US Economy thread

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

China has bought less US debt over the last ten years, and that has been made up for by the UK and Ireland... as well as more domestic debt.

Either way, China in a recession is terrible news for the world.  The economy is global and a downturn there will impact everyone.

I saw it on my November customer visits in Asia.  A customer in Malaysia told me Chinese companies comprised a large portion of their business and RFQs were down 80%.  My sales to this customer are down by an equal % amount.
I also heard Chinese companies are selling hard and very inexpensive because they have extreme amounts of capacity right now.

[Goose]

China is a very attractive place to buying from at the moment.

[MU82]

From Seeking Alpha:

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, rose 0.4% M/M in January, matching the +0.4% expected and accelerating from +0.1% prior (revised from +0.2%), the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday.

The report also showed that consumer spending slowed in January, while personal income rose more than expected.

On a year-over-year basis, core PCE, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, climbed 2.8%, also the same as economists had estimated, but cooled slightly from the 2.9% pace in December.

The numbers indicated little progress in the Federal Reserve's drive to push down inflation to its 2% goal. However, seasonality plays a factor in the January numbers.

"The Fed will look right through the turn-of-the-year seasonal influenced data & policy will remain on track for a June rate cut," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US via X. "We were not part of the crew that was forecasting a March cut with 6 cuts overall. Our forecast was always June with 4 cuts this year."

The PCE Price Index, which includes food and energy, increased 0.3% M/M, matching the consensus estimate, and rising from the 0.1% increase in December (revised from +0.2%).

+2.4% Y/Y vs. +2.4% expected and +2.6% prior.

Surprisingly, personal Income climbed 1.0% M/M, far more than the +0.4% expected and +0.3% in December, according to the BEA.

Consumer spending appeared to slow from an exceptionally strong December, with personal outlays rising 0.2% M/M, the same as the consensus, and less than the 0.7% increase in the previous month.

RSM's Brusuelas sees "sustained goods deflation" as the big story in the PCE numbers. Prices for goods declined 0.5% Y/Y, with durable goods dropping 2.4%.

Services prices increased 3.9% Y/Y, significantly cooler than the 5.1% rate in June and July.

[Uncle Rico]

The price of conflict diamonds are out of control

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1763328569886052844?s=20

Covid relief was a great idea!

[jesmu84]

https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1763328569886052844?s=20

Covid relief was a great idea!

Sure. But no one wants to work anymore

[SoCalEagle]

Jes, would you rather our GDP numbers be lower?  Our friend Sultan shares some good news about our robust economy and that's your best reply?  C'mon now. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Pretty sure he was joking.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

Your posting history suggests that's incredibly doubtful.

    No doubt to a closed mind

[MU82]

From the Wall Street Journal:

Jamie Dimon warned of an economic disaster that never came. The JPMorgan CEO is only one of a number of high-profile investors and economists who predicted a recession was coming. They were way off. They underestimated the impact of government stimulus and the resilience of consumers and businesses. And they were too skeptical of the Federal Reserve’s ability to push inflation lower without sparking a recession.

[Skatastrophy]

From the Wall Street Journal:

Jamie Dimon warned of an economic disaster that never came. The JPMorgan CEO is only one of a number of high-profile investors and economists who predicted a recession was coming. They were way off. They underestimated the impact of government stimulus and the resilience of consumers and businesses. And they were too skeptical of the Federal Reserve’s ability to push inflation lower without sparking a recession.

JPow said it was transitory. Never bet against JPow.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Dimon is still very cautious BTW

[Skatastrophy]

Dimon is still very cautious BTW

"Investing should be a permanent thing. Save, invest. Save, invest. Guessing at market tops, market bottoms – that is a complete loser's game. I've never seen anyone win at it. The smartest investor in the world, Warren Buffett, would say that is not the way to invest." - Jamie Dimon

[MU82]

"Investing should be a permanent thing. Save, invest. Save, invest. Guessing at market tops, market bottoms – that is a complete loser's game. I've never seen anyone win at it. The smartest investor in the world, Warren Buffett, would say that is not the way to invest." - Jamie Dimon

Agree with every word of that.

Dimon is still very cautious BTW

Agree with that, too. Probably prudent to be cautious when a market has been hitting new tops and a few stocks (led by one factor - AI) have been running wild.

But the average investor, as Dimon said in the quote Ska posted, shouldn't worry about the ups and downs of the market. Folks should just invest in high-quality companies (or good low-cost funds that hold high-quality companies) all the time. Those who have done so over the last (insert # of choice) years have been happy they did.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Dimon is still very cautious BTW

Eh, if we want the inside scoop of what Jamie really thinks we'll need to wait for MUFINY's report out of their next lunch.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

And the dentists weeped.

Wisconsin had record-high construction jobs in January
(and unemployment at 3.2%)
https://www.wpr.org/news/wisconsin-had-record-high-construction-jobs-in-january

"Economists, the state builders association and construction unions said the industry’s job growth could be tied to several factors. They cited Wisconsin’s unseasonably warm winter, stabilizing interest rates, a national construction boom and federal investments in the state’s infrastructure.

In January, construction spending nationally totaled $2.1 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to the Associated General Contractors of America. That’s down 0.2 percent from the previous month but 11.7 percent higher than in the same month of 2023.

“There’s a big boom in the building of commercial (properties). Not commercial as in stores, but factories,” he said. “I don’t know how much of that is in Wisconsin, but nationwide, that’s a very big factor. There’s a lot of construction going on.”

Anthony Anastasi, business agent for the Iron Workers Local 383 union based in Madison, said federal investments like the Inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan infrastructure law have also factored into the increase in state construction jobs.

Beyond the construction industry, the state also had a record 3.05 million Wisconsinites employed in January, while the state’s unemployment rate remained near record lows at 3.2 percent, according to the DWD."

[4everwarriors]

On da brite syde, gas went down a nickel inn my hood, hey?

[tower912]

Yeah, it would be nice if that Whiting refinery got back up to full speed and started pumping out the summer blend.

Taking 400k barrels a day out of the system for 6 weeks certainly does not help prices.

[4everwarriors]

Check out this article from USA TODAY:, hey?

Inflation data from CPI report shows sharper price gains: What it means for Fed rate cuts.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/03/12/cpi-report-march-2024-inflation-data/72934243007/

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Yes, notice the "sharper increase" at the end of this graph? Yes indeed.

You may need a microscope.



Work to do, inflation appears to be sticky here with a roaring economy.

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

Mopes gonna mope.

I have been seeing interesting lagging impacts from the higher inflationary environment in my industry in regards to materials coming through such as steel. Been hard to get a handle on.

[jesmu84]

PBS story on the economy data vs day to day:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/UoQYV9Ct4T0?si=wyujQg_RpNT9lGmP" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/UoQYV9Ct4T0?si=wyujQg_RpNT9lGmP</a>

[Skatastrophy]

Work to do, inflation appears to be sticky here with a roaring economy.

Nah. Just wait. 3% inflation is great. In fact higher inflation than that is great for the government and megacorps, but the small people complain too much about it so they have to try to keep inflation low-ish.

3% and keep telling the small folks that rate cuts are coming "soon" is pretty darn good

[MU82]

For those who prefer facts to feelings when it comes to inflation and other economic news ...

[Dr. Blackheart]

For those who prefer facts to feelings when it comes to inflation and other economic news ...

Had a $1 Hamm's (16 ounce draft) last night with my $8 all you can eat chicken wings meal out.