PG to be getting 15-20 minutes.  And just because he can't get those minutes over DeWil doesn't mean he goes on the scrap heap.  Remember the pecking order before the season was DeWil, DuWil, JWil, then Dawson.  Dawson could very well have been recruited because Buzz thought he had raw talent but needed a year or two of grooming before he was ready to roll out there.  Current capability is not necessarily indicative of future performance especially as freshmen
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CTWarrior

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #30 on: January 06, 2014, 12:11:32 PM »
CT, there is a way out of the dilemma.   Start Todd or JJJ for Juan.   The offense looked so good against DePaul down the stretch because having Jamil, Todd, and Davante out there opened space for Jake.   Putting a second offensive threat out there to start the game creates space for Oxtule, and can create just enough help to get Jake open looks.   

That does improve the offense, but a defensive alignment of Gardner, Mayo, Thomas and the Wilsons will be troublesome, particularly on the defensive boards.  And it doesn't change the 4 on 5 dynamic on offense, just that the 4 are better.  The proposal does make good good sense, but like I said, it is not a good solution, just one of the best of the not so good solutions.
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NersEllenson

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #31 on: January 06, 2014, 12:13:33 PM »
I'd not read this article from PT before. Thanks for sharing.

Having said that, I think the PT analysis is wrong. The short version is that the PT analysis is not an apples to apples comparison with the Hanner analysis. To complicate it, the Hanner analysis isn't exactly clear.

I still think that Buzz plays freshmen less than other coaches.

Sugar, can you provide updated season efficiency ratings on the team?
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

NersEllenson

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #32 on: January 06, 2014, 12:16:48 PM »
This is where you loose sanity in your argument IMHO.  Regardless of how bad you think Derrick Wilson is there is no way you should expect a lightly recruited 4th string PG to be getting 15-20 minutes.  And just because he can't get those minutes over DeWil doesn't mean he goes on the scrap heap.  Remember the pecking order before the season was DeWil, DuWil, JWil, then Dawson.  Dawson could very well have been recruited because Buzz thought he had raw talent but needed a year or two of grooming before he was ready to roll out there.  Current capability is not necessarily indicative of future performance especially as freshmen

This is a fair point, and one I can agree with - my only frustration is that even if recruited as a 3rd string PG, Dawson truly hasn't been worse than Derrick, or if you want to split hairs, perhaps you could say he's been slightly worse.  My contention is that with the disparity that small between a guy 6 months into the program and a guy 3 years in the program with experience in roughly 40 games prior to his season - it shouldn't even be a debate...or questionable as to who's better - and if there is that question - you have little to lose if you get game experience for your freshman...and in so doing, he might just surprise the coaching staff and spark the team that desperately needs one.  If he doesn't, you lose nothing, return him to DNP status, and wait till next year..
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

tower912

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #33 on: January 06, 2014, 12:42:01 PM »
That does improve the offense, but a defensive alignment of Gardner, Mayo, Thomas and the Wilsons will be troublesome, particularly on the defensive boards.  And it doesn't change the 4 on 5 dynamic on offense, just that the 4 are better.  The proposal does make good good sense, but like I said, it is not a good solution, just one of the best of the not so good solutions.

Or, it is time to start Deonte in place of Juan.     I see Otule still starting, as he can get a few points on offense and rebounds well.   Jake and Derrick both rebound better than they should, so I don't see as big a let down on the defensive boards as you do.  I just think that the starting lineup needs one more attacking offensive player.   I would prefer Todd as a 3rd guard starting to spread the floor and have someone who can get into the lane starting.   He gets into the lane and suddenly Jamil and Jake have catch and shoot 3 opportunities.  Derrick doesn't look as bad because the defense isn't sloughing off elsewhere, he gets into the lane and makes the defense move just a little and suddenly the offense is in sync.   
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Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #34 on: January 06, 2014, 01:30:06 PM »
I'd not read this article from PT before. Thanks for sharing.

Having said that, I think the PT analysis is wrong. The short version is that the PT analysis is not an apples to apples comparison with the Hanner analysis. To complicate it, the Hanner analysis isn't exactly clear.

I still think that Buzz plays freshmen less than other coaches.

Rats.

Well, I'll leave it for you and the PT guys to hash it out.

IMO, Buzz does play guys in the early part of the season, but has always shortened his bench quite a bit in conference play. I've actually never loved his rotations, but the results have been good, so I've always just deferred to Buzz's judgement.

Also, I don't know how you account for this, but Jae, DJO and Buycks all played a lot in their first seasons. While they aren't frosh, certainly they still had steep learning curves to learn MU's system, so first year players do have an opportunity to get minutes... but they have to earn them.


 

tower912

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #35 on: January 06, 2014, 01:35:18 PM »
Check out the PT article regarding Burton's playing time.  He's getting 18.3 mpg over his last 8.   Good for a frosh without a position.   If you read the article, you gain insight as to why his playing time is increasing, but not JJJ or JD.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

ATL MU Warrior

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #36 on: January 06, 2014, 01:51:18 PM »
This is a fair point, and one I can agree with - my only frustration is that even if recruited as a 3rd string PG, Dawson truly hasn't been worse than Derrick, or if you want to split hairs, perhaps you could say he's been slightly worse.  My contention is that with the disparity that small between a guy 6 months into the program and a guy 3 years in the program with experience in roughly 40 games prior to his season - it shouldn't even be a debate...or questionable as to who's better - and if there is that question - you have little to lose if you get game experience for your freshman...and in so doing, he might just surprise the coaching staff and spark the team that desperately needs one.  If he doesn't, you lose nothing, return him to DNP status, and wait till next year..
But it's not a debate or questionable as to who is better.  That's the whole point. 

Avenue Commons

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #37 on: January 06, 2014, 03:59:34 PM »
Marquette is now 9-6 with 3 Ls to No. 3 Ohio State, No. 4 Wisconsin, No. 21 San Diego State and a 4th to Creighton in Omaha. 1-1 in conference. Put me in the "the worst is behind us" camp.

Like to see more of Mayo.
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The Equalizer

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #38 on: January 06, 2014, 04:17:34 PM »
This is where you loose sanity in your argument IMHO.  Regardless of how bad you think Derrick Wilson is there is no way you should expect a lightly recruited 4th string PG to be getting 15-20 minutes.  And just because he can't get those minutes over DeWil doesn't mean he goes on the scrap heap.  Remember the pecking order before the season was DeWil, DuWil, JWil, then Dawson.  Dawson could very well have been recruited because Buzz thought he had raw talent but needed a year or two of grooming before he was ready to roll out there.  Current capability is not necessarily indicative of future performance especially as freshmen

Let's assume you're right on this. 

Why take another HS senior who by all reports was even more raw and needed even more grooming than Duane Wilson? Why not go with a JUCo transfer or a graduate transfer?   

It seems rather unbelievable that in September of 2012 Buzz had seen enough of Derrick Wilson and Duane Wilson to know neither would be good enough take over as PG gap in the fall of 2013, but that John Dawson was the most credible option to fill that gap.

NersEllenson

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #39 on: January 07, 2014, 01:15:50 AM »
But it's not a debate or questionable as to who is better.  That's the whole point. 

It's not?  You are going to argue that Derrick Wilson is better than John Dawson, based on what?  Derrick's numbers are about as awful as you can get.  Give Dawson 30 minutes of run at the point, and I highly doubt he'd perform worse than Derrick - it is next to impossible to play more poorly than Derrick has.  Sorry ATL, but that's just the truth.  But, I guess 2 of 6 from the Free Throw line, 0-1 from the field, and 3 assists and 2 turnovers against the worst team in the Big East in 31 minutes of action is a stat line you feel would be hard to exceed??  Cmon Man.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #40 on: January 07, 2014, 06:44:39 AM »
It's not?  You are going to argue that Derrick Wilson is better than John Dawson, based on what?  Derrick's numbers are about as awful as you can get.  Give Dawson 30 minutes of run at the point, and I highly doubt he'd perform worse than Derrick - it is next to impossible to play more poorly than Derrick has.  Sorry ATL, but that's just the truth.  But, I guess 2 of 6 from the Free Throw line, 0-1 from the field, and 3 assists and 2 turnovers against the worst team in the Big East in 31 minutes of action is a stat line you feel would be hard to exceed??  Cmon Man.
Then you should really send Buzz another email because he obviously agrees with me.  Dawson will be lucky to get 30 minutes the rest of the season.  There must be a reason for that and the reason is that Buzz thinks Derrick is better.  This isn't that hard Ners. 

Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #41 on: January 07, 2014, 09:32:23 AM »
It's not?  You are going to argue that Derrick Wilson is better than John Dawson, based on what? 

If Dawson is equal or better than Wilson, why is Jamil the back-up PG?

augoman

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #42 on: January 07, 2014, 09:56:35 AM »
I think the flaw in the stats is the lack of consideration for the combination on the floor.  If all Todd's minutes come with Jamil at point and Deonte at the 3, Davante at the 4, I would think the points per minute SHOULD be higher than the points given. 

NersEllenson

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #43 on: January 07, 2014, 10:05:36 AM »
If Dawson is equal or better than Wilson, why is Jamil the back-up PG?


That's a good question - didn't seem to work out so well against DePaul.  Dawson hasn't shown himself to be more turnover prone than Derrick, nor being a poor defender.  Dawson must be God awful in practice apparently.  Or Buzz is just hyper loyal to Derrick and convinced Derrick is the best option, even given his less than decent stats.  This one is a real head scratcher to me.  First time I've second guessed Buzz on anything.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

Wojo'sMojo

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #44 on: January 07, 2014, 10:28:22 AM »
That's a good question - didn't seem to work out so well against DePaul.  Dawson hasn't shown himself to be more turnover prone than Derrick, nor being a poor defender.  Dawson must be God awful in practice apparently.  Or Buzz is just hyper loyal to Derrick and convinced Derrick is the best option, even given his less than decent stats.  This one is a real head scratcher to me.  First time I've second guessed Buzz on anything.

I'm going to go with hyper loyal to Derrick. There is absolutely no way that Dawson would not be able to match or exceed Derrick's production given the same playing time. If he was unable to, we really wasted a scholarship as we are about as bad as we can get at the pg spot right now and have nowhere to go but up. I have always loved Buzz and still do, but sometimes I feel like my head is going to explode with some of the decisions he's making this year...Namely Derrick's playing time and JJJ's lack of.

NersEllenson

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #45 on: January 07, 2014, 10:43:24 AM »
I'm going to go with hyper loyal to Derrick. There is absolutely no way that Dawson would not be able to match or exceed Derrick's production given the same playing time. If he was unable to, we really wasted a scholarship as we are about as bad as we can get at the pg spot right now and have nowhere to go but up. I have always loved Buzz and still do, but sometimes I feel like my head is going to explode with some of the decisions he's making this year...Namely Derrick's playing time and JJJ's lack of.

Totally agree with all points.  Still think Buzz is best thing to happen to MU since Al for sure.....just wish he'd roll Dawson out for a few games of 25 minutes and at least get good handle on how he'd do in a game situation, and how the team would perform. 

Only thing I can conclude is that like last year with Lockett - when many were calling for Lockett to be benched - that by the end of the year, the loyalty paid off and Lockett made solid contributions to the team in March.  Suspect Buzz is hoping like hell the same will happen with Derrick - yet I think it is far more likely given Derrick's position of PG and what he has shown thus far.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #46 on: January 07, 2014, 10:45:46 AM »
That's a good question - didn't seem to work out so well against DePaul.  Dawson hasn't shown himself to be more turnover prone than Derrick, nor being a poor defender.  Dawson must be God awful in practice apparently.  Or Buzz is just hyper loyal to Derrick and convinced Derrick is the best option, even given his less than decent stats.  This one is a real head scratcher to me.  First time I've second guessed Buzz on anything.

Truthfully, Dawson hasn't been awful in games (he's better than Bart Miller!), but the sample size is pretty tiny.

However, I trust that the coaching staff sees the players enough to know who should play.

I find it hard to believe that MU has some sort of secret weapon on the bench in Dawson.

I remember when everybody was excited about Niv Berkowitz because MU was DYING for some back-up PG help. "He's gotta be better than Hanley or Champman" we all thought. Turns out, he wasn't.

Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #47 on: January 07, 2014, 10:48:01 AM »
Totally agree with all points.  Still think Buzz is best thing to happen to MU since Al for sure.....just wish he'd roll Dawson out for a few games of 25 minutes and at least get good handle on how he'd do in a game situation, and how the team would perform.  

EDIT:

Forget it. I've spent far too much time on this topic. If somebody actually cares, they can read one of the 50 other posts I've made about John Dawson.

New Years resolution: Don't say the same sh*t over and over on a message board.

« Last Edit: January 07, 2014, 10:52:31 AM by Guns n Ammo »

Wojo'sMojo

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Re: +/- DePaul Game
« Reply #48 on: January 07, 2014, 03:08:47 PM »
EDIT:

Forget it. I've spent far too much time on this topic. If somebody actually cares, they can read one of the 50 other posts I've made about John Dawson.

New Years resolution: Don't say the same sh*t over and over on a message board.



I'll admit that I have commented in numerous John Dawson threads/Derrick Wilson threads. This is a fun topic to discuss because it bears heavy consequences...the main key to our season I believe. I personally think that with Wilson as our main pg option we will be destined for the NIT. I hope I'm wrong and will enjoy another Golden Eagles tourney bid! However, I don't see it happening. If Derrick is our best option at pg which he may be, im gonna hope to win the NIT and start fresh next year.

 

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