Analysis - How Many Games Has MU Lost To FT Shooting ... Answer, None!

[Tugg Speedman]

The table below is our FT shooting in all the games we lost this year.  I assume the table is hard to read so I also attached it as a graphic (click on it to blow it up).

Observations
I'm having a hard time finding a game that we lost because of FT shooting.

* In 7 of the 11 losses, MU shot a better FT% than its opponent (bolded)

* In 4 of the 11 losses, MU's opponent shot a better FT% (bolded).  In two of these losses (Uconn and GU) our opponent shout 89% or better.   The other two (Vandy and Wisc) our opponent was only marginally better.  One more FT against Wisc and two more against Vandy and we would have had the same shooting %.  Conclusion, we were not badly beaten at the FT line in any game this year.

* In 3 of the 11 games, we made more than the other team attempted (Buzz's favorite Stat).  So, as shocking as this might be to some around here, Buzz might actually be on to something.  When we make more than the other team attempts, we win.  In 8 of our 11 losses this did not happen.


Team   FTM   FTA   FT%   Team   FTM   FTA   FT%   Make More Than Other Team Attempts
MU   11   17   64.71%   Duke   6   12   50.00%   
MU   15   21   71.43%   Gonzaga   8   13   61.54%   TRUE
MU   16   22   72.73%   Wisconsin   11   14   78.57%   TRUE
MU   7   13   53.85%   Vandy   11   16   68.75%   
MU   20   27   74.07%   Pitt   19   27   70.37%   
MU   28   38   73.68%   Louisville   12   21   57.14%   TRUE
MU   15   17   88.24%   ND   28   36   77.78%   
MU   12   17   70.59%   Uconn   14   15   93.33%   
MU   13   14   92.86%   Nova   29   33   87.88%   
MU   18   27   66.67%   GU   16   18   88.89%   
MU   25   32   78.13%   SJU   23   31   74.19%   
Season   469   675   69.48%               
Losses   289   430   67.21%      177   236   75.00%   
Wins   180   245   73.47%               


Additional Thoughts

Remember you cannot shoot 100% from the foul line.  So you have to miss some.  So please don't give the unintelligent answer that after going 14 for 15 from the FT in the first half of SJU, we missed some critical FTs down the stretch.  If you're going to say 25 for 32 was not good enough and we should have been 30 for 32, then you're asking for something that is unrealistic.  That game was lost for other reasons.

What about missing the front-end of one-and-ones and critical late game FTs?  I do not have the stats for this.  But, all FTs count the same.  Can anyone remember a game we lost because we blew it at the line down the stretch?  In fact it's the opposite.  The only example of blowing FTs down the stretch is a game we won - USF.

What about the Vandy game?  At first blush this game looks like we lost it at the line.  However, I do not remember anyone claiming that game was lost at the line.  That game was lost for other reasons.

Bottom line
About every three days we start another tiresome thread that our FT shooting is hurting us.  We then Blame Buzz for not practicing it.  Never mind the fact that we are still in the upper half of FT shooting.

Now, if you look at these stats, you will conclude that if Buzz wasted time practicing FTs this year, he would have not improved on a 16-11 team.  In fact, it might have been worse as they would have been doing less of something else to practice FTs.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Did your analysis look at missing the front end of a one and one and giving up multiple points?

No games?  You can say that about anything. A basketball game is the sum of all it's parts.  A missed layup in the first 3 minutes may be the ultimate difference.  A seemingly benign missed rotation at the 12 minute mark of the first half could be the difference.  

But for giggles, let's look at the Louisville game and some free throw opportunities.  Is it the reason MU lost?  There are lots of reasons MU lost....let's spin that...if MU converted on their free throws does MU win?


You can pick any time in the game if you wish, we missed free throws and lost the game by 1 point.  But let's look at the last minute.  MU is up by 2 points, JC at the line with 37 seconds left.  He makes 1 of 2 to put MU up 3 points.  Still a one possession game.  The difference in that free throw is GIGANTIC because it makes it a 4 point, 2 possession game.   Other examples...Crowder was 0 for 3 in the second half in FTs...I think we lost by 1.  DJO missed an important one in the final 8 minutes.

Let's look at Vanderbilt....we lost by one point and shot 53.8% from the line.  DJO was 2 for 5 from the stripe.  You think we might win if we shoot just 68% from the line that day?  That's not even a 2% increase overall on our season average...hell, all we had to do was shoot our season average and we win.


Let's look at how FT damn near cost us a game and we would most definitely be on the outside looking in.  South Florida...we won by one point and shot 36.8% from the line.  Just imagine how devastated you and everyone else here would be if we lost that game and shot like that from the line.  

[Tugg Speedman]

So, missing at FT late in the game when its on the line is because we don't have organized practice.  It has nothing to do with mental toughness?

The question before the house is whether Buzz's philosophy of not having organized FT practice has hurt this team.  In looking at the losses, I cannot see a game where we had a horrible day and lost it at the line.

The horrible day was a win, but you want to treat it as a loss.

[StillAWarrior]

So, missing at FT late in the game when its on the line is because we don't have organized practice.  It has nothing to do with mental toughness?

The question before the house is whether Buzz's philosophy of not having organized FT practice has hurt this team.  In looking at the losses, I cannot see a game where we had a horrible day and lost it at the line.

The horrible day was a win, but you want to treat it as a loss.

Of course it has to do with mental toughness.  I've never debated that.  But it also has to do with conditioning, technique, muscle memory, etc., etc., etc.  You've rejected the entire concept of muscle memory on this board before, but I suspect that many elite athletes would say that it's the muscle memory that kicks in when they're they're under pressure and/or exhausted that can make the difference in those situations.

[ChicosBailBonds]

So, missing at FT late in the game when its on the line is because we don't have organized practice.  It has nothing to do with mental toughness?

The question before the house is whether Buzz's philosophy of not having organized FT practice has hurt this team.  In looking at the losses, I cannot see a game where we had a horrible day and lost it at the line.

The horrible day was a win, but you want to treat it as a loss.

I don't want to treat it as a loss, I want to show how pathetic a showing that was and it nearly cost us.  If it did, that would have been a season collapsing loss.  We would be on the outside looking in.

Back to the Vandy game, if we merely shoot our avg, we win that game.  No 2% improvement even needed.  Games are won and lost for a number of reasons.  A good shooting free throw team can improve it's W's and L's by 2 or 3 games by shooting free throws consistently.  I gave you 2 wins we could have had...sounds about right.

[Tugg Speedman]

Back to the Vandy game, if we merely shoot our avg, we win that game.  No 2% improvement even needed.  Games are won and lost for a number of reasons.  A good shooting free throw team can improve it's W's and L's by 2 or 3 games by shooting free throws consistently.  I gave you 2 wins we could have had...sounds about right.

I'll bet you're all excited that seven weeks after the Vandy game you have discovered a new statistic to blame the loss on Buzz.  Before I wrote this post, no one complained about Vandy FT shooting lost that game.  Now you cannot get off it.

MU averages 26 FT attempts a game.  I believe that the Vandy game was a season low 13 (it was a season loss low and I have not checked every win yet).  The problem with Vandy FT shooting was not the percentage but the number of trips to the line, it was too low.

[Tugg Speedman]

I've posted this before (written in March 2009)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/04/sports/basketball/04freethrow.html

But one thing has remained remarkably constant: the rate at which players make free throws.

Since the mid-1960s, college men’s players have made about 69 percent of free throws, the unguarded 15-foot, 1-point shot awarded after a foul. In 1965, the rate was 69 percent. This season, as teams scramble for bids to the N.C.A.A. tournament, it was 68.8. It has dropped as low as 67.1 but never topped 70.

In the National Basketball Association, the average has been roughly 75 percent for more than 50 years. Players in college women’s basketball and the W.N.B.A. reached similar plateaus — about equal to the men — and stuck there.

---

There is little correlation between free-throw percentages and winning percentages. Only one of the 25 best shooting teams, No. 2 North Carolina, is also in the latest Associated Press top 25 rankings. Southern Utah has a losing record.

That is why, despite accounting for more than 20 percent of scoring in men’s college basketball and just below 20 percent in the N.B.A., free throws receive a fraction of the attention from coaches, players and fans. That is, until something considered free proves costly.

---

Ray Stefani, a professor emeritus at California State University, Long Beach, is an expert in the statistical analysis of sports. Widespread improvement over time in any sport, he said, depends on a combination of four factors: physiology (the size and fitness of athletes, perhaps aided by performance-enhancing drugs), technology or innovation (things like the advent of rowing machines to train rowers, and the Fosbury Flop in high jumping), coaching (changes in strategy) and equipment (like the clap skate in speedskating or fiberglass poles in pole vaulting).

Those factors can help explain why swimming records seemingly fall at every international event, runners broke through the four-minute-mile barrier, field-goal kickers are more accurate than ever, bowling a 300 game is not as unlikely as it once was, and home run numbers surged in major league baseball.

“There are not a lot of those four things that would help in free-throw shooting,” Stefani said.

Strength, for example, is not a significant advantage. W.N.B.A. players have outshot their N.B.A. counterparts twice in the past three years, and women in college have been close to the men’s average for two decades.

There has not been a serious innovation in the way free throws have been shot for 50 years. The few still using a one-hand set shot from the chest, or even an underhand style, generally gave way to a flat-footed version of the burgeoning over-the-head jump shot. And although international players have helped the free-throw rate — Wright, the Columbia statistician, calculated that foreign-born players in the N.B.A. this season are shooting about 1.4 percentage points higher than their American-born counterparts — it cannot fully explain why the league is threatening the record high of 77.1, set in 1974.

Equipment, too, is virtually unchanged from 50 years ago. There have been only slight alterations to the ball, the rims and the backboards.

That leaves only one of Stefani’s four factors that might reasonably affect free-throw averages: coaching.

Coaches admit to baselines of acceptability for their players and teams. The average, apparently, is about 75 percent in the N.B.A. and 69 percent in college basketball. When numbers slip, time is devoted to improvement. When they rebound, the game’s other facets take precedence.

Those factors can help explain why swimming records seemingly fall at every international event, runners broke through the four-minute-mile barrier, field-goal kickers are more accurate than ever, bowling a 300 game is not as unlikely as it once was, and home run numbers surged in major league baseball.

Strength, for example, is not a significant advantage. W.N.B.A. players have outshot their N.B.A. counterparts twice in the past three years, and women in college have been close to the men’s average for two decades.

There has not been a serious innovation in the way free throws have been shot for 50 years. The few still using a one-hand set shot from the chest, or even an underhand style, generally gave way to a flat-footed version of the burgeoning over-the-head jump shot. And although international players have helped the free-throw rate — Wright, the Columbia statistician, calculated that foreign-born players in the N.B.A. this season are shooting about 1.4 percentage points higher than their American-born counterparts — it cannot fully explain why the league is threatening the record high of 77.1, set in 1974.

Equipment, too, is virtually unchanged from 50 years ago. There have been only slight alterations to the ball, the rims and the backboards.

That leaves only one of Stefani’s four factors that might reasonably affect free-throw averages: coaching.

Coaches admit to baselines of acceptability for their players and teams. The average, apparently, is about 75 percent in the N.B.A. and 69 percent in college basketball. When numbers slip, time is devoted to improvement. When they rebound, the game’s other facets take precedence.

“A lot of coaches don’t want to spend time on it in practice,” said Blake Ahearn, a former Missouri State player who is the N.C.A.A.’s leader in career free-throw percentage (94.6) and now leads the N.B.A. Development League as a guard for the Dakota Wizards. “They want to work on defenses and offenses and schemes.”

But even practice has never made perfect. The general rule is that players, in games, shoot 10 percentage points below their practice average. The difference is pressure and fatigue, hard to replicate in an empty arena.


-----------------

My summary ... teams shoot 69%, we are shooting 69%.  If you happen to shoot 83% like UW, you have good shooters, not better coaching.

FT shooting is what it is.  In 50 years D1 basketball has not improved.  No coaching technique has shown to make FT% improve.  If it has, the averages would trend higher overtime as the others coaches adopt that technique.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'll bet you're all excited that seven weeks after the Vandy game you have discovered a new statistic to blame the loss on Buzz.  Before I wrote this post, no one complained about Vandy FT shooting lost that game.  Now you cannot get off it.

MU averages 26 FT attempts a game.  I believe that the Vandy game was a season low 13 (it was a season loss low and I have not checked every win yet).  The problem with Vandy FT shooting was not the percentage but the number of trips to the line, it was too low.

Sigh.

Yeah, I'm blaming it all on Buzz.

Another84, look...we get it.  You're heavily invested in Buzz and have been since the day you joined this board (3 days before Buzz was hired).  I admire your devotion to him.  I've said time and time again I think he's a good coach, an above average recruiter.  I've also said that he's green, but that's the gamble we took.  I hope he can get up to speed further in the next few years.  Some here predicted we would turn into DePaul after the Buzz hire.  I was not one of them.  My worry is more that we end up mired in that 9 to 12 slot, the Seton Halls of the world.  Where we have talent but we're always just a smidge short on getting over the hump.  I don't think that will happen, but it does concern me.  Cutting your chops in this league for a young coach is unforgiving. 

I am not blaming Buzz for our loss at Vandy.  I do, however, find it interesting that some of the best coaches in America feel it necessary to put their team through free throw drills.  I'm one of those guys that believes in studying what successful people do....CEO's, generals, coaches, etc and you can learn a lot from how they prepare, how they manage, how they lead, how they practice.  There is no perfect answer or perfect manual, we all get it.  Life would be boring if that is the case.  But to suggest that we couldn't have won a few more games if we shot free throws better is denying the pure mathematics involved.  Of course, we could have also shot the ball better or played defense better, too, and also won the game. 

[Marquette84]

I'll bet you're all excited that seven weeks after the Vandy game you have discovered a new statistic to blame the loss on Buzz.  Before I wrote this post, no one complained about Vandy FT shooting lost that game.  Now you cannot get off it.

MU averages 26 FT attempts a game.  I believe that the Vandy game was a season low 13 (it was a season loss low and I have not checked every win yet).  The problem with Vandy FT shooting was not the percentage but the number of trips to the line, it was too low.

What did you expect when you post something titled
"How Many Games Has MU Lost To FT Shooting ... Answer, None!"

It doesn't take a genius to find a one-point loss on our schedule in which we missed a free throw. 
 
One stat left out of your FT analysis is a comparison year-over-year:
--This year we are 7th in conference in .695
--Last year we were 2nd, at .741

If someone wants to make the observation that our FT shooting may have slipped this year, it just might be justified in fact.  Given that we make no bones about how getting to the line is our strategy for winning, I would think that we would want to maintain stellar FT shooting.  We've slipped from stellar to average.

I don't know what the answer is--but sticking ones head in the sand, accusing people of being anti-Buzz, or pretending there is no problem at all is not the solution. 

Our FT shooting has slipped significantly year over year.  Its not an attack on Buzz to suggest that understanding why we've slipped and how to fix it should be of concern to the coaching staff. 

[Knight Commission]

We would have won Vandy and Louisville for sure with even slightly better free throw shooting.

Otule needs to get better or he will be fouled every time he puts up a shot.

[Tugg Speedman]

If someone wants to make the observation that our FT shooting may have slipped this year, it just might be justified in fact.  Given that we make no bones about how getting to the line is our strategy for winning, I would think that we would want to maintain stellar FT shooting.  We've slipped from stellar to average.
...
Our FT shooting has slipped significantly year over year.  Its not an attack on Buzz to suggest that understanding why we've slipped and how to fix it should be of concern to the coaching staff.  

Last year FT% 74.1%
Lazar 127 FTA, 84%
Acker, 55 FTA, 73%
Cubes, 24 FTA, 75%

This FT% 69.5%

The loss of these three, and replacing them with lesser shooters, can pretty much explain the difference.

Interesting ... The Three top FTAs that were on the team last year ...

                        FT%
                  2010     2011
JFB              76.6%   79.7%
DJO              67.7%   72.9%
DB                69.4%   71.9%

All three improved this year.  Experience matters more than organized practice.

Defending Buzz, guilty.  Is he problem-free? No.
But this FT% stuff comes up ans a criticism of not having organized practices.  It does not matter.

[Tugg Speedman]

We would have won Vandy and Louisville for sure with even slightly better free throw shooting.

So the answer is every game lost but less than the number of missed throws is a game lost at the FT line.  Then UW lost the MSU game at the line.  They lost in OT and were 11 for 12 from the FT line.  That one miss lost them the game!  Hope Bo had them practice extra after that game!

What I'm trying to say in all our losses our FT shooting was about the same as our wins.  Our FT shooting is slightly above average.  It is not a problem this year.  Yes, it may not be an asset either.  But FT shooting does not deserve all the attention it has gotten on this board.

Defense, PG play, set plays out a TO are indeed an issue.  Not this.

[Tugg Speedman]

You can almost entirely explain five points decline in this year FT% with this? 

Lazar (84% FT%)
Crowder (61% FT%)

The team doesn't need organized FT practice, just Crowder.  I'm guessing, however, he already is practicing it.

[cheebs09]

The thing is like in the Vandy game, if Jimmy makes that shot at the end then no one cares about the free throw shooting. Should we start spending half our practice on end game shots? You can break down a ton of plays and be like, well if we set a better screen a few times we could have gotten more layups and stuff like that. Free throws are just magnified because they happen when the clock is stopped and that is all that is happening. Maybe if we didn't throw a few bad passes we would have won more games. There are many reasons for losing a game outside of free throws.

How do we know what the players are doing when they shoot free throws on their own? Maybe they lift weights for awhile and shoot free throws in between sets. They could run lines on their own and then shoot free throws. Is it possible they are putting forth a minimal effort and joking around while they "practice" free throws? Possibly. Is it possible that they are busting their butt and doing the things on the side that leads to the way you think is the best way to practice free throws? I think it is just as possible.

[SacWarrior]

Memphis had never lost a game due to free throws back in 2008 until that final game.

Look how well that turned out for them.

[ChicosBailBonds]

We would have won Vandy and Louisville for sure with even slightly better free throw shooting.

Otule needs to get better or he will be fouled every time he puts up a shot.

Yup.  Of course there were other reasons as well. The OP would like to focus only on those other things and apparently FT is never to be discussed as ONE of the reasons.  Odd, especially since our core strategy is to get to the line more than our opponents.  One would think if that's our core strategy, that maximizing the execution (i.e. bringing home the bacon after getting all those FTAs) would be paramount. 

[Lennys Tap]

Memphis had never lost a game due to free throws back in 2008 until that final game.

Look how well that turned out for them.

Think Derrick Rose will ever get over it?

[TallTitan34]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/04/sports/basketball/04freethrow.html

Great article!

Memphis had never lost a game due to free throws back in 2008 until that final game.

Considering they vacated their games that season, that game really didn't matter at all haha.

[Stretchdeltsig]

It's important that we practice free throws.  Free throws win games and missed free throws lose games period.  It seems that Buzz does not teach free throw shooting mechanics or shooting mechanics period.  That is a problem.  Whenever I shoot a free throw now, I think of Hank Raymonds showing us how to have our shooting hand parallel the floor, bend our legs and elevate the shot.  It still works for me.  God bless Hank.  C'mon Buzz, teach them how to shoot.

[marquette99]

You analysis is great because there are people who will literally watch teams go 19 of 21, lose by a point, and say, those 2 misses cost us the game!  In fact, as you aluded to, a team averages just over 2-3rds of ft on average, so that is what we should grade ourselves against to say we either won it, lost it, or didn't matter at the line.

I have to say vandy is a loss at the line.  We hit 7 of 13, while on average you'd make 9 of 13, so we cost ourselves 2 points or we would have won.

Now chicos brings up the tough part - between 0 and 6 times in each game you shoot one-and-one.

Now at 67 percent, if you go to the line 9 times for one-and-one, the results are:

0 pts 3 times by missing front end

1 point 2 times for hitting front end and missing bonus

2 points 4 times for making both.

So you average justover 10 points per 9 one-and-ones, so I don't thin you can say missing the front end cost you two points.

Therefore. My rule of thump goes back to assume 67 percent made or the next highest number made (since actual percentage is just above 67 percent).

Yes, that doesn't account forbeing hurt a little more for any front ends of one and ones, but statistically that is offset by the fact that an averageteam scores 1 point for every 6 missed free throws in the game via grabbing their miss and averaging a point on the sustained trip.

And let's give credit too - if mu goes 12 of 15 and wins by 1, that means they won at the line since 10 freethrows would have been average.

The much, much bigger favtor in most games is getting to the line more often.

[TJ]

Which game did we miss the last 7 FTs in a row?  Was that USF?  I guess it's not a problem since we won then.

[Abode4life]

You analysis is great because there are people who will literally watch teams go 19 of 21, lose by a point, and say, those 2 misses cost us the game!

They call it a free throw for a reason. I'm just saying...

[Marquette84]

You analysis is great because there are people who will literally watch teams go 19 of 21, lose by a point, and say, those 2 misses cost us the game! 

The only people who have said something to this effect were those setting up a strawman.

From what I've seen, people who have been critical of FT shooting have pointed to two very specific games--not every close game.

[Stretchdeltsig]

The bottom line is that free throws are a very important part of the game.  It is important that we make as many free throws as possible.  Missed free throws are missed opportunities which can easily translate to losses. 

[leever]

"They call it a free throw for a reason. I'm just saying..."

I think it's a "free throw" because you are "free" from being guarded, not because you are free from all risk of missing said shot.