Morgan Stanley Says Tesla To Invent Driverless Car First, Worth More Than F, GM

[Tugg Speedman]

Driverless is three years away according to this analyst.

If Telsa hits his target of $480, its market value would be $61 billion ... more than Ford ($50 billion now) and GM ($61 billion now).

Note that Telsa sells maybe 60,000 cars/year.  GM sells 2.2 million yet Telsa is poised to be more valuable than GM.

Telsa stock is UP 14% this year.

Ford and GM are having record selling years but their stocks are DOWN 5% and 10% respectively.

As I said in the Disney post, the market makes its own reality.  If enough investors believe like the Morgan Stanley analyst, money will come out of the "legacy car makers" hurting their ability to compete.  It will go to "driverless car makers" like Telsa giving them a huge war chest to make driverless happen.

Chicos, time for buzz cut, the "wind in your hair" driving home at 3MPH in rush hour traffic is numbered.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Morgan Stanley: Tesla will create driverless car fleets
Chris Woodyard, USA TODAY 12:44 p.m. EDT August 17, 2015

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/08/17/tesla-morgan-stanley-driverless/31852563/

A top automotive analyst predicts in a report Monday that Tesla Motors will embrace a future involving fleets of shared driverless cars and has raised his price target to $465 a share on the stock, up from the current $280.

Analyst Adam Jonas says Tesla has such a lead on connected, electric cars compared to rivals that it is likely to create a new division with a name like Tesla Mobility.

"We would be surprised if Tesla did not share formalized business plans on shared mobility within the next 12 to 18 months," he writes in a note to investors. "This could potentially be followed by commercial introduction in 2018."

Tesla shares were up almost 3.91% in midday trading, or $9.52 a share, to $252.67.

Not only did Jonas almost double his price target on the stock, but he says the business case is so compelling that some bulls might value Tesla shares as high as $611.

Jonas says the launch of a "Tesla Mobility 1.0 urban transport PODS (Position on Demand Service)" would come after introduction of the electric car maker's Model 3 in 2017, the car hat is aimed at having a lower cost and wider appeal. At present, Tesla makes only the Model S luxury electric sedan, with a new crossover, the Model X, due by the end of the year.

He says the new division is likely because it would be in keeping with Tesla's sustrightbility message. The Palo Alto, Calif.-based electric car company is also best positioned to embrace a future of driverless cars that serve multiple customers.

"Tesla has been the most outspoken auto company on the use of autonomous technology to improve inefficiencies and safety of today's road transport," Jonas writes. "100% of Tesla's cars are electric, connected, and able to "learn" through over-the-air firmware updates at any time. No other established automaker can claim this today."

There was no comment from Tesla on the note.

Jonas says a more compelling case can be made for electric vehicles when they are used in a shared, app-based environment. Consumers wouldn't have to buy expensive cars that languish in their home or work garages all day. They would simply call for a driverless car when they need one, which would make high use of the cars and thus would be a more efficient system.

Tesla's leadership in the precursors to driverless technology will become apparent when the Model X crossover starts deliveries. It will have a senosrs and software that Jonas says "could a new industry standard for driver-replacement technologies that could eventually find their way into high-utilization shared mobility models."

[ChicosBailBonds]

Tesla selling less cars than they promised this year, not delivering their SUV as promised, etc.  Yet people gravitate toward it.

http://qz.com/480580/tesla-investors-need-to-chill-out-for-a-couple-of-years/


At any rate, I'm not worried about driverless cars even becoming a fraction of the norm for a long long long time, as many of us here stated.

[jesmu84]

All of this investing on futures and potential and whatever else you want to call it has to be dangerous, right? Isn't this just market manipulation? I dunno. Feels funny for companies to have "market value" without actually being worth anywhere near that. And yes, I know that the "market" sets the "worth".

[JWags85]

Seems like MS has a large position in TSLA and didnt enjoy its recent battering and downgrade, I'm really a badger fan?

[Benny B]

Incidentally, I'm driving out to TRIC tomorrow. I'll let everyone know if I see any driverless cars ramming into each other.


Come to think if it, demolition derbies are going to be a lot more exciting with driverless cars.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I enjoy my commute

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

All of this investing on futures and potential and whatever else you want to call it has to be dangerous, right? Isn't this just market manipulation? I dunno. Feels funny for companies to have "market value" without actually being worth anywhere near that. And yes, I know that the "market" sets the "worth".

What's dangerous about it? The point of the financial markets are to allocate capital to fund future value. In this case, Elon Musk needs money to build a company which many people feel will be making way more money on in the future.

Every single company and employer required some level of investment. This is no different.

[GOO]

I look forward to the day, but I also know that it will take time. Yes, there will be a car on the market by 2020 that is self driving.  There are cares on the market now that are somewhat self driving on the highway.  But as has been mentioned over and over, it will take time to replace the cars that are selling now and cars that are 10 years old now. 
I sure hope Musk can pull off that Gen III Telsa, with self driving options, for under 40K.  That'll be my next care if he can do it.

[Tugg Speedman]

I look forward to the day, but I also know that it will take time. Yes, there will be a car on the market by 2020 that is self driving.  There are cares on the market now that are somewhat self driving on the highway. But as has been mentioned over and over, it will take time to replace the cars that are selling now and cars that are 10 years old now. 
I sure hope Musk can pull off that Gen III Telsa, with self driving options, for under 40K.  That'll be my next care if he can do it.

Correct, but the driverless industry will tell you that the change will be rapid because they project that insurance rates for driverless will plummet to a few hundred dollars a year while insurance rates for driver cars will soar to thousands a year.  This will not only accelerate the change to driverless, and cause a lot of auto insurance companies to go out of business.

[MUsoxfan]

Correct, but the driverless industry will tell you that the change will be rapid because they project that insurance rates for driverless will plummet to a few hundred dollars a year while insurance rates for driver cars will soar to thousands a year.  This will not only accelerate the change to driverless, and cause a lot of auto insurance companies to go out of business.

There's a lot wrong with that paragraph.

Please cite your sources on that. Something tells me that if you weren't making that up off the top of your head, you would have cut and pasted all the articles "proving you right" already

[Tugg Speedman]

There's a lot wrong with that paragraph.

Please cite your sources on that. Something tells me that if you weren't making that up off the top of your head, you would have cut and pasted all the articles "proving you right" already

Keep the snark on the political board where it belongs.

The source is me ... I am an expert on this stuff.

Tell me what you have a problem with and I will enlighten you.

To get you started ...

The Driverless Car, Officially, Is a Risk
How to set prices for casualty losses when the driver’s age and experience doesn’t matter?
By Theo Francis
March 3, 2015 7:28 p.m. ET

http://www.wsj.com/articles/will-the-driverless-car-upend-insurance-1425428891

Three insurance suppliers and an auto parts maker have warned in their most recent annual reports that driverless cars and the technology behind them could one day disrupt the way they do business.

The investor warnings aren’t meant to spell out an imminent threat. But their inclusion in the catch all “Risk Factors” section of corporate filings indicates that driverless cars are now close enough to reality that companies feel they need to flag the risks to their investors.

Cincinnati Financial Corp. , an Ohio-based insurer generating nearly a quarter of its premiums from commercial and consumer auto policies, warned in the annual report it filed Friday that its forecasts could be flawed because of, among other things, “Disruption of the insurance market caused by technology innovations such as driverless cars that could decrease consumer demand for insurance products.”

Mercury General Corp. , an auto insurer issuing most of its coverage in California, said in its annual report that “the advent of driverless cars and usage-based insurance could materially alter the way that automobile insurance is marketed, priced, and underwritten.”

Travelers Cos., one of the largest U.S. property-casualty insurers, said the technology has the potential to transform consumer demand, the way policies are priced, and the all-important patterns of crash frequency and severity that insurers use to predict their risks.

Insurers aren’t the only companies fretting. LKQ Corp. , a Chicago auto-parts maker, cited risks from the safety technologies that many see as leading the way to driverless cars. “If the number of vehicles involved in accidents declines or the number of cars being repaired declines, our business could suffer,” reads a heading in the annual report LKQ filed on Monday.

A spokesman for Mercury said its risk-factor disclosures aren’t meant to be predictions. A Travelers spokesman declined to comment, as did a spokeswoman for Cincinnati Financial.

A number of auto makers and Silicon Valley companies have driverless cars under development. Google Inc. has been testing its version for half a decade and said it could be on the roads within five years. Other companies worry regulatory concerns could hold them up into the next decade. Cost is another obstacle. But the technology is moving ahead.

The industry collected $107.4 billion in passenger car auto insurance premiums in 2013, the latest year for which figures were available, according to the Insurance Information Institute.

The automobile has been an omnipresent influence for decades, and the effects of taking the driver out of the equation could be just as far reaching. Insurers may sell fewer individual policies, or have to cover fewer accidents, but the more technologically advanced cars might be more costly to repair.

Self-driving cars could have other effects as well. Insurers expect car- and software-makers to face litigation when crashes do happen, shifting at least some of the expense from consumer auto insurance to commercial liability policies. A few big policyholders could have more bargaining clout than many small ones do, potentially putting more pressure on premium revenue.

Barclay’s insurance analyst Jay Gelb said insurers will have time to adapt as driverless cars become more common. Even if accidents become rarer, more complex cars will be costlier to fix, and insurers may ultimately benefit if accidents slow before premiums fall.

“I think it’s a good thing for insurers over the next decade,” Mr. Gelb said. “It’s hard to see how a product that has been in place for more than a century is just going to go away.”

Still, concern in the insurance industry has been building. Travelers first began cautioning investors about driverless cars two years ago, and Cincinnati Financial began adding its warning to securities filings in April last year.

The Insurance Information Institute, an insurance-industry public-relations organization, last month updated an online primer on the insurance implications of self-driving cars it created last year. It sees such cars as a natural outgrowth of a variety of advances in safety technology.

In California, the institute said, insurers are pushing for rules making clear that manufacturers are responsible for damage and injuries under a law allowing vehicles to be tested on public roads. Fewer accidents could make insurance cheaper, while driving-related workers' compensation claims would dwindle. At the same time, increasingly complex vehicles could raise the cost of repairs when crashes do occur.

“Except that the number of crashes will be greatly reduced, the insurance aspects of this gradual transformation are at present unclear,” the institute said.

Hence the risk factors. Many companies view that section of their filings as an exercise in liability protection, a place where they enumerate the many difficulties that could affect their business, however routine or unlikely. Still, changes are made or reviewed by company lawyers and rarely come by accident, said Michelle Leder, who spotted the disclosures as editor of footnoted, a service that combs filings for investors.

“The Risk Factors are always a little of everything under the sun, but they’re also real potential challenges,” Ms. Leder said. “Companies started seriously warning about cybersecurity issues five to eight years ago.”

[MUsoxfan]

I interpret that as them crying about how they won't be able to gouge everyone's wallet over every minor infraction as they've become accustomed to.

The truth is that everyone will still be forced to have auto insurance. They can still collude on pricing and they will have to pay out fewer claims

Also, I can't foresee a "rapid change" to driverless because the price point simply won't be within the grasp of most of the population for many, many years.

Even if there's a driverless car for under say $50k, there won't be too many people with that kind of dough. It would be cheaper for people to pay the huge insurance surcharges over the life of the car

And possibly the biggest point of all...

Americans won't ever want to forfeit control of their vehicle. Look at all those car ads with stunt drivers doing ridiculous, often illegal things in car commercials (but it's all cool, because nearly invisible disclaimer at the bottom of the screen for a split second). The whole car industry sells "look at all the awesome things YOU and this car can do together". It's not "look how this car will safely shuttle you about"

It's not in the DNA of Americans to forfeit control of their car

[ChicosBailBonds]

Correct, but the driverless industry will tell you that the change will be rapid because they project that insurance rates for driverless will plummet to a few hundred dollars a year while insurance rates for driver cars will soar to thousands a year.  This will not only accelerate the change to driverless, and cause a lot of auto insurance companies to go out of business.

In my view it's all about the liability.  Insurance rates might go down, but the liability rates for the manufacturers will go up through the roof.  Can't blame the driver any longer.  That alone is going to delay things

[MUsoxfan]

In my view it's all about the liability.  Insurance rates might go down, but the liability rates for the manufacturers will go up through the roof.  Can't blame the driver any longer.  That alone is going to delay things

Excellent point.

[Tugg Speedman]

I interpret that as them crying about how they won't be able to gouge everyone's wallet over every minor infraction as they've become accustomed to.

The truth is that everyone will still be forced to have auto insurance. They can still collude on pricing and they will have to pay out fewer claims

Also, I can't foresee a "rapid change" to driverless because the price point simply won't be within the grasp of most of the population for many, many years.

Even if there's a driverless car for under say $50k, there won't be too many people with that kind of dough. It would be cheaper for people to pay the huge insurance surcharges over the life of the car

And possibly the biggest point of all...

Americans won't ever want to forfeit control of their vehicle. Look at all those car ads with stunt drivers doing ridiculous, often illegal things in car commercials (but it's all cool, because nearly invisible disclaimer at the bottom of the screen for a split second). The whole car industry sells "look at all the awesome things YOU and this car can do together". It's not "look how this car will safely shuttle you about"

It's not in the DNA of Americans to forfeit control of their car

Two things.

In a world of driverless cars, all the cars have identical risk, unlike human driven cars.  The manufactures will offer cut rate insurance directly to the buyer.  It will be part of the price of the car.  The manufactures will re-insure it in bulk and the need for auto insurance companies goes away.  That is what they are trying to say in a round about way in the article above (no one is going to directly say "we are out of business when the driverless car comes" but that is what they are really saying.)

Yes we all love to drive cars.  The new world is envisioned to be ....

Driverless cars to get one from point A to Point B, and they will do  it really fast.  Driverless cars means no more parking.  40% of all urban congestion revolves around parking (looking for it, double parking etc.)  20% of a tank of gas in an urban area is used when the car is traveling 0 MPH.  In a world of no parking (more street to work with, few obstacles) and connected cars (all cars known what all other cars are doing), you will be able to get from Chicago's loop to O'hare in 15 to 20 minutes on a Friday at 5PM in the rain (2+ hours with driver cars now).  This is too compelling to pass up.  So driverless will start in the heavy urban areas, like the loop/river north/Lincoln park area of Chicago or Manhattan.  Human driven cars will be banned, you have to park outside these areas and take a driverless car inside it.  It will work out from this area outward.

Humans driving cars will be in dedicated recreational areas.  Think horses.  We banned them from street and now we ride them in parks or open spaces out west.  We will do the same with cars.  Many years from now a vacation will be going west and renting a really cool Porsche to drive for a week on open roads.

This is fun.  Sitting in traffic for 50 minutes everyday to and from work is not.  No one will miss that and happily give up their car to get rid of it.

Additionally, the long-term plan is you will not own a car anymore.  You will push a button on your phone and one will show up in less than 30 seconds.  Yes you can get different types depending on your need (van for many people, pickup to carry big stuff, etc.)  The average American spends $9,000 per car per year.  The estimate is 20 to 40 million driverless cars will get you what you need in 30 seconds, take you where you want to go much faster than you can do now (except at 3AM), and it will cost you a few thousand dollars a year, versus $18,000 a year for two cars that spend 95% of their time unused.

Oh, and this bankrupts the legacy car makers as explained above.

[MUsoxfan]

I can tell you've put a lot of thought into this. But much of what you say is not at all practical. I hate to burst your bubble

This reminds me of watching stories of people in the 60's when they thought that living life like the Jetson's was right around the corner.

http://io9.com/the-space-age-never-looked-brighter-than-it-did-in-the-1532321253?dfp_pp_ab=on&dfp_desktop_three=on&utm_expid=66866090-43.E9Bjfd6NTuSlXJewu2e_Ig.2

[ChicosBailBonds]

What happens when there is a hurricane coming to South Florida and everyone has 48 hours to get out?  Are they all pressing the button for their automated car to pick them up?

What happens at the Dodgers game when there are 20,000 cars needed at the same time to pick them up to go home...where are all 20,000 cars going to line up since they won't be parked to find customer A, customer B, Customer C3241, Customer X9302842?

So on and so forth


The white papers I'm sure are fascinating and I have no doubt driverless cars are coming...eventually.....a long time in the future for it to be anything of consequence.   The insurance thing is fine, but there will still be insurance, for those occasions when there are accidents and the passengers get hurt.  How about when the vehicle doesn't get me where I need to be on time....today that's my fault.  Now, in the future who's fault is it?  Can I seek damages...I'm betting there are attorneys already salivating over the concept.  What about the hacking of the networks that MUST control these cars for them to know how to get from customer A to B?  The beauty of technology is also the achilles heel vs the simplicity of low level technology.  No one is going to hack my pickup truck or someone's non-connected airplane....the same can't be true with today's technology.

[MUsoxfan]

What happens when there is a hurricane coming to South Florida and everyone has 48 hours to get out?  Are they all pressing the button for their automated car to pick them up?

What happens at the Dodgers game when there are 20,000 cars needed at the same time to pick them up to go home...where are all 20,000 cars going to line up since they won't be parked to find customer A, customer B, Customer C3241, Customer X9302842?

So on and so forth


The white papers I'm sure are fascinating and I have no doubt driverless cars are coming...eventually.....a long time in the future for it to be anything of consequence.   The insurance thing is fine, but there will still be insurance, for those occasions when there are accidents and the passengers get hurt.  How about when the vehicle doesn't get me where I need to be on time....today that's my fault.  Now, in the future who's fault is it?  Can I seek damages...I'm betting there are attorneys already salivating over the concept.  What about the hacking of the networks that MUST control these cars for them to know how to get from customer A to B?  The beauty of technology is also the achilles heel vs the simplicity of low level technology.  No one is going to hack my pickup truck or someone's non-connected airplane....the same can't be true with today's technology.

You're batting .1000 on this one

[Tugg Speedman]

I can tell you've put a lot of thought into this. But much of what you say is not at all practical. I hate to burst your bubble

This reminds me of watching stories of people in the 60's when they thought that living life like the Jetson's was right around the corner.

http://io9.com/the-space-age-never-looked-brighter-than-it-did-in-the-1532321253?dfp_pp_ab=on&dfp_desktop_three=on&utm_expid=66866090-43.E9Bjfd6NTuSlXJewu2e_Ig.2

The 1960s argument about living in space was never an economic one.  It was about having the ability to do it (which we still do) but the costs are so high that it is impractical.

Driver-less cars, are the opposite, it's about dramatically reducing the costs.  What will accelerate the movement to driver-less is they are much less money than owning your own car.

That is what drives modern technology.  It no longer about ability but about cost.  They make things drastically cheaper.

[Tugg Speedman]

What happens when there is a hurricane coming to South Florida and everyone has 48 hours to get out?  Are they all pressing the button for their automated car to pick them up?

What happens at the Dodgers game when there are 20,000 cars needed at the same time to pick them up to go home...where are all 20,000 cars going to line up since they won't be parked to find customer A, customer B, Customer C3241, Customer X9302842?

So on and so forth

Driverless buses.  And since are connected, they don't sit in traffic, they leave at 50 mph.  Or, you can park half-a-mile away and leave in the 7th inning for your 2 hour drive home.

Driverless buses from a region will be sent to hurricane areas to evacuate.  Atlanta and Jacksonville can reprogram city buses to immediately leave for south Florida, drive all night, evacuate, then immediate drive back to Atlanta or Jacksonville for the next day's city route.  No paying drivers overtime.  No drivers falling asleep and killing loads of people,.  No buses lost and not getting people out.

It's about cost.  So you want to save thousands and thousands in costs and improve the quality of your life or not?

[MUsoxfan]

This is all a fascinating pipe dream.

How long do you think this will take to be implemented?

[Tugg Speedman]

This is all a fascinating pipe dream.

How long do you think this will take to be implemented?

I agree with the first post above.  In three years you will start seeing driver-less cars (as in one here or there).  From the we go on to one of the biggest changes to our culture we have seen in our lifetime.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Correct, but the driverless industry will tell you that the change will be rapid because they project that insurance rates for driverless will plummet to a few hundred dollars a year while insurance rates for driver cars will soar to thousands a year.  This will not only accelerate the change to driverless, and cause a lot of auto insurance companies to go out of business.

I don't understand how driver cars liabilities increase compared to rates now. Why are you more expensive to insure if you drive your car among driverless cars than other driver cars now?

[MUsoxfan]

I agree with the first post above.  In three years you will start seeing driver-less cars (as in one here or there).  From the we go on to one of the biggest changes to our culture we have seen in our lifetime.

You're talking about changing a national infrastructure. I mean Metra can't even get their trains to come in on time and you think that magic automobiles that transport people and things at ease and on a whim is economically feasible, muchless practically feasible

I don't buy it. I bet if you conducted a poll of politicians, engineers and economists, there would be very little, if any agreement with you

[Tugg Speedman]

Quiet the opposite.  See the first post ...  Wall Street is betting many billions that driverless is coming and coming really fast.

See this

Autonomous cars will destroy millions of jobs and reshape the US economy by 2025
http://qz.com/403628/autonomous-cars-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025/



10 million driverless cars on the road by 2020
http://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5



THE COMING DRIVERLESS CAR AND ITS IMPACT ON REAL ESTATE
Why Driverless Cars Will Change the World While Driverless Real Estate Investing Will Leave You Behind
http://www.necanet.org/docs/default-source/2014-NECA-IBEW-Employee-Benefits-Conference/6-jeff-kanne-driverless-cars.pdf?sfvrsn=2
This was prepared by National Restate Advisors with almost 10 million square feet and $2 billion under management.  They are concerned that driverless car will have a big impact of their portfolio of properties.



http://blogs.reuters.com/james-saft/2015/05/28/a-self-driven-road-to-capital-destruction-james-saft/
What happens to an industry which develops a new offering so fantastic that ownership of its
product is cut in half?  Investors in the carmakers may in coming decades find out, as the advent of driverless cars disrupts (there really is no better word) an industry already suffering from over-investment and poor long-term performance.  Cars that drive themselves will do just that, allowing owners to keep a given vehicle working more of the time. That will lead to a more than doubling in annual mileage per car over the next 25 years but bring vehicles per household down by nearly 50 percent, argues Barclays auto analyst Brian Johnson.



The Self-Driving Car and the Coming Revolution in Auto Insurance
Google seems to be laying the groundwork to underwrite its own policies, displacing traditional carriers.
By Valerie Raburn
June 7, 2015 6:18 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-self-driving-car-and-the-coming-revolution-in-auto-insurance-1433715535



How a driverless car sees the road
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_urmson_how_a_driverless_car_sees_the_road



Bill Gates says the pace of innovation is as fast as ever
Philantropist says technology is starting to outstrip what was imaginable in his youth
Feb 26, 2015 4:33 AM ET

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bill-gates-says-the-pace-of-innovation-is-as-fast-as-ever-1.2972866

Microsoft founder and billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates says the pace of technological innovation is as fast as ever and shows no signs of slowing down.

"We're finally at the point where, in a few areas, it's starting to outstrip what was even imaginable in my youth," Gates told CBC’s chief correspondent Peter Mansbridge in a sit-down interview Wednesday.

Gates predicts a future where people will work seamlessly between devices through cloud-based computing: "Its impact on how we bank, how we communicate, how we entertain ourselves — we are just at the beginning of that," he said in the interview, which airs Saturday on Mansbridge One on One.

Computing will continue to expand to different devices and will use more natural interfaces, Gates said. “Speech is getting really very good, handwriting recognition is very good,” he said. "It will be this personal agent that's very, very powerful."



Bill Gates thinks Uber has the best shot at self-driving cars
by  Jonathan Chew
June 25, 2015, 11:28 AM EDT

https://fortune.com/2015/06/25/bill-gates-self-driving-cars/

Driverless cars have become a moonshot project for tech companies around the world, and Microsoft’s MSFT -1.55% Co-founder and world-leading philanthropist Bill Gates believes there’s one company that will rule the space.

In a conversation with Financial Times Editor Lionel Barber at an event in London Wednesday, Gates shared his thoughts on issues ranging from the global economy to robots to Silicon Valley. Gates said a real tipping point for change in driving will come from self-driving cars, calling it “the real rubicon.” And Uber is primed to take the lead, he added.

[brewcity77]

All I could think as I read the title and beginning of this thread was "What the F is Telsa"?!?

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'd love to see these same predictions about electric cars from just 5 years ago, solar panels, 3D TVs, HD DVDs, Blackberries, etc.   

[MUsoxfan]

Quiet the opposite.  See the first post ...  Wall Street is betting many billions that driverless is coming and coming really fast.

See this

Autonomous cars will destroy millions of jobs and reshape the US economy by 2025
http://qz.com/403628/autonomous-cars-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025/



10 million driverless cars on the road by 2020
http://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5



THE COMING DRIVERLESS CAR AND ITS IMPACT ON REAL ESTATE
Why Driverless Cars Will Change the World While Driverless Real Estate Investing Will Leave You Behind
http://www.necanet.org/docs/default-source/2014-NECA-IBEW-Employee-Benefits-Conference/6-jeff-kanne-driverless-cars.pdf?sfvrsn=2
This was prepared by National Restate Advisors with almost 10 million square feet and $2 billion under management.  They are concerned that driverless car will have a big impact of their portfolio of properties.



http://blogs.reuters.com/james-saft/2015/05/28/a-self-driven-road-to-capital-destruction-james-saft/
What happens to an industry which develops a new offering so fantastic that ownership of its
product is cut in half?  Investors in the carmakers may in coming decades find out, as the advent of driverless cars disrupts (there really is no better word) an industry already suffering from over-investment and poor long-term performance.  Cars that drive themselves will do just that, allowing owners to keep a given vehicle working more of the time. That will lead to a more than doubling in annual mileage per car over the next 25 years but bring vehicles per household down by nearly 50 percent, argues Barclays auto analyst Brian Johnson.



The Self-Driving Car and the Coming Revolution in Auto Insurance
Google seems to be laying the groundwork to underwrite its own policies, displacing traditional carriers.
By Valerie Raburn
June 7, 2015 6:18 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-self-driving-car-and-the-coming-revolution-in-auto-insurance-1433715535



How a driverless car sees the road
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_urmson_how_a_driverless_car_sees_the_road



Bill Gates says the pace of innovation is as fast as ever
Philantropist says technology is starting to outstrip what was imaginable in his youth
Feb 26, 2015 4:33 AM ET

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bill-gates-says-the-pace-of-innovation-is-as-fast-as-ever-1.2972866

Microsoft founder and billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates says the pace of technological innovation is as fast as ever and shows no signs of slowing down.

"We're finally at the point where, in a few areas, it's starting to outstrip what was even imaginable in my youth," Gates told CBC’s chief correspondent Peter Mansbridge in a sit-down interview Wednesday.

Gates predicts a future where people will work seamlessly between devices through cloud-based computing: "Its impact on how we bank, how we communicate, how we entertain ourselves — we are just at the beginning of that," he said in the interview, which airs Saturday on Mansbridge One on One.

Computing will continue to expand to different devices and will use more natural interfaces, Gates said. “Speech is getting really very good, handwriting recognition is very good,” he said. "It will be this personal agent that's very, very powerful."



Bill Gates thinks Uber has the best shot at self-driving cars
by  Jonathan Chew
June 25, 2015, 11:28 AM EDT

https://fortune.com/2015/06/25/bill-gates-self-driving-cars/

Driverless cars have become a moonshot project for tech companies around the world, and Microsoft’s MSFT -1.55% Co-founder and world-leading philanthropist Bill Gates believes there’s one company that will rule the space.

In a conversation with Financial Times Editor Lionel Barber at an event in London Wednesday, Gates shared his thoughts on issues ranging from the global economy to robots to Silicon Valley. Gates said a real tipping point for change in driving will come from self-driving cars, calling it “the real rubicon.” And Uber is primed to take the lead, he added.

Only a couple of those articles are relevant to your argument and the one you hang your hat on(qz.com)is total bullcrap as it's nothing but unsubstantiated speculation. Not to mention being unrealistically ambitious at best, and written by a "blogger".

A government mandated system of driverless cars which you propose, (and seems awfully communist) presents a multitude of problems that I haven't read answers for:

Logistics
Practicality
Economics
Privacy
etc

[Tugg Speedman]

Only a couple of those articles are relevant to your argument and the one you hang your hat on(qz.com)is total bullcrap as it's nothing but unsubstantiated speculation. Not to mention being unrealistically ambitious at best, and written by a "blogger".

A government mandated system of driverless cars which you propose, (and seems awfully communist) presents a multitude of problems that I haven't read answers for:

Logistics
Practicality
Economics
Privacy
etc

The "bullcrap blooger" is Zack Kanter.  He is one on Silicon Valley's big thinkers that probably makes more money in a day than most make in a year.

Zack Kanter earlier this year
Don't believe everything you think: how cognitive biases prevent us from accurately predicting the future (my TEDx)
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flinVCFYUjA …

What exact do you want to substantiate?  Someone's opinion about the future?

No one ever said anything about Government mandated system of driverless cars.  In fact it is the opposite, the Govenrment will be losing control to these systems (which is a good thing).

[MUsoxfan]

No one ever said anything about Government mandated system of driverless cars.  In fact it is the opposite, the Govenrment will be losing control to these systems (which is a good thing).

YOU said it yourself

"Humans driving cars will be in dedicated recreational areas.  Think horses.  We banned them from street and now we ride them in parks or open spaces out west.  We will do the same with cars."

[Tugg Speedman]

YOU said it yourself

"Humans driving cars will be in dedicated recreational areas.  Think horses.  We banned them from street and now we ride them in parks or open spaces out west.  We will do the same with cars."

That's to get human drivers off the road.  It does not mean the Government will dictate exactly how these cars (systems) will work.

And why will they do that?  Think Uber.

Every city Government in the world is taking bribes from taxi companies to ban Uber.  They really want to in the worst way but are afraid to because Uber is so popular.  Ditto driverless cars.  When they arrive in mass, it is going to be impossible to stop it.  Governments are going to be forced to allow then in and change rules for them.

[GOO]

Heisenberg, these experts get one thing wrong on the insurance side.  Insurance companies will be negatively effected by driverless cars, no doubt, in a big way.  Insurance will NOT be the driving force for people to abandon their traditional cars for self driving cars.  Why?  I posted this in another thread.  Their is a race, due to money in politics, to lessen the insurance requirements needed to drive legally.  One of the first things Walker did when he got into office was to lower the minimum insurance needed in Wisconsin from 100K to 25K liability.  Regardless of how bad a driver you are or how old your car is, that 25K liability policy will still be cheap.

Why cheap?  For the obvious reasons that don't need to be stated, but also because these firms that are pushing this and getting laws changed also don't payout easily.  Hit someone and expect your cheap insurance company to compensate them up to the 25K.... don't expect it, they won't pay unless they are taken to court.. and who is going to take them to court when the max payout is 25K... not many lawyers.

Anyway, I am exciting about the future in this area that needs disrupting, big time!  But, these experts that think insurance will get to expensive for traditional cars don't see what is going on in the industry for people that will be driving the older cars. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

I've been in Dallas most of this week at a conference that included AT&T's connect car.  They had this SMU professor speak for an hour on many things, including driverless cars.  It was pretty fascinating.  He believes 10 years until they come out and actually perform the way they are supposed to.  As he said, being 90% good isn't good enough for the public psyche.  They want 100% good, even if 90% good is as good as the public. 

The liability issues for the manufacturers are a major concern right now.  How to address this.  From an insurance perspective, he believes that auto insurance will change, but people will still need to get auto insurance to cover for their driverless car and any damage it does to them or someone else.  Sure, the owner of the car can sue the manufacturer, but that doesn't take away from the fact that their will still be some liability concerns if the car isn't kept up properly for maintenance, etc, etc.

[Tugg Speedman]

I've been in Dallas most of this week at a conference that included AT&T's connect car.  They had this SMU professor speak for an hour on many things, including driverless cars.  It was pretty fascinating.  He believes 10 years until they come out and actually perform the way they are supposed to.  As he said, being 90% good isn't good enough for the public psyche.  They want 100% good, even if 90% good is as good as the public. 

The liability issues for the manufacturers are a major concern right now.  How to address this.  From an insurance perspective, he believes that auto insurance will change, but people will still need to get auto insurance to cover for their driverless car and any damage it does to them or someone else.  Sure, the owner of the car can sue the manufacturer, but that doesn't take away from the fact that their will still be some liability concerns if the car isn't kept up properly for maintenance, etc, etc.

What was his conclusion?

[mr.MUskie]

All I could think as I read the title and beginning of this thread was "What the F is Telsa"?!?

+1. Again and again.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Update


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/02/technology/personaltech/google-says-its-not-the-driverless-cars-fault-its-other-drivers.html?action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=MostPopularFB&version=Full&region=Marginalia&src=me&pgtype=article

[Tugg Speedman]

Update


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/02/technology/personaltech/google-says-its-not-the-driverless-cars-fault-its-other-drivers.html?action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=MostPopularFB&version=Full&region=Marginalia&src=me&pgtype=article

This is why humans will be banned from driving.  They are efficient killing machines behind the wheel.

[MUsoxfan]

This is why humans will be banned from driving.  They are efficient killing machines behind the wheel.

So you've twice said that this will be government mandated, but once said it wouldn't. Which is it?