LeBron to... odds

[GoldenWarrior]

So what are the odds in your guys' opinions for the NBA teams and landing LBJ?

I really think it's a 3 horse race for LBJ's services:  Cleveland, Chicago and Miami

Chicago - 50%
Cleveland - 40%
Miami - 10%

Cleveland is his hometown and can offer the most money (provided LBJ signs a 6 year deal, NOT a 3 year deal), still not a bad roster, but not great and capped currently restricting possible roster moves.  They are what he knows and they've done everything they reasonably could to try and win now for him, still haven't but still clearly willing to continue to pay and try.

Chicago has a strong young core in Rose and Noah to build on alongside LeBron, Chicago could also be in the running for a sign and trade for Bosh from TOR.  They still have a questionable front office and organization that hasn't been willing to pay historically and with Noah and Rose's contracts coming due in a few years, will they still be there?  Chicago really needs to convince LeBron that their front office is changing their ways and will be willing to pay...

Miami is a long shot if you ask me.  Many egos to try and pack in there and don't kid yourselves NBA players are egotistical and it isn't as easy for them to set aside their egos as it may be for any of us.  Not all 3 can have max deals here either.  Also, they would still need to fill out that roster somehow with still quality role players (yes veterans would be likely to sign for minimums to win a 'ship, but still need to find the right ones)

[reinko]

I read a scenario, Bron Bron, signs a 1 year deal with Cleveland, goes all in, giving the city and team one last shot to win a title.  If he doesn't win it, he is gone, and saves him face in his home town (which I believe is a legitimate thing in his eyes, hometown loyalty, paired with no other recent superstar, (maybe other than Shaq) ever had to switch teams to win a title, Kobe, MJ, Duncan...

[damuts222]

They still have a questionable front office and organization that hasn't been willing to pay historically and with Noah and Rose's contracts coming due in a few years, will they still be there?  Chicago really needs to convince LeBron that their front office is changing their ways and will be willing to pay...

 Luol Deng anyone, he got paid, look what good that did

[RJax55]

I read a scenario, Bron Bron, signs a 1 year deal with Cleveland, goes all in, giving the city and team one last shot to win a title.

I don't understand that scenario. He has had 7 years in Cleveland to win a title. Why does the author think that next year will be the magic year for the Cavs?

Are they going to be adding any additional talent to the roster? Plus, what big time free agent will sign a long-term deal there knowing that James might leave at the end of season? Also, if I was a Cavs fan, I would hate this. It just extends the guessing game another season. At this point, I would want Lebron to committ to the Cavs long-term or move on.

[HoopsMalone]

Cleveland has a week to pull over the biggest sign and trade in history and some how get Chris Paul, Chris Bosh, Dirk, Melo, anyone up to Cleveland.  JJ Hickson is a nice piece and then throw in a bunch of players and their next 5 draft picks or something.  It is possible, but not very likely.  That is probably the only way James stays if he is serious about winning.

Jerry Reinsdorf will pay his players.  He has done it in Chicago (MJ $30 million) and he has kept around big money players with the White Sox (ie Mark Buerlhe).  He has taken risks to win such as Dennis Rodman and Albert Bell.  I think the "owner wont pay" is not true and James will see that. 

Miami is not happening in my opinion.  I think Bosh may go down there and Wade will resign, but the Heat would be better off putting good role players around them rather than a third all-star. 

Cleveland has the edge if they make a move.  If they add an all-star calibur player, James won't even think about it.  He signs.  If they do not make a move, James has to play with Derrick Rose in Chicago.  Then the Bulls, I think, should sign a few players rather than go for two max deals.  That is just me though.

[GoldenWarrior]

I don't understand that scenario. He has had 7 years in Cleveland to win a title. Why does the author think that next year will be the magic year for the Cavs?

Are they going to be adding any additional talent to the roster? Plus, what big time free agent will sign a long-term deal there knowing that James might leave at the end of season? Also, if I was a Cavs fan, I would hate this. It just extends the guessing game another season. At this point, I would want Lebron to committ to the Cavs long-term or move on.

+1

[GoldenWarrior]

Cleveland has a week to pull over the biggest sign and trade in history and some how get Chris Paul, Chris Bosh, Dirk, Melo, anyone up to Cleveland.  JJ Hickson is a nice piece and then throw in a bunch of players and their next 5 draft picks or something.  It is possible, but not very likely.  That is probably the only way James stays if he is serious about winning.

Jerry Reinsdorf will pay his players.  He has done it in Chicago (MJ $30 million) and he has kept around big money players with the White Sox (ie Mark Buerlhe).  He has taken risks to win such as Dennis Rodman and Albert Bell.  I think the "owner wont pay" is not true and James will see that. 

Miami is not happening in my opinion.  I think Bosh may go down there and Wade will resign, but the Heat would be better off putting good role players around them rather than a third all-star. 

Cleveland has the edge if they make a move.  If they add an all-star calibur player, James won't even think about it.  He signs.  If they do not make a move, James has to play with Derrick Rose in Chicago.  Then the Bulls, I think, should sign a few players rather than go for two max deals.  That is just me though.

Why is everyone so quick to write off the Cleveland roster?  As Cleveland made moves these past few years everyone praised them as good quality moves and now all of a sudden it's just well that team sucks.  I'm not saying they are the best option for LeBron necessarily, but you take LBJ off the Cavs team and they still about beat CHI every time they played without LBJ if I'm not mistaken.  I don't think that there are THAT glaring of advantages to CHI's roster over CLE's personally... are there some, most definitely, earth shattering, no.  I do understand that playoffs is where it all matters and there the Cavs have failed collectively, but I wouldn't be so quick to just write them off.  LeBron likes a lot of the guys in CLE currently and may be wanting to see it all come together and may be willing to finally give the franchise some time to run like a franchise should instead of holding them hostage to the win a title NOW every year mentality.

Just wondering, you said if The Cavs don't make a move LeBron has to play with D Rose in Chicago... why?

[HoopsMalone]

If I was Cleveland I would go for it.  One year if need be.  You don't get chances to win titles every year.  The Cavs will not be favored, but it beats the basement.   Even if you are only delaying the basement for one year.

The Cavs roster is pretty good, but it is aging.  Shaq and Jamison are not going to be able to bring it.  I also do not think Mo Williams is a good enough compliment to James.  That guy Hickson would really need to improve for it to be a good supporting cast and Jamison and Shaq will need to stay healthy and productive, which is tough to say will happen.  They are a team where James could put the team on his back for multiple games and they could put it together still, but its no guarantee they would beat an upgraded Miami or Chicago, or even Orlando and Boston as-is.  (Though Boston is probably about done unless they make a move to get more athletic).  They definitely get eaten alive inside against LA and probably lose in 5 to the Lakers.

Most of the compliments to the Cavs team was how they fit with Lebron on offense, but no one said anything about defense.  Shaq and Jamison are a championship defensive presence inside in my opinion.  The guards on Cleveland are nothing to write home about on Cleveland either.  The playoffs say Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo light up the Cavs back court and Joakim Noah emerge as a player inside and Kevin Garnet get his game back against the Cavs front line.  Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol would destroy the Cleveland front line.

I think that Lebron needs a PG to play with, is why Derrick Rose is perfect for him to play with in the half court.  The Cavs seem to have a lot of half court sets where they pass they ball around and then James is just standing at the top and they get him the ball with the clock winding down.  A true PG allows James to go to the wing and get fed the ball in good spots.  James would be even more lethal scoring.  Rose can also create his own shot, which no one else on the Cavs can really do.  It's also just a flat out upgrade, would you rather play with Derrick Rose or Mo Williams.

And that is just the half court offense.  James and Rose would be lethal in transition together and Rose is athletic enough to cover a Kobe or a Wade if need be so Lebron would not have to.  I remember Lebron had to guard Rose against the Bulls.  Dwayne Wade would fit this need for James too. 

The Cavs should get aggressive and trade away half their team for Chris Paul or something big.  They can keep James, but not with what they have I think.

[MUBurrow]

am i the only person in the world that still thinks he's going to be a Knick?

[GoldenWarrior]

am i the only person in the world that still thinks he's going to be a Knick?

Yes

HoopsMalone:  I like your overall analysis.  The Cavs are aging in some spots and it sucks because as a Cavs fan I feel like a lot of these guys would never have been on this team in the first place if LeBron had provided us time as an organization to do it the right way... that's a whole other discussion though in itself!

Jamison will still have a productive two years if you ask me (he also has 2 more years on his contract).  Shaq MAY get resigned simply for Howard in the playoffs and that's it... no more of the Mike Brown idea of actually feeding him the ball.  Hickson is now getting into his third year and seems to be set to fulfill his potential.  Anderson is a strong defender and rebounder and just one of those glue guys.

Guard play is our biggest weakness, especially on the defensive end... it's a joke more or less.  Delonte West is our best defensive guard.  Mo can create his own shot and is pretty sound offensively, but he has no clue what defense is.  The thing though is that you think LeBron wants to play off the ball... I don't agree.  he loves passing and loves having the offense run through him.  he wants to be the creator, not the receiver.  So, in that regard and only that regard to I think that he may prefer a Mo Williams over a D Rose.  As for anything else D Rose makes sense.  The kid is a stud clearly and a better option than Mo Williams, but I'm just not sold on LeBron wanting to be playing off the ball that much.

D Rose and LBJ on a break would be impossible to defend.

[RawdogDX]

Bulls - 53
Heat - 39
Nets - 3
Nicks - 3
Cavs - 1

When Izzo was given a contract offer he asked to meet with lebron. LBJ refused to meet with him. 

I think he's done there.

[HoopsMalone]

Cleveland has no perimeter defense and defense wins titles.  Rose and Noah can play D, so the choice should be obvious for James if he leaves.

[DegenerateDish]

There are better odds of Crean coaching at Marquette again than LBJ signing a one year deal with the Cavs.

With the new CBA hanging over all these guys heads, they're all signing five year open market deals or six year sign/trade deals.

[GoldenWarrior]

There are better odds of Crean coaching at Marquette again than LBJ signing a one year deal with the Cavs.

+1

With the new CBA hanging over all these guys heads, they're all signing five year open market deals or six year sign/trade deals.

I can see LeBron signing a three year deal somewhere, whether it be CLE, Miami, CHI, etc

[shiloh26]

I still think he stays in Cleveland.  Shaq will be gone, giving Hickson more time.  If he develops, their frontcourt is just fine.  Although anything outside of Chicago's frontcourt, featuring the Joakim Noah show, would simply shrivel and die against the Lakers for some on here.  (Sorry, have to pick on Bulls fans, all in good fun).  
 
The Miami scenario, though a badass scenario, is a pipe dream.  I agree that Chicago IS the best situation, but I think LeBron likes home a little more than people think.  It's easy to get caught up in the 'where will he go' whirlwind, and forget that he really likes being in Cleveland.  The team still wins a ton of games, and now has a competent coach who won't feel the inexplicable need to play Big Z and Shaq next to each other in the damn conference semis while Varejao and Hickson watch on the bench.  

He's still looking for a reason to leave, rather than a reason not to leave.  

[HoopsMalone]

You joke about the LA frontline, but all those tip in victories they had in the playoffs suggest otherwise.  The LA big guys are the difference in this league right now. 

Noah is an up and coming defensive big man.  That is not a joke.  Stopping big men will win championships.  You don't go to the Bulls just for Noah, but he gives you something consistent for a long time.  Add Brad Miller back for cheap and another year of Gibson and Noah developing, and you get a strong defensive frontline regardless of who else comes.  That should be a good selling point.

Noah is not a huge offensive threat.... unless he is playing the Cavs:  http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3224

Interior defense is just one of Cleveland's achilles heals.  Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo torched the Cleveland backcourt. 

Cleveland can put up a lot of points, but don't get any stops.  Even the pulls put up big numbers after trading away all of their scoring.  The Cavs defense made Kirk Hinrich look like he was back at Kansas.

Even with all that, James may go back.  The Cavs are looking at making some moves.  I think Scott is a good coach.  Maybe he can get Chris Paul up to Cleveland. 

[HoopsMalone]

Hickson is definitely gone in any sign and trade as well. 

[willie warrior]

I read a scenario, Bron Bron, signs a 1 year deal with Cleveland, goes all in, giving the city and team one last shot to win a title.  If he doesn't win it, he is gone, and saves him face in his home town (which I believe is a legitimate thing in his eyes, hometown loyalty, paired with no other recent superstar, (maybe other than Shaq) ever had to switch teams to win a title, Kobe, MJ, Duncan...

Problem with a 1 year deal would be he could end up with a lot less money that might come out of salary structure established ny new CBA>

[GoldenWarrior]

You joke about the LA frontline, but all those tip in victories they had in the playoffs suggest otherwise.  The LA big guys are the difference in this league right now. 

Noah is an up and coming defensive big man.  That is not a joke.  Stopping big men will win championships.  You don't go to the Bulls just for Noah, but he gives you something consistent for a long time.  Add Brad Miller back for cheap and another year of Gibson and Noah developing, and you get a strong defensive frontline regardless of who else comes.  That should be a good selling point.

Noah is not a huge offensive threat.... unless he is playing the Cavs:  http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3224

Interior defense is just one of Cleveland's achilles heals.  Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo torched the Cleveland backcourt. 

Cleveland can put up a lot of points, but don't get any stops.  Even the pulls put up big numbers after trading away all of their scoring.  The Cavs defense made Kirk Hinrich look like he was back at Kansas.

Even with all that, James may go back.  The Cavs are looking at making some moves.  I think Scott is a good coach.  Maybe he can get Chris Paul up to Cleveland. 

Anderson plays very strong defense on the inside for the Cavaliers... really not a big difference between Anderson and Noah in that regard.  Yes, early in his career Anderson flopped all the time and has since continued to carry that tag, but if you actually take time and watch his game, his defense has truly become impressive.  there's a reason why he was in the running for defensive player of the year this past season.

Hinrich had his moments in that series, but he didn't exactly put up THAT great of numbers... Rose did.  The Cavaliers defense needs to be improved on the wings.  If your wings can guard that allows your big defenders to be in better position as well and pick up their defense.  Jamison sucks on D... look at what KG did to him, lol.

CP3 isn't coming to CLE, though I'd LOVE it is an understatement, lol.

[GoldenWarrior]

I love this video:

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[GoldenWarrior]

I love this video:

http://www.nba.com/cavaliers/morethanaplayer_splash_100630.html

Sorry the embedding didn't work...

[shiloh26]

Anderson plays very strong defense on the inside for the Cavaliers... really not a big difference between Anderson and Noah in that regard.  Yes, early in his career Anderson flopped all the time and has since continued to carry that tag, but if you actually take time and watch his game, his defense has truly become impressive.  there's a reason why he was in the running for defensive player of the year this past season.

Hinrich had his moments in that series, but he didn't exactly put up THAT great of numbers... Rose did.  The Cavaliers defense needs to be improved on the wings.  If your wings can guard that allows your big defenders to be in better position as well and pick up their defense.  Jamison sucks on D... look at what KG did to him, lol.

CP3 isn't coming to CLE, though I'd LOVE it is an understatement, lol.

Well said, and that's basically my railing-point against Noah... he's good, but a guy like Varejao is going to provide a similar game... rebounding, disrupting, good defense, and being tall.  I suppose the difference is still that Noah can be a starting 5, and Varejao hasn't had to do that yet.   But they're not miles off. 

Basically, I just think the "Bulls are much better defensively" thing is BS.  The Cavs allowed 4 fewer points per game last year  (95-99).  And if Mike Brown doesn't crap his pants in the Boston series and start sitting the players that gave him an advantage over Boston (Varejao and Hickson: the 'be less old and more athletic' lineup, rather than the Shaq-centric frontcourt that allowed Rondo run up and down AND the offense to stagnate) they still would have come out of that series.  Or it would have been much closer. 

In the end, I still do agree that Chicago is the place where the sole addition of LeBron makes them instant contenders.  Chicago + LeBron is better than Cleveland + LeBron.  But its because of Derrick Rose, by FAR the best player he would have played with, not Joakim Noah, Brad Miller, and Taj Gibson. 

If you hadn't realized, I hate Shaq.  He's been team cancer ever since Phoenix.  He still puts up decent numbers but he can hardly jog the floor, can't score outside of 2 feet, and can't defend either end of a pick and roll. 

[HoopsMalone]

Rose is the difference, but the Bulls front line is adequate to defend some of the other top players in the league.  Noah is a lot better than Anderson, and with a big athletic player like James joining the Bulls, their defense would be much improved. 

[GoldenWarrior]

Rose is the difference, but the Bulls front line is adequate to defend some of the other top players in the league.  Noah is a lot better than Anderson, and with a big athletic player like James joining the Bulls, their defense would be much improved. 

"rose is the difference" +1 - he makes CHI a better basketball option for LBJ than CLE

"Noah is a lot better than Anderson" -1 - I just disagree.  If you actually look at them both, it's not that drastic of a difference really at all

"By adding LBJ, CHI's defense would be much improved" Of course, adding him to anyone's roster instantly improves their defense.

[HoopsMalone]

Noah Playoffs:  14.8 pts 13 Rebs
Varejao Playoffs:  5.7 pts 6.5 rebs
*note this is partly head to head

Noah plays about 10 mins more granted.

Noah Regular Season:  10.7 pts 11.0 rebs
Varejao Regular Season:  8.6 pts 7.6 rebs

Varejao- 28 years old, 5 more years of consistency, but probably hit his ceiling
Noah- 25 years old, has not hit his ceiling.  Plenty of productive years ahead.

Varejao might get more minutes without Shaq, but he has had time to show what he has.  Noah is better statistically and is much, much more likely to improve based on his age and the signs he has showed in the playoffs. 

Maybe it depends how you define "a lot better" when comparing Noah and Varejao, but there is a lot more to be excited about with Noah on the court.  Plus he will get in Lebron's face if Lebron starts dancing when his team wins regular season games.  Lebron might need a teammate like that.  Bill Cartwright did that for MJ early on.