Sweden?

[MUBurrow]

The Swedish government could invade Russia and 80 percent of the population would support it. Trust and support for big government is a quintessential characteristic of the Swedes.
The American right's sudden embrace of a socialist European government has been something to behold.
Pandemics make for strange bedfellows.

I had started typing a response in this thread a day or two ago, but then deleted it because I hadn't thought it through - but in part, it asked if anyone has read a nice summary of the current status of Swedish politics that they could pass along?  In this thread, we're sort of operating on a very basic understanding of democratic socialism as a stand-in.  But has Swedish politics seen the same right turn as in the US, UK and much of western Europe?  If so, that would seem to explain a lot.  In that lens, we're seeing an alternative stragegy being employed by a government that would be more influenced by libertarian, right-leaning principles, bringing resources to bear that have been accumulated through decades building a social safety net. 

So long as that government is operating in good faith for what it thinks is best for its citizens (I've seen no reason to think they're not) I think that would be as good a plan as any.  Yes the death rates are higher right now, but are the hospitals overrun?  If not, it seems to me that anyone that thinks we are in for spikes and relapses in the US this summer and autumn should be bullish on Sweden's strategy.

[tower912]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-sweden-open-no-lockdown-effects-result-anders-tengell-a9495806.html


Even Sweden's leading epidemiologist is saying 'Sweden?'

[tower912]

Why not compare to the Canadian response?

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/4/21242750/coronavirus-covid-19-united-states-canada-trump-trudeau

[WarriorDad]

Why not compare to the Canadian response?

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/4/21242750/coronavirus-covid-19-united-states-canada-trump-trudeau

Feels like population density is being greatly understated in that article.  California has more population than all of Canada.  Population density (see NYC) can be a big problem for this disease.  Canada is the 228th most densely populated country / territory in the world.  Near the bottom. About 4 people per Kilometer squared where the USA has 9X that amount in the same geographical comparison.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Feels like population density is being greatly understated in that article.  California has more population than all of Canada.  Population density (see NYC) can be a big problem for this disease.  Canada is the 228th most densely populated country / territory in the world.  Near the bottom. About 4 people per Kilometer squared where the USA has 9X that amount in the same geographical comparison.

Covid Cases:

Toronto: 6,278
Montreal:  16,606
Vancouver: 2,760

NYC: 170,534

Yes, NYC is more dense than those three cities, but if you think that's the only difference, you're nuts.

[WarriorDad]

Covid Cases:

Toronto: 6,278
Montreal:  16,606
Vancouver: 2,760

NYC: 170,534

Yes, NYC is more dense than those three cities, but if you think that's the only difference, you're nuts.

There are a number of differences, but that is one important one.

NYC has a pop density of 27K per square mile. 

Montreal is about 10K per square mile
Toronto is 11K
Vancouver 14K

There is no comparison to what NYC has and that is where most of our cases are.

The number of inbound population from tourists and business also pales in comparison.  They had a different problem to deal with and the author doesn’t spend one minute on those important points.

I read Vox quite a bit, but I also know they are coming from the far left. 

[Pakuni]

Feels like population density is being greatly understated in that article.  California has more population than all of Canada.  Population density (see NYC) can be a big problem for this disease.  Canada is the 228th most densely populated country / territory in the world.  Near the bottom. About 4 people per Kilometer squared where the USA has 9X that amount in the same geographical comparison.

Toronto has about the same population density as Philadelphia, and less than half the cases
Vancouver has roughly the same population density as Boston, and a quarter as many cases.

Population density matters in the spread of any virus, but there's a lot more to the differences between the two countries; experiences with COVID-19 than density.

[WarriorDad]

Toronto has about the same population density as Philadelphia, and less than half the cases
Vancouver has roughly the same population density as Boston, and a quarter as many cases.

Population density matters in the spread of any virus, but there's a lot more to the differences between the two countries; experiences with COVID-19 than density.

Yes, there is more to it.  Wish the article at least acknowledged that population density matters. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Deaths per 1M:

Sweden  301
Denmark  87
Finland  46
Norway 40

[tower912]

What about Brazil?

[WarriorDad]

Deaths per 1M:

Sweden  301
Denmark  87
Finland  46
Norway 40

Can I help fill in some missing information?  The bolded countries also took a different stance than Sweden.  The same points keep coming up.  No one knows at this point in time if their decision was correct or not.  If it is, they should have more deaths earlier in the cycle as they try for herd immunity.  If they are wrong, then some people died unnecessarily by polices that were lax.


Belgium 726
Spain 558
Italy 495
UK 451
France 398
Netherlands 309
Sweden  301

USA 232
Switzerland 209
Canada 117
Denmark  87
Finland  46
Norway 40

[MarquetteDano]

Can I help fill in some missing information?  The bolded countries also took a different stance than Sweden.  The same points keep coming up.  No one knows at this point in time if their decision was correct or not.  If it is, they should have more deaths earlier in the cycle as they try for herd immunity.  If they are wrong, then some people died unnecessarily by polices that were lax.


Belgium 726
Spain 558
Italy 495
UK 451
France 398
Netherlands 309
Sweden  301

USA 232
Switzerland 209
Canada 117
Denmark  87
Finland  46
Norway 40

So earlier you stated Australia was a poor comparison for New Zealand (which is wrong btw) but now you are comparing  Spain with Sweden?

[WarriorDad]

So earlier you stated Australia was a poor comparison for New Zealand (which is wrong btw) but now you are comparing  Spain with Sweden?

I don't think I am which is why so many other countries were added, many of them as dissimilar as possible. Canada is nothing like Spain or Belgium. The deaths per 1/Mil at least pulls us out of the absolute numbers game that some are playing to rile people up, but each country is different for a variety of reasons (population density, island nation, borders, health care, policies, tourism access points, age of citizenry, and a host of others.

What I don't understand is educated people know Sweden's choice would mean pulling deaths up in the time cycle continue to make a false comparative analysis.  That's Sweden's strategy, to pull contamination in the life cycle.  Comparing to other Nordic countries or any country from the current timeline doesn't make much sense.  They are still in the second inning of this.  A year from now if they have or have not achieved herd immunity, then we can all make a better decision on their choice.  Personally, I'm glad someone had the guts to try it. Even if they fail, the world is a better place knowing alternatives were tried.  We all learn from it for the future.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Can I help fill in some missing information?  The bolded countries also took a different stance than Sweden.  The same points keep coming up.  No one knows at this point in time if their decision was correct or not.  If it is, they should have more deaths earlier in the cycle as they try for herd immunity.  If they are wrong, then some people died unnecessarily by polices that were lax.


Belgium 726
Spain 558
Italy 495
UK 451
France 398
Netherlands 309
Sweden  301

USA 232
Switzerland 209
Canada 117
Denmark  87
Finland  46
Norway 40

Hey Cheeks!

Just a reminder that YOU said that the best countries to compare to Sweden were Norway, Denmark and Finland!!!

You can go back to your goalpost shifting now.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Comparing to other Nordic countries or any country from the current timeline doesn't make much sense. 

Uh....

Swedish population is an excellent comparison against other Scandinavian nations and even some other European nations.

Finland was controlled by Sweden for more than 500 years which is why there are so many cultural similarities.

Could you at least TRY to be intellectually consistent? 

[Hards Alumni]

Uh....


Could you at least TRY to be intellectually consistent?

i fix dis

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

(You're welcome.)

[WarriorDad]

Uh....


Could you at least TRY to be intellectually consistent?

Population, yes, but that doesn’t cover all of it.  Population density, size of country, island vs land locked, ports of entry, centralized govt vs provincial, and so many others.  Even comparing pure population sizes has some holes.  Average age, men to women ratio, comobidities, race, economic status, pregnancy.

We can compare populations and make some great comparisons, but do you think it ends there without the other variables?  I do not.  Too simple to compare these countries to widely, but on a narrow scope there are some similarities in some areas.  How is that intellectually inconsistent? 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

If only Sweden had had the foresight to clone itself at the beginning of this.

What a troll.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Population, yes, but that doesn’t cover all of it.  Population density, size of country, island vs land locked, ports of entry, centralized govt vs provincial, and so many others.  Even comparing pure population sizes has some holes.  Average age, men to women ratio, comobidities, race, economic status, pregnancy.

We can compare populations and make some great comparisons, but do you think it ends there without the other variables?  I do not.  Too simple to compare these countries to widely, but on a narrow scope there are some similarities in some areas.  How is that intellectually inconsistent? 

The point is you used nordic as a comparison first.  It was your idea.  And now that the numbers make your "Sweden has it right" argument look dumb, you now are arguing the comparison was bad.

Shifting goalposts at its finest.

[pbiflyer]

Uh....


Could you at least TRY to be intellectual?

FIFY

[WarriorDad]

The point is you used nordic as a comparison first.  It was your idea.  And now that the numbers make your "Sweden has it right" argument look dumb, you now are arguing the comparison was bad.

Shifting goalposts at its finest.

Where have I said Sweden has it right?  How many times has my position been that I do not know if they have it right, but glad they took a chance to try something different.  Ultimately, none of us knows if they are right at this time.  Too many factors in play.

If you can find where I said they have it right please share with all of us. 

[Lennys Tap]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds

Will Sweden lead the way out of this?

[MarquetteDano]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds

Will Sweden lead the way out of this?

No idea if Sweden's technique will be better from a health perspective in the long-run.  One thing I find interesting though is I figured Sweden's approach would lead to a much better economy than their neighbors,  given that things are more opened up.

However,  when I look at the GDP forecasts for Sweden versus other Nordic countries it doesn't look much better at all.  Am I looking in the wrong areas?  All of the forecasts show about the same GDP hit across Finland,  Norway, and Denmark.

[Pakuni]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds

Will Sweden lead the way out of this?

Interesting read, but a few passages struck me as speculative at best and, in some instances, plainly wrong.
To wit:

"Sweden’s response has not been perfect, but it has succeeded in bolstering immunity among the young and the healthy"

How could they possibly know this?

"Whether or not they have openly embraced the Swedish approach, many other countries are now trying to emulate aspects of it. Both Denmark and Finland have reopened schools for young children. Germany is allowing small shops to reopen. Italy will soon reopen parks, and France has a plan to allow some nonessential businesses to reopen, including farmers’ markets and small museums, as well as schools and daycare centers."

No, no, no. These countries aren't emulating the Swedish approach. They're adhering to their own approach, which was to lock down things temporarily to ease the spread and then eventually phase in a reopening. This was the plan all along.

"Lockdowns are simply not sustainable for the amount of time that it will likely take to develop a vaccine."

I'm unaware of any country or state that plans a lockdown until the development of a vaccine. Even the most restrictive of states - Illinois, Cali, New York - all have plans in place to begin easing restrictions in the coming weeks, and certainly well before the development of a vaccine.

"Managing the path to herd immunity means, above all, protecting the vulnerable. Sweden learned that the hard way, but the situation there is now under control."

So under control the government announced a new plan just yesterday to try to protect the vulnerable, recognizing that what they had been doing in that regard was a failure.