Kolek planning to go pro
I've only heard the herd immunity 'argument' from people that aren't scientifically literate. I've seen a few estimates about what % of the population has been infected so far and no country is close to herd immunity, even if getting sick meant that you would be immune forever. With COVID's R0 at a currently estimated ~5.5, we would need 85% of the population to become immune before cases stop dropping on their own (assuming no treatment and no vaccine, which is where we'll be for the next 6+ months).This isn't the best source for % of each country's population infected, but it's easy to read and it's in the ballpark of what I've read elsewhere.
I agree with your judgment, but I heard it as recently as this weekend from a state leader in the south. So a not small percent of people think having the young people get the disease is a 'good thing'.
I'm late to the game here, but that herd immunity graph contrasted against the dashboard directly above it is wild. The UK has a population of 66.65 million. If estimates put contracting the virus at 25% (to use the closest round number) that would be 16,662,500 cases. And per the dashboard, the UK has had 309,456 confirmed cases as of this post. That would mean that 1.9% of cases are ever confirmed. Doing that same math for the US at 5% of the population of a little over 328 million having contracted would be 16,410,000 cases and a confirmation rate of 14.8%. I know I'm doing some rounding with the contraction percentages, but is the US doing that much better a job testing than the UK? And using the death numbers, are you really 3x more likely to die after contracting covid in the US vs the UK? Something seems off, those are some dramatic disparities.
And there has been limited research on immunity and how long it lasts.If it only lasts a few months.......
And there is some evidence that it does only last a couple months. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6And this case of a woman getting it twice 12-weeks apart. https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/dallas-woman-battling-coronavirus-again/2389265/
Public health experts in the U.K. and Australia have expressed alarm at the move by the U.S. to purchase almost the entire global supply of a drug to treat the coronavirus.Remdesivir, made by Gilead was originally trialled during the Ebola epidemic and is the first drug that has been approved by licensing authorities in the U.S. to treat COVID-19 after trials showed that it helped some recover from the disease more quickly.The Trump administration has purchased more than 500,000 doses, which is all of Gilead's production of the drug for this month and 90 percent of its projected supply for August and September. It is made under patent to Gilead, at a cost of around $3,200 per treatment of six doses for richer countries
Moderna has never successfully brought a single product to market, right? Doesn't inspire confidence.
Correct. Doesn't mean this won't be the one, but it certainly gives me pause.My biggest concern is that the US seems to have put all its eggs on a few baskets...but specifically not the two Chinese vaccine candidates that I think are most promising.
From what I have read this isn’t this case. There are plenty in the race and the structure behind some of the Chinese vaccines are replicated by some American (And maybe Uk or eu) companies. The Comment I heard was they will either all work or they all won’t.
https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunityIf true .. #EndTimes...
Hm.. I don't doubt the storyis true, but it is possible his first positive test result was a false positive (mild cough, sore throat) and he's actually got covid-19 now.
I don’t understand why there isn’t more research on this. Maybe it is just that what you are saying is the accepted scenario. And hopefully accurate.