Chicos, Let us Know How the Rain Works Out in S. Cal This Week

[ChicosBailBonds]

I take pride in my lawn and landscaping, I don't need the links.

However, I was happy to let it go brown when ponds and creeks were bone dry two years ago.

I'd be happier to keep it green, provide the water that is available to farmers to keep their farms running, growing the essential foods this country needs instead of for the smelt fish.

Here come's the other part of the impact I mentioned the other day.  So that poorer person in Nebraska feeding their kids, trying to do the right thing will see how much more that Asparagus is, or tomato, avocado, etc, and she will decide to take a pass and unhealthy choices will be made.  Happens all the time, one of the biggest reasons the poor gravitate toward fast food....it's cheap.  But the good news is, the smelt fish will be ok. 

http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/article/20140302/NEWS02/303020018/What-s-drought-California-do-your-groceries-lot-

[brandx]

You know, I think, that it is not about the smelt fish, per se, but with a link in the food chain.

[Benny B]

AP - Forecasters see El Nino warming of Pacific Ocean

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. federal forecasters predict a warming of the central Pacific Ocean this year that will change weather worldwide.

The warming, called an El Nino, can mean an even hotter year coming up and billions of dollars in losses for food crops. Australia and South Africa should be dry while parts of South America become dry and parts become wet in an El Nino. Peru suffers the most, getting floods and poorer fishing.

But it could bring good news for some parts of the planet, leading to fewer Atlantic hurricanes and more rain next winter for drought-stricken California and southern U.S. states. It could also bring and a milder winter for the frigid U.S. northern tier next year, meteorologists say

The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration issued an official El Nino watch Thursday. An El Nino is a warming of the central Pacific once every few years, from a combination of wind and waves in the tropics. It shakes up climate around the world, changing rain and temperature patterns.

Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, says the El Nino warming should develop by this summer, but that there are no guarantees. Although early signs are appearing already a few hundred feet below the ocean surface, meteorologists say an El Nino started to brew in 2012 and then shut down suddenly and unexpectedly.

The flip side of El Nino is called a La Nina, which has a general cooling effect. It has been much more frequent than El Ninos lately, with five La Ninas and two small-to-moderate El Ninos in the past nine years. The last big El Nino was 1997-1998. Neither has appeared since mid-2012. El Ninos are usually strongest from December to April.

Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who wasn't part of NOAA's forecast, agreed that an El Nino is brewing.

"This could be a substantial event and I think we're due," Trenberth said. "And I think it could have major consequences."

Scientific studies have tied El Ninos to farming and fishing problems and to upticks in insect-born disease, such as malaria. Commodity traders even track El Nino cycles. A study by Texas A&M University economics professor Bruce McCarl found the last big El Nino of 1997-1998 cost about $3 billion in agricultural damage.

Trenberth said this El Nino may even push the globe out of a decade-long slowdown in temperature increase, "so suddenly global warming kicks into a whole new level."

Halpert, however, says El Ninos can be beneficial, and that the one being forecast is "a perfect case."

After years of dryness and low reservoirs, an El Nino's wet weather would be welcome in places like California, Halpert said.

"If they get too much rain, I think they'd rather have that situation rather than another year of drought," Halpert said. "Sometimes you have to pick your poison."
-------

Of course, the above copy/paste job is merely an excuse for me to post this:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/mkSRUf02gu8" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/mkSRUf02gu8</a>

[🏀]

Spanish for...The Nino.

[mu03eng]

AP - Forecasters see El Nino warming of Pacific Ocean

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. federal forecasters predict a warming of the central Pacific Ocean this year that will change weather worldwide.

The warming, called an El Nino, can mean an even hotter year coming up and billions of dollars in losses for food crops. Australia and South Africa should be dry while parts of South America become dry and parts become wet in an El Nino. Peru suffers the most, getting floods and poorer fishing.

But it could bring good news for some parts of the planet, leading to fewer Atlantic hurricanes and more rain next winter for drought-stricken California and southern U.S. states. It could also bring and a milder winter for the frigid U.S. northern tier next year, meteorologists say

The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration issued an official El Nino watch Thursday. An El Nino is a warming of the central Pacific once every few years, from a combination of wind and waves in the tropics. It shakes up climate around the world, changing rain and temperature patterns.

Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, says the El Nino warming should develop by this summer, but that there are no guarantees. Although early signs are appearing already a few hundred feet below the ocean surface, meteorologists say an El Nino started to brew in 2012 and then shut down suddenly and unexpectedly.

The flip side of El Nino is called a La Nina, which has a general cooling effect. It has been much more frequent than El Ninos lately, with five La Ninas and two small-to-moderate El Ninos in the past nine years. The last big El Nino was 1997-1998. Neither has appeared since mid-2012. El Ninos are usually strongest from December to April.

Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who wasn't part of NOAA's forecast, agreed that an El Nino is brewing.

"This could be a substantial event and I think we're due," Trenberth said. "And I think it could have major consequences."

Scientific studies have tied El Ninos to farming and fishing problems and to upticks in insect-born disease, such as malaria. Commodity traders even track El Nino cycles. A study by Texas A&M University economics professor Bruce McCarl found the last big El Nino of 1997-1998 cost about $3 billion in agricultural damage.

Trenberth said this El Nino may even push the globe out of a decade-long slowdown in temperature increase, "so suddenly global warming kicks into a whole new level."

Halpert, however, says El Ninos can be beneficial, and that the one being forecast is "a perfect case."

After years of dryness and low reservoirs, an El Nino's wet weather would be welcome in places like California, Halpert said.

"If they get too much rain, I think they'd rather have that situation rather than another year of drought," Halpert said. "Sometimes you have to pick your poison."
-------

Of course, the above copy/paste job is merely an excuse for me to post this:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/mkSRUf02gu8" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/mkSRUf02gu8</a>

The fall of the predecessor of the Inca empire has been blamed on a significant El Nino if I am remembering the book 1491 correctly.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The fall of the predecessor of the Inca empire has been blamed on a significant El Nino if I am remembering the book 1491 correctly.

I think you got it correct.  Did you read 1493?

[Coleman]

You know, I think, that it is not about the smelt fish, per se, but with a link in the food chain.

Shhhh. Everything is black and white. Smelt fish vs. people!!!!!!!!!

[mu03eng]

I think you got it correct.  Did you read 1493?

Not yet, it's on the bed side table along with about 7 other books I haven't gotten around to yet.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Not yet, it's on the bed side table along with about 7 other books I haven't gotten around to yet.

Sounds about right for me also.  I have a stack of like 7 also.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Sounds about right for me also.  I have a stack of like 7 also.

so, you guys in the same bed, aina?

[mu03eng]

so, you guys in the same bed, aina?

Only when we're sleeping

[ChicosBailBonds]

Shhhh. Everything is black and white. Smelt fish vs. people!!!!!!!!!

Nothing is black and white, but even shades of gray we are making decisions of fish over people to some degree.  It's absurd.

[ChicosBailBonds]

AP - Forecasters see El Nino warming of Pacific Ocean

What about this one.....


"In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year."

What actually happened?  Quietest hurricane season on record.


Or this one.....

Bloomberg Businessweek reports that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicted temperatures would be “above normal from November through January across much of the lower 48 states.”

What actually happened?  Currently the second coldest winter on record.....the Farmer's Almanac did a better job of predicting the weather this year. 

http://dailycaller.com/2014/02/20/report-farmers-almanac-more-accurate-than-govt-climate-scientists/

[akmarq]

What about this one.....


"In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year."

What actually happened?  Quietest hurricane season on record.


Or this one.....

Bloomberg Businessweek reports that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicted temperatures would be “above normal from November through January across much of the lower 48 states.”

What actually happened?  Currently the second coldest winter on record.....the Farmer's Almanac did a better job of predicting the weather this year. 

http://dailycaller.com/2014/02/20/report-farmers-almanac-more-accurate-than-govt-climate-scientists/

It's almost like looking at samples larger than one year might be relevant.

FWIW, I'm Team Smelt. Never met a smelt that wasn't delicious. People on the other hand...

[mu03eng]

It's almost like looking at samples larger than one year might be relevant.

FWIW, I'm Team Smelt. Never met a smelt that wasn't delicious. People on the other hand...

It's a matter of salt....I mean, umm,  what?

[ChicosBailBonds]

I find vegetables, fruits, nuts, etc to be much more tasty than the smelt fish...those other things need water and farmers to grow them.  Plus they bring in billions of dollars for the state economy.

[akmarq]

It's a matter of salt....I mean, umm,  what?

To be fair - pretty much anything deep fried and served with potato pancake, coleslaw, and rye bread is fine by me.

First Chicos complains about all the nuts in California, then be says he likes them and they bring money to the state. His opinions are more unpredictable than next year's weather!

[ChicosBailBonds]

To be fair - pretty much anything deep fried and served with potato pancake, coleslaw, and rye bread is fine by me.

First Chicos complains about all the nuts in California, then be says he likes them and they bring money to the state. His opinions are more unpredictable than next year's weather!

Well played.  Human fruits and nuts I hear taste much worse than regular fruits and nuts grown on trees.

[forgetful]

I find vegetables, fruits, nuts, etc to be much more tasty than the smelt fish...those other things need water and farmers to grow them.  Plus they bring in billions of dollars for the state economy.

You keep commenting that this smelt water diversion is significant….I showed you the facts that say the amount of water diverted is insignificant to agricultural needs. 

I'm sure if you did a complete analysis of the food chain, you would find that the amount of wildlife supported by the diverted water is greater than the whole additional crops you could grow with that small amount (1.3% of what is needed for agriculture).