[Cracked Sidewalks] Trying to explain Jae Crowder’s greatness

[MerrittsMustache]

MerrittsMustache is right and Bill James is wrong!

Finally something we can all agree on!

Seriously though, do you honestly think Biggio was the second-best player of the decade? Or even in the top 10?

[Henry Sugar]

Finally something we can all agree on!

Seriously though, do you honestly think Biggio was the second-best player of the decade? Or even in the top 10?

I don't know and don't really care.  Haven't looked at the statement nor the logic that went into it.  I don't even like Biggio and his stupid oversized helmet and sleeve of battle armor.

What I do know, however, is that if Bill James said it, then there was some serious thought and research that went into the statement.  And then it was questioned and vetted by far smarter people than the likes of you and I. 

After a few decades, I believe James has earned the benefit of a doubt.  At least more than just a casual dismissal of his results and a predetermined conclusion of "statistical analysis can be very, very flawed".

[HouWarrior]

It's also a lot easier to use advanced metrics in a sport like Baseball than it is in Basketball.  Baseball is largely a combination of individual performances, while there is way more to a basketball game in terms of the cohesive flow of two 5 man units performing in tandem.  In my opinion basketball players need to pass an experienced eye test before metrics matter.  There's a certain intangible element to basketball that simply cannot be captured in metrics.  

Great point. Eye tests in BB are big. I can still remember watching and being blown away on the first sights at the quick feet of Olajuwon, and incredible first step quickness of Wade, both of whom were just in college then...but to me it seemed both would be special in the NBA for the skills, not the stats. Stats never showed it, but Kareem said Nate Thurmond played him the toughest.
Watching Nate play Kareem....Nate never took a posession off, he'd always lock tight to the best positions, and his wingspan/angle challenged all Kareem's shots..(.and you'd have to see the skyhook to appreciate its the one totally unbeatable shot in basketball history, no stat captures it...it just was)..

Even in baseball, ...When you first saw the quick batter wrists of Hank Aaron/Barry Bonds, the fielding style of Ozzie Smith, or Johny Bench's one hand fielding, and almost crouch rocket throw to second...were you thinking I need numbers to show he's great...or were you thinking wow Im seeing someone do something at a level Ive never witnessed  before. Thats amaaaazing..

With due respect, the proof may be often in the stats, but the fans best orgasm is in seeing it, especially in person.

[Skatastrophy]

one could chalk that up at least partially to the higher level of competition game in, game out - but absolute crap seems perhaps slightly harsh.

Stop arguing against my hyperbole with your logic!

[Lennys Tap]

I don't know and don't really care.  Haven't looked at the statement nor the logic that went into it.  I don't even like Biggio and his stupid oversized helmet and sleeve of battle armor.

What I do know, however, is that if Bill James said it, then there was some serious thought and research that went into the statement.  And then it was questioned and vetted by far smarter people than the likes of you and I. 

After a few decades, I believe James has earned the benefit of a doubt.  At least more than just a casual dismissal of his results and a predetermined conclusion of "statistical analysis can be very, very flawed".

James is a hall of famer who changed the way fans and baseball execs alike look at the game. I think he underrates (or is unable to quantify) the distraction factor of a guy who steals and the value of the sacrifice in playoff type situations, but that's nitpicking on my part.

[MerrittsMustache]

I don't know and don't really care.  Haven't looked at the statement nor the logic that went into it.  I don't even like Biggio and his stupid oversized helmet and sleeve of battle armor.

What I do know, however, is that if Bill James said it, then there was some serious thought and research that went into the statement.  And then it was questioned and vetted by far smarter people than the likes of you and I. 

After a few decades, I believe James has earned the benefit of a doubt.  At least more than just a casual dismissal of his results and a predetermined conclusion of "statistical analysis can be very, very flawed".

I don't care who you are or how well-respected you are, if your metrics show that Craig Biggio was a better player than Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, etc then there's a flaw in the analysis. That said, I do think that metrics and statistical analysis can be very useful in sports but they have their limits and their flaws.

[HouWarrior]

Yup. Baseball, in particular is a stats guy dream. The roids era ruined even that, though, because 10-15 per year homer guys were suddenly popping 40, such that the entire era's numbers could be asterisked.
I really feel bad for a guy like K Griffey Jr, who I believe played clean during a numbers flawed period.
Its important bama know we appreciate the stats work-- its still worth an awful lot, and takes a lot of effort to produce this stuff. It seems only  in the ultimate conclusions drawn, that some of us wish to differ, or qualify.

[g0lden3agle]

I'm not trying to discount the effort that went into the article at all.  For a guy like Crowder that does pass some level of the eye test it is good to also see that the stats back him up as well. 

Out of curiosity, statistically speaking, where did Wes rank in these categories compared to Jerel and Dominic?  He always seemed to play 2nd fiddle to these guys in terms of the hearts of the students at the time, except there was always something about his game, especially his senior year, that led me to believe he was more association ready.  Do the stats back that feeling up?

[Henry Sugar]

I don't care who you are or how well-respected you are, if your metrics show that Craig Biggio was a better player than Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, etc then there's a flaw in the analysis. That said, I do think that metrics and statistical analysis can be very useful in sports but they have their limits and their flaws.

My feelings are more objective than your analysis.

If your basic point is that stats have limits and flaws, you won't find any objection from me.  If your basic point is that you'll ignore any stats analysis you disagree with because stats can have limits and flaws, well...

[Blackhat]

Somebody get on a multiple regression analysis of increased steals and blocks to wins.   

[brewcity77]

Not to steal nywarrior's thunder, but it looks like Mike Miller from NBCSports.com has jumped on to the Crowder bandwagon too, citing bama's CS article! Way to go, and glad to see Crowder getting this kind of pub.

http://beyondthearc.nbcsports.com/2011/07/19/marquette-may-have-the-nations-best-all-around-player/

[HouWarrior]

Not to steal nywarrior's thunder, but it looks like Mike Miller from NBCSports.com has jumped on to the Crowder bandwagon too, citing bama's CS article! Way to go, and glad to see Crowder getting this kind of pub.

http://beyondthearc.nbcsports.com/2011/07/19/marquette-may-have-the-nations-best-all-around-player/

Way to go Bama, and Cracked Sidewalks...'bout time NBC recognized CS as a news of record source!!

[RawdogDX]

I don't care who you are or how well-respected you are, if your metrics show that Craig Biggio was a better player than Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, etc then there's a flaw in the analysis. That said, I do think that metrics and statistical analysis can be very useful in sports but they have their limits and their flaws.

I think your analysis is limited and flawed.  I don't understand who you are, that you think you can say with 100% confidence, that Mike Piazza contributed more than Biggio.  Biggio was a 4 time GG and a 5 time SS with over 3000 hits.  Not counted in that are his HBP, which he is the king of.  How can you be so sure of your "gut feeling" to think you know better than the people who changed the way scouting was done for every mlb team?  People have been making mistakes with the eye test for years.  
I don't even disagree about Griffy, but I'm not going to tell some stat nerd that they are wrong and that I know this based on 60 or so games I saw them play in. Games I watched while drinking and not keeping score.

[Bocephys]

Not to steal nywarrior's thunder, but it looks like Mike Miller from NBCSports.com has jumped on to the Crowder bandwagon too, citing bama's CS article! Way to go, and glad to see Crowder getting this kind of pub.

http://beyondthearc.nbcsports.com/2011/07/19/marquette-may-have-the-nations-best-all-around-player/

Also nice to see that Crowder has apparently grown two inches this offseason!  That should help him out defending down low...

[brewcity77]

I think your analysis is limited and flawed.  I don't understand who you are, that you think you can say with 100% confidence, that Mike Piazza contributed more than Biggio.  Biggio was a 4 time GG and a 5 time SS with over 3000 hits.  Not counted in that are his HBP, which he is the king of.  How can you be so sure of your "gut feeling" to think you know better than the people who changed the way scouting was done for every mlb team?  People have been making mistakes with the eye test for years.  
I don't even disagree about Griffy, but I'm not going to tell some stat nerd that they are wrong and that I know this based on 60 or so games I saw them play in. Games I watched while drinking and not keeping score.

Also, it's incredibly limited when Merrits clearly didn't read what the article said. "In the late 1990s, when Barry Bonds was clearly the greatest statistical player in the game, Bill James shocked everyone by saying that Craig Biggio was the 2nd best player in the NL." Frank Thomas played in the AL. Griffey didn't come to the NL until 2000. So only Piazza is actually in the discussion, and as good as Piazza was I don't think he was such a dominant force that you couldn't analyze Biggio from a sabermetric standpoint and find that he was the more valuable player.

[HouWarrior]

Also, it's incredibly limited when Merrits clearly didn't read what the article said. "In the late 1990s, when Barry Bonds was clearly the greatest statistical player in the game, Bill James shocked everyone by saying that Craig Biggio was the 2nd best player in the NL." Frank Thomas played in the AL. Griffey didn't come to the NL until 2000. So only Piazza is actually in the discussion, and as good as Piazza was I don't think he was such a dominant force that you couldn't analyze Biggio from a sabermetric standpoint and find that he was the more valuable player.

Good, careful reading.
In any Bidge vs Piazza... I'd take the multiple stats of Bidge any day over Piazza. Bidge...Led NL in doubles, HBP, better steals, best leadoff HR rate, leader in runs scored, in majors, a big time multi threat, huge setup guy for Bagwell..vs Piazza..good catcher with great (better) power batting stats, and better OPS.
   

[MerrittsMustache]

Also, it's incredibly limited when Merrits clearly didn't read what the article said. "In the late 1990s, when Barry Bonds was clearly the greatest statistical player in the game, Bill James shocked everyone by saying that Craig Biggio was the 2nd best player in the NL." Frank Thomas played in the AL. Griffey didn't come to the NL until 2000. So only Piazza is actually in the discussion, and as good as Piazza was I don't think he was such a dominant force that you couldn't analyze Biggio from a sabermetric standpoint and find that he was the more valuable player.

Good catch, brewcity, and thanks for being civil in pointing out my oversight. I was simply throwing out Griffey, Thomas and Piazza because they were the first names that came to mind but clearly I should have read more carefully before doing so.

That said, I stand by my stance that Biggio was not the 2nd best player in the NL during the 90s. I'd argue that Barry Larkin, Jeff Bagwell, Tony Gwynn, Sammy Sosa and Larry Walker were NL better players than Biggio during that time period. I may even be overlooking some guys.

In any Bidge vs Piazza... I'd take the multiple stats of Bidge any day over Piazza. Bidge...Led NL in doubles, HBP, better steals, best leadoff HR rate, leader in runs scored, in majors, a big time multi threat, huge setup guy for Bagwell..vs Piazza..good catcher with great (better) power batting stats, and better OPS.

Good points, houwarrior. It's actually somewhat an apples to oranges comparison because a lead-off hitter is obviously asked to do different things than a #3 or #4 hitter. Some teams are missing a pesky lead-off man, others need a bopper in the middle of the order. Both types of players are incredibly valuable but it's a matter of what the specific team needs that makes one more valuable than the other. The 2011 Cubs for example, have a solid 1-2 at the top of the order (when it's Castro and Barney) but they could use a big stick in the middle of the order (among many other things, mind you). If that team could add a 1990s Biggio-type or a 1990s Piazza-type, they'd take the Piazza-type in a heartbeat. The Brewers, on the other hand, would likely find a player like Biggio much more valuable.

[brewcity77]

Good points, houwarrior. It's actually somewhat an apples to oranges comparison because a lead-off hitter is obviously asked to do different things than a #3 or #4 hitter. Some teams are missing a pesky lead-off man, others need a bopper in the middle of the order. Both types of players are incredibly valuable but it's a matter of what the specific team needs that makes one more valuable than the other. The 2011 Cubs for example, have a solid 1-2 at the top of the order (when it's Castro and Barney) but they could use a big stick in the middle of the order (among many other things, mind you). If that team could add a 1990s Biggio-type or a 1990s Piazza-type, they'd take the Piazza-type in a heartbeat. The Brewers, on the other hand, would likely find a player like Biggio much more valuable.

I too like the Cubs' 1-2. But when you mention many other things, sadly, it's the 3-8 and a better pitching staff. Not a good time to be a Cubs fan, though I'm not sure any of my life has been a "good time" to be a Cubs fan.

But speaking to Crowder...I think it shows that while he may not be a guy who always has a great statline, he will do a lot to help a team win, like Biggio. When you look back in baseball, especially in the 1990s and early 2000s when Sabermetrics was in its infancy, teams like Oakland were able to compete despite being filled with more Biggio-types than Griffey or Piazza types. And while Oakland's success has waned in recent years, other teams have caught on since Moneyball was written, negating much of their advantage. Guys like Biggio were winning just as many games or more than many of the more obvious stars, and I think Crowder can do (and has done) the same kind of things for Marquette.

...especially if he's grown 2 inches

[MerrittsMustache]

I too like the Cubs' 1-2. But when you mention many other things, sadly, it's the 3-8 and a better pitching staff. Not a good time to be a Cubs fan, though I'm not sure any of my life has been a "good time" to be a Cubs fan.

...and then when you think it's a "good time" to be a Cubs fan (2003, 2007, 2008) they remind you once again that they're the Cubs.

[🏀]

1990's? Chipper should probably be in the discussion due to his efforts in the latter part of the decade.

[MerrittsMustache]

1990's? Chipper should probably be in the discussion due to his efforts in the latter part of the decade.

True, but considering he was only called up 1995, I thought that was a tougher argument. He did have some monster years though.

[bamamarquettefan]

I can't believe my post on Crowder's greatness, despite winning support from NBC Sports, has been hijacked by a Piazza vs. Biggio discussion :-)  Congrats Jae, but a couple of notes:

1. Kemba was No. 2 in all of basketball based on my formulas:

You want "great"? Put down the numbers and watch Kemba Walker play. That is greatness personified.

As posted earlier, I did run the numbers of every player in the country and Kemba calculated through pure math as the 2nd best player in the country, so that eye test was actually consistent with the stat test.

2. Biggio over Piazza cited as proof of fault of statistics:

OK, I'm suckered in.  If the best example of Bill James claim being ludicrous is how much better Piazza wsa that Biggio, I think James holds up ok.

I see baseball-reference.com ranks Piazza as the 49th best player ever and Biggio as the 63rd best ever, so not a huge gap.

On fielding, both Biggio and Piazza threw out 26% of opposing baserunners in the 1990s, and honestly I believe anyone conducting the eyeball test would conclude they were both pretty bad catchers.  I guess the difference is, Piazza really needed to be a DH, while Biggio is one of only 10 players in history to win four gold gloves at 2nd base, so Biggio has an enormous edge on defense.

On offense, Piazza had the edge in the triple crown stats and slugging, while Biggio was better in every other category.  Here is the average season for each in the 1990s, going through the stats where Biggio had the edge vs. the stats where Piazza had the edge:

Biggio edge
Fielding - 4 gold gloves at 2nd vs. pretty bad catcher
Runs – Biggio 104 to 76
Hits – 172 to 150
Doubles – 36 to 22
Triples 4 to 1
Stolen Bases 32 of 42 attempts, to 2 of 4 attempts
On base .386 to .372
GIDP 6 to 14
HBP 15 to 2

Piazza edge
BA .315 to .297
HR 30 to 14
RBI 96 to 64
Slugging .537 to .441

[Pakuni]

Just wondering, should the Gold Glove - a ridiculously subjective award given often contrary to the kind of fielding stats Bill James has invented and/or made famous(see: Jeter, Derek) - really be used in an analysis of Biggio's worth?

[HouWarrior]

In fielding skills Bidge has the clear edge over Piazza.

In Htown, we remember something very unique about Bidge....Out of BE Seton Hall, Biggio came up to the Astros first, as a catcher, and in 1991 he was an NL allstar as a a catcher.
In 1992, The Stros shifted him to second to prolong his career. and save the wear on his legs from playing in the crouch.
Biggio worked with Matt Galante, for hours on end,  learned the position, while in the majors, from scratch, and was a 6 time all star at second.

Late in his career, in 2004, the Mets tried Piazza at first base, for the same reasons, but the Mets gave up on it, as he couldnt glove the position. He played a few games in the outfield too---if you want to add to your blooper reel--look up some replays.