US Economy thread

[TSmith34, Inc.]

They are probably taking their cues from Warren Buffett, who goes to a Sears in Moline, IL on a Friday night, hangs out at the checkout in the men's underwear section, and then makes proclamations on the state of the entire U.S. economy.

[Goose]

Atl MU Warrior

Well, I am pretty sure that their previous carefree lifestyle was a help to the economy. Aside from them being business owners who have provided wages and benefits to 1000’s people over the past 50 years, they have shared their wealth to many places and have been outstanding supporters of the community.

I will pass on your thoughtful comments to them the next I am with them. My guess is it will be received with a hearty laugh. My only concern, I might be laughing too hard to get your thoughts out to them.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Atl MU Warrior

Well, I am pretty sure that their previous carefree lifestyle was a help to the economy. Aside from them being business owners who have provided wages and benefits to 1000’s people over the past 50 years, they have shared their wealth to many places and have been outstanding supporters of the community.

I will pass on your thoughtful comments to them the next I am with them. My guess is it will be received with a hearty laugh. My only concern, I might be laughing too hard to get your thoughts out to them.

That would be great. Please let me know what they say.

[Goose]

ATL Warrior

I think I would rather go on a cross country car ride with Fluff over continuing this conversation with you.

[dgies9156]

They are probably taking their cues from Warren Buffett, who goes to a Sears in Moline, IL on a Friday night, hangs out at the checkout in the men's underwear section, and then makes proclamations on the state of the entire U.S. economy.

Hey, be nice to Moline! It doesn't have a lot going for it, so a Sears store may be world class entertainment.

By the way, Warren Buffet lives in Omaha. That's just past the western frontier of Iowa. Moline is just off the eastern frontier of Iowa in the Quad Cities of Illinois and Iowa.

I seriously doubt Warren Buffet drives 350 miles to buy underwear at a Sears in the Quad Cities, assuming there are any left. If there are, it's probably at SouthPark Mall.

Didn't you study Iowa geography where you come from?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

ATL Warrior

I think I would rather go on a cross country car ride with Fluff over continuing this conversation with you.

Don’t worry. You’ll never get the invite.

[dgies9156]

The recent discussions, including those of my friend Brother Goose, as well as Brother MU and others who are just a bit to the left of center, are interesting. I share the view that the economy is improving and while I think we're still contending with the effects of inflation, the Federal Reserve deserves lots of credit for reopening the Paul Voelker playbook.

People feel they have less money largely because interest rates are still high, which affects larger purchases and real estate purchases. Energy costs, particularly gasoline, are still far higher than they were four years ago and that's taking a huge bite out of people's budgets. Add to that the increases in the cost of food, largely driven by fuel costs to produce and transport it as well as raw materials to produce it, and people's expectations are still restrained. They will be until real productivity increases.

Much of the recent debate in this room has centered on the economic impacts of Covid-19. I actually believe that social psychologists and economists will be studying Covid-19 for decades to try to better understand hysteria, political and economic reaction. We had a perfect storm in 2020, ranging from a media that had extensively reported on the 1919 Spanish Flu Pandemic and thought they new everything -- and were working to keep a story alive -- to lots of government officials who had an agenda and a polarized populous without a respected, objective source of information to which to turn. We had a President who much of the country believed was bats*it crazy and would do anything anyway necessary to chase him from office.

We talked about President Trump in this room as well. I firmly believe one incident cost him the 2020 election. It was about messaging and he blew it horribly. It was the night he came home from Walter Reed after being treated for Covid-19. If the President has faced the camera, with appropriate distancing, and told the American people that the disease was horrible and that he had compassion for those who've suffered with it, that he was grateful for the fine care he received and that he wanted the same care for every American and then ordered the government to redouble its efforts to conquer this horrible disease, he would have been re-elected. Instead, he was his usual narsacistic self, arrogant as always. I believe the American people saw that and said, "are you kidding me?"

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Hey, be nice to Moline! It doesn't have a lot going for it, so a Sears store may be world class entertainment.

By the way, Warren Buffet lives in Omaha. That's just past the western frontier of Iowa. Moline is just off the eastern frontier of Iowa in the Quad Cities of Illinois and Iowa.

I seriously doubt Warren Buffet drives 350 miles to buy underwear at a Sears in the Quad Cities, assuming there are any left. If there are, it's probably at SouthPark Mall.

Didn't you study Iowa geography where you come from?

I was in Moline last May. I will say this--it is infinitely nicer than Rock Island. Though, I stumbled upon a brewery in Rock Island, Radicle Effect, that was exceptional.

I didn't get to experience the rest of the Quad Cities, alas.

[dgies9156]

I was in Moline last May. I will say this--it is infinitely nicer than Rock Island. Though, I stumbled upon a brewery in Rock Island, Radicle Effect, that was exceptional.

I didn't get to experience the rest of the Quad Cities, alas.

Hell is infinitely nicer than Rock Island, though the downtown entertainment district is fun, which is what you found.

Bettendorf, an Iowa Quad, used to bill itself as Iowa’s most exciting city! Iowa’s most exciting city was and is a bedroom suburb!

You didn’t miss much!


Full disclosure: I lived there a long time ago. A bad job elsewhere is still celebrated as liberation day!

[Goose]

Fluff

For the record, I have never said the economy stinks. I do not believe it is crazy robust by any means, but never said it stinks. I think it is a difficult time for more people than most want to acknowledge, that is my point.

[jesmu84]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/21/us/politics/grocery-prices-pandemic-ftc.html

How bout that?

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

Nothing tells me the Kroger Albertsons merger is a bad idea quite like that. Asset divesture isn’t really a good solution to it either.

[Uncle Rico]

Nothing tells me the Kroger Albertsons merger is a bad idea quite like that. Asset divesture isn’t really a good solution to it either.

Kroger sucks

[MU82]

For the record, I have never said the economy stinks. I do not believe it is crazy robust by any means, but never said it stinks. I think it is a difficult time for more people than most want to acknowledge, that is my point.

And for the record, I never said it wasn’t a difficult time for many, Goose.

Even in the best economy ever - and this is far from that - millions are struggling, living paycheck to paycheck or worse.

The economy is good. Not great. Not record-setting. But, by most metrics, good.

Jobs are available. Wages have been rising faster than inflation. Consumers are confident enough to spend. New businesses are opening. The stock market is near an all-time high. The most recent earnings season showed companies growing revenue and EPS.

And yes, many people are struggling. As is always the case in any economy.

[jesmu84]

And for the record, I never said it wasn’t a difficult time for many, Goose.

Even in the best economy ever - and this is far from that - millions are struggling, living paycheck to paycheck or worse.

The economy is good. Not great. Not record-setting. But, by most metrics, good.

Jobs are available. Wages have been rising faster than inflation. Consumers are confident enough to spend. New businesses are opening. The stock market is near an all-time high. The most recent earnings season showed companies growing revenue and EPS.

And yes, many people are struggling. As is always the case in any economy.

What's the timeline for this statement?

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

Kroger sucks

Worst tomatoes I’ve ever tasted

[MU82]

From the NYT's DealBook newsletter ...

Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to JPMorgan Chase shareholders has just been published. The widely read note offers a glimpse of his views on not just business, but the economy at a “pivotal moment for America and the free world,” with deep divisions at home and global uncertainty.

Here are some highlights.

The economy is resilient but the government underpinning it is a red flag. Consumers are spending and investors expect a soft landing. But Dimon warns that the economy is being fueled by government spending and rising deficits. “The deficits today are even larger and occurring in boom times — not as the result of a recession — and they have been supported by quantitative easing, which was never done before the great financial crisis,” he writes.

Inflation may be sticky. “These markets seem to be pricing in at a 70% to 80% chance of a soft landing — modest growth along with declining inflation and interest rates,” Dimon writes, adding that the odds are actually a lot lower.

Global uncertainty is another dark cloud. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East could further “disrupt energy and food markets, migration, and military and economic relationships.” That shock coincides with a surge in public investment to power a green transition, restructure supply chains and trade relationships, and boost health care spending.

Industrial policy is needed but should be limited and targeted. Dimon says the U.S. must be tough with China, but engage with Beijing. That includes establishing independence on supplies of materials crucial to national security, like rare earth, semiconductors and 5G infrastructure. (According to Dimon, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPs Act get it right.)

Dimon warns about the deep political divisions at home. Dimon doesn’t explicitly weigh in on the election (his public backing for some of Donald Trump’s economic policies caused a stir at Davos in January), but said the U.S. is grappling with “highly charged, emotional and political” issues centering around the border security crisis and the “fraying of the American dream.”

On Basel 3 endgame: Dimon reiterated his concerns that many of the proposed banking rules are “flawed and poorly calibrated.”

On corporate governance: Dimon argues that proxy advisory firms like ISS have become too influential (he recently backed Disney in its fight against Nelson Peltz). He is opposed to recent efforts to split chairman and C.E.O. roles and thinks the universal proxy “makes it easier to put poorly qualified directors on a board.”

FWIW ...

I think Dimon is a very good CEO and I am a JPM shareholder. I share many of his concerns, though I also believe that many of them involve threats (or perceived threats) to his industry and company, and therefore might not be objective. Also notable is that Dimon has been sounding warnings about the economy for 2+ years, predicting recessions and possible economic catastrophe, and has been wrong so far.

Eventually, he and other recession forecasters will be right ... because history has shown us that there is always a "next recession." It comes and then it goes, and the economy stabilizes and the stock market rises, usually for several years. And then there is another "next recession," and so on.

[Jockey]

F Jamie Dimon.

[MU82]

F Jamie Dimon.

He's always spoken highly of you!

[Skatastrophy]

He's always spoken highly of you!

That's funny, he never speaks highly of anything

[tower912]

He would fit right in here.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

He would fit right in here.

Is willie actually Jaimie Dimon?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

"Powell has his head up his ass"
   ---Dung Dimon

[jesmu84]

Half of homeowners and renters struggle to afford their housing payments, a recent Redfin survey found.
Roughly 1 in 5 people who struggle to afford housing have skipped meals and/or worked extra hours to help cover costs, while about 1 in 6 have delayed medical care.
Skipping vacations was the most common sacrifice among white and Asian respondents, while Black respondents were most likely to work extra hours.
A surprisingly high share of millennials—most of whom are not retired—have dipped into retirement savings so they can afford housing.

https://www.redfin.com/news/homebuying-sacrifices-survey-2024/

[MU82]

"Powell has his head up his ass"
   ---Dung Dimon

That literally made me laugh out loud. Thanks!