Record in last 8? Dreamer, Realist or Cynic?

[MUFC9295]

This is a year we might pay for those "oh, really?" higher seeds.  Maybe we muster just enough to "qualify", but miss the tourney because other teams are working the bubble just |this| much more.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

There is no magical rule that says the Big East must get 3 bids. They won't take the 3rd place team if they are not the 36th best at large team.

True, but there's no way the fourth best conference in the nation only gets two bids. I just don't think it's possible. Can you imagine the Big 12 or the SEC only getting 2 bids?

[Eldon]

There is no magical rule that says the Big East must get 3 bids. They won't take the 3rd place team if they are not the 36th best at large team.

Plus one.

Maybe we should let X beat us. That would look solid on their resume and will help them get to the tourney. We will get tourney credits by doing this, whereas beating them wont get us in. Thus, there is greater benefit for us in losing to X.

(Teal is hard on my phone)

[chapman]

There is no magical rule that says the Big East must get 3 bids. They won't take the 3rd place team if they are not the 36th best at large team.

Yep, and it's complete body of work, not just conference standings...there's no rule that says they would need to take a 3rd place Marquette team over a 4th place Georgetown that has three non-conference wins against top 44 RPI teams and zero sub-300 record inflaters vs. our one win and four/almost six sub-300 wins.  But there is a magic rule that says a win on March 15 puts us in and even avoids a play-in game.       

[Coleman]

Yep, and it's complete body of work, not just conference standings...there's no rule that says they would need to take a 3rd place Marquette team over a 4th place Georgetown that has three non-conference wins against top 44 RPI teams and zero sub-300 record inflaters vs. our one win and four/almost six sub-300 wins.  But there is a magic rule that says a win on March 15 puts us in and even avoids a play-in game.       

Excellent points. The scenario of a 4th place team getting a bid over a third place team is indeed possible

[mu03eng]

I tend to be an optimist and think maybe Buzz finally found a combo that works, so I'm going 6-2.  If I had to go game by game, I'd say the losses will come @Nova and @Providence...with a big home win vs Creighton.

I think MU has a better than average shot to go 6-2 at least, but I don't think it will have anything to do with the combo Buzz found.  I think, as fans, we are going to have to get over the idea that there is a magical line-up or combination that will result in solid basketball.  It took Buzz 30 minutes against Butler to find the right amalgamation of players and strategy to beat Butler.  It will be the same against Seton Hall, what strategy and player combo that wins, will likely be way different than what worked against Providence or Butler or etc.  This team is far too polarized in their skill sets to roll out a consistent line-up.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We also have to accept that we have a poor offensive team but a good team. Just because we as fans prefer high score totals and blowouts doesn't mean that that is the only way to win. We are a slow paced, defensive minded, grind it out team. We will blow the doors off nobody but we will beat some quality opponents.

If we can accept that as fans, we might be a little happier and more optimistic about our chances

[79Warrior]

4-4. everyone gets all giddy when we win one game, only to follow it up with another loss. this has been a very mediocre team all year and they have shown no signs of changing that. .500 the rest of the way and 9-9 overall in conf, can't see how they do any better than that.

I voted 3-5. Just don't see this team winning any more road games. As much as I would love to see us go on a run, we are what we are, a .500 team in the BE.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

If we went 6-2, and those 2 losses were to Creighton and Villanova, barring a BET championship, we would be out. Period. This isn't your father's Big East. 11-7 is not an automatic bid anymore. It's just not. We would have no signature wins, with a 19-12 record. How is that "no chance" of an NIT? It has NIT written all over it.

See I disagree. I feel like Marquette got some really favorable seeds the past few years. I was looking at one of the Northwestern blogs and what they considered to be bubble worthy is way less then what we think. Also, I trust the NU fans oppinion just because they were the definition of a bubble team when Shurna was there.

[BenCat12]

I think MU has a better than average shot to go 6-2 at least, but I don't think it will have anything to do with the combo Buzz found.  I think, as fans, we are going to have to get over the idea that there is a magical line-up or combination that will result in solid basketball.  It took Buzz 30 minutes against Butler to find the right amalgamation of players and strategy to beat Butler.  It will be the same against Seton Hall, what strategy and player combo that wins, will likely be way different than what worked against Providence or Butler or etc.  This team is far too polarized in their skill sets to roll out a consistent line-up.

Curious that you think 6-2 is a legitimate chance considering the rest of your post.  We will not win another game the rest of the season if it takes 30 minutes for Buzz to figure out which combination of players works best.  Butler was the easiest game we had left on the schedule and it took 30 minutes plus we were down 10+ before he figured it out.  That won't work against any other team left on the schedule.  Also think the success of the team, with Jake and Derrick on the floor in the Butler game will only give Buzz more false confidence that they can get it done against tougher competition.....

[mu03eng]

Curious that you think 6-2 is a legitimate chance considering the rest of your post.  We will not win another game the rest of the season if it takes 30 minutes for Buzz to figure out which combination of players works best.  Butler was the easiest game we had left on the schedule and it took 30 minutes plus we were down 10+ before he figured it out.  That won't work against any other team left on the schedule.  Also think the success of the team, with Jake and Derrick on the floor in the Butler game will only give Buzz more false confidence that they can get it done against tougher competition.....

I don't think it'll take the team 30 minutes every time to figure it out.  Look at the Providence game, Buzz had a strategy that worked right away (pressing and a lot of bodies) and it worked right away.  Buzz will have to adjust game to game and half to half (more so than normal) to win the games, just have to hope he's got it figured out at the start of the game.

The only two games that are likely losses are Nova and Creighton.  The rest of the games I'd better the line would be within +/-3 points meaning its a relative toss up.  I don't think 6-2 likely but there is certainly a chance.

[frozena pizza]

I think it's either 4 or 5 wins so I voted 4-4.  At this point I'm just hoping for a strong showing at the Garden.  For once.

[BenCat12]

I don't think it'll take the team 30 minutes every time to figure it out.  Look at the Providence game, Buzz had a strategy that worked right away (pressing and a lot of bodies) and it worked right away.  Buzz will have to adjust game to game and half to half (more so than normal) to win the games, just have to hope he's got it figured out at the start of the game.

The only two games that are likely losses are Nova and Creighton.  The rest of the games I'd better the line would be within +/-3 points meaning its a relative toss up.  I don't think 6-2 likely but there is certainly a chance.

Hope you're right.
I went 3-5.  I think they beat Xavier, @DePaul and Georgetown.  Lose to @Seton Hall, Creighton, @Nova, @Providence and St. Johns.  It just takes too long to figure out what the best combo of players is on a night-to-night basis.  Far too much inconsistency to have any type of winning streak IMO.

[MarsupialMadness]

See I disagree. I feel like Marquette got some really favorable seeds the past few years. I was looking at one of the Northwestern blogs and what they considered to be bubble worthy is way less then what we think. Also, I trust the NU fans oppinion just because they were the definition of a bubble team when Shurna was there.

You trust the opinions of getting in the NCAA tourney from a fanbase who's team has never made the NCAA tourney?

[The Equalizer]

The only two games that are likely losses are Nova and Creighton.  The rest of the games I'd better the line would be within +/-3 points meaning its a relative toss up.  I don't think 6-2 likely but there is certainly a chance.

I think you said it . . . 6 games are relative toss ups.  If you play six toss-ups, 3-3 is the most likely outcome.  Winning all six isn't likely but there is certaily a chance.  Then again, losing all six isn't likely, but there is the equal chance.    

Based on your assumption that we lose to Nova and Creighton, and considering the other six games to be tossups, that leads to a most likely record of 3-5 over the next eight.  

[hairy worthen]

I think you said it . . . 6 games are relative toss ups.  If you play six toss-ups, 3-3 is the most likely outcome.  Winning all six isn't likely but there is certaily a chance.  Then again, losing all six isn't likely, but there is the equal chance.    

Based on your assumption that we lose to Nova and Creighton, and considering the other six games to be tossups, that leads to a most likely record of 3-5 over the next eight.  

yeah, except they aren't rolling dice they are playing a basketball game.

[mu03eng]

yeah, except they aren't rolling dice they are playing a basketball game.

This is correct, just because we win a toss up has almost no impact on future results.

I say almost because injuries certainly impact as well as accounting for a very minor impact of "mentality" or "confidence" after a win or loss.

Just like if we beat Nova doesn't mean we win or lose the rest.  We could go 6-2 beating Creighton/Nova and losing to Providence and Seton Hall.

[The Equalizer]

This is correct, just because we win a toss up has almost no impact on future results.

I say almost because injuries certainly impact as well as accounting for a very minor impact of "mentality" or "confidence" after a win or loss.

Just like if we beat Nova doesn't mean we win or lose the rest.  We could go 6-2 beating Creighton/Nova and losing to Providence and Seton Hall.

And we could go 2-6 beating Creighton/Nova and losing all the rest of the games.

I'm just observing that its tough to reconcile the statement that "I think MU has a better than average shot to go 6-2 at least" with the obsevation that we're playing 2 teams that are clearly better than us, and six more that you characterized as "toss ups"

We certainly have a shot at 6-2, but its not "better than average".

[NersEllenson]

Curious that you think 6-2 is a legitimate chance considering the rest of your post.  We will not win another game the rest of the season if it takes 30 minutes for Buzz to figure out which combination of players works best.  Butler was the easiest game we had left on the schedule and it took 30 minutes plus we were down 10+ before he figured it out.  That won't work against any other team left on the schedule.  Also think the success of the team, with Jake and Derrick on the floor in the Butler game will only give Buzz more false confidence that they can get it done against tougher competition.....

+1000.  Well said

Hopefully Buzz realizes at minimum Todd needs 30 minutes per game, and Deonte 20....regardless of if they have the "hot hand."  Seems he's hell bent on riding Derrick 30...and even with the above changes...I'd vote 5-3.  Just don't see wins over Creighton, Nova...and see them losing at least 1 of Xavier, Providence or St, John's.

[chapman]

We certainly have a shot at 6-2, but its not "better than average".

Unless the average is below 8.14%, since that's the probability of 6-2 or better.    

[jsheim]

The Poll is closed and thanks for voting.
My Question is answered...Scoopers are not Dreamers but we are optimists.
The bell curve might look like we're realists as a whole...but the Poll is actually slanted positively.
5-3 is the peak of the bell....that's actually good given our past performance and coming competition.

Just think if we'd beaten..say...ASU and SDSU...we would be 15-8 and 5-3 would really look like a tourney bid....most of use would be saying 6-2 even with the same conference performance.

I am a dreamer and I will always choose the option that gets us in the tourney...I chose 7-1...if we lose to Seton hall, I would chose 7-0 from there...and if we loose again, I'll be hanging on the BET. Thats what I really like about being a fan...hoping and dreaming.

[BM1090]

Looking at the schedule, 6-2 seems to be a tough sell. But looking at the games individually....we have a solid shot to win every single one besides @Nova. So one game at a time. Starts on Tuesday. Need to go 1-0.

[AirPunches]

Why do so many feel @NOVA is unwinnable? I feel that Creighton and St. Johns pose just as tough, if not tougher matchups.

[madtownwarrior]

Really? Hello?   Cause MU got lucky to take Vill to OT at home.   Gives great confidence for going on the road to Vill?    I think:

MU loses @ Villl, Creighton , St Johns, @ Seton Hall, @ Providence

Wins:  @ Depaul, Georgetown, Xavier

so 3 - 5


But then goes on a hot run in the BE tourney - only to lose by a last second 3 by McDermott - oh, the irony and agony of MU BBall....

Why do so many feel @NOVA is unwinnable? I feel that Creighton and St. Johns pose just as tough, if not tougher matchups.

[NCMUFan]

4-4 or if they get real motivated 5-3.