2012 MLB Thread

[nyg]

Tiger fans knew about Infante.   Thanx for the tip about Sanchez.   He may be this years Doug Fister.    Sanchez is from the same home town as Cabrera.   Brantly is a left handed hitting catcher who is making great strides defensively, hits for average but not power yet.    Blocked at the big league level by Avila.     Turner has been a crown jewel in the Tigers organization the last couple of years.    Tiger fans live in fear that he is another Smoltz.    Second base and the 5th spot in the rotation have been Detroit's two big weaknesses.    This trade fixes them both.    The Marlins got a couple of good young players.    And don't think Flynn is just a body.    Tall lefty who throws in the low 90's, just hasn't been able to master command yet.   

Thanks.  Turner is being assigned to Triple AAA for a few starts, then will get a call-up.  Now wait and see if Marlins make any additional trades by next Tuesday.

[NavinRJohnson]

Anyone watch the Brewers tonight? K-Rod blew 3 run lead in 9th to lose to PHI 7-6. Last straw. They need to sell.

Yes, but unfortunately K-Rod was one of the pieces that was absolutely for sale. He's been terrible since they put him in the closer role. Maybe that's good though since he was very good as a set up man. Perhaps this can facilitate a move back to that role with a contender. You could see how badly he has wanted to get back to closing games, and I questioned just how agreeable he would be to moving back to a set up role. Maybe this will help.

Other than that, I fully expect to see Grienke (even though I think he should sign the Brewers extension offer), and Wolf traded by this weekend. If not for going on the DL, Marcum's list could be in that list as well. Be that as it may, 2 SPs and a closer/set up man should net pretty decent return.

[Benny B]

There's no way they get Profar...He's the number one prospect in baseball the Rangers won't give him up. Olt on the other hand is very possible and my hope, he could be big time.

Torrealba and Napoli are FA's at the end of this year... not sure if the Rangers have many C prospects in their system, but I think Lewis being done for the season might entice the Rangers to consider some sort of multi-player trade involving Profar, Greinke & Maldonado.  That would give the Rangers the rotation help they need now and a promising, young player they can control for another 6 years.  Milwaukee gets the SS they need and gives up a position player where they have good depth.  Throw in a PTBNL to balance things out, and voila... Rangers are WS champs this year, and Brewers are WS champs in two years. 

If Greinke really likes Milwaukee, he'll accept the trade to Texas and simply re-sign with Milwaukee after the season (with the new CBA, Milwaukee no longer would have to forfeit a draft pick to Texas to do so)... if he doesn't, the Brewers never had a chance to resign him.  I said it once, I'll say it again.... if I'm Greinke and I want to be in Milwaukee, I tell Melvin I'll take his 5y/$100 offer, but I'll sign it in November 10; in the meantime, use me in a trade -- not only do I get a chance to win a ring now, I can help get the team I'm playing on for the next five years (and eventually for whom I'll be the scouting director someday) some much needed young talent which only helps me in my quest to win another ring soon.

[QuetteHoops]

Torrealba and Napoli are FA's at the end of this year... not sure if the Rangers have many C prospects in their system, but I think Lewis being done for the season might entice the Rangers to consider some sort of multi-player trade involving Profar, Greinke & Maldonado.  That would give the Rangers the rotation help they need now and a promising, young player they can control for another 6 years.  Milwaukee gets the SS they need and gives up a position player where they have good depth.  Throw in a PTBNL to balance things out, and voila... Rangers are WS champs this year, and Brewers are WS champs in two years. 

If Greinke really likes Milwaukee, he'll accept the trade to Texas and simply re-sign with Milwaukee after the season (with the new CBA, Milwaukee no longer would have to forfeit a draft pick to Texas to do so)... if he doesn't, the Brewers never had a chance to resign him.  I said it once, I'll say it again.... if I'm Greinke and I want to be in Milwaukee, I tell Melvin I'll take his 5y/$100 offer, but I'll sign it in November 10; in the meantime, use me in a trade -- not only do I get a chance to win a ring now, I can help get the team I'm playing on for the next five years (and eventually for whom I'll be the scouting director someday) some much needed young talent which only helps me in my quest to win another ring soon.

I would do Grienke and Maldanado for Profar in heartbeat it just isn't very realistic...Teams just don't give up the best prospect in baseball for two months of a pitcher and a backup catcher. Especially ones ran as well as the Rangers, I think a more reasonable return would be an Olt or a prospect in that range and a close to Major League ready arm. Which is still a very good return, I would be ecstatic if the brewers were able to get Olt of it.

[Benny B]

I would do Grienke and Maldanado for Profar in heartbeat it just isn't very realistic...Teams just don't give up the best prospect in baseball for two months of a pitcher and a backup catcher. Especially ones ran as well as the Rangers, I think a more reasonable return would be an Olt or a prospect in that range and a close to Major League ready arm. Which is still a very good return, I would be ecstatic if the brewers were able to get Olt of it.

I don't know that I'd call Maldonado a "backup" catcher.  He's been the everyday starter since Lucroy went down, and to be batting .278 mostly out of the 8-hole in regular work at the ML level is pretty damn good (it would be good enough for 7th place amongst qualified players)... not perennial all-star good, but MLB starter good.  He's only throwing out baserunners at a 25% clip, but I'm willing to give him a pass on that (his MiLB average is closer to 45%).  While Maldonado isn't yet a proven commodity at the ML level, he's certainly demonstrated enough to show he is beyond ML ready.  On the other hand, "#1 prospect in MLB" could mean anything or nothing at all -- Profar (the #4 prospect in MLB, according to MLB) is, and remains, a complete unknown at the ML level.

Of the top 20 prospects in the Rangers' system, only one is a catcher - Jorge Alfaro who isn't exactly tearing it up at high-A right now.  He's at least 3-4 years away from being ML-ready.  The only other C on their 40-man is Luis Martinez who's a career .267 hitter in 5+ years in the minors and hit .203 in his first (and only) ML stint - 22 games - last year.

If you need a young, everyday catcher who you can control through 2019 and a proven SP who will help keep your 2012 postseason push on track, this is win-win trade.  Bear in mind that the Rangers have $11M committed to Andrus at SS through 2014.  You're not going to hold back Profar until 2015, you're not going to sit him on the bench in Arlington (especially when you already have a young utility guy in Gonzalez) and you're not going to dump Andrus (who's having his best season yet) after signing a 3yr contract at the beginning of this year.

[Bocephys]

I don't know that I'd call Maldonado a "backup" catcher.  He's been the everyday starter since Lucroy went down, and to be batting .278 mostly out of the 8-hole in regular work at the ML level is pretty damn good (it would be good enough for 7th place amongst qualified players)... not perennial all-star good, but MLB starter good.  He's only throwing out baserunners at a 25% clip, but I'm willing to give him a pass on that (his MiLB average is closer to 45%).  While Maldonado isn't yet a proven commodity at the ML level, he's certainly demonstrated enough to show he is beyond ML ready.  On the other hand, "#1 prospect in MLB" could mean anything or nothing at all -- Profar (the #4 prospect in MLB, according to MLB) is, and remains, a complete unknown at the ML level.

Of the top 20 prospects in the Rangers' system, only one is a catcher - Jorge Alfaro who isn't exactly tearing it up at high-A right now.  He's at least 3-4 years away from being ML-ready.  The only other C on their 40-man is Luis Martinez who's a career .267 hitter in 5+ years in the minors and hit .203 in his first (and only) ML stint - 22 games - last year.

If you need a young, everyday catcher who you can control through 2019 and a proven SP who will help keep your 2012 postseason push on track, this is win-win trade.  Bear in mind that the Rangers have $11M committed to Andrus at SS through 2014.  You're not going to hold back Profar until 2015, you're not going to sit him on the bench in Arlington (especially when you already have a young utility guy in Gonzalez) and you're not going to dump Andrus (who's having his best season yet) after signing a 3yr contract at the beginning of this year.

You are grossly overrating Maldonado.  We get you think he's cute, but him and a two month rental are not going to bring in Profar, who will also be under team control until 2019.  They would need a pitcher that could be under team control for a bit longer to make that deal.  Keith Law confirmed as much today.

1. Jurickson Profar, SS
Age: 19
Level: Double-A (Frisco)

Too good to trade? Profar looks as if he could step in as a major league shortstop by Opening Day and be league-average or better, with superstar upside. That combination of immediate return and potential peak could make it impossible for Texas to get sufficient return in any deal; they would have to receive more than one established big leaguer with multiple years of control remaining to come close to the potential value of the first six years of Profar's career.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

I would do Grienke and Maldanado for Profar in heartbeat it just isn't very realistic...Teams just don't give up the best prospect in baseball for two months of a pitcher and a backup catcher. Especially ones ran as well as the Rangers, I think a more reasonable return would be an Olt or a prospect in that range and a close to Major League ready arm. Which is still a very good return, I would be ecstatic if the brewers were able to get Olt of it.

The only reason Olt is being shopped is because his spot at 3rd is blocked by Beltre. If MIL aquires him he is blocked by Ramirez.

[QuetteHoops]

Maldanado is a solid catcher and throwing out 25% of runners is actually pretty solid at the major league, but all of his minor league hitting stats indicate ( besides one solid year last year)  that he is probably hitting a little over his head right now. He's the same age as Lucroy and could make a great tandem at catcher for the brewers but for now I'm not so sure he is more then a backup albeit a good one.

As far as Profar goes, almost every updated prospect rankings and article I've read lists him as the best prospect in baseball and if not the top player, definitely the top position player. As far as the Andrus situation there are rumblings that he would move to 2B/3B and they would shop Beltre/Kinsler, realistically they could keep all 4 and make it work. A 19 SS putting up the numbers he is putting up at the AA level are ridiculous he is a pretty safe bet to be an All-Star at a premier position for a long time. It would just not be a good move for the Rangers to trade him for Grienke even if you threw in Maldanado.

[QuetteHoops]

The only reason Olt is being shopped is because his spot at 3rd is blocked by Beltre. If MIL aquires him he is blocked by Ramirez.

You could move either to 1st without a problem, otherwise there are rumblings that the Dodgers are pretty interested in Ramirez right now. I guess we'll have to see how it all works out, needless to say I don't know if I have much faith in Melvin.

[MUBurrow]

You could move either to 1st without a problem, otherwise there are rumblings that the Dodgers are pretty interested in Ramirez right now. I guess we'll have to see how it all works out, needless to say I don't know if I have much faith in Melvin.

This. I don't see Melvin and Attanasio making the deals that could really improve the club 2-3 years down the road because they're terrible of "selling" and seeing 1/3 the gate get lopped off. Unfortunately, I see this being a middling organization for a couple years until attendance goes down to where they fear it would be anyway, then maybe they're willing to sell and rebuild. With the new CBA, if you want good pieces you're going to have to give up players with more than 2 months of team control, and I just don't see the Brewers pioneering that.

[MUBurrow]

woke up to both good and bad news today.

Good - Cole Hamels is going to ink an extension with the Phillies. Makes Greinke easily the top pitcher on the market.

Bad - Dodgers traded for Hanley Ramirez. He might be at short in the short term, but will almost certainly move to third since I doubt LAD is ready to move on from Dee Gordon.  So any interest they might have had in Aramis is probably gone. Then again, they didn't give up a ton for three years of Hanley (although his contract probably had something to do with it) - they gave up Eovaldi who entered the season as one of their top 10 propsects and McGough, who was probably between 20-30.

[Hards Alumni]

"Doug hasn't said anything to me about them trading me," Greinke said. "I'm assuming I'll still be here. Obviously, something could happen. But I enjoy playing here and I don't really look forward to being traded from this place. It's just baseball. I won't take it personal if it happens."

I know this is something players just say, but Zach Grienke is one of the most honest players I have heard give a press conference.

[GGGG]

Is Aramis Ramirez contract considered a "bad" contract?  Isn't he basically doing what he normally does?  If they get rid of him, what are the options at third?

I don't think the Brewers are in a complete rebuild mode.  Despite the likely loss of Greinke, if they build back up their bull pen, they could compete for a wild card as early as next year.  I think they are pretty much where Cincinnati was last year - coming off a division championship, but too many holes and too many injuries.  They fixed things and turned it around this year.

[NavinRJohnson]

I think trading ARam is highly unlikely, but if its possible, I gotta think the Yankees could potentially enter the picture today as well. Could certainly serve in a DH role down the line as well, given that he has a couple years left. Guy seems to be good for .285, 25 and 100 just about every year. No sign of that changing much this year at least.

Grienke is obviously the tall pole in the tent, that will likely dictate any other significant moves the Brewers make.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

I think trading ARam is highly unlikely, but if its possible, I gotta think the Yankees could potentially enter the picture today as well. Could certainly serve in a DH role down the line as well, given that he has a couple years left. Guy seems to be good for .285, 25 and 100 just about every year. No sign of that changing much this year at least.

Grienke is obviously the tall pole in the tent, that will likely dictate any other significant moves the Brewers make.

Exactly what I thought, when I saw that A-Rod is out 6-8 weeks with a broken hand. They said Eric chavez would fill in though.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

The Braves GM stated that they are done trying to get Dempster. Now that Hamels is off the market, do the Braves make a move?

[Benny B]

Thoughts about the past 12 hours.

Brewers' Bullpen: This is what happens when you commit too much to starting pitching that you lose focus on your bullpen.  Solid bullpen arms that are reliable in late innings are cheap to acquire.  I'll concede that Axford's and K-Rod's performance this year has been moderately shocking, but nothing about what we've seen from Parra, Loe and Veras should come as a surprise to anyone.

Houston:  WTF?  Seriously.  Are you stockpiling cash?  Is Jim Crane getting divorced?  At least the Marlins win a world series before they go into dump mode.  You're the 3rd largest metro area in the country and that's exactly the number of people on your active roster who are being paid more than a renewal salary -- three.  If there's an award for getting your active payroll under $20M, congratulations.  (In all honesty though, I know exactly what you're doing... and I'm glad you're going to the AL West next year).

Cole Hamels: The Phillies overpaid, but that's a luxury a team with the 2nd highest payroll in MLB has.  By nearly every career statistic, Cain and Hamels are nearly identical pitchers.  However, Hamels' 2012 stats are mostly in-line with his trend; Cain's stats have been improving the past few years.

Zach Greinke: It's been great knowing you Zach, but you're going to get paid; unfortunately, it's not going to be in Milwaukee.  Your primary suitors this winter will be Detroit, Atlanta, St. Louis, Washington, and the "mystery team."  My guess is you go to the mystery team (and if you read between the lines, you'll know exactly who I'm talking about).

Ryan Dempster: Either the guy really likes the Cubs or he's using his 10-5 rights to extort more money or a contract from someone.  Probably the latter.

A-Ram Ram: I don't think he's going anywhere.  He's due $10M next year, $16M in 2014.  Unless the Brewers take on some of that salary (which they won't), that's a difficult trade to make or one that yields little in return.  The Brewers need a 3B and a clean-up hitter... Ramirez might be expensive but he's one contract that's filling two significant needs.

K-Rod & Rickie Weeks: Will a team buy into the "change of scenery" argument?  In K-Rod's case, you're going to either pay his salary and get a AA prospect or you're going to dump his salary for a PTBNL.  Unfortunately, there's probably not a lot of demand out there for an oft-injured, .250 career hitting 2B having his worst hitting season yet.

Cory Hart: For someone who could be a team's missing piece at OF, 1B or DH, a $10M salary in 2013 is a relative bargain.  Brewers could probably pick up the remainder of his 2012 salary and get a high-end AA or AAA prospect in return.

[GGGG]

Why would the Brewers trade Hart?  He has another year left, and as you say, is a "relative bargain?" 

They can't throw the towel in on *next* year.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

At the risk of sounding like Yogi Berra, part of being good is knowing when you are bad.

If the Brewers can sell a few pieces and get some value, they might get lucky and restock and maybe get bounce-back years out of Rickie/Ax/Lucroy in 2013-2014.

Honestly, other than gutting it, I think that's all they can do. They are caught right in the middle, and the draft doesn't work quickly enough in MLB.

Sell 3 or 4 of: greinke, k-rod, axford (if you get a good offer), Hart, weeks, etc.

The guys they do keep might have bounce back years, so if they get lucky with some of the young guys they trade for, they could be competitive in 2014.

[Benny B]

Why would the Brewers trade Hart?  He has another year left, and as you say, is a "relative bargain?" 

They can't throw the towel in on *next* year.

Gamel will go back to 1B next year.  And I suppose I'm assuming Logan Schafer is ready to go in 2013; so your OF corps is set (Braun, Schaefer, Gomez/Aoki).  If Cory Hart is still on the team, where do you plug him in?

Basically, I'm replacing Hart with Schafer, and in doing so, freeing up $9.5M to be spent on other needs (e.g. bullpen) where the marginal return is going to be exponentially greater than the marginal loss of Hart/Schafer.

[GGGG]

Gamel will go back to 1B next year.  And I suppose I'm assuming Logan Schafer is ready to go in 2013; so your OF corps is set (Braun, Schaefer, Gomez/Aoki).  If Cory Hart is still on the team, where do you plug him in?

Basically, I'm replacing Hart with Schafer, and in doing so, freeing up $9.5M to be spent on other needs (e.g. bullpen) where the marginal return is going to be exponentially greater than the marginal loss of Hart/Schafer.

The only issue with this is that I am not completely sold on Gamel.  He hasn't put enough at bats together to lead me to believe he is the permanent answer at 1B....especially coming off a knee injury.

[Benny B]

The only issue with this is that I am not completely sold on Gamel.  He hasn't put enough at bats together to lead me to believe he is the permanent answer at 1B....especially coming off a knee injury.

Probably not a permanent answer, but Hunter Morris at AA is.  He's probably a year or two away, so Gamel holds the line for another year and if he's not the answer, you trade him or maybe try him out back at 3B when Ramirez is up.

I can't imagine the combined stats of Gamel and Schafer are going to be worse than Hart & Aoki combined.

[MUBurrow]

Is Aramis Ramirez contract considered a "bad" contract?  Isn't he basically doing what he normally does?  If they get rid of him, what are the options at third?

This year is fine, and even next year at $10 mil is okay. Its that third year at $16 mil that sucks. It'll be his age 36 season. My thought on dealing him is that this time next year, no one will want him at all, whereas this year a richer team like the Dodgers or Yankees might take him on and swallow that last year because of the reasonable $10 mil he's owed in between.

[GGGG]

Meanwhile...

http://deadspin.com/5929099/carlos-gomez-completely-rounded-the-bases-before-learning-his-home-run-sailed-foul

[GGGG]

This year is fine, and even next year at $10 mil is okay. Its that third year at $16 mil that sucks. It'll be his age 36 season. My thought on dealing him is that this time next year, no one will want him at all, whereas this year a richer team like the Dodgers or Yankees might take him on and swallow that last year because of the reasonable $10 mil he's owed in between.

Maybe I am just too optimistic in thinking the Brewers aren't really that far from being back in the playoffs next year.