MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: brewcity77 on February 24, 2023, 06:32:29 AM
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Marquette has moved up on the S-Curve and instead of talking about if, we're talking about where. Cracked Sidewalks looks at the four most likely NCAA sites Marquette could end up playing at, along with the first weekend opponent that might put a favored seed at a geographical disadvantage. We also have that new S-Curve and bracket, with Marquette's path featuring nothing longer than a 7-hour drive.
https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2023/02/march-travel-plans.html
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All of this while still finding time to be a dad and a hero.
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Geographical Nightmare Draw: No one wants to be a 3-seed headed to Columbus to play the Dayton Flyers. The NCAA doesn't allow protected seeds to play any school within 50 miles of the site, but Dayton's campus is 70 miles from Nationwide Arena. Flyer fans would pack that venue and have all the hometown fans on their side.
Typically, ABD.
But unnatural carnal knowledge Dayton, bring them on.
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Let’s win out!
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Thanks, Brew. Did I read somewhere that 3 seeds automatically play at a Friday/Sunday first round site or does it not matter?
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I do not want to see Northwestern in round of 32. Something about that team.
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Thanks, Brew. Did I read somewhere that 3 seeds automatically play at a Friday/Sunday first round site or does it not matter?
No, and I think they would prefer at least one of them be Thursday/Saturday because they usually keep the at-large play-in teams on the 11-seed line. I had to move Charleston up to an 11 to allow Mississippi State/Wisconsin to be a play-in.
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I do not want to see Northwestern in round of 32. Something about that team.
Don't worry. Stevie and Oso will keep us competitive in the academic portion, and we'd more than make up the difference in the basketball portion.
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I do not want to see Northwestern in round of 32. Something about that team.
Personally, I would prefer to see them than any of the other 6s in that scenario. You’re going to most likely be playing a top 25 team. I would rather play Northwestern who is appropriately seeded there than the other 3 teams who are probably under seeded because of injuries.
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Typically, ABD.
But unnatural carnal knowledge Dayton, bring them on.
1) Dayton has to win the A-10 tournament first.
2) Dayton would more likely be a 12 or 13 than a 14.
3) A 12, 13, or 14 seed getting that type of geographic advantage would be a travesty.
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Brew, does your S-Curve assume that the reveal factored in K-State's loss to Oklahoma? That wasn't clear to me when they did the reveal. If it didn't, would you put them behind MU?
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Jimmy Mac and I are still pissed MU is doing well enough to move off the 4 seed line and a game at Orlando! >:( ;D
But since I may have a meeting in Albany that week...... ;)
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Jimmy Mac and I are still pissed MU is doing well enough to move off the 4 seed line and a game at Orlando! >:( ;D
But since I may have a meeting in Albany that week...... ;)
I'm in SW Florida for work that whole following week so Orlando would have been just fine for me as well haha. Guess a pit stop to Columbus on the way will have to work!
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Jimmy Mac and I are still pissed MU is doing well enough to move off the 4 seed line and a game at Orlando! >:( ;D
But since I may have a meeting in Albany that week...... ;)
I'm going to be in Florida the following week, so no help to me either.
Kinda hoping we make the regionals in Louisville and I can convince my wife to stop in the drive down.
And maybe drive through Houston on the way back to Milwaukee the following weekend.
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I do not want to see Northwestern in round of 32. Something about that team.
Of all the teams that are potential 6 seeds that I wouldn’t want MU to face in the second round, Northwestern wouldn’t be near the top of the list.
I understand that MU (like almost everyone) could lose to a 6 seed. But I can’t get too concerned about a team that lost twice to Michigan, including getting blown out on their home court. I would rather see MU play a team like that than one with raw athleticism.
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I do not want to see Northwestern in round of 32. Something about that team.
COLE
There is nothing about Northwestern. If they run into a decent team, they'll be one and done.
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Marquette has moved up on the S-Curve and instead of talking about if, we're talking about where. Cracked Sidewalks looks at the four most likely NCAA sites Marquette could end up playing at, along with the first weekend opponent that might put a favored seed at a geographical disadvantage. We also have that new S-Curve and bracket, with Marquette's path featuring nothing longer than a 7-hour drive.
https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2023/02/march-travel-plans.html
Your excellent write up includes something I have never seen before.
You mention a 3 seed facing a 14 seed Dayton in Columbus as a "nightmare scenario"
I have never seen that the NCAA will not allow a protected seed to face a team located within 50 miles of the site in the first round. All I have seen from the NCAA site is a statement that:
"To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first four lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the first round."
I have not seen any specific definition of "home crowd disadvantage", but it should be clear that allowing Dayton to play in Columbus would violate that principle.
Has the NCAA provided more specific guidelines than those published on the NCAA.com website?
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COLE
There is nothing about Northwestern. If they run into a decent team, they'll be one and done.
Hope so.
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Hope so.
i know so
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i know so
Ok champ.
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Didn’t we play the Murray St Ja Morants in their own backyard?
Were we a 4 or 5 seed that year?
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It came up in a discussion recently and now I can't find the source. I'll dig around and see if I can find it.
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Ok champ.
8-)
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Didn’t we play the Murray St Ja Morants in their own backyard?
Were we a 4 or 5 seed that year?
5. Yes.
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Didn’t we play the Murray St Ja Morants in their own backyard?
Were we a 4 or 5 seed that year?
The game against Ja Morant was in 2019. MU was a 5 seed and the game was played in Hartford, CT so no home crowd advantage either way.
MU did play Murray State in Louisville in 2012 in a second round 3 vs 6 game. If the NCAA had the current home crowd advantage principle in 2012 it would not have applied. I was at that game and, between the Murray State fans and the UK fans there to see the Cats in the second game, MS had a huge home crowd advantage, but MU overcame it.
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Brew, maybe you know this. When the committee decides placement, do they go by driving distance or as the crow flies?
I ask because with yesterday's results, I think it's possible that we're ahead of Kansas State but behind Texas and Baylor. Texas and Baylor are closer to Des Moines by driving but are actually geographically closer to Denver. My guess is that both Baylor and Texas would prefer to be placed in Denver (easier flight and larger alumni bases in Denver). Could that mean we sneak into Des Moines with Kansas?
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Brew, maybe you know this. When the committee decides placement, do they go by driving distance or as the crow flies?
I ask because with yesterday's results, I think it's possible that we're ahead of Kansas State but behind Texas and Baylor. Texas and Baylor are closer to Des Moines by driving but are actually geographically closer to Denver. My guess is that both Baylor and Texas would prefer to be placed in Denver (easier flight and larger alumni bases in Denver). Could that mean we sneak into Des Moines with Kansas?
Good question! Kinda hopin for some Columbus action.
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Brew, maybe you know this. When the committee decides placement, do they go by driving distance or as the crow flies?
I’m not sure it’s either. I think the language is something like “natural area of interest”as opposed to a mileage comparison exercise. Would be interesting in learning what considerations are made.
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Brew I’ve got a question for ya if you see this-
I noticed that in your bracket the 2 seed “locations” are different than in say Lunardis bracket.
Meaning, his current bracket has Sacramento, Denver, Birmingham, and Columbus all hosting a 2 seed game, whereas yours the host cities are different.
I assumed, it seems incorrectly, that the locations of the four 2 seed games are “pre-set” just like the locations of the four three seed games etc etc.
Is that not the case? I was just hoping that Marquette couldn’t climb up to the 2 line and then get shipped out to Sacramento because they are the host of a 2 seed game and Arizona drops down to the 3 line sort of thing.
Just when I thought I was starting to understand some of the location stuff I realized I didn’t. It seems a bit more complex now that, at least in my mind, it seems like both a 2 and 3 seed are in play
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Brew I’ve got a question for ya if you see this-
I noticed that in your bracket the 2 seed “locations” are different than in say Lunardis bracket.
Meaning, his current bracket has Sacramento, Denver, Birmingham, and Columbus all hosting a 2 seed game, whereas yours the host cities are different.
I assumed, it seems incorrectly, that the locations of the four 2 seed games are “pre-set” just like the locations of the four three seed games etc etc.
Is that not the case? I was just hoping that Marquette couldn’t climb up to the 2 line and then get shipped out to Sacramento because they are the host of a 2 seed game and Arizona drops down to the 3 line sort of thing.
Just when I thought I was starting to understand some of the location stuff I realized I didn’t. It seems a bit more complex now that, at least in my mind, it seems like both a 2 and 3 seed are in play
That's not how it works. The sites are not locked into certain seeds.
It's probably that both Alabama and Houston will be at the same first round site, while another site could get two four seeds. There's no rules for what seeds go where
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Brew I’ve got a question for ya if you see this-
I noticed that in your bracket the 2 seed “locations” are different than in say Lunardis bracket.
Meaning, his current bracket has Sacramento, Denver, Birmingham, and Columbus all hosting a 2 seed game, whereas yours the host cities are different.
I assumed, it seems incorrectly, that the locations of the four 2 seed games are “pre-set” just like the locations of the four three seed games etc etc.
Is that not the case? I was just hoping that Marquette couldn’t climb up to the 2 line and then get shipped out to Sacramento because they are the host of a 2 seed game and Arizona drops down to the 3 line sort of thing.
Just when I thought I was starting to understand some of the location stuff I realized I didn’t. It seems a bit more complex now that, at least in my mind, it seems like both a 2 and 3 seed are in play
It’s not based off the seed number. It’s based off of what the team is, how far they are from home, and what other teams in front of them chose as their tournament site.
I wish I could remember where but someone wrote essentially how it all breaks down.
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Brew I’ve got a question for ya if you see this-
I noticed that in your bracket the 2 seed “locations” are different than in say Lunardis bracket.
Meaning, his current bracket has Sacramento, Denver, Birmingham, and Columbus all hosting a 2 seed game, whereas yours the host cities are different.
I assumed, it seems incorrectly, that the locations of the four 2 seed games are “pre-set” just like the locations of the four three seed games etc etc.
Is that not the case? I was just hoping that Marquette couldn’t climb up to the 2 line and then get shipped out to Sacramento because they are the host of a 2 seed game and Arizona drops down to the 3 line sort of thing.
Just when I thought I was starting to understand some of the location stuff I realized I didn’t. It seems a bit more complex now that, at least in my mind, it seems like both a 2 and 3 seed are in play
See this thread:
https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=64371.0
Post 32, 37, 39 do great jobs of explaining what you’re looking for.
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It’s not based off the seed number. It’s based off of what the team is, how far they are from home, and what other teams in front of them chose as their tournament site.
I wish I could remember where but someone wrote essentially how it all breaks down.
OK, but who at Marquette chooses the site? Is it the Coach, the AD or some committee?
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OK, but who at Marquette chooses the site? Is it the Coach, the AD or some committee?
Pretty sure they have buzz, crean, Wojo, the hauser and ellenson parents, and wardle decide it.
But honestly, I don’t know. If I remember correctly per Brew it’s more or less based on distance from the school? Maybe the word “chose” or “choose” was a bad choice by me. Sorry.
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Awesome, thank you for the clarification and help getting to the info.
I had read that, thought I understood it, but I guess I had a pre-conceived notion that the sites had preset seeds and that they fit the protected seeds in order from 1-16 in the nearest site that has said seed available.
So, reading that, it would seem that Marquette has an extremely high probability of landing in Columbus or Des Moines, it’s two closest destinations amirite?
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Awesome, thank you for the clarification and help getting to the info.
I had read that, thought I understood it, but I guess I had a pre-conceived notion that the sites had preset seeds and that they fit the protected seeds in order from 1-16 in the nearest site that has said seed available.
So, reading that, it would seem that Marquette has an extremely high probability of landing in Columbus or Des Moines, it’s two closest destinations amirite?
Low probability of landing in Des Moines because there is too much competition. Kansas, Texas, Baylor, and Kansas State all competing for those two protected seed spots.
Good chance at Columbus. If not there, then Greensboro or Albany.
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Low probability of landing in Des Moines because there is too much competition. Kansas, Texas, Baylor, and Kansas State all competing for those two protected seed spots.
Good chance at Columbus. If not there, then Greensboro or Albany.
I'm not convinced that Texas and Baylor are competing for Des Moines. I think Denver makes a lot more sense for both of them. If that's the case, it comes down to MU or K-State for who gets seeded higher. Right now, I think we have a slight edge on them.
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I'm not convinced that Texas and Baylor are competing for Des Moines. I think Denver makes a lot more sense for both of them. If that's the case, it comes down to MU or K-State for who gets seeded higher. Right now, I think we have a slight edge on them.
I am confident two of Texas, Baylor, and Kansas State will end up in Denver. (Unless Arizona goes to Denver instead of Sacramento.) One Big 12 team joins Kansas in Des Moines.
I still think Kansas State is comfortably top 9. Can't justify Marquette over Kansas State. Marquette and Tennessee are a notch lower.
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Brew, maybe you know this. When the committee decides placement, do they go by driving distance or as the crow flies?
I ask because with yesterday's results, I think it's possible that we're ahead of Kansas State but behind Texas and Baylor. Texas and Baylor are closer to Des Moines by driving but are actually geographically closer to Denver. My guess is that both Baylor and Texas would prefer to be placed in Denver (easier flight and larger alumni bases in Denver). Could that mean we sneak into Des Moines with Kansas?
Sorry for the late response...yesterday was my daughter's birthday so not a lot of Scooping.
I've heard both explanations given. I use driving distance because it's the easiest quick calculation. Baylor is the big question mark, but Gonzaga is worth watching as well. I think Texas will be in Denver. It's their second choice (Birmingham, but they aren't getting that) regardless.
Baylor could go either way. Right now, I'd guess the S-Curve has Baylor, Arizona, Marquette, K-State, and Gonzaga all in that 7-11 range on the S-Curve. Baylor would probably be happy with Des Moines or Denver, Arizona with Sacramento or Denver, Marquette with Des Moines or Columbus (closer driving listed first for those three). But if they put Arizona in Sacto, Baylor in Des Moines, they have one spot in Denver left. Do they consider giving Gonzaga Denver considering how much further their next available option (Columbus) would be since K-State and Marquette could then have relatively close options? I think they'll follow the curve, but depending on how it shakes out and if Gonzaga is ahead of us (certainly arguable) they could send Gonzaga to Columbus and us to Greensboro. I don't think that's likely, but it's not implausible.
Will be scrubbing the next two days to hopefully have better answers.
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Great explanation Brew. Here's my question: If Gonzaga doesn't get Sacramento or Denver, does distance even matter at that point?
Basically, once Gonzaga enters what I will call "must fly" territory, why give them location preference over a team within driving distance? Gonzaga fans would have to fly to Columbus anyway, so why double Marquette's travel distance?
But if Gonzaga gets a location accommodation, I think it will be Sacramento or Denver, creating a domino effect that pushes teams east. Leaving us something like this:
Sacramento
UCLA
Arizona/Gonzaga
Denver
Texas
Gonzaga/Arizona
Des Moines
Kansas
Baylor
Columbus
Purdue
Kansas State
Which would send Marquette to either Greensboro or Albany. Not ideal for Marquette, but both of those sites are closer to Milwaukee than Denver is to Spokane. It would keep the travel distances pretty balanced for the 2 and 3 seeds. I could see that happening if the committee doesn't want to send Gonzaga into the Eastern time zone.