Seed Matters

[1SE]

We are a lock for the tourney. I'd also say our seed range has coalesced into a relatively narrow range. Win the BET and I think we're looking at no better than a 5. Lose out and we should be at worst a 10. But most results probably beep us between a 6 and a 9. I suppose depending how things go either of those extreme options could lead to a 4 or 11 but that's why I put the other category.

Seed REALLY matters. Jumping from a 10 to an 8/9 improves the odds of first round win from 40% to 50%. Jumping from 8/9 to a 7/6 improves it to 60%. Jumping from an 8 to a 6 improves the odds of a S16 from 10% to 30% (incidentally better to be a 10 than an 8/9 for S16 aspirations). Interestingly, not that much difference between a 5 and a 6 for 1st round win or S16.

I'd really like a 6 seed. I think we need to win our next 2 and the first round BET to get that. Eminently doable. Let's go Marquette.

https://www.boydsbets.com/bracket-tips-by-seed/

[PGsHeroes32]

We are a lock for the tourney. I'd also say our seed range has coalesced into a relatively narrow range. Win the BET and I think we're looking at no better than a 5. Lose out and we should be at worst a 10. But most results probably beep us between a 6 and a 9. I suppose depending how things go either of those extreme options could lead to a 4 or 11 but that's why I put the other category.

Seed REALLY matters. Jumping from a 10 to an 8/9 improves the odds of first round win from 40% to 50%. Jumping from 8/9 to a 7/6 improves it to 60%. Jumping from an 8 to a 6 improves the odds of a S16 from 10% to 30% (incidentally better to be a 10 than an 8/9 for S16 aspirations). Interestingly, not that much difference between a 5 and a 6 for 1st round win or S16.

I'd really like a 6 seed. I think we need to win our next 2 and the first round BET to get that. Eminently doable. Let's go Marquette.

https://www.boydsbets.com/bracket-tips-by-seed/

I think for a 6 we gotta do 2-0 and then beat both Creighton and Prov in the BET. Which I feel really good about doing.

If SHU and their 30ish NET ends up being the 4/5 oppenent. Then maybe 2-0 and just a win over SHU is enough to move to 6.

Have to win out for any chance at a 5. And that will still rely on the committee taking BET results into good consideration.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think we need 3-1 or better to feel good about getting a 6 seed.  5 is probably the ceiling if we win out.

0-3 and 10 seed is probably the floor. 

2-1 or 2-2 and we're probably a 7 or 8.

[WhiteTrash]

The NCCA is a crapshoot. Seed 1 or 16 does not matter. 

[Galway Eagle]

The NCCA is a crapshoot. Seed 1 or 16 does not matter. 

National Collegiate Crap Association?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The NCCA is a crapshoot. Seed 1 or 16 does not matter. 

It is a crapshoot. But the better the seed,  the better a shot you have at winning the crapshoot

[MuggsyB]

This is an unusual year.  I don't see a dominant team, even on the #1 line.  I think a #6 would be most ideal for us but I'd take a #7. 

[WhiteTrash]

It is a crapshoot. But the better the seed,  the better a shot you have at winning the crapshoot

Sooo.... not a crapshoot at all.

crapshoot
SINGULAR NOUN [a N]
If you describe something as a crapshoot, you mean that what happens depends entirely on luck or chance.

[StillAWarrior]

Sooo.... not a crapshoot at all.

crapshoot
SINGULAR NOUN [a N]
If you describe something as a crapshoot, you mean that what happens depends entirely on luck or chance.

Wondering where you found that definition.

Merriam-Webster - "something (such as a business venture) that has an unpredictable outcome"
Google/Oxford - "a risky or uncertain matter"
Dictionary.com - "anything unpredictable, risky, or problematical; gamble"

[WhiteTrash]

Depending on you definition of 'crapshoot' all games are crapshoots. There is no guaranteed outcome. To use a reference from the etymology of 'crapshoot' (the game craps) owning a casino is a crapshoot. The house can loose but I'd take their odds as opposed to the players and I'd rather be a 1 seed than 16. 

Years of data support Vegas odds and NCAA seeds as reliable (not perfect in either case) predictors of outcomes.

My personal definition of a 'crapshoot' is where you really have no idea of the probable outcome (i.e. a 0 - 2pt spread) or rolling a dice.

 

[StillAWarrior]

Depending on you definition of 'crapshoot' all games are crapshoots. There is no guaranteed outcome. To use a reference from the etymology of 'crapshoot' (the game craps) owning a casino is a crapshoot. The house can loose but I'd take their odds as opposed to the players and I'd rather be a 1 seed than 16. 

Years of data support Vegas odds and NCAA seeds as reliable (not perfect in either case) predictors of outcomes.

My personal definition of a 'crapshoot' is where you really have no idea of the probable outcome (i.e. a 0 - 2pt spread) or rolling a dice.

Assuming you've got enough funds to withstand a bad run (and they do), owning a casino isn't a crapshoot. It's math. Generally speaking, they can tell you what percentage of $1 million crossing the table (or $10 million or $100 million) they're going to keep. They know that even factoring in optimal play (and few people play optimally) they're going to come out ahead. For example, consider why there is a green zero on the roulette wheel. Now that game really is a "crapshoot! (using your definition above) . Same goes for rolling dice (in craps). If you roll them 1000 times, it's not all that difficult to predict about how many times you're going to roll a seven. If you roll them 1,000,000 times, even easier.

But I agree totally with your underlying point: I'd much rather be a 1 seed than a 16.

[CountryRoads]

Regardless of seed, the first round game is going to be a complete crapshoot. It solely depends on the matchup.

I’m not one to say we can’t look ahead, but to me the first round game is our super bowl and is all I’m focused on this season. Everything else is gravy.

If MU makes it past the second round, they will be playing a very good team unless there is some crazy upset. Whether that is Purdue, Baylor, or Arkansas, or whatever, it doesn’t really make much difference to me personally. I think the top teams are all roughly the same and we could beat anybody on a given night.

[panda]

Once you think about it, every game ever is a crapshoot. Maybe life itself is just a crapshoot.

[StillAWarrior]

Once you think about it, every game ever is a crapshoot. Maybe life itself is just a crapshoot.

You're not wrong.

[GoldenEagles03]

I think for a 6 we gotta do 2-0 and then beat both Creighton and Prov in the BET. Which I feel really good about doing.

If SHU and their 30ish NET ends up being the 4/5 oppenent. Then maybe 2-0 and just a win over SHU is enough to move to 6.

Have to win out for any chance at a 5. And that will still rely on the committee taking BET results into good consideration.

Marquette is probably going to face Seton Hall in the 1st round of the Big East Tournament unfortunately.

[WhiteTrash]

Assuming you've got enough funds to withstand a bad run (and they do), owning a casino isn't a crapshoot. It's math. Generally speaking, they can tell you what percentage of $1 million crossing the table (or $10 million or $100 million) they're going to keep. They know that even factoring in optimal play (and few people play optimally) they're going to come out ahead. For example, consider why there is a green zero on the roulette wheel. Now that game really is a "crapshoot! (using your definition above) . Same goes for rolling dice (in craps). If you roll them 1000 times, it's not all that difficult to predict about how many times you're going to roll a seven. If you roll them 1,000,000 times, even easier.

But I agree totally with your underlying point: I'd much rather be a 1 seed than a 16.

Good points. I agree it was maybe not an apples to apples comparison. My original post was a poke at those those chalked up Wojo's failures to the 'crapshoopt' nature of the NCAA (and I suppose the regular season also) and not poor coaching, preparation or execution. If it were a 'crapshoot' then abandoning seedings and having a random draw for opponents would make sense. I think we can all agree that will not (nor should not) happen.

Or maybe I was just being suckered into trolling.   

[Jay Bee]

Marquette is probably going to face Seton Hall in the 1st round of the Big East Tournament unfortunately.

If by “probably” you mean “not the most likely outcome”

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Depending on you definition of 'crapshoot' all games are crapshoots.

There! You get it!

All single games are crapshoots. Any given night, any team can play their worst game of the season or play a team that plays their best game of the season, or both. 99 times out of a 100, Virginia curbstomps UMBC. But if their NCAAT game happens to be that 100th time, UMBC wins and Virginia is knocked out of the NCAAT.

The more games you play, the less of a crapshoot it becomes. The better team is more likely to win more games over multiple opportunities than they are to win a single game in one opportunity. So individual regular season games are a crapshoot, but the entire regular season, conference tournament, and postseason combined are far from a crapshoot.

That is all that is meant by the "NCAAT is a crapshoot" meme. If you solely judge coaches based on their performance in the NCAAT, you are choosing to only look at a single game (or a max of 6 games) instead of looking at the entire body of work. Tony Bennett had a very good year in 17-18, with a craptastic ending. If you look at just his game against UMBC, you would call him a garbage coach. If you look at his whole body of work, you wouldn't be surprised if he won the national championship a year later. Kevin Ollie had a player go nuclear hot and they won a national championship together after a mediocre (by their standards at the time) season. Over the next few years he led them down the toilet bowl before getting canned.

And please, this isn't a wojo thing. That meme well pre-dates Wojo being hired. And if Wojo had beaten South Carolina or Murray State, personally wouldn't have changed my opinion that he needed to be fired after last season. And that's the danger of overvaluing March when evaluating coaches. You talk yourself into saying a bad coach is a good one because he won a game or two at the end of the season. Georgetown may have fallen into the trap with Ewing after his miracle run to win the BET last season.

Seeds are what matter. If you have a coach consistently earning you protected seeds, eventually you will break through to the second weekend and final four.

[DienerTime34]

I agree with the poster who said Game #1 of the tournament is our Super Bowl. Scoopers are mentally prepared that whoever Game #2 is against is going to be a "bad matchup" because it's going to feature very, very good basketball players in an arena close to their home, correct?

[BrewCity83]

While it's true that the 2nd round game will most probably be against a really good team, the reason we are so eager to get that first win is that it's been damn near ten years since we've had one.  Put that on top of the expectations going into the season and you have a 1st round "Super Bowl" of sorts. 

[Skip Intro]

With the B10 having such a strong year and the ACC having such a crappy year, I feel like a lot of 6-8 seeds are going to get really tough first round matchups. 

I don't care what their regular season record is, drawing UNC, Indiana, Michigan, (or even possibly Mich St. should they crap out down the stretch) in the first round would be a downer. 

[brewcity77]

I agree with the poster who said Game #1 of the tournament is our Super Bowl. Scoopers are mentally prepared that whoever Game #2 is against is going to be a "bad matchup" because it's going to feature very, very good basketball players in an arena close to their home, correct?

I'll have more on potential matchups later in the week, but you're correct that there aren't many favorable matchups among the top three seed lines.

[GoldenEagles03]

If by “probably” you mean “not the most likely outcome”

It's the most likely.

Creighton loses to UConn and Seton Hall.

Marquette wins at least 1 game. That's it.

[Jay Bee]

It's the most likely.

Creighton loses to UConn and Seton Hall.

Marquette wins at least 1 game. That's it.

Disagree

[Herman Cain]

I am pumped that we are back to have a seeding dialogue.

For now my focus is on beating a scrappy  Blue Demon squad on the road, with the help of the MU faithful filling up Wintrust. Then garner a solid win over The Johnnies  . I believe we will do well in The Garden in the BET and be in line for a respectable seed.

The  number of our Quality Wins will be noticed by the committee. It seems every year in the interview with the Committee Chairman after the field is announced they point to Quality Wins as a key factor in their decisions.