Oso planning to go pro
I’m not over estimating, much like Hards alluded to, I’m trying to figure out what a word with a vaccine, even early stages or initial roll outs would look like for people and their risk management.
Yep, that's what the "2.5 years to rollout a vaccine" was referring to. That's after the vaccine was created and in production. Getting a vaccination machinations in place worldwide is quite the ordeal. The timeline to the vaccine is probably 6 months to a year, but we may have a long time to go with social distancing and mask wearing guidelines.
Understood. As I mention, if this is indeed the case, the economic disaster is only beginning.
The economic disaster is going to get worse before it gets better. With the virus not being managed well, there will continue to be higher unemployment and lower levels of economic activity.Furthermore, while K-12 and higher education institutions WANT to start in person, it is looking increasingly unlikely that many districts will last through the fall in person. I think the psychological impact of this will be huge. And will significantly impact the holiday season.
Treatments are just as important. Treatments that decrease deaths and need for ventilators and need for hospitalization in combination with a vaccine will be the key. Lots of good info on treatments starting to come out.
Looks like the front-runner vaccines will include a few days of feeling pretty crappy. Not the worst trade-off, but might deter folks too (ignore the headline, it's a fairly balanced writeup):https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-vaccines-with-minor-side-effects-could-still-be-pretty-bad/
I would be cautious with running with these anti-body studies from what I have read - at least extrapolate it to 'how long immunity lasts'. The answer from what I gather is that no one knows yet and the fact that anti-bodies decay does not answer that question yet...despite many headlines trying to take it there.
For those possibly interested in getting in on a trial. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/clinical-trials/vaccine-research-center-clinical-studiesSign up. I would possibly consider it, if I knew I would get the vaccine and not a placebo.
Pfizer hopes to get emergency approval by Octoberhttps://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/07/22/coronavirus-covid-19-and-vaccines-trump-masks-and-ex-cdc-director/5484636002/"Pfizer and BioNTech announced a deal with the federal government for 100 million doses of their vaccine candidate once the companies obtain approval or emergency use authorization from U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Americans will receive the vaccine for free, the firms said. If the ongoing studies are successful, Pfizer and BioNTech expect to be ready to seek Emergency Use Authorization or some form of regulatory approval as early as October."
This seems to fall clearly into what Rocky was calling out earlier. It would be interesting analysis to find out if rushed approval results in more immunizations over a 6-9 month period vs. getting the 30K plus through a phase 3 trial and then starting.
Hey fortgetful, what is the status of your friend who was working on creating antibodies in volume?