2012 MLB Thread

[jmayer1]

Anyone catch this "slide" by Fat Boy yesterday?

I feel for the second baseman there:

Aren't you clever? Did you think of that nickname all by yourself or did your kid help you out with that?

[Otule's Glass Eye]

If they win this next week then instead of trading away Greinke trade for some bullpen help and hope to make a run like the Cardinals made last year.

[Bocephys]

If they win this next week then instead of trading away Greinke trade for some bullpen help and hope to make a run like the Cardinals made last year.

Thats been their plan for the past month. Poo or get off the pot already.

[wadesworld]

If they win this next week then instead of trading away Greinke trade for some bullpen help and hope to make a run like the Cardinals made last year.

Heck no. No matter what they do next week trade Greinke, Marcum, and KRod. The Brewers, even if they had a better bullpen, are nowhere near what the Cardinals were last year. And with just 1 game for the 2 Wild Cards, the Brewers would play 1 game and be bounced (assuming they miraculously made the playoffs, which they wouldn't). Teams that rely on the long ball to score (the definition of the Brewers offense since as long as I can remember) can make it to the Playoffs if they have multiple guys who can go yard on any given at bat (Braun, Fielder, Hart, Weeks before his injury last year) and have the right roll players who can get on base in front of them (Morgan last year, Hairston). The Brewers have nobody that gets on in front of them consistently (Aoki is OK, but he's at .287 while Morgan and Hairston were at over .300 last year for much of the year). This year we have Braun and Hart who can hit a home run on any given at bat (but even Hart's a stretch). Even teams like the Brewers last year, who are stacked wirh power, get bounced unless they can also manufacture runs. Compare the lineups and rotations of the Cardinals and the Brewers and the Cards make the Brewers look like a little league team:

1) Furcal vs. Aoki - Furcal and it's not even close
2) Schumaker vs. Morgan/Gomez - Schumaker and it's not even close (this year's production from Morgan is horrible)
3) Pujols vs. Braun - Push
4) Berkman vs. Ramirez - Berkman by a decent margin
5) Holliday vs. Hart - Holliday by a slight margin
6) Freese vs. Weeks - Freese and it isn't even close
7) Molina vs. Maldonado/Lucroy - Molina by a decent margin (and I hate him and love Lucroy, but Molina is the best all around catcher in baseball)
8) Theriot/Punto vs. Ransom - Theriot/Punto and it's not even close
The Cardinals also had John Jay, Daniel Descalso, and Allan Craig coming off their bench, which is much better than the Brewers Travis Ishikawa, Cezar Isturas, and George Kottaras. Their lineup is MUCH more well rounded and they had a much better approach at the plate. There were no black holes and no easy outs in their lineup (like there is with our 2, 6, and 8 holes - obviously 9 will be on any NL team). They didn't just get hot, they played the way they were capable of playing and put it all together at the right time. That team was stacked and built to win in the Playoffs. This year's Brewers are nowhere near that, even with bullpen help.

Pitching Rotation:
1) Carpenter vs. Greinke - Carpenter but only by a small margin
2) Garcia vs. Gallardo - Gallardo by a small margin
3) Lohse vs. Marcum - Push in my opinion
4) Jackson vs. Wolf - Jackson by a decent margin
5) I don't even remember who the Cardinals #5 starter was without Wainright last year, but my guess is they were more consistent than Fiers/Estrada (not needed for the Playoffs, but definitely needed to get there)

Bullpen:
Salas, Lynn, Dotel, Rzepcyznski, Motte, Westbrook. Every one of those pitchers is better than any bullpen pitchers for the Brewers, including KRod. We'd have to trade for an entire new bullpen.

The Cardinals were just a very good team who put it all together. The Brewers are just not a very good team, and even if they put it all together from now until October, they will be watching the Playoffs at home. Try to get Greinke to resign before the deadline, and if he doesn't trade him. Trade Marcum and KRod for sure. Weeks if anyone is that desperate that they think he can miraculously figure it out would be awesome to get something for as well.

[GGGG]

This is about the time that the Brewers went on their big run last year....but they were still about 5 games above .500 when they started that run.  And the Brewers have enough of a starting rotation that they can beat anyone in the playoffs if they get hot enough.  I just don't think they are going to get hot.

[MUfan12]

This is about the time that the Brewers went on their big run last year....but they were still about 5 games above .500 when they started that run.  And the Brewers have enough of a starting rotation that they can beat anyone in the playoffs if they get hot enough.  I just don't think they are going to get hot.

Offense isn't consistent enough, and we all know how awful the pen has been.

They have had terrible production from the 2 hole, as opposed to last year when Morgan was over .300. Unless he/Gomez and Rickie get really hot, I just don't see it.

[The Process]

Aren't you clever? Did you think of that nickname all by yourself or did your kid help you out with that?

Yes I am. Thanks for asking!

[MUBurrow]

agree with most of what's being said. even beyond trying to compare to last year's cards, just compare this year's Brewers to last year. This year is worse in every way - lineup, rotation, and bullpen - and last year's team was always fighting an uphill battle in the playoffs.
I think the Crew should look to trade Greinke and K-Rod obviously, and I guess it would be great to get something for Marcum, but he won't be pitching before the deadline, so I doubt it happens. I also think they should try to offload Aramis on the Dodgers, who have been said to be very interested. If the Brewers can get a prospect or two and get out from under that contract, that would be great. He will be affordable next year when the Brewers won't compete anyway, but that third year there is no way he will be worth the money. Finally, I don't get why the Brewers keep saying "Corey Hart is an important part of our future" unless there's some indication he'll take a hometown discount after his deal is up after next season. With multiple teams interested, he's like Aramis in that the team won't be competitive while it would otherwise make sense to have him on board. If you can get a good return on him for decent Double-A level prospects, I don't see why not. I don't think you cut bait on Weeks though, he's good value when considering his production every year up to this season, and considering he's under team control through 2015, I dont think you sell low right now given this year's anomaly.

[tower912]

Anyone catch this "slide" by Fat Boy yesterday?

I feel for the second baseman there:

Saw it in person.   Even cooler when you see it at the stadium with your 5 year old screaming with joy.   

[Hards Alumni]

Back to the Grienke topic.  If that contract is out there for him does he bother to take it?  A good part of the reason he wanted out of KC was that they were perennial losers with no look of improvement. 

That being said, the only thing the Brewers have going for them right now is Ryan Braun.  I forsee a lot of losing in the future.

[MerrittsMustache]

Back to the Grienke topic.  If that contract is out there for him does he bother to take it?  A good part of the reason he wanted out of KC was that they were perennial losers with no look of improvement. 

That being said, the only thing the Brewers have going for them right now is Ryan Braun.  I forsee a lot of losing in the future.

I wouldn't want my team giving $100M to a pitcher who is a headcase and openly admitted that he doesn't try as hard when his team is out of the race. His value is high right now and there are a lot of teams in the race who need starting pitching. Sell. Sell. Sell.

[MerrittsMustache]

Even though many on here have a strong dislike for the Cubs, you have to admit that the heel clicks when the team took the field yesterday was an incredibly cool tribute to Ron Santo.

[Benny B]

Back to the Grienke topic.  If that contract is out there for him does he bother to take it?  A good part of the reason he wanted out of KC was that they were perennial losers with no look of improvement. 

That being said, the only thing the Brewers have going for them right now is Ryan Braun.  I forsee a lot of losing in the future.

Agreed... 70-80 games a year is a lot of losing.

I'm not so sure I'd be willing to throw in the towel on the Brewers' ability to be competitive over the next 3-5 years... 2013-2016 is going to be a complete role reversal from 2006-2010 insomuch as the Brewers have decent pitching depth coming through their system but much less offensive depth.  Narveson and Estrada have been improving every year and are as good as they come at the back end of a rotation; alternatively, either could go to the pen as long relief/in-season depth.  Fiers has been phenomenal; Peralta and Rogers appear like they're starting to get it together at AAA (both are still young); Thornburg has looked pretty damn promising in the majors considering he was pitching at single-A this time last year; Gallardo's under control for a few more years; and Scarpetta and Stinson have been putting up decent numbers at AA.

The bullpen is always going to be a question... primarily, is Axford the second coming of Turnbow or Fingers?  Nevertheless, if you have young, homegrown (read: cheap) arms in the rotation, you can afford to spend on some bullpen arms.

The everyday lineup is going to be anchored by Braun, Gamel and Lucroy for the foreseeable future... that's a pretty decent 3-4-5 for $20M/year.  Weeks, Hart and Ramirez will be off the books in a couple years which would free up $35-40M of payroll.  Logan Schaefer will be the everyday CF as soon as Gomez hits FA in 2014.  But then, the problems start... basically, the Brewers have two types of position players in their farm system: "AAAA" guys who will hit .300 at AAA and .091 in the MLB (Conrad, Bianchi, Green, etc.) and serviceable hitters who are concerns defensively (Farris, Gennett, Maysonet, etc.). The one critically important cog that's missing from the Brewers' system -- an everyday SS.  That's what a Greinke trade needs to yield: preferably Profar (Rangers), Machado (Orioles), Simmons (Atlanta), or even Hechavarria (Blue Jays); although three of those four are likely untouchable.

So in 2014, the Brewers opening day lineup looks something like this:

Rotation -- Some combination of Gallardo, Fiers, Narveson, Estrada, Thornburg, Peralta, Rogers
Closer -- Axford... maybe Rogers
OF: Braun (LF), Schaefer (CF), ?? (RF)
C: Lucroy
IF: Gamel (1B), Farris or Gennett (2B), SS Prospect (via Greinke trade), ?? (3B)

That's not a bad lineup... decent rotation (though lacking a true #1, barring a renaissance by Gallardo), good bats, good defense, plenty of power, but not quite a contending squad.  They'd still need a RF and 3B who can get on base consistently, not to mention a solid bullpen (considering young arms/lack of veterans in the rotation).   However, you've got only $40M in payroll committed to the above (leaving about $50-55M to go out and plug in the remaining pieces, add additional depth or a #1 starter) and trading Weeks and Ramirez should yield - at the very least - some bullpen help. 

But at the end of the day, it doesn't matter what the Brewers do... it matters what the other four teams in the NL Central do.

[MUBurrow]

I really agree with most everything you laid out there, and I think this is the reason why the Brewers need to be willing to throw in the towel on next year, and aim to compete in 2014 or 2015. They can get a nice return of minor leaguers who are much further along in their development if they trade guys like Hart and Aramis this season, rather than hang onto them because they're under contract for one more year. If you deal Aramis to the Dodgers, for instance, you could get back a potential starting piece for 2014-15, as well as open up a ton of salary for free agency in 2014.  Similarly, Hart has been drawing a lot of interest, and while his contract for next year is affordable, it doesnt do you any good if you aren't going to compete anyway. Trade him away, and use that extra year as leverage to get players further along in their development so you aren't restocking on prospects that are new draftees and/or need another 2-3 years of seasoning in the minors.
Also, new rumors have teams interested in Loe and Parra, which makes sense because bullpen help is always needed this time of year. So in addition to trading Greinke, K-Rod, Marcum (if you can get anything for him) deal those relievers. Even if you only get pieces that project to perform similarly in the majors as those two do today (ie right now project for relief/end of the rotation type guys) thats more valuable to you in two years than it is today.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Trade Weeks for as high of a return as you can get this offseason, which is pretty much nothing, but his stock this offseason hopefully would be better than what his current stock is as teams may think he would be in for a rebound year. Give Green his chance until Gennett is ready for a callup next year. Prepare Hunter Morris or maybe Nick Ramirez as the 1B of the future, although I prefer Morris. If they don't decide to stick with Gamel next season maybe give Sean Halton a shot next year before Morris is ready. Dump Morgan and his all-aorund $hitty play and give Schafer a serious try. Keep Gomez as backup used for defensive and baserunning situations. Maybe try to get rid of Hart and keep Aoki in RF. If they trade Greinke at the deadline they should aim for a 3B or SS in return, like Olt, Profar or Machado. If Marcum proves he still has it, keep him. Dump Wolf. Not sure about what to do with ARam though.

Lineup 2 years from now could then look like

1) Profar, SS
2) Aoki, RF
3) Braun, LF
4) ARam(?), 3B
5) Lucroy, C
6) Gamel or Morris, 1B
7) Gennett, 2B, maybe in the 2 spot in the lineup
8) Schafer, CF
9) P

Rotation of

1) Gallardo
2) Thornburg
3) Marcum
4) Peralta
5) Fiers

If Estrada is around he seems better in the bullpen. Jungmann, Bradley, Nelson, Gagnon all in waiting for a spot in case of poor play or injury or maybe put a few of them in the BP. Seems like a young, inexpensive team, which may or may not be better than the current team depending on if all the young guys pay off. Would also give them more $$$ to spend in the future.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Ryan Dumpster I mean Dempster was traded from the Cubs to ATL, top 25 prospect Jacob Turner was in a deal that sent him from DET to MIA, and Ichiro was traded from SEA to the Yankees. Trades picking up heat. Greinke could be gone any day.

[QuetteHoops]

Trade Weeks for as high of a return as you can get this offseason, which is pretty much nothing, but should be better than what his current stock is and maybe give Green his chance until Gennett is ready for a callup next year. Prepare Hunter Morris or maybe Nick Ramirez as the 1B of the future, although I prefer Morris. If they don't decide to stick with Gamel next season maybe give Sean Halton a shot next year before Morris is ready. Dump Morgan and his all-aorund $hitty play and give Schafer a serious try. Keep Gomez as backup used for defensive and baserunning situations. Maybe try to get rid of Hart and keep Aoki in RF. If they trade Greinke at the deadline they should aim for a 3B or SS in return, like Olt, Profar or Machado. If Marcum proves he still has it, keep him. Dump Wolf. Not sure about what to do with ARam though.

Lineup 2 years from now could then look like

1) Profar, SS
2) Aoki, RF
3) Braun, LF
4) ARam(?), 3B
5) Lucroy, C
6) Gamel or Morris, 1B
7) Gennett, 2B, maybe in the 2 spot in the lineup
8) Schafer, CF
9) P

Rotation of

1) Gallardo
2) Thornburg
3) Marcum
4) Peralta
5) Fiers

If Estrada is around he seems better in the bullpen. Jungmann, Bradley, Nelson, Gagnon all in waiting for a spot in case of poor play or injury or maybe put a few of them in the BP. Seems like a young, inexpensive team, which may or may not be better than the current team depending on if all the young guys pay off. Would also give them more $$$ to spend in the future.

There's no way they get Profar...He's the number one prospect in baseball the Rangers won't give him up. Olt on the other hand is very possible and my hope, he could be big time.

[Benny B]

There's no way they get Profar...He's the number one prospect in baseball the Rangers won't give him up. Olt on the other hand is very possible and my hope, he could be big time.

Colby Lewis is out for the season.  Greinke was already an upgrade over two of the Ranger's SP's.  Now he's an upgrade over three.  Regardless, Tejas now has a couple holes to plug in their rotation.

If the Angels make a move in the next day or two, the Rangers get desperate and Profar loses the untouchable.

[nyg]

Ryan Dumpster I mean Dempster was traded from the Cubs to ATL, top 25 prospect Jacob Turner was in a deal that sent him from DET to MIA, and Ichicro was traded from SEA to the Yankees. Trades picking up heat. Greinke could be gone any day.

I am probably the only Marlins fan on this board.  For you Detroit followers, you just picked up two class acts.  Anibel Sanchez is a great pitcher, who was not getting run support and Infante is just one of those infielders that gets the job done no matter where he is at.  Sanchez is in last year of contract, so see what happens at end of year.  Great pickups for the Tigers.  I guess this Jacob Turner is a stud, hopefully in the Josh Johnson mode.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

And I realize no team likely wants anything to do with Weeks so if they trade him they would likely have to pay most of his salary. Haven't heard his name in any trade rumors but I really want him gone. I like Scooter Gennett.

[buckchuckler]

I am probably the only Marlins fan on this board.  For you Detroit followers, you just picked up two class acts.  Anibel Sanchez is a great pitcher, who was not getting run support and Infante is just one of those infielders that gets the job done no matter where he is at.  Sanchez is in last year of contract, so see what happens at end of year.  Great pickups for the Tigers.  I guess this Jacob Turner is a stud, hopefully in the Josh Johnson mode.

Watched Turner pitch against the White Sox yesterday.  Seemed like he had good stuff, but not Josh Johnson stuff.  Seemed like more of a sinkerballer than a power pitcher. 

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Dempster deal to ATL not finalized yet as he isnt sure if he will approve it.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Anyone watch the Brewers tonight? K-Rod blew 3 run lead in 9th to lose to PHI 7-6. Last straw. They need to sell.

[🏀]

I am probably the only Marlins fan on this board.  For you Detroit followers, you just picked up two class acts.  Anibel Sanchez is a great pitcher, who was not getting run support and Infante is just one of those infielders that gets the job done no matter where he is at.  Sanchez is in last year of contract, so see what happens at end of year.  Great pickups for the Tigers.  I guess this Jacob Turner is a stud, hopefully in the Josh Johnson mode.

robmufan is a huge Marlins fan.

[tower912]

Tiger fans knew about Infante.   Thanx for the tip about Sanchez.   He may be this years Doug Fister.    Sanchez is from the same home town as Cabrera.   Brantly is a left handed hitting catcher who is making great strides defensively, hits for average but not power yet.    Blocked at the big league level by Avila.     Turner has been a crown jewel in the Tigers organization the last couple of years.    Tiger fans live in fear that he is another Smoltz.    Second base and the 5th spot in the rotation have been Detroit's two big weaknesses.    This trade fixes them both.    The Marlins got a couple of good young players.    And don't think Flynn is just a body.    Tall lefty who throws in the low 90's, just hasn't been able to master command yet.