It only gets worse for Bucky

[Silkk the Shaka]

I understand all of it im just tired of everyone settling for mediocrity. Everyone always expects us to lose to Xavier, Villanova, Butler, Seton Hall. When the hell do we finally turn the corner. I remember when we have james, Mcneal and matthews. We would go in anywhere and expect to win. Uconn, Louiville, Syracuse all top 15 teams it never mattered we would come out with a win. I just want the program to get back to where its expected we make the tournament and at least the 2nd round.

My point about the losses is that we have 8 already to wisconsins 13. 8 losses is alot to have at this point of the season doesn't matter if we played xavier x 2 or villanova x 2 the fact is we ALWAYS lose the big games. And to say that Wisconsin is so much worse is quite a stretch.

Except... they went 10-6 / 10-6 / 11-7 in the Big East their first three years, and 1-3 in the NCAA tournament over that span. So... we didn't always come out with a win?

[GooooMarquette]

In all the Badgers talk i find it funny that with how bad they are they only have 5 more losses than we do. Does that say something about the state of our program?

No, because the number of losses doesn't account for strength of schedule.  Our schedule has been stronger this year - both in and out of conference.  That's reflected in the current Realtime RPIs:

MU:  47
UW@Madison:  141

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Marquette's best win: Seton Hall by 20. Wisconsin's best win: Western Kentucky by 1.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Nebraska is putting together a very odd high major resume. They could finish 14-4 in the Big 10 with one win over a tournament team. Will a 45 RPI be good enough with a 103 SOS and very little substance on the resume?

Maryland is in a similar boat. The numbers will look good but there's not much behind them. It'll be really interesting to see what happens with the Big 10 bubble teams.

One of Maryland or Nebraska is going to make the tournament.  Nebraska's toughest two games are @ Minnesota and vs. Maryland.  If they go 5-1 to finish B10 play, I can't see a 13-5 B10 team not making the tournament, even if their computer numbers are meh (RPI: 51; SOS: 103) in that scenario.

Again, I'd love to see the B10 get 4 bids, but it will be 5 when all is said and done.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

One of Maryland or Nebraska is going to make the tournament.  Nebraska's toughest two games are @ Minnesota and vs. Maryland.  If they go 5-1 to finish B10 play, I can't see a 13-5 B10 team not making the tournament, even if their computer numbers are meh (RPI: 51; SOS: 103) in that scenario.

Again, I'd love to see the B10 get 4 bids, but it will be 5 when all is said and done.

But the B1G is AAC quality this year.  Nebraska also got a weak B1G schedule. Purdue, Ohio St, Michigan St, Michigan, and Maryland only once each. 1-3 so far with Maryland to go. No road wins of note.

It'll be an interesting case of quantity wins vs quality wins. If you look past the conference name, Nebraska's resume has nothing that says NCAA tournament.

[🏀]

Nebraska will get in, and their blind resume will be great Twitter fodder.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I understand all of it im just tired of everyone settling for mediocrity. Everyone always expects us to lose to Xavier, Villanova, Butler, Seton Hall. When the hell do we finally turn the corner. I remember when we have james, Mcneal and matthews. We would go in anywhere and expect to win. Uconn, Louiville, Syracuse all top 15 teams it never mattered we would come out with a win. I just want the program to get back to where its expected we make the tournament and at least the 2nd round.

My point about the losses is that we have 8 already to wisconsins 13. 8 losses is alot to have at this point of the season doesn't matter if we played xavier x 2 or villanova x 2 the fact is we ALWAYS lose the big games. And to say that Wisconsin is so much worse is quite a stretch.

You are remembering wrong. Here is the 3 amigos record against top 15 teams:

05-06: 2-2 (2-3 if you include losing to #16 West Virginia)
06-07: 3-2
07-08: 1-3 (1-4 if you include losing to #17 Pitt) (The 1 win was against #15 Notre Dame so 0-3 against the top 14)
08-09: 1-6 (1-7 if you include losing to #16 Tennessee) (The 1 win was against #15 Villanova, so 0-6 against the top 14)
Total: 7-13 against top 15 (5-13 against top 14) (7-16 against top 17)

During the 3 Amigos era we did not go into games with top 15 teams and "always come out with a win." We lost almost twice as many as we won. Switch "top 15" to "top 14" or to "top 17" and the numbers are even worse. I can't speak for others but I went in expecting a loss to top 15 teams just as much back then as I do now. It shouldn't be surprising, beating top 15 teams is tough no matter who you are.

What I will say is that I do miss going into the first game of a season with the expectation that we will make the tournament. When I was a student (07-11) I never thought about missing the postseason or even the NIT when the season started. We were on a tournament appearance streak and it seemed like an automatic that we would get there every year...I felt that way even going into Buzz' last disaster of a season. The first two years of Wojo I had zero confidence we would sniff the NCAAs and only held a small wild hope that we would make the NIT in year 2. This year and last year I went in expecting to be one of the last teams to sneak in, knowing we would be on the brink all season.

Next season I am looking forward to being the first of the Wojo era where I am not worried about making the tournament, I am worried about seeding. Barring disaster, I feel confident that I will feel that way for the next two years. With good recruiting, I think we could be looking at another tournament streak that could rival and surpass the one that I experienced when I was a student.

Oh...and the difference between 8 and 13 losses in a college basketball season is humongous. Especially with the team with 8 losses has played a much tougher schedule than the team with 13. Just check out the KenPom numbers:

MU: 39
UW: 90

[MUDPT]

I know the future is bright but its been a few years and im ready for a tourny run. I still belive this team can get to the second weekend of the tournament IF we stay off the 8/9 seed line. The way we shoot the 3 we can beat anyone. Our D is always the reason we lose. I fully understand that next years team is going to be the best team we have had since out elite 8 run. I am looking forward to the future its just been a painful journey.

Top 15 wins from 06-09
2006: #2 UConn
2007: #9 Duke, #8 Pitt, #12 Pitt
2008: #14 ND (in the BET, they were unranked when we beat them at home)
2009: #15 Nova

6 wins over top 15 teams in 4 years.

[Tugg Speedman]

In all the Badgers talk i find it funny that with how bad they are they only have 5 more losses than we do. Does that say something about the state of our program?

5 more losses?  You know how big a difference 5 losses is?

Also, Bucky has 8 games left and really only have a chance at 2 more wins (home against NW this week at @Ill).  Maybe they get lucky and sneak in a game but they can also just as easily lose one of these two games too.

That's 19 losses, 20 when they lose in the B1G tourney (on Feb 28!)


The Patriots "only" beat the Jags by 24 points.  What does that say about the state of the Patriots dynasty?

[🏀]

Oh...and the difference between 8 and 13 losses in a college basketball season is humongous. Especially with the team with 8 losses has played a much tougher schedule than the team with 13. Just check out the KenPom numbers:

MU: 39
UW: 90

Let's talk about half of the Big Ten, according to KenPom:

Rutgers - 135
Illinois - 106
Iowa - 102
Wisconsin - 90
Indiana - 88
Minnesota - 84
Northwestern - 82

Only SJU (89), GTown (109) and DePaul (118) are worse than these seven teams. The rest of the Big East is top 60, if you remove Providence (59), the rest of the Big East is top 40.

[MuMark]

Marquette's best win: Seton Hall by 20. Wisconsin's best win: Western Kentucky by 1.

If only the schools had played this year so we could get a gauge on the state of the 2 programs......


5 more losses? You can't be serious......look at who our losses are against....

[Tugg Speedman]

If only the schools had played this year so we could get a gauge on the state of the 2 programs......


5 more losses? You can't be serious......look at who are losses are against....

Reminder, Bucky's loss to MU this year was the second worse Kohl Hole loss in building history (19 points). 

The worst was the week before when tOSU beat Bucky in the Kohl Hole by 25.

What does that tell you about the relative state of the programs?

[Loose Cannon]

I understand all of it im just tired of everyone settling for mediocrity. Everyone always expects us to lose to Xavier, Villanova, Butler, Seton Hall. When the hell do we finally turn the corner. I remember when we have james, Mcneal and matthews. We would go in anywhere and expect to win. Uconn, Louiville, Syracuse all top 15 teams it never mattered we would come out with a win. I just want the program to get back to where its expected we make the tournament and at least the 2nd round.

My point about the losses is that we have 8 already to wisconsins 13. 8 losses is alot to have at this point of the season doesn't matter if we played xavier x 2 or villanova x 2 the fact is we ALWAYS lose the big games. And to say that Wisconsin is so much worse is quite a stretch.

Sorry your not enjoying the season.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Top 15 wins from 06-09
2006: #2 UConn
2007: #9 Duke, #8 Pitt, #12 Pitt
2008: #14 ND (in the BET, they were unranked when we beat them at home)
2009: #15 Nova

6 wins over top 15 teams in 4 years.

We also beat #9 Pitt in 2006 and I have Notre Dame as #15 in 2008 but otherwise right on.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The Nebraska question is a really interesting one. They only have 6 games left and 5 of them are against teams currently outside the top 100 in RPI. The last is to #58 Maryland at home. None of these are really resume builders and all of them except arguably Maryland would be resume killers. Here's what their RPI and SOS would approximately look like with different possible outcomes:

6-0: RPI 45 SOS 105
5-1: RPI 51 SOS 105
4-2: RPI 65 SOS 105

Clearly if they lose two they are done...maybe a run to the B1G championship could salvage it but I doubt it.  Losing 1 game is very iffy. My gut would tell me they are out at that point without some magic in the B1G Tournament. Even 6-0....It's hard to imagine a 23-8 B1G team being left out but those aren't great computer numbers. Two years ago, Saint Bonaventure was left out with an RPI of 46 and an SOS of 83. Is high major bias enough to overcome such a dreadful SOS?

Nebraksa's signature win right now is a home win against Michigan (#37 in RPI). To their credit they did pound them by 20. Their second best win is a home win against Boston College (#72 RPI). That's it for top 100 wins. They have 2 top 100 wins. If they beat Maryland at home they will have 3. If you keep going....they only have 6 total top 150 wins. The 2 previously mentioned, one at home to Minnesota (#107), one at Northwestern (#101), and two against Wisconsin (#141). 11 of their 17 wins are against teams outside the top 150.

They also have a neutral court loss to UCF (#70) which isn't that bad. But also two sub 100 losses to Penn State and St. John's. I don't think they can afford a third sub 100 loss and make the tournament.

In conclusion, I think the only way Nebraska should make the tournament is if they win out and beat someone worthwhile in the B1G tournament. If they make it without doing that, it will be because of high major bias.

[Husker4MU]

I went to the game in Madison last night.  What a year to have my two teams both win in the Kohl Center by an average of 15 points.  Couple of thoughts:
Nebraska Resume: I think they will get in with a 5-1 or 6-0 finish.  The big boy bias is real even though Nebraska has little heft in the resume.  This NU team is pretty good and would give MU all sorts of trouble with their athleticism, especially Palmer.  Watson drives me nuts.  They were screwed by the B1G scheduling.  No double plays against the good teams and MSU, Purdue and Ohio St all on the road.

Now on to Bucky...hoo boy. 

The natives are restless in Madison.  The place was only 3/4 full.  The lower student section bowl wasn't even at capacity.  I heard at least three audible "Noooo" shouts when Happ hoisted his first 3, which he made.  He then took 3(!) more 3s.  In fairness, one was a shot clock necessity. 

Outside of Happ, no one is willing or able to take a shot.  Lots of pump fakes and tepidly prodding the defense on faux drives.  Nebraska finally trapped Happ with a 1-3-1 and all hell broke loose.  NU has shown that look in multiple games this year, but UW was not ready and had no answer at home.

I think Gard has mismanaged this team.  They are fragile.  I'm used to Bucky working things out after injuries, much my chagrin.  Instead, read Gard's postgame comments.  Lots of excuses - inexperience, injuries, etc.   Of course, the media is lapping this up and carrying water for him.  I seem to remember this same program and it's media horde laughing at programs that make excuses..."Next man up" and all that.  Gard said after the loss in Lincoln that "we almost have to pitch a perfect game to win."  What the hell?  No wonder the team is hesitant to shoot and make a play. That has to affect the players.  A perfect game to beat Nebraska?  In basketball? Or football for that matter these days.

If I was a UW fan, I would be nervous.  Lack of adjustments in game?  Check.  Slow recruiting?  Check.  Lack of player development?  Check.  Woe is me leadership?  Check.  As a Marquette & Nebraska fan, I look forward to many more years of the Greg Gard regime.

Last note, I am so happy that Ted Valentine doesn't do Big East games.  His showboating and preening is maddening.  What a punk.

[GGGG]

If I was a UW fan, I would be nervous.  Lack of adjustments in game?  Check.  Slow recruiting?  Check.  Lack of player development?  Check.  Woe is me leadership?  Check.  As a Marquette & Nebraska fan, I look forward to many more years of the Greg Gard regime.

I truly think that UW is in trouble for many of the reasons you mention.  I do realize that he is suffering from poor recruiting toward the end of the Bo era.  But while that may lead to lack of overall success, it doesn't excuse the implosion that this year has become.  And unlike Wojo's first year where you could see a bright spot on the horizon, UW doesn't have that.  Very little player development and still no recruits for 2018.

[Nukem2]

I truly think that UW is in trouble for many of the reasons you mention.  I do realize that he is suffering from poor recruiting toward the end of the Bo era.  But while that may lead to lack of overall success, it doesn't excuse the implosion that this year has become.  And unlike Wojo's first year where you could see a bright spot on the horizon, UW doesn't have that.  Very little player development and still no recruits for 2018.

True, though they do have  redshirts Trice, King and Anderson coming into the fold next year.  Their guard situation will be much better.

[MuMark]

In all the Badgers talk i find it funny that with how bad they are they only have 5 more losses than we do. Does that say something about the state of our program?

So by this logic Duke, Michigan State and Xavier only have 5 less losses then we do ......what does that say about the state of those programs? North Carolina only has 2 less!

Armageddon!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

True, though they do have  redshirts Trice, King and Anderson coming into the fold next year.  Their guard situation will be much better.

This is true. Wisconsin "should" see a bit of a resurgence next season. They get Trice and King back from injury. They will get a full season of Reuvers (tried to redshirt him at the beginning of the season). Add a decent transfer in Trevor Andreson (how they get these guys to agree to be walk ons when they could be scholarship players at mid majors is beyond me). They add two freshmen but neither look like instant impact type guys. And they get everyone but walk on Moesch back. They also still have a scholarship to give so they could get a "Gard" transfer or a late rising freshman. I'm not sure this enough to get them dancing again next season, but they should be better.

However, this is assuming Happ comes back. Personally, I think if he wants to get drafted, he will need to transfer to a top 25 type team and put up the same kind of numbers he does for Wisconsin with greater efficiency. I also don't think that Wisconsin is as transfer proof as they were under Bo. We also have yet to see Gard develop players the way Bo did.....and once Happ (and to a lesser extent Iverson) graduate....they won't be left with much for the 19-20 season.

I made a thread earlier this year where I said this season's win was the mark of turning point in our rivalry with Bucky. I still think it is true. They are using the same recruiting strategy in 2019 that screwed them in the 2018 class. Only sending out a few offers and going all in on those few. I think they have only offered DJ Carton, Matthew Hurt, and Nobal Days. Hurt ain't going to Wisconsin. And Wojo is hard after Carton and was at least checking in on Days. I would love to see us snatch both up and leave Bucky swinging in the wind again. Oh....and Badger fans trashed Days and his dad on twitter when they tweeted support for Herro's decommit. God some people are dumb.

[buckchuckler]

We also beat #9 Pitt in 2006 and I have Notre Dame as #15 in 2008 but otherwise right on.

It is hard to believe Pitt was ever ranked at this point.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Nobal Days has a really unique, weird stat line. Something like 9 PPG, 14 RPG, 6 APG, 4 BPG, 2 SPG, 3.5 TO, and really poor shooting splits. 43% FG 60%-ish FT and 4-17 3 FG at last check.

Those stats tell me Days is very raw offensively. Might be a roll player but not a star. So Days is way down my list.

[We R Final Four]

This is true. Wisconsin "should" see a bit of a resurgence next season. They get Trice and King back from injury. They will get a full season of Reuvers (tried to redshirt him at the beginning of the season). Add a decent transfer in Trevor Andreson (how they get these guys to agree to be walk ons when they could be scholarship players at mid majors is beyond me). They add two freshmen but neither look like instant impact type guys. And they get everyone but walk on Moesch back. They also still have a scholarship to give so they could get a "Gard" transfer or a late rising freshman. I'm not sure this enough to get them dancing again next season, but they should be better.

However, this is assuming Happ comes back. Personally, I think if he wants to get drafted, he will need to transfer to a top 25 type team and put up the same kind of numbers he does for Wisconsin with greater efficiency. I also don't think that Wisconsin is as transfer proof as they were under Bo. We also have yet to see Gard develop players the way Bo did.....and once Happ (and to a lesser extent Iverson) graduate....they won't be left with much for the 19-20 season.

I made a thread earlier this year where I said this season's win was the mark of turning point in our rivalry with Bucky. I still think it is true. They are using the same recruiting strategy in 2019 that screwed them in the 2018 class. Only sending out a few offers and going all in on those few. I think they have only offered DJ Carton, Matthew Hurt, and Nobal Days. Hurt ain't going to Wisconsin. And Wojo is hard after Carton and was at least checking in on Days. I would love to see us snatch both up and leave Bucky swinging in the wind again. Oh....and Badger fans trashed Days and his dad on twitter when they tweeted support for Herro's decommit. God some people are dumb.

Where is Hurt projected to go?  Just watched a special on him on FSN.  Solid big guy.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Where is Hurt projected to go?  Just watched a special on him on FSN.  Solid big guy.

Pretty sure he is a strong Duke lean.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Hurt is top 5 so I expect a blueblood. Duke is a good bet. His older brother plays at Minnesota so slim chance of a Wally-Henry situation but doubtful.