Kolek planning to go pro
We are favored by 8 in KenPom. 78% win probability...which is our highest win probability the rest of the season. We've all been told by the Intelligencia how impossible it is to win on the road this year in college hoops.Enough with the chicken little crap. Expect to win. We should. End of story.
You do understand the premise of the thread, yes? Oh and, ahem...
Don't make my comment out to be something it isn't Nickledimer. This has nothing to do with coach, state of program, etc since I've been a fan I've dreaded SJUIn 2013 we needed a buzzer beater in OT to beat St Johns when we were on top of our game. In 2010 we needed a miracle jimmy butler fade away. We got $hit rocked by them at home in 2011, got swept in 2014 once in 2xOT and once not even competitive. 09 and 12 we won very convincingly.2 easy wins, 3 tough wins, 1 tough loss, 2 blow out losses. Under buzz I dreaded them to. Wojo's teams have not stacked up great against SJU getting swept in 2015, winning 3 close ones in 2016, splitting blow outs in 2017, splitting in 2018, getting blown out twice and blowing them out once in 2019. 2 easy wins, 3 tough wins, 5 blow out losses. So I've dreaded them under Wojo as well.
This. Dreading a game like this is an indictment on the state of the program in my opinion.
St John’s was a game last year that the Hausers struggled defensively with their quickness. We are better defensively now. The blowout in the BET, they had to play back to back, MU was fresher.
The intention of starting this thread was cover your ass material by Cheeks, so he can rationalize a potential loss to a team we have no business losing to tomorrow night. Now, if he sincerely feels nervous about this game, well, that sure illustrates a lack of confidence in our coach/program here in Year 6.P.S. I personally don't think Duke or Kentucky fans worry too much about losing games on their home court against the 77th ranked team in the country with a coach in his first year on the job.
This was a nightmare matchup for us last year. SJU played 5 out with Ponds, Heron, Simon, Figueroa, Clark. 4 of our 5 starters were Howard, Hauser, Hauser, John. Theo was forced to play outside due to the 5 out which killed our rim protection. The two Hausers didn't have the footspeed to guard any of the Johnnies except Clark, who Theo was already guarding. Howard couldn't handle Ponds. Sacar was the only guy who could guard anyone.We match up a a lot better this year. I'm guessing Howard will spend most of his time on Rutherford and Williams. We have Kobe, Sacar and Bailey to throw on Dunn, Heron, and Figourua. Jayce and Theo can cover Roberts when he's in and Champagnie when he's Roberts is out. Roberts presents no outside threat at all.I do expect it will get ugly at times as SJU forces a ton of turnovers and they are far more long and athletic than Georgetown. But the matchups are far better this year and SJU is shooting 28% on 3s compared to 35% last year. I'd expect a win.
TAMUI do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.
One positive is we've really improved our turnover rate as the season has gone on. We're down to 18.5% which is 118th in the country. I believe we were in the 300s at one point this year.In conference games, we're 2nd best (15.7%) behind SJU (14%).
This game makes me nervous not because I don't think we will win (I think we win by double digits) but because it is high risk, low reward. Beat St. John's at home and no one cares. Lose to St. John's at home and that's a significant red mark on your tournament resume. And if you have been paying attention at all, upsets are in vogue this season.I like that their best big man isn't accurate outside of 5 feet. I hate that they sometimes go small and put freshman stretch 4 Julian Champagnie at the 5. Wojo has to let him shoot and tell Theo and Jayce to stay home when they are defending him.I think Bailey can handle Figueroa and Sacar/McEwen can handle Heron. I would purposefully play a little looser on Rasheem Dun when he is in the game and try to force St. John's to put the ball in his hands. The couple times I have seen Dunn play he tends to attack the rim with reckless abandon and no clear plan. I think John and Johnson could eat him alive if we can tempt him in.What I don't like is that SJU is a hard team to game plan for. Wojo's gameplanning strength is coming up with plans to shut down or limit top scorers. SJU's roster is a bit all over the place. Every one in their rotation is capable of putting up a goose egg or a double digit scoring effort. Can't game plan for any specific players because any of them could have a great or off night.
We don't appear to be too confident/comfortable handling full court pressure.
I agree, MU does not appear confident with the press break... But on the other hand they've generally been successful getting it across, and getting into the offense.I *think* they're being deliberate with it, and trying to avoid the turnover vs going for the easy bucket.
I hate St. John's.