2012 MLB Thread

[Otule's Glass Eye]

After yesterday's debacle, I am surprised that Cody Ransom is still on the team, and I would be very close to dumping Morgan as well....but would probably keep him.  Ransom has 78 ABs and struck out 40 times.  What's the point?

I'm sick of Morgan's mistakes he did something a few days earlier that was equally foolish. That gets you benched in HS or college.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Text message I sent to my cousin yesterday (before he threw a single pitch):

"F***ing Manny Parra.  Brewers need to cut him loose."

response:

"Text from 2008"

The Brewers have no bats this year outside of Braun (Lucroy is injured).

Well Ramirez is finally coming around. And Hart has hit so-so.

[MUBurrow]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/brewers-prepared-to-offer-greinke-extension.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Brewers offering Greinke $100M over 5. Very fair offer in terms of what he could get on the market, although his true market value is probably more like $120 over 6. But the AAV is right on. IMO certainly an offer both can be happy about that has a better chance of being enough with Greinke than it might be with a similar players given his potential reluctance to go to bigger markets, etc. I still don't think it gets the job done, and as a Brewers fan honestly kind of hope it doesnt, but nothing to sneeze at - especially for MKE.

[Hards Alumni]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/brewers-prepared-to-offer-greinke-extension.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Brewers offering Greinke $100M over 5. Very fair offer in terms of what he could get on the market, although his true market value is probably more like $120 over 6. But the AAV is right on. IMO certainly an offer both can be happy about that has a better chance of being enough with Greinke than it might be with a similar players given his potential reluctance to go to bigger markets, etc. I still don't think it gets the job done, and as a Brewers fan honestly kind of hope it doesnt, but nothing to sneeze at - especially for MKE.

I would sign Zach to this deal in a second if I was the Brewers.  But all you need to know is that this is a gesture contract to keep the folks in MKE happy.  Just like Prince, it is money, but it isn't close.  Zach will get more than Matt Cain (6 years, $127 Million), and could be the highest paid pitcher ever.

[Benny B]

Heymen - as always - is taking shots in the dark.

If the Brewers are offering Greinke anything right now it's time, not money. In other words probably six or seven years at 15-18M a year (average) with a club option & heavy performance bonuses.

What is going to be the deal maker for Greinke is the opportunity/feasibility to stay in one place for the remainder of his career... both playing and off-field.  There aren't many teams that can offer that as a possibility.

[NavinRJohnson]

I would sign Zach to this deal in a second if I was the Brewers.  But all you need to know is that this is a gesture contract to keep the folks in MKE happy.  Just like Prince, it is money, but it isn't close.  Zach will get more than Matt Cain (6 years, $127 Million), and could be the highest paid pitcher ever.

Most likely correct, but I think there is an element of legitimacy to it...at least moreso than with Sabathia or Prince. Still very little chance, but with those two there was truly a 0% chance they would take it.

He won't get as much as Matt Cain did either -- Grienke is slightly older (not a big deal), and his ERA has been roughly a full point higher the past 3 years -- and he is certainly not going to get what Sabathia has gotten/will get from the Yankees with his original and extended contract.

[🏀]

Grienke isn't looking at Matt Cain money, that's a certain.

$100m/5 years is a nice deal for Zach and the Brewers. I don't think that's something he should be turning down.

[buckchuckler]

I would sign Zach to this deal in a second if I was the Brewers.  But all you need to know is that this is a gesture contract to keep the folks in MKE happy.  Just like Prince, it is money, but it isn't close.  Zach will get more than Matt Cain (6 years, $127 Million), and could be the highest paid pitcher ever.

If Greinke is looking for more than Cain he is nuts.  Cain is just plain better, as well as a year younger.  Cain is a good comparable contract to look at, but if Greinke gets more it is a mistake. 

[Benny B]

Grienke isn't looking at Matt Cain money, that's a certain.

$100m/5 years is a nice deal for Zach and the Brewers. I don't think that's something he should be turning down.

+1.  And if the Brewers actually have that on the table, then Greinke is going to be in a Brewers uniform for a long time.  Honestly, I don't think anything is on the table right now... even if Greinke were willing to sign a deal, the Brewers may trade him any way if they're 10 games out two weeks from now.

Yes, Greinke has a CY... but he hasn't had a season similar to his 2009 performance over the last several years.  Cain, on the other hand, is still improving and has a freshly-rolled perfecto under his belt (granted, that was accomplished after the contract).  If he hits FA according to where he's trending right now, four to five years averaging around $18-21M/year is probably where he ends up signing.

[jmayer1]

Greinke is actually a little better than Cain according to the advanced pitching metrics, although it's really close. I don't see any reason he wouldn't command similar money.

According to fangraphs (sorry for the crappy formatting):

Greinke                  Cain                  Comparison            
                                                
   IP            FIP   XFIP   WAR         IP   FIP   XFIP   WAR         IP   FIP   XFIP   WAR
2004   145.00   3.97   4.36   2.20      2004    -       -       -       -                 2004    -       -       -       -   
2005   183.00   5.80   4.49   2.60      2005   46.10   4.08   4.98   0.70              2005    greinke     cain     greinke     greinke
2006   6.10           4.26   5.04   0.00      2006   190.20   3.96   4.59   3.50      2006    cain     cain     cain     cain
2007   122.00   3.69   3.74   2.50      2007   200.00   3.78   4.47   4.00      2007    cain     greinke     greinke     cain
2008   202.10   3.47   3.56   4.90      2008   217.20   3.91   4.46   3.70      2008    cain     greinke     greinke     greinke
2009   229.10   2.16   2.33   9.30      2009   217.20   3.89   4.16   3.30      2009    greinke     greinke     greinke     greinke
2010   220.00   4.17   3.34   5.10      2010   223.10   3.65   4.00   3.70      2010    cain     cain     greinke     greinke
2011   171.20   3.83   2.98   3.90      2011   221.20   2.91   3.78   5.20      2011    cain     cain     greinke     cain
2012   116.00   3.57   2.56   3.50      2012   120.10   3.13   3.56   2.70      2012    cain     cain     greinke     greinke
                                         Wins for Cain   6   5   1   3
                                     Wins for Greinke   2   3   7   5

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Greinke loves playing in MKE and Miller Park and said he doesnt like the idea of playing in a big market, because he has the anxiety disorder. 100 mil 5 years is plenty and at a certain point the idea of staying in a market he loves playing in out-weighs the idea of making more money but being less happy. My guess is he will heavily decide on this deal and a likely 6-7 130-140 mil deal but ultimately choose the smaller one the Brewers are offering, at least that's my thinking.

[MUBurrow]

per Morosi, Brewers have scratched Greinke from his Wed start. No reason given yet, but this can't be good.

[QuetteHoops]

Drew Olsen made a good point on the radio...By pushing Greinke back they then get Gallardo-Greinke going 1-2 in the cinci series maybe trying to make a little run before they decide what happens with him at the deadline.

[MUBurrow]

Melvin said there's nothing wrong with him, just to "recharge his batteries"

Re: the Red's matchup - yeah that might be the thought. looking at the standings, I don't think I agree with the logic/would do it myself, but maybe thats whats going on. If so, I think its dumb for a couple reasons. Primarily, when the top 3 teams are all less than 5 games back in the middle of July, those teams are all pretty fungible. A win against Cin isnt really that much bigger than a win against StL at this point, especially with the talent StL has, its not like theres any real certainty that its going to be Mke v Cin for the division at the end of the year. If you're gauging whether or not you're going to get some top prospects back in trades and sell or whether you're going to make a run based on a two game swing in July, your priorities are severely severely misguided.

Plus, this is going to make teams wonder what's wrong with Greinke, no matter what the real reason might be. With Marcum essentially untradable this season as it is, you can't afford to potentially undermine your only blue chip trade prospect's value like that. To march Greinke out there in back-to-backs after he got tossed, then rest him a week later to recharge his batteries is incredibly short sighted and irresponsible.

[Bocephys]

Drew Olsen made a good point on the radio...By pushing Greinke back they then get Gallardo-Greinke going 1-2 in the cinci series maybe trying to make a little run before they decide what happens with him at the deadline.

It's adorable that they still think they have a chance.

[🏀]

It's adorable that they still think they have a chance.

Don't look now, but the Cubs are 12-4 in their last 16 games.

[jmayer1]

It's adorable that they still think they have a chance.

Yep, the Cardinals and Rays showed last year that you always have to bow down and give up early. A 7/8 game lead is far too much to overcome with only 74 games left.

[MUBurrow]

Yep, the Cardinals and Rays showed last year that you always have to bow down and give up early. A 7/8 game lead is far too much to overcome with only 74 games left.

When the risk-reward is cutting significant time off of bottoming out your club so you can rebuild through your farm system, you don't make decisions based on a couple of teams with historical late season surges that clinched the wild card in game 162.

Plus, those teams had much better players on them than the Brewers do. Here are the box scores to the games each of those teams played on July 16 of last year:
Cards - http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310716117
Rays - http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310716130

The Cards lineup was drastically better than the Brewers of today, and the Rays had solid, deep pitching fronted by Shields, Hellickson, Price, and the promise of Matt Moore.

My biggest complaint with this whole thing though, is that if the Brewers actually think this is a team that has a great chance of winning, then go for it - but stop this "oh, maybe if we win 4 of 6 in these series we're contenders, but then maybe if we lose 2 of 3 we should sell." What the hell kind of thinking is that? You don't judge your team, and the franchise altering consequences of draft pick compensation vs deadline deals by what happens over ANY 9 game period. The front office has to be confident in its knowledge of its own team one way or the other and use that to crystal ball the second half, not what happens in a week and a half out of the gate.

[Benny B]

My biggest complaint with this whole thing though, is that if the Brewers actually think this is a team that has a great chance of winning, then go for it - but stop this "oh, maybe if we win 4 of 6 in these series we're contenders, but then maybe if we lose 2 of 3 we should sell." What the hell kind of thinking is that? You don't judge your team, and the franchise altering consequences of draft pick compensation vs deadline deals by what happens over ANY 9 game period. The front office has to be confident in its knowledge of its own team one way or the other and use that to crystal ball the second half, not what happens in a week and a half out of the gate.

Your logic implies a static "level of performance/talent."

Think of the MU/WVU game last year, where three of MU's key players sat out the first half, and let's assume that having Cadougan, DJO & Blue in the lineup for just the second half is enough to outscore WVU by 12 points in that half -- which is great because they were only down 11 at half time.   But if MU fell into a 15- or 20-point hole by halftime, do you think MU would still have won the game?  Probably not.  So what a shorthanded MU team did in the first 20 minutes to "hold serve" dictated whether or not their "A-team" had a chance to win the game in the next 20 minutes.

Or think of a 4x100 relay race... even if you've got the three fastest people in the world running your 1st, 3rd and anchor, you can't hand the second leg to anyone... he/she has to at least be "good enough" to keep your 3rd and anchor within striking distance.

Right now, the Brewers are trying to stay within striking distance - just like MU did in the 1st half vs. WVU - knowing that in about two weeks the Brewers are a different (i.e. better) team when Marcum and Lucroy return from the DL.  If the Brewers are 6 games out on July 31, it's not out of the question that a "healthy" Brewers team can overcome that deficit.  But if they're 13 games out on July 31, then it's virtually impossible - even for a healthy team - to overcome that kind of deficit in less than 60 games.

[Bocephys]

When the risk-reward is cutting significant time off of bottoming out your club so you can rebuild through your farm system, you don't make decisions based on a couple of teams with historical late season surges that clinched the wild card in game 162.

Plus, those teams had much better players on them than the Brewers do. Here are the box scores to the games each of those teams played on July 16 of last year:
Cards - http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310716117
Rays - http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310716130

The Cards lineup was drastically better than the Brewers of today, and the Rays had solid, deep pitching fronted by Shields, Hellickson, Price, and the promise of Matt Moore.

My biggest complaint with this whole thing though, is that if the Brewers actually think this is a team that has a great chance of winning, then go for it - but stop this "oh, maybe if we win 4 of 6 in these series we're contenders, but then maybe if we lose 2 of 3 we should sell." What the hell kind of thinking is that? You don't judge your team, and the franchise altering consequences of draft pick compensation vs deadline deals by what happens over ANY 9 game period. The front office has to be confident in its knowledge of its own team one way or the other and use that to crystal ball the second half, not what happens in a week and a half out of the gate.

Beat me to it Burrow, well said.

[MUBurrow]

I think those are great points, most of which I've never thought of. It also reveals that my main problem with the strategy is that I just don't think the team overcomes any deficit even with the return of Marcum and Lucroy.

In July, Brewers catchers have hit well over .300 and hit about .265-.270 in June, to go with 5 HRs. Before Lucroy got hurt, he was admittedly on fire at .345 with the same 5 HRs that Maldonado has hit in fewer ABs. I'm not arguing that these stats aside, Lucroy isn't better than the Maldonado-Kottaras combo. But I don't think that upon return Lucroy hits much better than what his replacements have so far, so I don't see a much "better team" there.

Its possible that Lucroy calls a better game than the other two, and I don't know how to look up whether or not that's true. But I have a strong suspicion that any defensive difference between Lucroy and the others behind the plate is negligible.

Marcum is kind of a wild card, and would probably be a boost - his replacements have been a bit of a mixed bag. Fiers has been great thus far but will cool down, Estrada has been up and down but can't go deep into games, and the early returns on Thornburg don't really hint that he'll be a major contributor to a competing team this season unless its possibly out of the bullpen. But the long delays in Marcum's rehab don't have me hopeful that even upon his return he'll be back for good. Even if he is, he won't be back until at least August, which is an absolute max of about 8-9 starts. Its not like you're getting a shutdown SP for those 9 starts either, in fact if he goes something like 9 GS, 5-2 with a 3.30 ERA, its a great outcome. I don't think the difference between that and replacement gives the brewers more than a couple extra wins, and that's giving the benefit of the doubt at every step along the way.

[Benny B]

I don't disagree that it's not a given that the Brewers can overcome any deficit with Marcum and Lucroy, but if the Brewers take the series vs StL and sweep Cincy this weekend, they could very well be 4 games out one week from today. Conversely, they could also be 12 out if they falter.  If I'm DM and I'm 4 games out on July 23, I'm buying... If I'm 10 out I'm selling.  If I'm 6-8 out, then the next 8 games will decide what I do and we start the conversation all over again. 

[NavinRJohnson]

I don't disagree that it's not a given that the Brewers can overcome any deficit with Marcum and Lucroy, but if the Brewers take the series vs StL and sweep Cincy this weekend, they could very well be 4 games out one week from today. Conversely, they could also be 12 out if they falter.  If I'm DM and I'm 4 games out on July 23, I'm buying... If I'm 10 out I'm selling.  If I'm 6-8 out, then the next 8 games will decide what I do and we start the conversation all over again. 

This is right. The Brewers are also team that will always have the added complication to any deal(s) or non-deal(s) of needing to get fans through the turnstiles. They really cannot afford to write of seasons or portions of seasons if they can help it, as some larger market teams can. Obviously, if they are 15 out at the deadline, your sucking wind and you have no choice but to salvage what you can via trade, but if they are middle of the road, MA and DM are for the most part try to compete.

Melvin is not stupid enough to make a decision based on some surprise 9 game hot streak. He knows what he has, just as he knows what the remaining schedule is, etc. They have a decent lineup, including a guy that could be the MVP again, formidable rotation (if healthy), and a bullpen that last year was a strength, and cannot possibly perform worse than it has thus far (I hope not anyway). If a team matching that description is sitting 4-5 back at the deadline, however you got there' will at worst stand pat, and at best try to add a piece or two. Or, maybe even a little of both, like trading a K-rod for a player that could potentially help in another area right away, as an example.

Every win counts the same no matter when they happen. Particularly with the expanded playoffs, if you think you have a chance to play meaningful games in September, if you're the Milwaukee Brewers, you have little choice but to go for it (Ina responsible way of course).

[GGGG]

This is right. The Brewers are also team that will always have the added complication to any deal(s) or non-deal(s) of needing to get fans through the turnstiles. They really cannot afford to write of seasons or portions of seasons if they can help it, as some larger market teams can.

Well, what you are talking about is the marginal difference between what they would sell if they held course versus what they would sell if they sold off.  I would argue that is a pretty small amount.  If the Brewers continue on their current course, the typical fan is about as likely to walk up and purchase a ticket as they would if they sold off.

Furthermore, if a deal makes them more competitive down the line, they will recoup any lost sales.

[The Process]

Anyone catch this "slide" by Fat Boy yesterday?

I feel for the second baseman there: