Morgan Stanley Says Tesla To Invent Driverless Car First, Worth More Than F, GM

[brewcity77]

All I could think as I read the title and beginning of this thread was "What the F is Telsa"?!?

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'd love to see these same predictions about electric cars from just 5 years ago, solar panels, 3D TVs, HD DVDs, Blackberries, etc.   

[MUsoxfan]

Quiet the opposite.  See the first post ...  Wall Street is betting many billions that driverless is coming and coming really fast.

See this

Autonomous cars will destroy millions of jobs and reshape the US economy by 2025
http://qz.com/403628/autonomous-cars-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025/



10 million driverless cars on the road by 2020
http://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5



THE COMING DRIVERLESS CAR AND ITS IMPACT ON REAL ESTATE
Why Driverless Cars Will Change the World While Driverless Real Estate Investing Will Leave You Behind
http://www.necanet.org/docs/default-source/2014-NECA-IBEW-Employee-Benefits-Conference/6-jeff-kanne-driverless-cars.pdf?sfvrsn=2
This was prepared by National Restate Advisors with almost 10 million square feet and $2 billion under management.  They are concerned that driverless car will have a big impact of their portfolio of properties.



http://blogs.reuters.com/james-saft/2015/05/28/a-self-driven-road-to-capital-destruction-james-saft/
What happens to an industry which develops a new offering so fantastic that ownership of its
product is cut in half?  Investors in the carmakers may in coming decades find out, as the advent of driverless cars disrupts (there really is no better word) an industry already suffering from over-investment and poor long-term performance.  Cars that drive themselves will do just that, allowing owners to keep a given vehicle working more of the time. That will lead to a more than doubling in annual mileage per car over the next 25 years but bring vehicles per household down by nearly 50 percent, argues Barclays auto analyst Brian Johnson.



The Self-Driving Car and the Coming Revolution in Auto Insurance
Google seems to be laying the groundwork to underwrite its own policies, displacing traditional carriers.
By Valerie Raburn
June 7, 2015 6:18 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-self-driving-car-and-the-coming-revolution-in-auto-insurance-1433715535



How a driverless car sees the road
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_urmson_how_a_driverless_car_sees_the_road



Bill Gates says the pace of innovation is as fast as ever
Philantropist says technology is starting to outstrip what was imaginable in his youth
Feb 26, 2015 4:33 AM ET

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bill-gates-says-the-pace-of-innovation-is-as-fast-as-ever-1.2972866

Microsoft founder and billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates says the pace of technological innovation is as fast as ever and shows no signs of slowing down.

"We're finally at the point where, in a few areas, it's starting to outstrip what was even imaginable in my youth," Gates told CBC’s chief correspondent Peter Mansbridge in a sit-down interview Wednesday.

Gates predicts a future where people will work seamlessly between devices through cloud-based computing: "Its impact on how we bank, how we communicate, how we entertain ourselves — we are just at the beginning of that," he said in the interview, which airs Saturday on Mansbridge One on One.

Computing will continue to expand to different devices and will use more natural interfaces, Gates said. “Speech is getting really very good, handwriting recognition is very good,” he said. "It will be this personal agent that's very, very powerful."



Bill Gates thinks Uber has the best shot at self-driving cars
by  Jonathan Chew
June 25, 2015, 11:28 AM EDT

https://fortune.com/2015/06/25/bill-gates-self-driving-cars/

Driverless cars have become a moonshot project for tech companies around the world, and Microsoft’s MSFT -1.55% Co-founder and world-leading philanthropist Bill Gates believes there’s one company that will rule the space.

In a conversation with Financial Times Editor Lionel Barber at an event in London Wednesday, Gates shared his thoughts on issues ranging from the global economy to robots to Silicon Valley. Gates said a real tipping point for change in driving will come from self-driving cars, calling it “the real rubicon.” And Uber is primed to take the lead, he added.

Only a couple of those articles are relevant to your argument and the one you hang your hat on(qz.com)is total bullcrap as it's nothing but unsubstantiated speculation. Not to mention being unrealistically ambitious at best, and written by a "blogger".

A government mandated system of driverless cars which you propose, (and seems awfully communist) presents a multitude of problems that I haven't read answers for:

Logistics
Practicality
Economics
Privacy
etc

[Tugg Speedman]

Only a couple of those articles are relevant to your argument and the one you hang your hat on(qz.com)is total bullcrap as it's nothing but unsubstantiated speculation. Not to mention being unrealistically ambitious at best, and written by a "blogger".

A government mandated system of driverless cars which you propose, (and seems awfully communist) presents a multitude of problems that I haven't read answers for:

Logistics
Practicality
Economics
Privacy
etc

The "bullcrap blooger" is Zack Kanter.  He is one on Silicon Valley's big thinkers that probably makes more money in a day than most make in a year.

Zack Kanter earlier this year
Don't believe everything you think: how cognitive biases prevent us from accurately predicting the future (my TEDx)
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flinVCFYUjA …

What exact do you want to substantiate?  Someone's opinion about the future?

No one ever said anything about Government mandated system of driverless cars.  In fact it is the opposite, the Govenrment will be losing control to these systems (which is a good thing).

[MUsoxfan]

No one ever said anything about Government mandated system of driverless cars.  In fact it is the opposite, the Govenrment will be losing control to these systems (which is a good thing).

YOU said it yourself

"Humans driving cars will be in dedicated recreational areas.  Think horses.  We banned them from street and now we ride them in parks or open spaces out west.  We will do the same with cars."

[Tugg Speedman]

YOU said it yourself

"Humans driving cars will be in dedicated recreational areas.  Think horses.  We banned them from street and now we ride them in parks or open spaces out west.  We will do the same with cars."

That's to get human drivers off the road.  It does not mean the Government will dictate exactly how these cars (systems) will work.

And why will they do that?  Think Uber.

Every city Government in the world is taking bribes from taxi companies to ban Uber.  They really want to in the worst way but are afraid to because Uber is so popular.  Ditto driverless cars.  When they arrive in mass, it is going to be impossible to stop it.  Governments are going to be forced to allow then in and change rules for them.

[GOO]

Heisenberg, these experts get one thing wrong on the insurance side.  Insurance companies will be negatively effected by driverless cars, no doubt, in a big way.  Insurance will NOT be the driving force for people to abandon their traditional cars for self driving cars.  Why?  I posted this in another thread.  Their is a race, due to money in politics, to lessen the insurance requirements needed to drive legally.  One of the first things Walker did when he got into office was to lower the minimum insurance needed in Wisconsin from 100K to 25K liability.  Regardless of how bad a driver you are or how old your car is, that 25K liability policy will still be cheap.

Why cheap?  For the obvious reasons that don't need to be stated, but also because these firms that are pushing this and getting laws changed also don't payout easily.  Hit someone and expect your cheap insurance company to compensate them up to the 25K.... don't expect it, they won't pay unless they are taken to court.. and who is going to take them to court when the max payout is 25K... not many lawyers.

Anyway, I am exciting about the future in this area that needs disrupting, big time!  But, these experts that think insurance will get to expensive for traditional cars don't see what is going on in the industry for people that will be driving the older cars. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

I've been in Dallas most of this week at a conference that included AT&T's connect car.  They had this SMU professor speak for an hour on many things, including driverless cars.  It was pretty fascinating.  He believes 10 years until they come out and actually perform the way they are supposed to.  As he said, being 90% good isn't good enough for the public psyche.  They want 100% good, even if 90% good is as good as the public. 

The liability issues for the manufacturers are a major concern right now.  How to address this.  From an insurance perspective, he believes that auto insurance will change, but people will still need to get auto insurance to cover for their driverless car and any damage it does to them or someone else.  Sure, the owner of the car can sue the manufacturer, but that doesn't take away from the fact that their will still be some liability concerns if the car isn't kept up properly for maintenance, etc, etc.

[Tugg Speedman]

I've been in Dallas most of this week at a conference that included AT&T's connect car.  They had this SMU professor speak for an hour on many things, including driverless cars.  It was pretty fascinating.  He believes 10 years until they come out and actually perform the way they are supposed to.  As he said, being 90% good isn't good enough for the public psyche.  They want 100% good, even if 90% good is as good as the public. 

The liability issues for the manufacturers are a major concern right now.  How to address this.  From an insurance perspective, he believes that auto insurance will change, but people will still need to get auto insurance to cover for their driverless car and any damage it does to them or someone else.  Sure, the owner of the car can sue the manufacturer, but that doesn't take away from the fact that their will still be some liability concerns if the car isn't kept up properly for maintenance, etc, etc.

What was his conclusion?

[mr.MUskie]

All I could think as I read the title and beginning of this thread was "What the F is Telsa"?!?

+1. Again and again.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Update


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/02/technology/personaltech/google-says-its-not-the-driverless-cars-fault-its-other-drivers.html?action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=MostPopularFB&version=Full&region=Marginalia&src=me&pgtype=article

[Tugg Speedman]

Update


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/02/technology/personaltech/google-says-its-not-the-driverless-cars-fault-its-other-drivers.html?action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=MostPopularFB&version=Full&region=Marginalia&src=me&pgtype=article

This is why humans will be banned from driving.  They are efficient killing machines behind the wheel.

[MUsoxfan]

This is why humans will be banned from driving.  They are efficient killing machines behind the wheel.

So you've twice said that this will be government mandated, but once said it wouldn't. Which is it?