2012 MLB Thread

[buckchuckler]

I have to admit, I wasn't sure about the 2 wild card system, but how this season is shaking out, it seems like it will be an incredible final month. 

[Benny B]

I have to admit, I wasn't sure about the 2 wild card system, but how this season is shaking out, it seems like it will be an incredible final month. 

We currently have a 6-team race for the 2nd Wild Card spot, and a 3- or 4- tie is plausible at this point; further, since the only games scheduled amongst the contenders are 4 between the Dodgers/Cards and 3 between each Brewers/Pirates and Dodgers/D-Backs, there is even an outside chance at a 5- or 6-way tie (in the scenarios below) since teams won't be "beating up on each other" for the most part.  In such a case, I'm not sure MLB even has a scenario for breaking more than a 4-way tie for one wildcard spot, so things could get very interesting.

St Louis (75-66)
Remaining Games (21): @SD(2), @LAD(4), HOU(3), @CHC(3), @HOU(3), WAS(3), CIN(3)
Potential Scenario: Split road games, home series vs. Hou 2-1, final home series 2-4. (10-11)
Tiebreaker Advantage: MIL & ARI (HTH record)

LA Dodgers (74-67)
Remaining Games (21): @ARI(2), STL(4), @WAS(3), @CIN(3), @SD(3), COL(3), SF(3)
Potential Scenario: Split remaining ARI & STL games, 4-7 road trip, 4-2 final homestand. (11-10)
Tiebreaker Advantage: STL, PIT, PHI (HTH record)

Pittsburgh (72-68)
Remaining Games (22): @CIN(2), @CHC(4), MIL(3), @HOU(3), @NYM(4), CIN(3), ATL(3)
Potential Scenario: Split CIN, 3-1 vs. CHC, 1-2 vs. MIL, 4-3 road trip, 4-2 final homestand (13-9)
Tiebreaker Advantage: STL, ARI, PHI (HTH record)

Milwaukee (70-71)
Remaining Games (21): ATL(2), NYM(3), @PIT(3), @WAS(3), @CIN(3), HOU(3), SD(3)
Potential Scenario: Win each remaining series & go 5-1 on final homestand. (15-6)
Tiebreaker Advantage: LAD, PIT (HTH record); ARI (NL Win pct)

Philadelphia (70-71)
Remaining Games (21): FLA(2), @HOU(4), @NYM(3), ATL(3), WAS(3), @FLA(3), @WAS(3)
Potential Scenario: Split FLA, 6-1 vs HOU & NYM, 4-2 homestand, 4-2 final roadtrip. (15-6)
Tiebreaker Advantage: MIL, STL, ARI (HTH record)

Arizona (69-72)
Remaining Games (21): LAD(2), SF(3), SD(3), @COL(4), @SF(3), CHC(3), COL(3)
Potential Scenario: Split LAD, 5-1 vs. SF & SD, 5-2 road trip, 5-1 final homestand (16-5)
Tiebreaker Advantage: LAD

In most circumstances, tiebreaker priority - in a multiple-team scenario - would go PHI, with MIL/STL/LAD in some order next tier depending on which combination of teams remain, then PIT, and finally ARI.


DISCLAIMER: I recognize the seemingly infinite number of permutations involved in the remaining 21-22 games amongst six teams.  For all we know, the 2nd wild card team will finish 10 games ahead of the 3rd place WC team, and the above is moot.  I'm not trying to start a debate over individual game outcomes, e.g. "no way are the Brewers going to lose a game to the Mets," "derp, derp," "etc."   I'm simply presenting a reasonable scenario where you could have multiple teams tied for the final WC spot going into the last week (and perhaps at the end) of the season.

[Lennys Tap]

Cabrera currently leading in batting average and RBI's.    Still not much of a contest?

Cabrera is the best hitter in the game today. With Albert Pujols and (young) Frank Thomas, among the 3 best right handed hitters in the last 40 years. That said, he's a liability at 3rd base when healthy and seriously sub par when playing a little hurt (as he is today). Trout is an elite fielder at an important position and an elite baserunner - reminiscent of the pre-steroid Barry Bonds. My vote goes to the 5 tool guy.

[tower912]

Trout is an amazing ballplayer.   I haven't said otherwise.   The interesting thing is who will be MVP if neither the Tigers nor the Angels make the playoffs.     And for the record, I held out a long time but Leyland needs to be fired.   The Tigers have no heart and Leyland is managing without passion or intelligence right now.     Victor Martinez and Inge were the clubhouse leaders last year.    Tigers traded Inge (and kept Rayburn, oy) and VMart's absence, while it led to the Fielder signing, is more evident in the lack of clutch hitting from anyone.   His influence led to the Tigers actually grinding out at-bats last year.     4 consecutive hits in the second inning last night led to one run.    If I had $1 for every time the Tigers have failed to get the runner in from 3rd with less than two outs this year, I could make a house payment.    This is more frustrating for a Detroit fan than the 2008 Lions.    We knew they sucked, the only question was how bad.    For a team with this much talent to underperform it by this much.......Leyland must go and the next coach has got to come in chewing iron and crapping nails. 

[NavinRJohnson]

As of this morning, 19 of 30 teams are within 3.5 games of a playoff spot (and above .500). Take away the second WC spot and that number of teams in contention drops to 12. 60% increase in teams playing meaningful games in September. Not too shabby.

[Bocephys]

Cabrera currently leading in batting average and RBI's.    Still not much of a contest?

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/28887/al-mvp-debate-cabrera-versus-trout

[buckchuckler]

That does a great job of summing up Trout's candidacy. 

[Benny B]

This is right. The Brewers are also team that will always have the added complication to any deal(s) or non-deal(s) of needing to get fans through the turnstiles. They really cannot afford to write of seasons or portions of seasons if they can help it, as some larger market teams can. Obviously, if they are 15 out at the deadline, your sucking wind and you have no choice but to salvage what you can via trade, but if they are middle of the road, MA and DM are for the most part try to compete.

Melvin is not stupid enough to make a decision based on some surprise 9 game hot streak. He knows what he has, just as he knows what the remaining schedule is, etc. They have a decent lineup, including a guy that could be the MVP again, formidable rotation (if healthy), and a bullpen that last year was a strength, and cannot possibly perform worse than it has thus far (I hope not anyway). If a team matching that description is sitting 4-5 back at the deadline, however you got there' will at worst stand pat, and at best try to add a piece or two. Or, maybe even a little of both, like trading a K-rod for a player that could potentially help in another area right away, as an example.

Every win counts the same no matter when they happen. Particularly with the expanded playoffs, if you think you have a chance to play meaningful games in September, if you're the Milwaukee Brewers, you have little choice but to go for it (Ina responsible way of course).

Or you keep the K-Rod and trade away an ace starting pitcher for an everyday SS, perhaps?


That sound you might have heard was my hindsight analyzer exploding just now.

[GGGG]

Is Segura really going to be the everyday SS next year?  I guess he probably should be...but I wouldn't mind a decent veteran backup.  I like Gonzalez, but they aren't picking up his option at $4M.

[tower912]

Brewer fans, when Prince played 1st base for you, was he able to dig the ball out of the dirt?  1/2 dozen times in the last couple of weeks he has fanned on throws skipping in.

[chapman]

Brewer fans, when Prince played 1st base for you, was he able to dig the ball out of the dirt?  1/2 dozen times in the last couple of weeks he has fanned on throws skipping in.

He wasn't half bad at that.  His defensive shortcomings were a range issue more than anything.

Is Segura really going to be the everyday SS next year?  I guess he probably should be...but I wouldn't mind a decent veteran backup.  I like Gonzalez, but they aren't picking up his option at $4M.

If they sign a veteran utility guy he maybe goes to AAA to start the season. Probably not though.  Has held his own defensively and the lineup is strong enough to let him learn to hit in the 8 spot if he doesn't tank it in the spring.

[Lennys Tap]

Brewer fans, when Prince played 1st base for you, was he able to dig the ball out of the dirt?  1/2 dozen times in the last couple of weeks he has fanned on throws skipping in.

Saw the one he missed today - it didn't look very difficult and he wasn't even close.

Another question on Prince. Is he really a vegetarian? At what, maybe 5'11", 325, that's a hell of a lot of hay every day.

[MUBurrow]

Saw the one he missed today - it didn't look very difficult and he wasn't even close.

Another question on Prince. Is he really a vegetarian? At what, maybe 5'11", 325, that's a hell of a lot of hay every day.

so the story goes. he allegedly read skinny bitch and the rest was history.

[MerrittsMustache]

As of this morning, 19 of 30 teams are within 3.5 games of a playoff spot (and above .500). Take away the second WC spot and that number of teams in contention drops to 12. 60% increase in teams playing meaningful games in September. Not too shabby.

Sure, there are a lot of teams still in the race but does anyone else feel like it cheapens the playoffs since a lot of the teams still in contention have no business being in contention for a playoff spot, specifically in the NL?

That said, if the Cubs were hovering around .500 but playing games that mattered, maybe I'd be singing a different tune.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Sure, there are a lot of teams still in the race but does anyone else feel like it cheapens the playoffs since a lot of the teams still in contention have no business being in contention for a playoff spot, specifically in the NL?

In my opinion, yes and no.

I was originally against the second wild card, (as I was against the first wild card).  If I had my druthers, I would like there to be two divisions in each league, with the West winner playing the East winner for a chance to advance to the World Series.  (I also don't want interleague play or for the All-Star game to determine home field, but have no problem with the DH; I basically want baseball from 1987 again).

That said, I feel the second wild card actually cheapens the first wild card, almost- but not entirely- correcting a wrong.

[chapman]

Sure, there are a lot of teams still in the race but does anyone else feel like it cheapens the playoffs since a lot of the teams still in contention have no business being in contention for a playoff spot, specifically in the NL?

That said, if the Cubs were hovering around .500 but playing games that mattered, maybe I'd be singing a different tune.

Yes.  The wild card chase is more exciting, though I suspect the one game playoff will be a big letdown after all the build-up of the race to get in.  And the first round system of the wild card team hosting the top seed first in a 2-3 is ridiculous.  


My idea for the whole “not enough teams make the playoffs” issue would be a rotation system; every 4-7 years (preferably closer to the 7) they should double the playoff size to 8 per league and play an extra best of 5 round.  That way the small market teams can always try to make a run in the year when the playoffs expand, you’d see a ton of hype and excitement, but the “cheapening” of the playoff system would only come around once every few years and we'd keep the 4 teams per league format in other years.

[reinko]

Frack it, I will bring it up.  Thoughts on this Brewers run?  ESPN has them as a statistically 9% chance to make the playoffs, up from a .1% a month ago.

 

[MUfan12]

Frack it, I will bring it up.  Thoughts on this Brewers run?  ESPN has them as a statistically 9% chance to make the playoffs, up from a .1% a month ago.

Glad to be able to scoreboard watch, but it's still a huge longshot.

They're gonna have to play near perfect ball over these next 10, since St. Louis has 6 with the Astros and 3 with the Cubs.

[NavinRJohnson]

Sure, there are a lot of teams still in the race but does anyone else feel like it cheapens the playoffs since a lot of the teams still in contention have no business being in contention for a playoff spot, specifically in the NL?

That said, if the Cubs were hovering around .500 but playing games that mattered, maybe I'd be singing a different tune.

[Hards Alumni]

Frack it, I will bring it up.  Thoughts on this Brewers run?  ESPN has them as a statistically 9% chance to make the playoffs, up from a .1% a month ago.

 

I blame you.

[buckchuckler]

In my opinion, yes and no.

I was originally against the second wild card, (as I was against the first wild card).  If I had my druthers, I would like there to be two divisions in each league, with the West winner playing the East winner for a chance to advance to the World Series.  (I also don't want interleague play or for the All-Star game to determine home field, but have no problem with the DH; I basically want baseball from 1987 again).

That said, I feel the second wild card actually cheapens the first wild card, almost- but not entirely- correcting a wrong.

I think I disagree, since the two wild cards will have to play it out to play a division champ.  I like how it puts more emphasis on the division and challenges the Wild Cards a bit more.

[MerrittsMustache]

I think I disagree, since the two wild cards will have to play it out to play a division champ.  I like how it puts more emphasis on the division and challenges the Wild Cards a bit more.

Personally, I'd like to see 2 divisions in each league and 2 Wild Cards in each league. The WC teams play the division winners best of 5 in a 2-1-2 format (i.e. only 1 home game for the Wild Card teams). Give the division winners a distinct advantage in the LDS.

[MUBurrow]

I think I disagree, since the two wild cards will have to play it out to play a division champ.  I like how it puts more emphasis on the division and challenges the Wild Cards a bit more.

I think thats what he meant by righting a wrong - ie making it harder for a wild card team to make a deep run. I'm on board with this train of thought (unless I'm misreading every one). In addition to having to win the one game playoff, there's no overstating how important it is to take the WC winner's rotation out of schedule.  Most teams are in the WC because they don't have a ton of pitching depth, and you basically force that team to use 4 SPs in the first two rounds.

[tower912]

OK, shout it out if you had Oakland winning the AL West..... (crickets)

[nyg]

Texas Rangers in first place for 178 days, then get swept by Oakland to lose the Division.  Longest stay in front, then lose, in MLB history.

Tonight Yankees/Sox, then Orioles/Rays for first place.   Yanks lose, O's win, then a one game playoff.  Exciting stuff for MLB.

Bobby V of Sox to be canned after the game, so lets see what he does tonight with his lineup.  Go O's......