Team rankings lowered us to 32% chance of bid - need 20 Wins

[auburnmarquette]

I wrote in cracked sidewalks early this year that we needed 20 Wins by selection sunday to be invited. I didn't realize at the time that www.teamrankings.com calculates that for each team and they still have the same conclusion. The give us a 55% chance if we win 20 total and a 24% chance if we get to 19 wins. (Last year I calculated that we needed 23 wins).

Looking at it another way, they gave us a 52.4% chance of making the tournament before the game yesterday, then dropped us to 32.% after the loss, so it's tough. Obviously if we win the last two regular season we get a bye so need to beat a better team to add a win in the big east tourney. If we split the final two maybe we get DePaul opening night (I haven't done the match of big east seeding scenarios) and need to beat them plus one I. The big east.

I will keep hoping the fanfare around the nova win and the surge of vandy into the tournament sneaks us in if we finish with 19 wins, but more likely it takes 20.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

0% chance a 10-8 BE doesn't make the dance this year.  Zero. The only scenario I could see if perhaps 10-8 somehow gets us the 7 seed, and we lose to DePaul in the first round of the BET. But I don't see any realistic scenario that we go 10-8 and get the 7 seed.  That would mean that X beats Butler today. Seton Hall wins out against Gtown and @ Butler. Plus if we beat Creighton and X (which we'd need to get to 10-8), we'd be 4-0 against those teams making that tie breaker near impossible to lose.

I think if we go 1-1 with a first round BET exit, we have about a 40% chance of bid.  1-1 with 1 BET win and we're in (assuming that win isn't over DePaul).  We really do need to avoid the 7 seed as playing DePaul is going to hurt our RPI no matter what.

I will ask again, because no one who has this stance has really given a good answer.  Who in the lords name are they going to take instead?  Once you get down to those last 4 teams, our resume matches up so much better than the competition.  No 15 loss team has ever gotten an at large - that is going to eliminate a good chunk of our competition - Clemson, Vandy, Wake, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Indiana, K State, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, Alabama..I could go on for a while longer.  Not to mention that outside of RPI, we have more top 50 wins, a better signature win, better Kenpom, better Sagrin, better BPI, better strength of record than nearly all of the teams around the bubble.

There are very few potential bid stealers out there.  I don't think teams like UNC-Wilmington, Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UT Arlington, Illinois State, Monmouth and Valpo have realistic chances to get at larges if they don't win their conference tourneys. All of those leagues are 1 bid leagues, outside of perhaps the MVC with Illinois State and Wichita State. Illinois State may have a shot at an at large, but I doubt they get it.  The risk this year is going to be bid stealers from major conferences.  We need teams that are locks to win their conference tournaments.  A scenario that would work against a 9-9 Marquette team making Dayton is a team from the ACC (NC State, Clemson, Pitt), B10 (Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State), B12 (Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma), P12 (pretty much anybody not named Arizona, UCLA or Oregon), SEC (Mississippi State, Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M, etc,), American (UCONN, Memphis, Temple), and A10 (anyone not named VCU and Dayton) that isn't getting an at large to make a run and win their conference tournament.  If a few of those happen, those last few spots are going to be harder to come by.  But realistically I don't see more than 1-2 of those occurring, but you never know.

If we win our last 2 games, we're making the tourney.  If we win 1/2, all of the data out there suggests that we still have a very good shot of playing in Dayton in the First Four, regardless of what happens at MSG. 

Signed,

Someone who has spent far too much time analyzing this bubble 

[DUNKS45]

Great job there, I agree completely.

[auburnmarquette]

Yes, great analysis. As you indicate though, I'm not as concerned on bubble teams passing us as on a few unexpected tourney champs stealing spot. If both palm and lunardi have us as the 3rd from last team, then that means 3 auto bids to teams that would not have gotten at at-large (not counting the 1 bid conferences of course) and we got from 3rd to last in to last team out.

[Johnny B]

The seniors coaches and hell the fans need a tourney. nobody wants the fricken NIT. We need a bid. it will be a disaster to have a had a bid in our hands and piss it away.

[Jay Bee]

Yeah... from where we sit and not related to the # of wins by themselves... 19 wins and we have a chance. 20 wins and I'm feeling pretty good. 21, #donedeal.

Nonetheless, I'll be nervous and thinking about this nonstop for the next two weeks.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yes, great analysis. As you indicate though, I'm not as concerned on bubble teams passing us as on a few unexpected tourney champs stealing spot. If both palm and lunardi have us as the 3rd from last team, then that means 3 auto bids to teams that would not have gotten at at-large (not counting the 1 bid conferences of course) and we got from 3rd to last in to last team out.

Yah, for sure. But outside of the A10, AAC or SEC, I don't really see any of the other larger conference tournaments being won by a surprise team. Maybe I could see it in the wide open B10. I suspect 1-2 bids will be stolen that way, but I'd be pretty shocked if it was more. But again, ya never know. Due to the general weaknesses of the mid major confences, bubble teams are in better shape this year than most other seasons.

[muguru]

Yah, for sure. But outside of the A10, AAC or SEC, I don't really see any of the other larger conference tournaments being won by a surprise team. Maybe I could see it in the wide open B10. I suspect 1-2 bids will be stolen that way, but I'd be pretty shocked if it was more. But again, ya never know. Due to the general weaknesses of the mid major confences, bubble teams are in better shape this year than most other seasons.

Heck, the way the BE has been this year, I don't think we could totally discount someone like a Georgetown, or a Providence(not convinced they are safely in at this point, if they lose to DePaul again, how can they justify it, three sub 200 losses), or even an SJU winning it on their home floor.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yeah... from where we sit and not related to the # of wins by themselves... 19 wins and we have a chance. 20 wins and I'm feeling pretty good. 21, #donedeal.

Nonetheless, I'll be nervous and thinking about this nonstop for the next two weeks.

JB, just curious - you honestly think that if we win these next two games against Xavier and Creighton, but then drop our first game in the Big East tournament to a Xavier, Creighton, Providence or Seton Hall that there's a real chance we get left out at 19-12 (10-8)? I just don't see it all else considered.

Regarding your second point, I'll be definitely be nervous up until the bracket is released with anything short of 3 more wins, but in the above scenario I'd be pretty confident.

[real chili 83]

John,

If nothing else, thank you for your logical, ray of hope post.  So sick of Glasses, Guru, Sand, PF, named after a mall, etc.  Not sure why mods haven't banned.

JJJJ, Well written.  You need to join JB and me for a brew. 

Go Warriors!

[79Warrior]

JB, just curious - you honestly think that if we win these next two games against Xavier and Creighton, but then drop our first game in the Big East tournament to a Xavier, Creighton, Providence or Seton Hall that there's a real chance we get left out at 19-12 (10-8)? I just don't see it all else considered.

Regarding your second point, I'll be definitely be nervous up until the bracket is released with anything short of 3 more wins, but in the above scenario I'd be pretty confident.

Nothing about this team gives me the confidence we win 1of the next 2, never mind both. My guess is we are NIT bound. Crushing loss @ Providence on many levels.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Nothing about this team gives me the confidence we win 1of the next 2, never mind both. My guess is we are NIT bound. Crushing loss @ Providence on many levels.

That wasn't the question.

[SoCalEagle]

John,

If nothing else, thank you for your logical, ray of hope post.  So sick of Glasses, Guru, Sand, PF, named after a mall, etc.  Not sure why mods haven't banned.

JJJJ, Well written.  You need to join JB and me for a brew. 

Go Warriors!

Hey RC 83, don't forget about me out here on the left coast. I'm with all the level headed Warrior fans who think we still have a pretty decent shot at making it. Let's play some good ball from here forward and see how this thing shakes out.

SCE

[Jay Bee]

JB, just curious - you honestly think that if we win these next two games against Xavier and Creighton, but then drop our first game in the Big East tournament to a Xavier, Creighton, Providence or Seton Hall that there's a real chance we get left out at 19-12 (10-8)? I just don't see it all else considered.

Regarding your second point, I'll be definitely be nervous up until the bracket is released with anything short of 3 more wins, but in the above scenario I'd be pretty confident.

Nope. For some reason I had us at 18 wins already. Wow. Scale those back one each. 1 - got a chance. 2- feeling good, but still a little nervous. 3 - #donedeal