COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[GooooMarquette]

The decisions being made right now carry a lot of weight. And every decision has a tradeoff. Keeping that in mind, we all need to be more thoughtful when reacting to decisions that are being made.

On this, we are in agreement. I have said from early on that our best course of action as individual citizens is to  follow CDC's guidance, whether we agree with it or not. I would add that we should follow guidance of state and local officials and health departments, since they are most in touch with local conditions.

[mu03eng]

Whatever state you want to call it we are in some sort of lockdown nationally and it is impacting at least 50% of our economy directly and at least another 20% indirectly. If everything stays the same how long can we sustain this stance without irreparably harming our economy and/or the futures of millions of Americans? How do you balance the dozens of child that will be harmed by the current state of affairs with the handful of lives that will be lost as a result of going back to the status quo?

If I'm being really, really honest? I maintain the current status quo until the end of next week while simultaneously initiating a plan to rapidly expand hospital capacity. I then start slowly opening things back up until by the end of April almost all restrictions are off and maybe wait until mid-May for mass gatherings. We want the disease to spread but slowly aka flattening the curve but the peak of the curve can be changed by increasing capacity as well. Buy time for capacity then go nuts essentially.

Italy scared the bejesus out of everyone, understandably but they seem to be a worst case scenario as the result a bunch of factors:
-high average age
-higher than average comorbides
-a capacity gap
-a high population density
-a high tourism element

Not thar similar things can't happen else where but I think the thing people lose sight of is that the majority of the fatalities are due to a lack of intervention. The disease is survivable even in the highest risk population if we have available intervention. So really there are two curves we should be talking about, the incident curve and the capacity curve, as long as the capacity curve increases at a rate the same or better than the incident curve we are doing what we can.

What I'm having trouble rationalizing is how much national effort we put into avoiding Coronavirus deaths that we don't put into avoiding deaths of flu, or cancer, or car accidents, or overdoses, or suicides. I'm not trying to sound like I don't care, because I do, but at some point we have to have a frank conversation about how much "effort" is too much effort.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The lockdown won't go on for two months.  My guess is that by the end of next week, people are going to gradually do what they normally do.  And in four weeks or so, even the 50+ gathering will be largely ignored.

This is all about "flattening the curve" for the next ten days.  Preventing the spike that Italy and others saw.

A lot of people are going to die from this.  But even then those stories will be on the back burner as life ramps up again.

This exactly, the third option is about containment of hot spots to flatten the curve.  Lessen the burden on health care at one time by extending/delaying the impact to later. Unlike flu where there are known vaccines and treatments like Tamiflu to contain, this is new and was unknown really just a few weeks ago (the major reasons flu is less fatal is).  Hoping warmer weather can kill or stomp down indoor social interaction. Hoping vaccines prove successful in trial and treatments work as this evolves. And let's be honest, let's hope this has been out there for a while as that means that there are more people who are immune and not passing this on (or who can catch it).

This effort is about the Fall and trying to make sure this thing has run its course, treatments evolve to prevent this from roaring back. But, right now, containment of this is the strategy (no need to lockdown everywhere). And prior to Easter/Passover is the government's goal to slow this down significantly when young and old will gather together...as people will do no matter.

[jesmu84]

Anyone entering the Seattle VA is automatically tested.

Hmm...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/10/coronavirus-spread-veterans-va-screening-visitor-restrictions/5006410002/

https://www.stripes.com/news/veterans/va-up-to-at-least-11-patients-who-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-1.622070#correction

Something isn't adding up here....

[MUfan12]

Granted, I'm not putting a ton of stock in what politicians are saying, but Cuomo just said that they expect this to peak in NY in 45 days.

Yiiikes.

[forgetful]

Granted, I'm not putting a ton of stock in what politicians are saying, but Cuomo just said that they expect this to peak in NY in 45 days.

Yiiikes.

That would suggest though that they "flatten the curve," I'm really starting to hate that phrase. How about broaden the distribution. If that wasn't the case we may see a peak in 15-20 days, but it would be ugly. It actually may be better if the peak is say 60+ days away, that would imply a gradual slope to the peak.

[mu03eng]

Granted, I'm not putting a ton of stock in what politicians are saying, but Cuomo just said that they expect this to peak in NY in 45 days.

Yiiikes.

What is this possibly based on? That seems like true fearmongering

[keefe]

Tested or screened?

Because testing everyone who entered that hospital would be extremely irresponsible and not in accordance with guidelines.

Fair point.

The Seattle VA has restricted access to the ER entry portal. They conduct a 100% screen of everyone, staff, patients, visitors, with testing for those exhibiting or stating symptoms of fever and respiratory issues.

[warriorchick]

Does anyone know how having business interruption insurance plays into this?

Are you covered if you close down voluntarily? Or if you aren't closed down, but government mandates bring your sales to a standstill?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Anecdotally, it seems like younger and older people aren't taking this as seriously as gen x-ers and late millenials.

I also think that people are willing to shut down for a max of two weeks before they say f it, im getting with my life, consequences be damned.

Agreed and agreed.

[mu03eng]

One other thing I'm having trouble wrapping my brain around. What mechanism would have kept the virus out of the US until recently that we are behind Italy? And if Seattle has true full community spread, why didn't we see more deaths there and those deaths be more spread out. Not trying to be a truther here but trying to make sense of this.

[Archies Bat]

One other thing I'm having trouble wrapping my brain around. What mechanism would have kept the virus out of the US until recently that we are behind Italy? And if Seattle has true full community spread, why didn't we see more deaths there and those deaths be more spread out. Not trying to be a truther here but trying to make sense of this.

I'm not sure where I heard this, but due to fairly strict laws in Italy about buying things made in Italy, Chinese companies have bought numerous facilities in Italy and staff them predominately with Chinese workers.  The supposition was that the back and forth movement of these Chinese workers allowed spread to Italy faster.

Or that could some false story that spread around.  Take it for what it is worth.

[forgetful]

One other thing I'm having trouble wrapping my brain around. What mechanism would have kept the virus out of the US until recently that we are behind Italy? And if Seattle has true full community spread, why didn't we see more deaths there and those deaths be more spread out. Not trying to be a truther here but trying to make sense of this.

1. Luck of where the initial seeding events occur. If the initial traveler is a resident, who goes home and has limited external travel, not as much initial spread. May buy you a week or two. If the traveler is a tourist, going to a bunch of sites with 100's or 1000's of people. Then you lost yourself some weeks. If our first infections were at say Disney World, we'd be a whole lot worse off right now.

2. Population age near initial seeding events.

3. The number of seeding events. Northern Italy, as a big tourist destination site, probably had multiple seeding events. That is what we had a week or two later due to internal travel.

I also still have trouble wrapping my head around the numbers. Too many unknowns. What are the true numbers of cases in these countries. The cruise ship, and Korea, suggest an actual death rate of 1%. So that means Italy like has over 200-400k cases right now, and the US has 10-15k cases.

We don't really know though because there are too many variables that can affect the fatality rate.

[pbiflyer]

The article mentions scientists and govt officials frustration with younger people feeling immune and ignoring practices that will help to flatten the curve.  Middle age and older generations may be skeptical, but more prone to doing what is asked.

Florida closes all bars and nightclubs for the next 30 days. Basically because younger people were ignoring the social distancing advice.

[Pakuni]

What I'm having trouble rationalizing is how much national effort we put into avoiding Coronavirus deaths that we don't put into avoiding deaths of flu, or cancer, or car accidents, or overdoses, or suicides. I'm not trying to sound like I don't care, because I do, but at some point we have to have a frank conversation about how much "effort" is too much effort.

So, when you struggle with these rationalizations, do you weigh the costs of not making an "effort" to stop/slow COVID-19? .

[BM1090]

Had to run into the office today to pick up a new computer. On a normal day, we have about 1,000 employees onsite. Today, I think there are about 10 of us here plus cleaning/service staff.

We are not required to work from home but have been encouraged to do so and it seems like people are responding the way you'd hope.

[JWags85]

Florida closes all bars and nightclubs for the next 30 days. Basically because younger people were ignoring the social distancing advice.

But restaurants and beaches still wide open.  No idea what they are doing

[pbiflyer]

Does anyone know how having business interruption insurance plays into this?

Are you covered if you close down voluntarily? Or if you aren't closed down, but government mandates bring your sales to a standstill?

This was on another board by a small business owner. A single point, but others seem to think it was accurate.

Unfortunately the answer we’re able to give everyone at this point isn’t a good one. Basically every property insurance policy written in the entire country has an exclusion for Virus/Communicable disease. Business Interruption coverage, which is a form of property insurance, is something that’s on your policies, but the attached exclusion also excludes coverage for business interruption from a virus. I’m not aware of an insurance carrier that has ever offered to provide a separate policy for something like this, and frankly I have no idea how they would even price/underwrite coverage for something like this in such an unpredictable and incredibly rare circumstance. This virus exclusion endorsement, or something similar is on basically every property insurance policy written in the US, which has us establishing a very low expectation with our clients from a coverage perspective. We’re all really in the same boat together right now.


That said, as the broker, we also are not the claims department for the insurance company deciding whether or not a claim gets paid/approved or declined. Property insurance (which in insurance origins was designed simply as ‘fire’ insurance) was created for physical losses (fire, wind, collapse, lighting strikes, cars/planes driving into buildings, theft, etc.). In this case, everyone’s building/property is still standing and physically capable of operating. This is all a very unprecedented circumstance, and the situation seems to be pretty fluid with government and financial institutions still determining the best course of action. It’s possible as the situation evolves we may recommend submitting a claim to the insurance company for a more formal up or down from them.

[pbiflyer]

But restaurants and beaches still wide open.  No idea what they are doing

Ft Lauderdale and Miami Beaches are closed. Which really just drew the crowds to the nearby restaurants......

Restaurants are to be limited to 50% capacity as well.
Interesting question about what exactly defines a bar. Most bars serve food here. But they are very much bars. No one goes to the Square Grouper for food, though they may order wings or a fish sandwich. Can they stay open?

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

1. Luck of where the initial seeding events occur. If the initial traveler is a resident, who goes home and has limited external travel, not as much initial spread. May buy you a week or two. If the traveler is a tourist, going to a bunch of sites with 100's or 1000's of people. Then you lost yourself some weeks. If our first infections were at say Disney World, we'd be a whole lot worse off right now.

2. Population age near initial seeding events.

3. The number of seeding events. Northern Italy, as a big tourist destination site, probably had multiple seeding events. That is what we had a week or two later due to internal travel.

I also still have trouble wrapping my head around the numbers. Too many unknowns. What are the true numbers of cases in these countries. The cruise ship, and Korea, suggest an actual death rate of 1%. So that means Italy like has over 200-400k cases right now, and the US has 10-15k cases.

We don't really know though because there are too many variables that can affect the fatality rate.

I think this is how the New Rochelle, NY one happened.  Some guy was super-carrier.

[Jockey]

I think you're misunderstanding why people have concerns over the economic impacts of a mass lockdown. Think about all the people living paycheck to paycheck right now who would likely end up missing work. What happens to them if the lockdown goes on for 2 months? What is the ripple effect going forward for the businesses they work for? How will their children eat?

Apparently the richest country in the history of the world is out of options. Nothing can be done.

Although tax breaks for billionaires will be part of the solution somehow.

[Hards Alumni]

Florida closes all bars and nightclubs for the next 30 days. Basically because younger people were ignoring the social distancing advice.

Florida is the next Italy.  Mark my words.

[Hards Alumni]

Ft Lauderdale and Miami Beaches are closed. Which really just drew the crowds to the nearby restaurants......

Restaurants are to be limited to 50% capacity as well.
Interesting question about what exactly defines a bar. Most bars serve food here. But they are very much bars. No one goes to the Square Grouper for food, though they may order wings or a fish sandwich. Can they stay open?

I'm guessing a liquor license is what defines a bar.

This was Clearwater beach, yesterday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZamrmTMs6w

In case you have much faith in people to make good decisions.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I'm guessing a liquor license is what defines a bar.

This was Clearwater beach, yesterday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZamrmTMs6w

In case you have much faith in people to make good decisions.

This is why colleges and universities were so keen on getting their students out of their residence halls for a few weeks / the rest of the semester.

[mu03eng]

So, when you struggle with these rationalizations, do you weigh the costs of not making an "effort" to stop/slow COVID-19? .

Did I say no effort anywhere? Clearly some effort is required, the question is how much?